Berardino: Top of batting order remains a riddle

[theBOMisthebomb]

This is the old school in me bubbling to the surface: if Dozier can mash in the leadoff spot and get the Twins on the scoreboard in the first inning and his numbers slump lower in the lineup then hit him first. These are people playing the game. The benefits to Dozier being comfortable and producing in the leadoff spot are worth it. In this case throw Goins' analytics report out the window.

[TheLeviathan]

Again, any evidence to this moping through changes thing would be welcomed... Feel free to share...

Well, his production lower in the lineup might be that. He certainly indicates in this article that not batting lead off has an impact on him mentally. So whether intentional or not, doesn't it have the same effect?

[bird]

 

Well, his production lower in the lineup might be that. He certainly indicates in this article that not batting lead off has an impact on him mentally. So whether intentional or not, doesn't it have the same effect?

 

Suggesting any fall-off in production is due to his attitude calls into question his professionalism. Better than labeling him a selfish whiner I guess, but still...

[TheLeviathan]

 

Suggesting any fall-off in production is due to his attitude calls into question his professionalism. Better than labeling him a selfish whiner I guess, but still...

 

Didn't Dozier himself acknowledge that his production differences are partly a result of his position in the batting order?

 

"I like the leadoff approach" and "let's just say the game isn't played on paper" are him strongly implying that hitting elsewhere in the lineup hurts his approach.  Or, to phrase it another way, that hitting leadoff improves his approach.  Whether we frame it positively that one spot improves his play, or negatively that other spots hurt his play, the effect is the same.  I doubt that is lost on Molitor.  

 

I don't know that it makes him unprofessional, but like any human, the mental part of the game is a factor.  And Dozier is saying that is the case for him and his production.  He's letting his own personal preferences override analytics and he doesn't appear ashamed to admit it.

[ken]

Didn't Dozier himself acknowledge that his production differences are partly a result of his position in the batting order?

 

"I like the leadoff approach" and "let's just say the game isn't played on paper" are him strongly implying that hitting elsewhere in the lineup hurts his approach. Or, to phrase it another way, that hitting leadoff improves his approach. Whether we frame it positively that one spot improves his play, or negatively that other spots hurt his play, the effect is the same. I doubt that is lost on Molitor.

 

I don't know that it makes him unprofessional, but like any human, the mental part of the game is a factor. And Dozier is saying that is the case for him and his production. He's letting his own personal preferences override analytics and he doesn't appear ashamed to admit it.

I think you have just described the problem with analystics. Remember "Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Didn't Dozier himself acknowledge that his production differences are partly a result of his position in the batting order?

 

I have nothing to back up this theory, but I think I've heard Dozier be described as a "mistake" hitter. I wonder if he sees more "mistake" pitches hitting at the very top of the order (where there's often nobody on base). That would explain why he hits so many solo home runs.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Dozier is simply "looking out for #1".  He gets a lot of cookies batting first in the 1st inning and teams will generously overpay for HR hitters (which will soon become very useful for Dozier!).  OBP and Dozier--nope, he wants HRs and the big dollars that accompany them!

 

Let's be fair to Dozier - he has never been afraid to take a walk. He took the same number of walks last year (in less PA) while hitting 50% more home runs. It isn't like he sold out walks for HR to pursue a contract. He's a patient hitter. And he hit a bunch of home runs leadoff but that isn't something all leadoff hitters with pop do - it took skill.

 

He's also not 100% wrong overall. Getting on base 40% of the time is always nice but it isn't necessarily the best way to score runs -- Dozier got on base 34% of the time but hit 40+ HR last year. Him pumping up his OBP at the expense of power would likely be a step back. Dozier may be coming from the wrong spot but the overall message (don't get too bogged down in OBP, it doesn't tell the whole story) is likely something to keep in mind. It might temper the way you look at Buxton and Polanco in the leadoff spot by year's end - we may like Buxton further down the lineup because of his XBH skills, even though his speed and OBP would suggest higher in the lineup. (knock on wood. hard.)

[ThejacKmp]

 

Well, his production lower in the lineup might be that. He certainly indicates in this article that not batting lead off has an impact on him mentally. So whether intentional or not, doesn't it have the same effect?

 

It's not exactly the same thing but I play a lot of softball over the season and I definitely like hitting leadoff and wouldn't like moving down in the lineup. It's a mentality thing -- the same way hitting cleanup is a mentality thing and playing SS vs RF is a mentality thing. Baseball isn't just numbers, there's a human component to it.

 

I don't think we can criticize Dozier for wanting to hit leadoff and having a preference for it while we call for Buxton to hit further down in the lineup so he doesn't have the pressure to start the year. Management shouldn't be doing what players want just because they want it but Dozier's allowed to have a preference. I trust he knows that he gets a little extra juiced starting off the game -- and I also trust he'll figure out a way to stay juiced if he's hitting in the #3 hole. He's never been anything but professional.

 

This whole thread seems a bit critical. Plenty of spring training left.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think we can criticize Dozier for wanting to hit leadoff and having a preference for it while we call for Buxton to hit further down in the lineup so he doesn't have the pressure to start the year. Management shouldn't be doing what players want just because they want it but Dozier's allowed to have a preference. I trust he knows that he gets a little extra juiced starting off the game -- and I also trust he'll figure out a way to stay juiced if he's hitting in the #3 hole. He's never been anything but professional.

 

The only part of this that I'm being critical of with Dozier is how quickly and emphatically he dismissed the value of what the analytics say.  I'm not a fan of that.  

 

But I'm also being critical of the idea that we can just push this all on Molitor because he makes the lineups.  If Dozier feels the way he clearly expresses in this article, then I'm sure that message gets sent loud and clear to his manager as well.  One way or the other and that is partially (largely?) on Dozier.

[Willihammer]

Every spot below leadoff costs the Twins 20 Dozier-PAs over a full season. Since he's the best hitter that doesn't seem very ideal to me.

[Seth Stohs]

 

And the game is not played on paper. That's just silly.

 

That's right... they're played on TV!

[ThejacKmp]

 

The only part of this that I'm being critical of with Dozier is how quickly and emphatically he dismissed the value of what the analytics say.  I'm not a fan of that.  

 

But I'm also being critical of the idea that we can just push this all on Molitor because he makes the lineups.  If Dozier feels the way he clearly expresses in this article, then I'm sure that message gets sent loud and clear to his manager as well.  One way or the other and that is partially (largely?) on Dozier.

 

My bad, responding to you made it seem like it was just to you. More to the general tone of the thread.

 

I get your point but I'm never going to criticize a player for his view of broad analytics (maybe if he refuses to watch video) because he's just a player. It's not his job to do that, it's his job to get up there and hit the ball. Thinking analytically works for some guys but doesn't for others - I trust the players know the best way to get themselves ready. The manager (and front office) is solely at fault if applying broad analytics goes wrong. It'd be like if there was a manufacturing problem at the Gerber factory and we got mad at the guy who ran the top-screwing-on machine. He may not be the most knowledgable or progressive about manufacturing processes but it also isn't his job. The plant manager and the Gerber executives are at fault - it was their job to ensure the manufacturing process was optimal.

 

Nothing in what Dozier has said comes anywhere near making him part of the problem. He expressed a healthy skepticism of analytics and expressed his preference to bat at the top of the lineup. He didn't make demands to hit there, he didn't say that he refuses to watch video, he's been professional. It's not his job to decide the lineup and any organization that is swayed by Brian Dozier's opinion has a bigger problem to begin with.

[Linus]

I thought analytics proved that lineups don't matter?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I thought analytics proved that lineups don't matter?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

The image is from a fangraphs article breaking down the subject blog post.

 

As I read it, to optimize runs, Mauer should lead off, Dozier should clean up.

[LaBombo]

 

I thought analytics proved that lineups don't matter?

You might be thinking of the whole batting order protection racket thing, which was gospel for years before being credibly disputed by various analytic arguments.

[Platoon]

When saying Mauer should hit first and Dozier should cleanup, one has to assume that each player would replicate his career stats in those differently pitched environments. I am not sure that would be the case. Mauer might translate better from 3-1 than Dozier from 1-4. BD is a mistake hitter, and it's a fairly singular mistake. Could he adapt and drive the ball consistently when pitched with more focus with two guys on? Maybe? But would he get as many get em over cookies as when no one was on? That's highly doubtful. There is a reason he likes hitting in the one hole. The poster who said the game is played on the field is correct. Players are not stat machines, thankfully. They have personalities and opinions of themselves, formed over years. They may be right, or they may be wrong, but they are. And to discount that would also require one to simply put the stat sheet on the lineup card!

[TheLeviathan]

Nothing in what Dozier has said comes anywhere near making him part of the problem. He expressed a healthy skepticism of analytics and expressed his preference to bat at the top of the lineup. He didn't make demands to hit there, he didn't say that he refuses to watch video, he's been professional. It's not his job to decide the lineup and any organization that is swayed by Brian Dozier's opinion has a bigger problem to begin with.

Except, to use your analogy, the guy in charge of top screwing has been told how to screw on the tops in the most efficient manner by analytics and is saying "Pfft, your fancy analytics don't trump my old school know how!" and is insisting on his way. At that point, if things aren't working optimally, I would for sure lay some fault on him.

 

I also question your suggestion that Molitor should ignore how his players feel. If he puts the optimal analytic lineup out and Dozier struggles who gets the fault? It shouldn't be Molitor in that case if what you say holds true.

[Bark's Lounge]

Position players & DH's should bat where they are assigned, no more no less. The players should listen and respect the management's philosophy and get on board with it. If it does not work than adjustments will be made. To hell with the ignitor statement. Molitor was at his best 2.5-3 decades ago. The game has changed a lot since then.

 

I want a 40HR hitter batting 3-4 and Mauer should just be happy he is in the starting line-up. I'd rather roll with Vargas or Park playing 1B.

 

I love Mauer, but he is a shell of who he once was. He is essentially Mickey Hatcher now with more BB's.

 

What is the point of bringing in new blood FO wise if you continue on the same path as the previous regime executed?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

When saying Mauer should hit first and Dozier should cleanup, one has to assume that each player would replicate his career stats in those differently pitched environments. I am not sure that would be the case. Mauer might translate better from 3-1 than Dozier from 1-4. BD is a mistake hitter, and it's a fairly singular mistake. Could he adapt and drive the ball consistently when pitched with more focus with two guys on? Maybe? But would he get as many get em over cookies as when no one was on? That's highly doubtful. There is a reason he likes hitting in the one hole. The poster who said the game is played on the field is correct. Players are not stat machines, thankfully. They have personalities and opinions of themselves, formed over years. They may be right, or they may be wrong, but they are. And to discount that would also require one to simply put the stat sheet on the lineup card!

this is the argument for status quo that has been used for 20 years. How do you know the new approach doesn't work, if you don't try it?

 

The whole point of the article quoted earlier is that obp has less affect on runs scored in the 3rd place in the lineup than first, second, 4th or 5th. Ergo, Mauer who's only tool is OBP has 5th most impact on run scored batting 3rd and most inpact batting first.

[Platoon]

this is the argument for status quo that has been used for 20 years. How do you know the new approach doesn't work, if you don't try it?

The whole point of the article quoted earlier is that obp has less affect on runs scored in the 3rd place in the lineup than first, second, 4th or 5th. Ergo, Mauer who's only tool is OBP has 5th most impact on run scored batting 3rd and most inpact batting first.

And unless I am mistaken I acknowledged that Mauer would translate better to one, than Dozier to 4. It's been awhile since I thought Mauer was a 3 hitter. I agree that after decades of Ryan changes are due. And if BD can move to the 4 hole, and still hit 42 dingers, good for him. But he has hit 3-4 and the results, while SSS, have not been good.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Because he will be a pain in the neck to deal with, if he insists that he should lead off, and the Twins will be better off without him and his selfishness.   Time to teach the young players that this is a team game... 

Nothing I've ever read about Dozier seems to indicate that he is anything but a team oriented, unselfish player.

[Bark's Lounge]

Whether you respect or don't respect Dozier's or Mauer's opinions doesn't really matter.

 

They are certainly just in giving their opinions and preferences on life, a batting order, etc.

 

Just like everyone else for the most part, they are people of comfort, routine, and don't want to change what is working for them. Change is hard and can be intimidating.

 

Just like us working stiffs, we certainly don't deal with the money these guys make, but that does not mean their areas of comfort change from being a human being. I am sure that most of us would be willing to take on a new task or position at our jobs, for most of us, hopefully, that gives you grounds to ask for a bump in pay or more. When you are dealing with the employment of average Joe's and Jane's the grounds for negotiation should be wide open.

 

These are professional baseball player's who make multiple millions of dollars, but I see both of these baseball players as being malleable and certainly able to follow the mantra that is being sold as the 2017 MN Twins.

 

Neither of these two players fit the profile to kick up some **** and cause chaos.

 

Who cares about their comments.

 

Let's bitch when they hit the field on opening day.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And unless I am mistaken I acknowledged that Mauer would translate better to one, than Dozier to 4. It's been awhile since I thought Mauer was a 3 hitter. I agree that after decades of Ryan changes are due. And if BD can move to the 4 hole, and still hit 42 dingers, good for him. But he has hit 3-4 and the results, while SSS, have not been good.

Mauer never was a "3 hitter" following the argument, harkening back to the M&M days, Mauer and Morneau should have switched batting order positions.

 

also following the argument Dozier doesn't need to hit 42 dingers in the cleanup spot, he needs to hit his usual 25-30ish and get on base at his usual .330-.340 clip and be there when 5 guy (Sano in this model) gets up to bat.

 

Heres my interpretation of the obp model to lineup construction would be

 

Mauer DH/1b

Kepler OF

Vargas 1b/DH

Dozier 2b

Sano 3b

Buxton OF

Polanco SS

Castro C

Rosario OF

[ThejacKmp]

 

Except, to use your analogy, the guy in charge of top screwing has been told how to screw on the tops in the most efficient manner by analytics and is saying "Pfft, your fancy analytics don't trump my old school know how!" and is insisting on his way. At that point, if things aren't working optimally, I would for sure lay some fault on him.

I also question your suggestion that Molitor should ignore how his players feel. If he puts the optimal analytic lineup out and Dozier struggles who gets the fault? It shouldn't be Molitor in that case if what you say holds true.

 

But is that what's going on? Are the Twins telling Dozier to use analytics in some specific way and he refuses? I've heard nothing saying he refuses to scout pitchers' tendencies or use video. All he's done is state a preference for batting leadoff and say that he finds the analytics focus on OBP at the top of the lineup unconvincing. It's not his job to set the lineup and he isn't trying to do that.

 

To stick with the analogy, the equivalent of lineup ordering isn't one worker failing to use a new technique for screwing on tops (in baseball that would be refusing to use a new approach like a new kind of scouting report or watching video), it's a failure in the process all-together (e.g. having an inefficient machine for screwing on tops, having one that breaks all the time.) If the lineup is constructed poorly, Brian Dozier (can-screwer-extraordinaire) won't be to blame for it -- he didn't put the machine process together, he's just a cog.

 

No one is saying that Molitor isn't listening to Dozier or other players or running rough-shod over them. Don't put words in my mouth. Molly will definitely listen to Dozier if he has suggestions for a fielding arrangement or if he has a nagging injury that keeps him from playing on a given day. But he isn't going to Brian Dozier (or Joe Mauer or Miguel Sano) and saying "Hey, is this lineup okay? Why don't you just write yourself in there where you want and I'll take it from there." Blaming Dozier for having an opinion on where he hits or saying that he has an easier time focusing when he leads off is pretty misguided - he's allowed to have that opinion and it shouldn't affect how the lineup is constructed anyways.

 

As to your final point, I don't think even the stupidest of columnists (Reusse) would make a convincing argument that a Dozier struggling in the 3 spot is due to where he is hitting in the lineup. And for Molitor, it doesn't matter what Reusse says or Dozier says, it matters what his bosses say. Molitor's job will hinge on whether his bosses think that he can make their vision come true on the field. Dozier struggling will be on Dozier - his view on analytics and lineup order will have nothing to do with it. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

As to your final point, I don't think even the stupidest of columnists (Reusse) would make a convincing argument that a Dozier struggling in the 3 spot is due to where he is hitting in the lineup. And for Molitor, it doesn't matter what Reusse says or Dozier says, it matters what his bosses say. Molitor's job will hinge on whether his bosses think that he can make their vision come true on the field. Dozier struggling will be on Dozier - his view on analytics and lineup order will have nothing to do with it. 

 

Just in the last week we've had one person accuse Molitor of being the reason why Dozier didn't hit well in April and May.  And how many times do we hear criticism for managers based on "putting someone in a position to succeed"?

 

Dozier makes clear here that his preference to hit leadoff sparks his actual production because he has a mental thing about it.  The stats back it up, small sample size acknowledged.  You think Molitor should ignore that?  It's not that he has to go ask Dozier for his ideas, he'll get the message one way or the other from Dozier once he makes the lineup.  (Either Dozier will express that he doesn't like that spot, or his play will express it)

 

What I don't like is a beat reporter simply asking about it and the entire idea that analytics may be important being dismissed.  I'd like to see a much more open mind and willingness to embrace change, otherwise that does cause problems for his manager and the team.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Just in the last week we've had one person accuse Molitor of being the reason why Dozier didn't hit well in April and May.  And how many times do we hear criticism for managers based on "putting someone in a position to succeed"?

 

Dozier makes clear here that his preference to hit leadoff sparks his actual production because he has a mental thing about it.  The stats back it up, small sample size acknowledged.  You think Molitor should ignore that?  It's not that he has to go ask Dozier for his ideas, he'll get the message one way or the other from Dozier once he makes the lineup.  (Either Dozier will express that he doesn't like that spot, or his play will express it)

 

What I don't like is a beat reporter simply asking about it and the entire idea that analytics may be important being dismissed.  I'd like to see a much more open mind and willingness to embrace change, otherwise that does cause problems for his manager and the team.  

 

Those same idiots spent the past two years saying that Dozier couldn't finish a season well even though that was clearly a false narrative. Excuse me for not taking anything they say seriously. If you're asking me to give credence to those spouting baseball platitudes, I think your argument has begun to spring some leaks.

 

Dozier was chatting with reporters after the second week of spring training. I'm not holding him to anything he's said. We don't know the context of the question or the depth to which Dozier feels this way - players say things in interviews all the time. Especially early in spring training. We do know he's a consummate professional and will hit wherever he is told to. He hit second for chunks of last year without complaint, he has no known history of disagreement with the Twins organization -- he's a model citizen.

 

The numbers are prone to small sample size but even if you take them at face value they don't show what you're saying. Dozier has his highest OPS hitting 4th and 5th in the lineup, not leadoff. 

 

I think you're making a problem where none exists. "Ack my house might start on fire! I should burn it down now so it's controlled!"

[SheboyganBrats]

I like it when a player gives a frank and honest answer to a question.  I would especially like that quality if I were the manager and wanted to know my players' preferences.  I hate it when you ask someone a question and all you get is a bunch of oatmeal spilling out of their mouth.  On that basis, I think Dozier's comments were fine, and I don't read much more into them than that.  Just my opinion, though, and not a criticism of any of the other posts here. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Dozier was chatting with reporters after the second week of spring training. I'm not holding him to anything he's said. 

 

 

I guess I sort of do take players to mean what they say.  And I don't like the dismissive nature of what he said.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I guess I sort of do take players to mean what they say.  And I don't like the dismissive nature of what he said.

 

They get interviewed every day - and Spring Training often involves more non-traditional-media types since it's a bit more low-key so there's even more interviewing. Spring Training also involves a lot more hypothetical questions because the games themselves don't even matter so a reporter has less to work with. If you interviewed me every day and asked me a bunch of random questions, I shudder to think of things i would say offhandedly.

 

I saw nothing that said Dozier wouldn't suit up wherever he was asked to. He just expressed a preference and valued his own experience over analytics depiction of a typical leadoff hitter. Hard for me to read a lot into that.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I saw nothing that said Dozier wouldn't suit up wherever he was asked to. He just expressed a preference and valued his own experience over analytics depiction of a typical leadoff hitter. Hard for me to read a lot into that.

 

Whew....good thing no one was questioning whether he was willing to suit up!  If he was giving canned answers I'd hope it would be "Hey, I'll hit wherever Molly tells me and love it!"

 

But he didn't.  Instead he sounded ridiculous.