What would the return be on Revere?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.

 

This is what I would consider doing this offseason:

 

- Trade Revere this offseason. I don't see how his value is going to get higher than if he finishes the season with a .330 BA and stellar defense. He should bring back a high upside starter plus a low minors guy with that kind of season under his belt. Revere has a lot of room to backslide with those numbers but unless he starts developing power, he has little room to grow as a player.

 

- Replace Revere with Parmelee. Some time early next season, Arcia is going to be knocking on the door. This gets Chris some playing time in the meantime for the next move...

 

- Trade Morneau at the 2013 deadline. If you can't move Justin this offseason, keep him for next deadline and hope he keeps hitting. If he does, he will bring back a solid prospect in return.

 

- Hold on to Span until the 2013 offseason, at which point the second of Hicks/Arcia/Benson should be knocking on the door. Span will still have two more seasons on his contract (one mandatory year, one optional) and should demand a decent return.

 

Four moves and you've completely altered the organization for the long term while not sacrificing a ton of offense in the short term (hopefully).

[sorney]

RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!

[jorgenswest]

We may have to remove our expectation about major league starting pitching, but the plan is sound.

 

I would suggest trading Willingham instead of Revere and moving Revere to left. I am very concerned that the Willingham of 2014 will be a liability on the field and his bat will drop to the median of left fielders.

[jorgenswest]

RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!

Pierre is a good comp. He has been traded a few times. After 2005, he was traded for Ricky Nolasco and Sergio Mitre. Both were prospects at the time. Nolasco was a B prospect and in the Cubs top 10. It can happen which sets our expectations, but the trade environment for starting pitching appears much more difficult today.

[rinkratfrits]

Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.

 

 

 

Rocket - I've been saying this for months. Way to steal my thunder!

 

I love the scenario, but I don't think you'll get the high-end pitching prospect that you would hope to get in return. The Juan Pierre deal was 7 years ago and many things have changed since then. Teams are not going to part with those pitchers for a Revere-type player.

[gunnarthor]

Span still has the most trade value and Revere is an obvious in-house replacement for him. I still think Span should be moved this off season. He's a 4.5-5 WAR player under a great contract, if the Twins can't get a Latos/Gonzalez/Pence like return for him, hold onto him and we have this OF arrangement again next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I think Pierre is a good comp, his trade isn't really applicable to Revere. Pierre has only posted an OPS+ of over 100 twice in his career and when he went to the Cubs, he only had one year of control left. The year before, he also posted a very pedestrian 84 OPS+. Right now, Revere is posting an OPS+ of 108 and can't be a FA until 2017 or something like that.

[Thrylos]

I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)

What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

 

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

[DPJ]

What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

 

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

 

Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.

I assume you meant "not crazy" to assume Revere can consistently BABIP at .340. I agree with that.

 

The thing is that he's 20 points higher than that right now. If he BABIPs at .330 next season, he's suddenly a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP. A far cry from a .330/.360 guy with no power he is today.

 

I'm not saying that Revere is going to collapse, all I'm saying is that there's a good chance he never gets much better than he is today.

 

And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.

[Riverbrian]

I would Trade Revere if he brought back Starting Pitching. I would not trade him for a SS. I'd be real sad to see him go but for Pitching I'd say lets do it.

 

Now... If choosing between Revere and Span... I'd keep Revere straight up and I also believe that Span fetches a higher return. So Span is still the guy to move that makes sense. I'd also be sad to see Span go... But for Pitching... I'd say lets do it.

 

On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

 

Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

 

Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.

It definitely makes for an ugly OF to start the 2013 season. My hope would be that Arcia, Hicks, or Benson would arrive early enough in 2013 to make it palatable.

 

As with anything on a team this questionable, lots of "ifs".

[DPJ]

And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.

No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.

Yep. I don't know what it's going to take to get a decent starting pitcher from another team at this point. I was tossing out this idea because to some teams, Revere might be more alluring than Span because he is stupid-cheap and team-controlled for many more years.

[Buck Nasty]

I like the thought process. But, if I had my choice, I'd prefer to move Span and keep Revere. I know on paper (as you've laid out) Span should be the better player. But Revere just keeps proving people wrong at ever level. Wouldn't it suck to trade him and find out he just keeps getting better? Yes, he could regress too. But we are just guessing. We know what we have in Span. He's solid. But he's also older, not getting better and had concussion issues. Bottom line, one of them should be moved. Let the market decide who (based on return).

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I think both Revere and Span (and Morneau) should be on the trading block this offseason. Who do you trade?? Whoever brings the most. Trade any one of the three if you can get a solid MLB starter...then pull the others back. Thats simple. Yes, no more OF prospects or older utility IF.

[Jeff P]

I like your basic point: trade high on a player instead of waiting for them to fall down and then trading low. I just think most others will believe he is going to fall back and so the return for Revere would not be all that much. Personally I would rather trade Span: more expensive and fewer years under team control and he will bring more in trade. Plus he also has risk for falling back, in his case over injury concerns.

[Thrylos]

What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

 

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

Because:

a. he is younger

b. he is cheaper

c. he is better now

d. Span will probably bring something more

e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)

f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and

g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

 

Want more reasons?

[TheLeviathan]

It's worth dangling - but it's not going to happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Because:

a. he is younger

b. he is cheaper

c. he is better now

d. Span will probably bring something more

e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)

f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and

g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

 

Want more reasons?

So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

 

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

 

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not the biggest Revere fan, in part b/c I'm not convinced he can do this year in and year out. Between Revere and Span, I'd trade the guy that nets the most value, though I admit that Revere in my opinion is nothing more than a stop gap until Hicks or Benson is ready. I would guess that Span is going to get more value because he's an established player, whereas other GMs might like Revere's cost, but still see the risk. The nice thing is that if Revere does this again next year, and Hicks/Arcia/Benson all do well in AAA, we could be looking at the exact same situation next season.

 

This offseason, trade Span for something nice. Move Revere to center and let Parmelee man right.

Trade Morneau at the trade deadline and move Parmelee to 1B. Call up one of the outfielders (most likey Arcia).

Next offseason, trade Revere assuming that Hicks and/or Benson is ready. Keep the other one in AAA and consider flipping Willingham at that deadline (or potentially move him to DH to open up the last OF spot).

[Thrylos]

So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

 

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

 

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

Revere matters and to make myself clear:

 

Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

 

based on:

 

a. Revere is a better player right now

b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)

c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

 

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

[jokin]

So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

 

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

 

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.

Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

 

His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.

[jokin]

Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

 

His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.

And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?

[Brock Beauchamp]

And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?

I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

 

The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.

[boney]

If the plan is to plug Parmalee in at the RF position I would rather see Revere's range in center. Span would seemingly bring a bigger return tradewise and imo, Revere's stolen bases would make up for the loss of Span's OBP run wise.

[twinswon1991]

I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.

[jokin]

I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

 

The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.

The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."