What would the return be on Revere?

[jokin]

I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.

Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

 

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."

Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

 

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

[jokin]

Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

 

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

I second your second paragraph and agree with the last sentence of your first.

 

But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

 

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

The Reds.

[twinswon1991]

Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9?

 

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.

[deanlambrecht]

<snip> Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

 

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

 

Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.

[jokin]

Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite.

 

 

.300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?

[jokin]

Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.

Yes, but I think RP thinks his numbers are unsustainable, when in fact, his MiLB numbers suggest he can maintain a pace close to this- an elite level for as long as he maintains his speed- especially with Mauer and Willingham behind him for plate protection.

 

As I stated, the Twins better be listening for offers on EVERYONE.

[PseudoSABR]

Revere is the kind of guy the Twins hold onto, whether he's producing or not--so I see the chances of trading him at pretty much nil, despite however it makes sense.

[Thrylos]

Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. .

um.... MIL a contender? I guess as much as the Twins are

 

The Phillies will be all out for a lead-off man/CF this off-season, and Span would be a perfect fit for them. Revere too, but Span and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven and the Twins could get a nice return back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.

Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

 

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

[Shane Wahl]

I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

 

I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.

[Shane Wahl]

Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

 

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

[Brock Beauchamp]

.300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?

No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

 

But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.

[John Bonnes]

I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.

 

I honestly don't know which would fetch more back, Span or Revere, but I have to think Span would be easier to find a suitor. During the offseason, teams are going to look for a sure thing from the lead off, and Span seems more sure-thing-ish than Revere. And the Twins don't need to get as much back for Span either. It just seems so much more likely a deal could be completed with Span. Revere is more of a gamble for everyone involved.

[jokin]

If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.

And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

 

All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

 

Revere $12.7

Parra $8.3

Bourjos $6.8

 

UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

 

Revere 18.2

Bourjos 16.3

Parra 11.7

 

As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.

Damn, John just went and played the Delmon/Garza card.

[jokin]

I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.

Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

 

Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.

[twinswon1991]

And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

 

All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

 

Revere $12.7

Parra $8.3

Bourjos $6.8

 

UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

 

Revere 18.2

Bourjos 16.3

Parra 11.7

 

As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.

Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.

[Shane Wahl]

Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

 

Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.

Yes. The skull density there is mind-boggling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.

You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

 

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

This was the biggest thing I disagree with. How often do we see players in their 30's peak? Cuddyer and Willingham are a few examples that we have seen first hand. I don't buy that there is a prime in baseball unlike other sports. It's not very physical and is much more mental. A player in his 'physical prime', or in that 27-29 year old range, isn't significantly more likely to be in his 'career prime'.

 

To follow that up, I agree that Revere gives the Twins a better chance. I strongly disagree with trading Span before Revere because it is an EXCELLENT idea to trade high on Ben after this season. It's almost a guarantee that Revere will decline next year and his value couldn't get much higher. Both Revere AND Span should be sent packing if a good offer comes around because neither is necessary for the future. Hicks is our CF, Arcia is our RF, and Benson is our LF. Hicks, Benson, and Arcia will of course need a little more time to develop, but they are all knocking at the door in AA and it's possible we see them in September call-ups and certainly in Spring Training. I wouldn't mind holding on to Denard until the 2013 deadline rather than the offseason to be a stopgap in the meantime. Simply put, Denard is more 'proven' and can be counted on to compete at a consistent level. His value probably won't change much. Parmelee, Doumit, and Mastroianni are all reasonable stopgap solutions as well.

 

MY PLAN: Trade Revere in the 2012-2013 offseason.

Spring Training OF/Opening Day OF:

Willingham LF, Span CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

 

Here's where it gets interesting.

Think of the trio Benson, Arcia, and Hicks...

 

Trade Span at the 2013 deadline. If 1/3 Outfielders or more progress. Extremely likely.

Second Half OF (If one of Benson/Hicks progress):

Willingham LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee

 

Second Half OF (If only Arcia progresses):

Willingham LF, Mastroianni CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

 

Trade Willingham at the 2013 deadline. If 2/3 Outfielders or more progress. Somewhat likely.

Second Half OF (If both Arcia and one of Hicks/Benson progress)

Parmelee/Doumit LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

 

 

Second Half OF (If both Hicks and Benson progress; Not Arcia)

Benson LF, Hicks CF, Parmelee/Doumit RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

Consider trading Justin Morneau if 3/3 Outfielders progress. Unlikely.

Second Half OF

Benson LF, Hicks CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

 

In hindsight, I actually like keeping Span last deadline. It's nice to have him around while we wait for players with more potential. None of these arrangements are intended to be competitive and you'll see that I am expecting the entire trio to be prepared for 2014, not 2013. Hopefully Span, Revere, and Willingham would all fetch good SP hauls. I love Denard Span and Ben Revere and would hate to see them go, I really do. The moves would definitely be very unpopular with the fanbase and I understand that. They both have great personalities and have become fan favorites. But what's to say we don't like the new guys too? Trading Morneau makes me very uncomfortable because I am one of the believers. If the outfield all pans out in 2013, the Twins really can't put Parmelee there and he would need to spend more time between 1B and DH. This is a solid plan to derail the logjam in the outfield and what I think would get the Twins back on track to contention!

[twinswon1991]

You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.

 

 

 

Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.

[stringer bell]

I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

 

I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.

I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.

[jokin]

No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

 

But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.

Under those strict criteria he's definitely not elite and without additional power and more plate discipline he has no hopes of ever becoming Josh Hamilton, but then, you are a demanding grader.

 

He is valuable, projecting out as #2 (#1, if he possibly catches Trout?) in SB and admittedly underrated as #2 in UZR for 2011-12 and batting .300, even with a low OBP, are still numbers virtually all players would kill for. If he does go on the block, the Twins can't repeat past faulty talent assessment mistakes like Garza, Gomez, Young, Dickey and Lohse.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Revere matters and to make myself clear:

 

Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

 

based on:

 

a. Revere is a better player right now

b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)

c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

 

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Revere has more range (though Span is above average in the field) with lousy arm. Span has more power and gets on base more. He's not quite as good of a base stealer. Span is the better player right now. You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

[jokin]

I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.

This, but only if they don't screw up on the acquired trading assets.

[jokin]

Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.

Only in UZR, I guess.

[jokin]

You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

What player isn't one hamstring injury away from being a lousy player? Revere is only 24, virtually everybody last year said he had hit his ceiling and now look where he is. I agree that he likely will regress back closer to .300, but look what he's been able to accomplish during his "out of his head" stretch even with Mauer behind him in a mini-slump (206/292/353 in last 9 games). And he's not just a better base-stealer, but a much better guy on the bases, stealing and everything else, Span at times can look lost, confused, asleep or scared on the basepaths. It seems the (admittedly flawed) Sabre-valuation numbers are overvaluing Revere and the Sabre-guys want to put a stop to the madness.

 

Is there a new valuation number floating around out there somewhere that corrects for Over-BABIP and Over-UZR metrics? It's my understanding that Baseball Reference uses lower defensive values.