Article: Report From The Fort: Decisions And Divides

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I would have no issues if they let Tonkin go.  I have said that in the past.  However, keeping him as the long man for a little while doesn't really do him any good.  He isn't a long man.  If they keep him, I would want to see him in a role where he can pitch one inning, but his place on the team is going to be the long man.  That being said, I think Tonkin goes and Wimmer stays.

This is the issue I have with Tonkin as a long relief guy. He's not one.

If you go to his game logs for 2016 here we see that the vast majority of issues he had were when pitching >1.0 innings.

He is a 1 inning pitcher. Is he effective enough in that role to deserve a roster spot? I don't know, but keeping him as a mop-up guy is an inappropriate allocation of resources.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

agreed, but I can see a scenario where Haley and Wimmers are both in long relief based on how Falvine feels about the roatation. Maybe not opening day, but short starts and taxed bullpen with no optionable pitchers loom on the horizon.

Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A.  If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.

[bird]

The Twins do not have a shortage of pitchers of the caliber of Wimmers, Haley, Tonkin, and Tepesch. These are fungible assets. The best way to move forward in this case is to REDUCE friction by picking your (temporary) poison and letting two guys go. And hopefully, Molitor and Falvey don't create friction by caring a whole lot about which ones go bye-bye.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins do not have a shortage of pitchers of the caliber of Wimmers, Haley, Tonkin, and Tepesch. These are fungible assets. The best way to move forward in this case is to REDUCE friction by picking your (temporary) poison and letting two guys go. And hopefully, Molitor and Falvey don't create friction by caring a whole lot about which ones go bye-bye.

 

this. 100% this. 

[mikelink45]

The big question for me on the rotation is Phil Hughes.  After his last performance I would say that he is showing no progress.   I know spring training is for working on things, but in his case he should be working on being a high rotation starter again and what I am seeing is the HR ball and no put away.  Somehow I envision he and Tonkins teaming up on his starts and setting a new record for HRs by the opposition.  

 

Since I cannot see the games and rely on TD and other sources plus the box scores I have to dig to understand.  Here is an interesting set of comparisons:

Year W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2017 Spring Training Stats 1 2 6.55 6 6 0 22.0 12 1.59
Spring Training Career Stats* 9 9 4.47 52 40 1 179.1 126 1.36
2016 Stats 1 7 5.95 12 11 0 59.0 34 1.51
MLB Career Stats 84 76 4.41 253 200 3 1204.2 970 1.29

These are from http://m.mlb.com/player/461833/phil-hughes

What I find interesting is the comparison between spring 2017 and his long record of ST experiences.   An era that is 2 above his average is startling.  A whip that is .20 above average for a control pitcher is unnerving.    He is a ten year MLB vet.  After a very bad injury plagued year this is far from a good sign for the team when he is expected to be one of the top three in the rotation. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A. If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.

of 14 options for 12 pitchers on the opening day roster about 4 of them SHOULD be plan A.

[TKGuy]

Yes, Tonkin throws hard, but he cannot get his breaking stuff over and they just sit on his fastball.  He has had plenty of opportunities, no problem DFA.  Danny Santana, John Ryan Murphy, Michael Tonkin, Buddy Boshers, plus move Perkins to the 60-day.  There's five spots, adding Park, Gimenez and Wimmers gives you two left.  Haley would just be blocking other guys, so I'd give him back also.  

[Jham]

http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/28/minnesota-twins-reliever-michael-tonkin-polishing-a-new-cutter/

Tonkin apparently throwing a cutter now.  He says he can't throw it for strikes.  I suggested I was done with him last year.  I dunno.  He's relatively close to being effective.  I'd keep him for a little while I guess.  Or keep an eye on the waiver wire for final cuts.  We should definitely keep a roster spot available for that.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Yes, Tonkin throws hard, but he cannot get his breaking stuff over and they just sit on his fastball.  He has had plenty of opportunities, no problem DFA.  Danny Santana, John Ryan Murphy, Michael Tonkin, Buddy Boshers, plus move Perkins to the 60-day.  There's five spots, adding Park, Gimenez and Wimmers gives you two left.  Haley would just be blocking other guys, so I'd give him back also.  

I'm with you except for Boshers. Too little data to be sure that last year was a fluke. SIERA, FIP and xFIP suggest it wasn't. And I agree that Haley could go.

This team is trying to determine who they should keep from one of the worst pitching staffs of 2016. Some team out there is likely going to DFA someone who is better than some of the players we have. If we are watching carefully we may find a couple of them to help our team.

I'll be very curious to see what our new FO does here.

[ashbury]

Some team out there is likely going to DFA someone who is better than some of the players we have. If we are watching carefully we may find a couple of them to help our team.

Better than what we have, but still not good enough for a contending team, presumably.

 

If they DFA someone due to three options having been exercised, he's probably not young with upside anymore. And if he had trade value, he'd be part of a trade. I'm not saying not to scour the waiver wire, but I don't think it's any path to riches for a rebuilding team. We have stopgaps galore already.

[Rosterman]

But who will still be pitching for the Twins, or in the organization, come 2018 and especially 2019.

 

Wimmers was showing signs of success after battling injuries over the past few seasons. He was actually the closer at Rochester and got a cup-of-coffee with the Twins, finally, last season -- which is what you hope happens to 1st round draft choices. But because of age and roster number crunches, they felt Boshers was worth more than Wimmers and no one claimed him and Wimmers looking in the mirror still felt the Twins were good for a go and signed a minor league contract.

 

Tonkin the Twins don't want to lose yet. But eventually, they will. I don't see him being back next season at all. 

 

And Haley. Okay, an okay pick-up, but we have significant depth of 41st-roster men already from ALL the minor league free agent signings.

 

The bigger question is HOW WILL THE TWINS win with the team they are putting on the field. How many real changes have they made - Castro and Gimenez, Breslow and Belisle. Throw in Haley. That is it. I'm sure the cheering sections are being established right now in different parts of Target Field.

 

Would the Twins have been better served to just push the prospects. You expect that will happen, especially in the bullpen, and if the veteran rotation implodes you should be able to throw the same poitches with Berrios, Wheeler, Mejias, Gonsalves and Stewart, who will ALL be here in the next couple of seasons more than likely, unless they pitch so brilliantly in the minors that the Twins feel a need to trade them.

 

Again, one doesn't see a lot of worth in the Twins 25 above and beyond the prospects who really are already seasoned from a year or two and have to show that they belong. Otherwise, the chances of someone claiming a Tonkin, Duffey...heck, teams passed on Park who looks like he might've been a steal if someone was smart outside of the Twins. 

 

Lets hope Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario show us great play. Quite frankly there is no one in the current rotation or even the bullpen that I would care to see on Opening Day 2019.

 

[The Wise One]

When you see the makeup of the AAA and AA pitching staffs, you will have an idea of when you might see a pitcher. Tepesch or Wimmers are the early season disaster happened relievers. Berrios and the loser of the 5th starter battle will be   Reed and Chargois by May to replace the dregs. Plenty in AA that need to move forward  It shall be interesting to see if there are any philosophical changes (hint, more aggressive) in mid season advancement of prospects.