Can't we just enjoy what we have?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Enough about Rocket Pig. More dogs please.

Now introducing your new starting second baseman for the 2013 Minnesota Twins...

 

[stringer bell]

Reality: This is a season that the Twins are having the second worst record in the AL (and are a couple games over the team with the worst record) after a season that they had the worst record.

 

Shall we be happy about it and start talking about how great this team is? There are individual positive things, but overall, the last 2 seasons are there with the late 90s Twins teams....

 

Sad but REAL.

 

And if anyone is happy with the way the Twins have been performing this season, he/she is probably a White Sox fan or something

 

Not a matter of glass half full or half empty. The glass is on the floor shuttered in a million pieces...

The Twins are not going to contend in 2012. They still have one of the worst records and one of the worst run differentials in baseball, but I don't think they are that far away from being a contender. I don't think the product is "shattered" by any means. It is entirely within the realm for this club to play .500 baseball the rest of the year and come out with mid-70s wins and that is a major improvement from 2011 when they were lucky to win 63 and avoid 100 losses. Someone pointed out that the '11 Twins actually had a better run than any the '12 Twins have put together, but the mirage was anything good produced by that club. Today's Twins are hamstrung by bad starting pitching, but the lineup is pretty good, the bullpen is good (and much improved) and the defense is much better and plays much better fundamentally.

 

There still is plenty to complain about. A minor league system that has stopped producing standout players, a front office that has sold low on a number of players and has seemed intent on cutting payroll above winning, a medical staff that has seemed clueless, announcers who praise first inning bunts and speak in hackneyed cliches, pitchers who pitch to contact because they don't have enough stuff to strike hitters out and there's more, of course.

 

The Twins have some talent. They have "found" some productive players this year and if they are shrewd and lucky enough to do the same next year, especially starting pitchers, they can compete in the Central. Sure, they're lucky they aren't in the East or West and there still would be that playoff problem to get over, but I think the club is moving in the right direction and they could suprise as soon as next year.

[BrentMpls]

I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value. Examples:

 

Deduno is doing well.....so let's talk about how the twins pitching staff is probably going to screw him up

 

Willingham is hitting more homers than anyone ever in Target Field and is a crowd fave and a clutch hitter.....we better trade him now.

 

Scott Diamond has been the most stable and reliable starter we have, and has done a fantastic job this year....but he's still at best a poor man's someone or other and won't really turn out to be great

 

Mourneau is finally returning to pre-concussion form, and is doing well, and is strating to improve against lefties.....let's trade him as soon as possible

 

Mastroianni is doing exactly what we want a 4th OF/bench guy doing, handling spot starts, stealing like crazy, making clutch hits when nesc.....so let's move him to 2b

 

Revere is making highlight reel catches constantly, has a 20 game hit streak, within a week will be in the top 5 for BA, and is second in the AL in SB. He's 23 and hasn't even played a full season at the major league level......so let's trade him immediately because he'll never be a legit starter

 

 

 

What we actually have is a team that started out really, REALLY awful, made some significant, if not high-profile, lineup changes, altered their game plans (remember at the beginning of the year how Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmelee were going to see time in RF?) and have seen considerable improvement. They aren't making the playoffs this year, but they may finish out of the cellar. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could compete for a playoff spot next year if they add a few more pieces.

 

So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?

The epic collapse in quality the teams performance has taken deserves analysis.

 

All of the things deserve to be looked at to see what the future might hold for them, Deduno is doing well because he lacks control and nobody knows where it will land - how long can that last? Willingham is doing great offensively, but what would happen if he could be traded, and what benefit is there to having a guy like that if the rest of the team isn't up to snuff? Questions like that should be asked and analyzed, wouldn't you agree?

[Nick Nelson]

I'm not suggesting that all of these guys are going to suck. But two years ago we were saying the same things about Valencia that we are about Plouffe. Same with Delmon. Same with Liriano. In 2011 we looked mighty stupid for assuming all those out-of-the-norm career spikes were going to continue.

So your point is that since players who've broken out have regressed in the past, we should simply expect it with this new crop and thus abandon any notion of building a contender around them? Not sure how you can try to couch that as anything other than blatant pessimism.

 

Personally, I don't see any reason to believe the guys that are flourishing now cannot continue to do so going forward. Just because breakout performances are unexpected doesn't make them flukish or unsustainable. Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in the minors. Willingham probably won't repeat his performance from this year but even if he falls back to career norms he's a great hitter. None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano.

 

Right now, the Twins have a very good offense going and all the major contributors are locked in beyond this year, with enough depth to trade from a few areas of strength. I choose to view that as a good thing.

[TheLeviathan]

Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young.

So Delmon is irrelevant even though he is a first rounder who had breakout 2010.but Plouffe hitting homeruns at a Ruthian pace for a month is perfectly reasonable to expect because he is a former first rounder?

 

There are certainly positives to enjoy and some of them will likely continue but being realistic isn't being negative. It is mighty polly-annish to believe we will trade a strength for a weaknezs and still maintain the strength, have everyone above their career norms continue as is, have youngsters again next year breakout, and have no one unexpectedly regress. I choose to be a realist and think we are better off building towards the future than that polly-anna take. It may come through, but I wouldn't bet on it. Pretty simple idea, no need to get huffy.

[Nick Nelson]

So Delmon is irrelevant even though he is a first rounder who had breakout 2010.but Plouffe hitting homeruns at a Ruthian pace for a month is perfectly reasonable to expect because he is a former first rounder?

Young's "breakout year" occurred after he had been playing regularly in the majors for more than three full seasons. Plouffe's came after 100 MLB games. The two players are not in any way similar, so I'm not sure why you're comparing them. Can I compare Plouffe to Jose Bautista or does that not count since he plays for a different team?

 

If your point is that some players have breakout years and then hit a wall, well yes, you're correct. That doesn't mean you plan around it.

 

If you made a decent argument for why we should expect any of these guys to drop off dramatically that doesn't involve comparing them to totally unrelated players, I'll hear it out. But picking out a worst-case scenario to use as a comparison doesn't make you a realist, it makes you a pessimist. No need to hide from it.

[stringer bell]

The Twins parting with both Span and Morneau would struggle to compete next year.

It would be gambling big-time to trade both Span and Morneau. The Twins, though, do have a history (and have stated it many times) that they prefer to have a guy do so well in the minors to force their way into the major league lineup. That is precisely what Parmelee is doing. Trading Morneau would also have the benefit of freeing up salary, which could be used for a quality pitcher.

 

I view trading Span as both more likely and easier to absorb. Having both Revere and Span in the outfield is fine for outfield range, not so much for power and run production. Outfielders with plus defensive skills are on the horizon, so long-term Span shouldn't be missed.

[glunn]

I don't agree with the notion that anyone is obligated to be positive or negative here. Different people view the situation differently, and different people enjoy following baseball in general in different ways.

 

Some people are more interested on finding ways to enjoy the season. They tend to focus on positives and look for silver linings.

 

Others are more interested in figuring out what's wrong with the team and how to make it better. They tend to focus more on problem areas and looking back at how we got here.

 

There's tension between these 2 groups. The latter group tends to view the former as blind, cheerleading homers. To the former group, the latter are a bunch of Pissy Pauls.

 

But in the spirit of free expression as these forums are intended, we need to accept that there really isn't a correct approach to fanhood and tolerate these differences.

That was very well said, Jack. I would add that some people here, including me, enjoy and often agree with BOTH the positive AND negative posts.

[TheLeviathan]

Young's "breakout year" occurred after he had been playing regularly in the majors for more than three full seasons. Plouffe's came after 100 MLB games. The two players are not in any way similar, so I'm not sure why you're comparing them. Can I compare Plouffe to Jose Bautista or does that not count since he plays for a different team?

 

I'm comparing them because someone said "former first round picks" who "figure things out in their mid-twenties" and look like "long term impact players". Please explain to me how a 25 year old Delmon Young's 2010 is "irrelevant" given those qualifications?

 

This is some serious gymnastics Nick - pretty damn hard to think you're being rational on the subject when you're doing that. You set the qualifications, not me.

 

If you made a decent argument for why we should expect any of these guys to drop off dramatically that doesn't involve comparing them to totally unrelated players, I'll hear it out. But picking out a worst-case scenario to use as a comparison doesn't make you a realist, it makes you a pessimist. No need to hide from it.

 

Alright, now a charge to "prove a negative" - on a roll here. Um, I haven't even given you close to the worst case scenario. I've merely talked bout player production - I haven't mentioned injuries much at all. I haven't talked about Scott Diamond's great year, Morneau, Alex Burnett and Jared Burton, Denard Span, or Ryan Doumit. Again, my point is not that everything is going to go wrong, but to reinforce just how many things have gone right. People are focused on the awful pitching early on, but that awful staff shouldn't have been that big of a surprise.

 

I see a group of people so giddy that the team is competitive that they're ignoring their rational perspective. Personally, I'm pretty confident Diamond is going to be a good pitcher for us, that Morneau is back, and that Plouffe's post-Ruthian binge was even more encouraging than the homeruns (the guy was really approaching the ball well), that I was way wrong about Revere (he is a keeper), and that Mastro is going to be a nice addition. These are great things to build around long-term.

 

However, none of those things so color my perspective that I can't see a team playing above it's head. If we pour assets into next year that could be better poured into the long-term future - that bothers me. That doesn't make me a pessimist, I'm just trying to see the forest for the trees. And I really don't want to move what assets we have to help immediately that would be better served helping down the line.

[twinzgrl]

After reading all five pages of these comments, I don't really know what I want to say...but, I'll just say that I am a die hard Twins fan (since '61) and I really enjoy reading all the comments that are posted. I will never be as smart as most posters about WAR and stat stuff, but I do watch almost every game, and form my opinions based on what I see. I see a team that is much more watchable lately. I used to squirm whenever a fly ball went in Delmon's direction, now with the Hammer, I still squirm, but not quite as much. Hammer is an exciting player most of the time. Mauer is back, Morneau's not dizzy, Revere (wow) is doing it all, Diamond has been a revelation, Lexi is still being Lexi, Dozier I haven't figured out yet, Plouffe (jury still out)....won't mention Nishi. I did not expect Baker and Pavano to go completely down and out, and thought Liriano would be better than he was and that Hendriks would contribute. I did not see the total hot mess that has become our starting pitching staff coming as spring training began. We need at least one (preferably two) decent starters--where and how we get them I don't really care. Open up the vault, trade, whatever...Oh, I have a stuffed Build-A-Bear that wears a Twin's uniform named Joe Torii. He went into hibernation early last summer when the season tanked. Not as cute as your dogs, but still cute.

[StormJH1]

I'm comparing them because someone said "former first round picks" who "figure things out in their mid-twenties" and look like "long term impact players". Please explain to me how a 25 year old Delmon Young's 2010 is "irrelevant" given those qualifications?

 

I see a group of people so giddy that the team is competitive that they're ignoring their rational perspective. Personally, I'm pretty confident Diamond is going to be a good pitcher for us, that Morneau is back, and that Plouffe's post-Ruthian binge was even more encouraging than the homeruns (the guy was really approaching the ball well), that I was way wrong about Revere (he is a keeper), and that Mastro is going to be a nice addition. These are great things to build around long-term.

 

However, none of those things so color my perspective that I can't see a team playing above it's head. If we pour assets into next year that could be better poured into the long-term future - that bothers me. That doesn't make me a pessimist, I'm just trying to see the forest for the trees. And I really don't want to move what assets we have to help immediately that would be better served helping down the line.

Delmon isn't a great comparison to anyone because the reality is that if he were drafted by the Twins, there's no way he's an MLB regular at age 21. Also, Delmon wasn't just a 1st rounder, he was a #1 overall pick and had the profile of a potential star slugger (older brother with successful career, looked the part, etc.). The interesting about Delmon, though, is that while he did "hit" at every level, he had a fairly pedestrian OPS of .795 at AAA. Plouffe, by contrast, looked terrible at times in the minors and was thought to be a bust, much as was the case with Denard Span. Delmon is a good example of how you can't call something a breakout year until you see it in at least two seasons. Delmon hasn't even been a .700 OPS guy since that 2010 season. Plouffe may end up being legit, but we don't know that yet.

 

Aside from that, completely agree with your assessment about this team playing "over its head". Some people assume that can't be the case because the record is so bad, but think about it. A whole season with a mostly healthy Morneau, Mauer, and Span? Scott Diamond pitching like a #2 starter? A bullpen full of mop-up guys, Perkins, and Capps that hasn't completely imploded? Sure, SOME of those things could continue into the future, but it's doubtful that they all will. And there's no savior coming through the system until at least 2014, maybe beyond.

[TheLeviathan]

Delmon is a good example of how you can't call something a breakout year until you see it in at least two seasons. Delmon hasn't even been a .700 OPS guy since that 2010 season. Plouffe may end up being legit, but we don't know that yet.

Thanks for making my point! That's exactly what I'm trying to say! Plouffe was unexpected. Revere's degree of performance was unexpected. As were many other things, among them things you noted.

 

Nick was arguing that many of these "above our heads" performances were reasonable to expect on the basis that they were former first round talents. I simply used Delmon as an example of a player that fit a similar mold to his qualifications, who had a breakout year, and then reverted back to the previous Delmon. Nothing is stopping many of these other "unexpected" breakouts from doing the same.

[Nick Nelson]

Nick was arguing that we CAN count on many of these "above our heads" performances on the basis that they were former first round talents.

I actually never argued that we can "count" on anything – you never can in the game of baseball. But Plouffe and Revere are on a normal development curve – they struggled in their first 100 or so games in the majors then made adjustments and started hitting the way they had been in the minors. The problem with the Delmon comparison is that his breakout was sudden and isolated after he'd established himself as a lesser player. Plouffe has been steadily improving toward where he's at now and Revere, as I mentioned before, is doing exactly what he did at every level in the minors.

 

Yes, the offensive unit has had the very good fortune of being shockingly healthy all year. But I really don't see them as playing over their heads. This lineup always had the potential to be very good.

[TheLeviathan]

I actually never argued that we can "count" on anything – you never can in the game of baseball. But Plouffe and Revere are on a normal development curve – they struggled in their first 100 or so games in the majors then made adjustments and started hitting the way they had been in the minors. The problem with the Delmon comparison is that his breakout was sudden and isolated after he'd established himself as a lesser player. Plouffe has been steadily improving toward where he's at now and Revere, as I mentioned before, is doing exactly what he did at every level in the minors.

 

Yes, the offensive unit has had the very good fortune of being shockingly healthy all year. But I really don't see them as playing over their heads. This lineup always had the potential to be very good.

I edited my post, I realized I mischaracterized your point - what you said is that these things could have been expected. I'm not saying we can count on these failing either, but many of the things that are going well certainly fall into one of the three categories I listed. I'm not sure why that rubbed you so wrong, but something being "unexpected" just means it has a more dubious future.

 

To me it's very different when Joe Mauer as a young player comes up and is successful and when Denard Span goes from being a "meh" spec to a contributor. My faith going forward is much more strongly held to the guy with pedigree then. Many of the things going well for us this year do not have that kind of pedigree. When you combine that with the idea that we'll have to pull from that relative strength (offense) to repair the badly damaged weakness (pitching) - I don't see how anything better than spinning our wheels is possible.

 

Worse yet, we wouldn't be just spinning our wheels - we would have wasted assets for the longterm in the process. As for the future - I'm very encourage by Plouffe, Diamond, and Revere - very positive about those guys. Morneau probably moreso than most. I'm just not letting it delude me about 2013.

[PseudoSABR]

Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.

Bing? For shame.

[PseudoSABR]

Personally, I don't see any reason to believe the guys that are flourishing now cannot continue to do so going forward. Just because breakout performances are unexpected doesn't make them flukish or unsustainable. Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in the minors. Willingham probably won't repeat his performance from this year but even if he falls back to career norms he's a great hitter. None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano.

 

Right now, the Twins have a very good offense going and all the major contributors are locked in beyond this year, with enough depth to trade from a few areas of strength. I choose to view that as a good thing.

I agree with most of this. Whether the Twins actually acquire pitching assets for next year's team remains to be seen. It's just not like Terry Ryan to be bold. I can't imagine him signing a FA pitcher to a long term deal (needed to get anyone good) and trade for another ML-ready starting pitcher in the same off season.

[Nick Nelson]

I agree with most of this. Whether the Twins actually acquire pitching assets for next year's team remains to be seen. It's just not like Terry Ryan to be bold. I can't imagine him signing a FA pitcher to a long term deal (needed to get anyone good) and trade for another ML-ready starting pitcher in the same off season.

True, but we've never really seen him operate with a large payroll before. (He was heavily restricted in this past offseason.) If they're serious about keeping payroll where it's at, he'll have a good chunk of money to spend.

[Oxtung]

Making predictions about the Twins adding starting pitching via free agency by looking at the past is a flawed argument. The Twins have never been in their current situation. There are no parallels to draw from. Like Nick said assuming the payroll doesn't drop; terrible rotation, considerable money to spend, no long term commitments to SP, and little short or mid term help coming from the minors. This is truly new territory. Anyone making claims about what the Twins will or won't do have no leg to stand on.

 

The Twins sure better be making plans for next year (and still this year too) how to replace each and every player. That is a basic component of risk management. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. So should the Twins expect all of the "unexpected" players to regress? No. Should they have a plan in place to replace any player that regress like Casilla or is injured like Baker? Yes. That is basic business sense.

[jokin]

 

The Twins sure better be making plans for next year (and still this year too) how to replace each and every player. That is a basic component of risk management. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. So should the Twins expect all of the "unexpected" players to regress? No. Should they have a plan in place to replace any player that regress like Casilla or is injured like Baker? Yes. That is basic business sense.

 

All that you say here does make perfect basic business sense, and yet, the Twins have repeatedly demontrated, to put it kindly, ineptitude, with regards to business sense and ability to manage risk- throughout their enitre transition to a big-market payroll. Given TR's past performance, I predict that they are still smarting from all the horrible and costly mistakes, and choose to stay cautious and fiscally conservative. This is a rebuilding team, whether management admits it publicly or not.

[TheLeviathan]

Its also quite expensive and difficult to insure as many potential backslides as the Twins currently possess. And that is saying nothing for the costs to improve.

[striker_86]

True, but we've never really seen him operate with a large payroll before. (He was heavily restricted in this past offseason.) If they're serious about keeping payroll where it's at, he'll have a good chunk of money to spend.

how much money will we have to spend this off-season? Won't we be at 80 million going into the off-season?

[Nick Nelson]

Its also quite expensive and difficult to insure as many potential backslides as the Twins currently possess. And that is saying nothing for the costs to improve.

I guess I just don't see the downside in taking a shot next year. You're not hurting your long-term outlook by dealing Morneau or Span for a young pitcher, especially with the presence of Parmelee and good OF prospects. Any pitcher they sign in FA will presumably be a guy they think can help them for several years. If there are too many backslides or injuries, so be it, it's not like they're any worse off than they were before.

[Nick Nelson]

how much money will we have to spend this off-season? Won't we be at 80 million going into the off-season?

More like $75M. And if they trade Span or Morneau that number drops below $70M.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I just don't see the downside in taking a shot next year. You're not hurting your long-term outlook by dealing Morneau or Span for a young pitcher, especially with the presence of Parmelee and good OF prospects. Any pitcher they sign in FA will presumably be a guy they think can help them for several years. If there are too many backslides or injuries, so be it, it's not like they're any worse off than they were before.

Well, let's examine that - just what do you think they could get for Morneau or Span? If they add a young pitcher with that trade, sure, then I'd agree that it was a good move. To me, any move that doesn't improve the team for 2015 and beyond is a mistake, so just who do they land in these deals that both helps next year and for multiple years in the future?

 

I'll be honest, I don't see any players that fit that. I could see players that are helping in 2015 and beyond, but ones that both help now and that far in the future would seem to me to be a bit beyond the price range of a home-field dependent outfielder who isn't amazing and a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years. (And still has a hefty contract) I'm not trying to be difficult, I've looked at a lot of teams and I just don't see anything like what you're suggesting.

[CDog]

a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years.

I think you typo'd 3 when you meant 2.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bing? For shame.

As long as MS keeps Bing as the default search provider for IE, they'll have a place in the market. They're actually commanding more of the market than Yahoo! at this point (by a slim margin). I expect them to show slow and steady growth as MS get their **** together in the mobile space.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll be honest, I don't see any players that fit that. I could see players that are helping in 2015 and beyond, but ones that both help now and that far in the future would seem to me to be a bit beyond the price range of a home-field dependent outfielder who isn't amazing and a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years. (And still has a hefty contract) I'm not trying to be difficult, I've looked at a lot of teams and I just don't see anything like what you're suggesting.

How can you not see any players who fit that? This FA pitching class is the deepest I've seen in quite awhile. Jackson, Sanchez, Liriano, and Greinke are all hitting the market as 28 year olds. There are pitchers of almost every skill level coming to market this offseason. If the Twins are going to strike, I don't see a better season to do it than this one. With that many pitchers on the market, prices shouldn't be driven as high as they have been in previous seasons as five teams vie for the only two or three quality starters on the market.

 

For once, the Twins have a boatload of money to spend on outside talent. If they're not going to do it now, when should they do it? After the Pohlads have padded their bank accounts with $15m+ a season for 2-3 years?

[TheLeviathan]

Um....I specifically replied to Nick's trade suggestion. Care to respond to that instead?

 

I can see adding one key guy in FA and a flyer but that isnt what the conversation was.

[Nick Nelson]

Um....I specifically replied to Nick's trade suggestion. Care to respond to that instead?

 

I can see adding one key guy in FA and a flyer but that isnt what the conversation was.

If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

[diehardtwinsfan]

All that you say here does make perfect basic business sense, and yet, the Twins have repeatedly demontrated, to put it kindly, ineptitude, with regards to business sense and ability to manage risk- throughout their enitre transition to a big-market payroll. Given TR's past performance, I predict that they are still smarting from all the horrible and costly mistakes, and choose to stay cautious and fiscally conservative. This is a rebuilding team, whether management admits it publicly or not.

You are oversimplifiying this a bit. Even the Yankees with their 200M payroll don't have potential pitching replacements just stashed away for when their starters fail. Most teams have a few #5/AAAA guys in their AAA rotations that they can callup and be servicable for short periods of time. The problem with the Twins is that they have been relying on these types of individuals for far too long.

 

I don't see Terry Ryan handing outa 5 year deal, but I do see him trying to get a 3 year deal for a pitcher somewhere. This will eliminate the top tier pitchers, but I suspect that there will be some tier 2 pitchers who might sign for such.