Can't we just enjoy what we have?

[jokin]

If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

Are you referring to Leviathan........ or Terry Ryan?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

[Oxtung]

You are oversimplifiying this a bit. Even the Yankees with their 200M payroll don't have potential pitching replacements just stashed away for when their starters fail. Most teams have a few #5/AAAA guys in their AAA rotations that they can callup and be servicable for short periods of time. The problem with the Twins is that they have been relying on these types of individuals for far too long.

 

I don't see Terry Ryan handing outa 5 year deal, but I do see him trying to get a 3 year deal for a pitcher somewhere. This will eliminate the top tier pitchers, but I suspect that there will be some tier 2 pitchers who might sign for such.

Yeah the idea behind risk management, at least in this instance, is not that you have a one to one back up for any given player but rather that you have some minimal level of competency waiting in case your risky move fails.

 

Take an example from the Twins this year. They had no idea what they were going to get from Joe Mauer. Could he catch? DH? 1B? Miss half the year from injury? Mauer could do anything from win the MVP and play everyday at catcher to miss the entire season with bi-lateral leg weakness again. That's a lot of risk. To mitigate that risk the Twins went out and got Doumit. A player that could play catcher with atleast a minimal level of competency. Is Doumit an ideal every day catcher? No. Could Doumit catch 5 days a week if he had to? Yes. That is a good risk management move. It was an even better move because he not only provides risk management at catcher but also at a corner OF spot and DH.

 

As for the Twins starting rotation that turkey shoot can't be blamed on Ryan's risk management strategy. Nobody plans to lose all 5 opening day starters. There is just nothing you can do about that.

[PseudoSABR]

Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on. Really. I understand TR will have payroll flexibility and I'm eager to watch what happens; it's simply hard to imagine TR making multiple big piece moves during the offseason. As other's have suggested there's no precedence for Terry Ryan having 25 million to spend. It's still hard for me to imagine he'll spend it all...

 

Levi is right in that the Twins can't mitigate backsliding by players performing well this year, but as long as the Twins don't trade more than one of Span/Morneau, the minor league offers some real depth.

 

The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

[jokin]

Yeah the idea behind risk management, at least in this instance, is not that you have a one to one back up for any given player but rather that you have some minimal level of competency waiting in case your risky move fails.

 

Take an example from the Twins this year. They had no idea what they were going to get from Joe Mauer. Could he catch? DH? 1B? Miss half the year from injury? Mauer could do anything from win the MVP and play everyday at catcher to miss the entire season with bi-lateral leg weakness again. That's a lot of risk. To mitigate that risk the Twins went out and got Doumit. A player that could play catcher with atleast a minimal level of competency. Is Doumit an ideal every day catcher? No. Could Doumit catch 5 days a week if he had to? Yes. That is a good risk management move. It was an even better move because he not only provides risk management at catcher but also at a corner OF spot and DH.

 

As for the Twins starting rotation that turkey shoot can't be blamed on Ryan's risk management strategy. Nobody plans to lose all 5 opening day starters. There is just nothing you can do about that.

Part of risk management is preemptive initiative and that is as much on Ryan's predecessor, but that was my point, not specifically a bash on TR. They could have traded some of those arms when they carried higher value, they could have properly assessed true value before they committed the big dollars to unworthy and erratic arms. Admittedly, you can't forsee specific mechanical breakdowns and injuries, but patterns were already in place for virtually the entire staff, such that the Twins were in the risk management position akin to trying to draw 3 cards to hit an inside straight with their opening day SP staff.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Levi is right in that the Twins can't mitigate backsliding by players performing well this year, but as long as the Twins don't trade more than one of Span/Morneau, the minor league offers some real depth.

 

The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

I agree about Span/Morneau (and I hope it will be Morneau who is traded).

 

And I STRONGLY agree about competing in 2013 does not entail or imply in the slightest that 2014 and 2015 are sacrificed. I don't get that thinking at all. Even if the Twins surprised everyone and signed 2 $15+ million pitchers . . . those guys are going to be around in 2015. I would like to stomach 2013, and it doesn't seem totally bizarre to think that 85 wins or more is possible given that this is the pace the Twins have been on since they were 10-26.

[PseudoSABR]

it doesn't seem totally bizarre to think that 85 wins or more is possible given that this is the pace the Twins have been on since they were 10-26.

Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

[Nick Nelson]

Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

But you can't plan around bad luck. If **** happens, it happens. The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).

[TheLeviathan]

Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

RP - I've double checked my posts....they are in english. The issue is not can we get some low minors guys for Span and Morneau - the question is can they get players that can both help next year and years after that. Seriously - go back and read the first post you've responded to, things are getting wildly twisted by responses like this.

[TheLeviathan]

If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

 

This is a total copout - what teams have a "surplus" of pitching. Remember, you are suggesting that they can trade Morneau and Span for immediate help in 2013 that will also be around for 2014 and beyond. Just what teams are going to give up such a pitcher for Span or Morneau? (Especially given their flaws)

 

The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).

 

What's funny, is prior to 2010 you were being a "realist" and I was accusing you of being a "pessimist." It's essentially the same argument - you turned out to be right in part because you were being realistic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

 

RP - I've double checked my posts....they are in english. The issue is not can we get some low minors guys for Span and Morneau - the question is can they get players that can both help next year and years after that. Seriously - go back and read the first post you've responded to, things are getting wildly twisted by responses like this.

 

Testing, testing.

 

Voila.

[Yoshii]

Lets all turn into the FSN crew and talk about how great it is to be a Twins fan.

[Yoshii]

Its about doing the little things and giving people extra chances, cause they are such great guys to have in the club house.

[TheLeviathan]

Testing, testing.

 

Voila.

Had to make sure, it was getting a bit irritating to be honest! Look - I WANT them to be trading these guys for A ball or AA types that move along with this team. I don't see anyone trading for Span or Morneau with guys who are already established major league pitchers, or even major league ready. I want us to deal high on Willingham and Burton especially. I have no issues with them targeting a Marcum, Sanchez, or even Grienke type.

 

My issues are a few, and I don't think they're crazy: 1) MANY Twins are having really unexpected seasons that are either dramatic jumps in production from young players or vets that are healthier and more productive then in their recent past. While these things may indeed maintain, it's probably a better betthat some or many of them will not. If so, focusing our efforts on 2013 could be a serious mistake 2) The idea that we can deal Span or Morneau for young major-league ready pitching seems pretty doubtful and 3) That if we focus what assets we have in trade on 2013 and not 2015 that we stand to get less of a return - especially when our primary trade assets are not superstars or even all-star caliber players at this point.

[Oxtung]

Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on.

Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk.

[PseudoSABR]

Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

 

But you can't plan around bad luck. If **** happens, it happens. The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).

Oh I agree, Nick.

[PseudoSABR]

Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on.

 

Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk.

How about all the people (or the vast majority) participating in this conversation, in this specific thread, understand risk management. The posters in this thread are pretty smart and better educated than you're giving them credit for.

 

Honestly, your posts are oddly patronizing and naive at the same time. Will your next post be about the need to mitigate sunk costs? Oh boy.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

I concur. Strongly.

 

As a general rule sports teams should always be looking to assemble as much current talent as possible, by whatever means possible, and trying to win as many games as possible, every minute of every season. To do less purposely sacrifices the present while carrying no guarantee of a brighter future.

[Nick Nelson]

This is a total copout - what teams have a "surplus" of pitching. Remember, you are suggesting that they can trade Morneau and Span for immediate help in 2013 that will also be around for 2014 and beyond. Just what teams are going to give up such a pitcher for Span or Morneau? (Especially given their flaws)

Plenty of teams have 4-5 pitchers among their top 10 prospects (in addition to a full MLB rotation), the Twins have... one? The Braves were ready to give up Randall Delgado for two months of Ryan Dempster at the deadline – you're telling me no needy team would give that up for a full year of Morneau plus cash, or 3 reasonable years of Span? I'm not talking about an elite prospect here, just a decent young arm with some upside who can join the mix. I think you're exaggerating the extent to which "win-now" teams guard those types of players.

[TheLeviathan]

Plenty of teams have 4-5 pitchers among their top 10 prospects (in addition to a full MLB rotation), the Twins have... one? The Braves were ready to give up Randall Delgado for two months of Ryan Dempster at the deadline – you're telling me no needy team would give that up for a full year of Morneau plus cash, or 3 reasonable years of Span? I'm not talking about an elite prospect here, just a decent young arm with some upside who can join the mix. I think you're exaggerating the extent to which "win-now" teams guard those types of players.

So you're not talking about an elite prospect but you name-drop Randall Delgado? Here's the reality - Morneau has a long way to go to rebuild significant trade value, we see the most recent results and we hypothesize high return, but there is so much cash owed to him and so many question marks that I think it's pretty silly to think you're going to get a whole lot. Additionally, if Span had much value, why wasn't a deal already made? I think the fact he wasn't moved here in July says something about the value he holds to other teams. We're talking about a guy with some concussion issues, who plays a decent CF, has a low .700 OPS with limited power and limited steals, and who's home/road splits are alarming.

 

I don't deny that the team should be looking to move Span for young pitching that can help as close to immediately as possible - what I doubt is whether he has the value to obtain that. My guess is he has the value to obtain a couple of single A pitching specs with some upside, which is a better fit anyway. Morneau fetching more than that just isn't going to happen without at least the rest of August and September matching the form of the last few weeks. This smells a lot like our overvaluing of Liriano to me.