mlbpipeline top 100

[Mike Sixel]

 

... so your rule for a 'non-bad' pick is that they have to out-perform every single prospect that was drafted between round 6-12? I just don't think that is how the MLB draft works. I would think that almost every team that drafts 6th would fail under those conditions.

 

 

Quote 

Less than 25 RPs put up more than replacement level WAR last year.......

 

... and what is the correlation between cumulative team, or bullpen, WAR and winning the pennant?

 

Actually, with the current focus on shut-down bullpens, I bet there is a better correlation with bullpen WAR than team WAR.

 

 

Quote

Would you trade the 6th pick for a RP? I wouldn't. No one would, certainly not a rebuilding team. Probably no one.

 

 

I would trade the 6th pick for Glen Perkins. In addition to the obvious (Britton, Chapman and Miller), I would also trade it for the relief careers of Mike Montgomery, Zach Duke, Marc Rzep----, and Kevin Siegrist among others. The vast majority of number six picks just do not come anywhere close to having the career of a 'replacement level' player (I'll define as a 3 year career (i.e. reach arbitration) at whatever you say is a replacement level WAR).

 

Really? for Perkins? No way.

 

Maybe Miller. Maybe.

 

If you never gamble on upside, well, you never get upside.

 

As for looking at one pick....there are tiers in the draft, as every study shows. That was the point. Picks 1-3 have different value than 4-6 or 8 (can't recall the break point), and that value is typically more than a RP.

 

129 RPs threw at least 50 innings last year. I'd bet some never did before, and never will again. Only 22 were more valuable than a number 4/5 starter. No way you trade the number 5 pick for a random RP, vs getting a SP, let alone a good shot at a good to very good player.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Really? for Perkins? No way.

 

Maybe Miller. Maybe.

 

If you never gamble on upside, well, you never get upside.

 

.

The Jay pick was a huge gamble upside pick!

[old nurse]

This is what his college coach said of him

"He's an effective closer, but I think he could be one of the best starters in the nation. To me, he looks like a big league starter, and I've never seen a big league guy look like that for how he executes his pitches."
-- Illinois pitching coach Drew Dickinson

 

Give him a couple more years, then be all doom and gloomy.

 

[drjim]

The Jay pick was a huge gamble upside pick!

Indeed that's an interesting complaint regarding that pick.

 

My complaint is it was too much of a gamble that high. There were safer college bats available.

[jimmer]

 

Indeed that's an interesting complaint regarding that pick.

My complaint is it was too much of a gamble that high. There were safer college bats available.

Kind of like the Gibson pick.  Sometimes this team plays it too cute.  Like they are trying to prove they can find the diamonds in the rough no one else sees.

[Vanimal46]

Kind of like the Gibson pick.  Sometimes this team plays it too cute.  Like they are trying to prove they can find the diamonds in the rough no one else sees.

There certainly was a brief infatuation converting college relievers to starters... If Duffey ends up in the bullpen like some of us suggest, Jay is the final straw in that experiment.

[drjim]

Kind of like the Gibson pick. Sometimes this team plays it too cute. Like they are trying to prove they can find the diamonds in the rough no one else sees.

I actually liked the Gibson pick a lot. He was pretty highly ranked and slipped because of an injury. That strikes me a good risk in the back half of the first round. And aside from the small matter of missing Trout, his performance has absolutely justified the pick.

 

I accepted the Jay pick at the time, but never liked it.

[jimmer]

 

I actually liked the Gibson pick a lot. He was pretty highly ranked and slipped because of an injury. That strikes me a good risk in the back half of the first round. And aside from the small matter of missing Trout, his performance has absolutely justified the pick.

I accepted the Jay pick at the time, but never liked it.

I'm glad you believe Gibson has been worth the pick.

[drjim]

I'm glad you believe Gibson has been worth the pick.

Look at the draft, there are only 3 guys who are clearly better (in the 1st and 1st supplemental round), Trout and 2 guys taken before Gibson (Stasburg and Pollack). What expectations do you have?

 

EDIT: Sorry, I missed Mike Leake too. Also taken before Gibson.

[drjim]

Beyond those 4, some relivers have a higher WAR, then it is Shelby Miller, Garret Richards, and Dustin Ackley. Miller was certainly spun into a lot of value, but also drafted ahead of Gibson. Gibson might end up the best of all the rest.

 

I just don't know what you expect from 22. It was a good pick.

[gunnarthor]

 

Indeed that's an interesting complaint regarding that pick.

My complaint is it was too much of a gamble that high. There were safer college bats available.

At the time, I think the only college bats that were even mentioned as a possible landing spot for the Twins was Ian Happ and maybe Newman.  The draft was a bit weak on college bats.  Twins weren't linked to Benintendi much (although we obviously don't know all their draft thoughts).  It was mostly pitchers - Fullmer, Buehler, Whitley and Allard or HS bats like Cameron and Stephenson.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Jay pick was a huge gamble upside pick!

 

Yes it was. I hope it works.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kind of like the Gibson pick.  Sometimes this team plays it too cute.  Like they are trying to prove they can find the diamonds in the rough no one else sees.

 

I don't get this post at all. Gibson goes higher if not for a minor injury. That was the exact kind of pick a team should make, imo.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm glad you believe Gibson has been worth the pick.

 

that's actually not what he said. He said he liked the pick at the time.

[drjim]

 

At the time, I think the only college bats that were even mentioned as a possible landing spot for the Twins was Ian Happ and maybe Newman.  The draft was a bit weak on college bats.  Twins weren't linked to Benintendi much (although we obviously don't know all their draft thoughts).  It was mostly pitchers - Fullmer, Buehler, Whitley and Allard or HS bats like Cameron and Stephenson.  

 

That's true, which is a failing of scouting department. If they two most successful franchises pop a college bat right after you that is either really good (Benintendi) or on the come (Happ), it is good to look again at processes. This isn't even a hindsight complaint.

[drjim]

 

that's actually not what he said. He said he liked the pick at the time.

 

I did like the pick, and when compared to the alternatives of the draft it has actually worked out pretty well for the Twins.

 

It's not sexy, but getting decent value out of a pick in the 20s is a win. Even more so when compared to the alternatives (outside of Trout of course).

[gunnarthor]

 

That's true, which is a failing of scouting department. If they two most successful franchises pop a college bat right after you that is either really good (Benintendi) or on the come (Happ), it is good to look again at processes. This isn't even a hindsight complaint.

Well, the FO has already made that change.  

[Mike Sixel]

The success of the best hitting college players the last few drafts.....the difficulty of acquiring top ACE pitchers if you won't sign them in FA....what does a team do in the draft? 

[drjim]

 

The success of the best hitting college players the last few drafts.....the difficulty of acquiring top ACE pitchers if you won't sign them in FA....what does a team do in the draft? 

 

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers through other means, either trades or through developing high school arms selected in later rounds. True free agent aces are pretty rare anyways.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers through other means, either trades or through developing high school arms selected in later rounds. True free agent aces are pretty rare anyways.

 

Well, they have NO ONE to trade, apparently. And, how has that development gone, for most teams? You get how many HS arms that are number 2 types every year? How do you pick the right ones, over and over? 

[gunnarthor]

 

The success of the best hitting college players the last few drafts.....the difficulty of acquiring top ACE pitchers if you won't sign them in FA....what does a team do in the draft? 

Well, BPA is the cop out.  If I'm the Twins in this draft, it's going to be pretty easy. The top of the draft is going to be full of college pitchers.  Take one.  At 35 and 37 maybe you can snag someone who is falling for extra money.  The Twins are a little weak on position players in the upper levels but they have 5 former top 100 hitting prospects under 24 on the opening day roster.  So go pitching. I'm still thinking Faedo.

[drjim]

 

Well, they have NO ONE to trade, apparently. And, how has that development gone, for most teams? You get how many HS arms that are number 2 types every year? How do you pick the right ones, over and over? 

 

If they would have drafted Benintendi or Happ, for instance, they would have someone to trade for a pitcher.

[dish]

My first post!

 

Having played college baseball - admittedly not at the level of Jay... why was he a reliever when the best pitchers on most college teams are starters? You usually see the opposite - a college starter ending up as a reliever once he gets high enough in the system and hasn't shown the ability to go 6+ innings or develop quality secondary pitches that allows him to go through an mlb lineup multiple times.  See Glen Perkins.

 

I'm optimistic he can be a starter at the mlb level but if his own college coaches didn't trust him to start I question whether he can start at higher levels.  Sure pitchers mature at different rates but if he was as nasty as he is hyped up to be he should have been starting every game he could in college.  

 

It's either poor coaching that slotted him as a closer, an extreme abundance of qualified SP on the roster, or the college coaching staff didn't think he could hold up as a SP.

 

I applaud our scouts and staff for thinking outside the box for once and drafting a ton of high octane college RP to develop into SP but college coaches would have all those guys in their rotation if it was even remotely an option.

 

A closer on a college team is usually not the best pitcher on the club.  It's the guy who's got great stuff but can't harness it consistently over 6+ innings each weekend.   Those are the guys that are used in 1 or 2 inning bursts. Maybe Jay can harness that 1-2 inning dominance and stretch it to 7 innings but I have my doubts.

 

I hope I'm proven wrong but everything I've seen so far suggests he'll be a RP.

[gunnarthor]

IIRC, he was in the bullpen for two reasons - first, he was the youngest pitcher and the coach didn't want to move the older pitchers into the pen. Second, he could pitch more often and was constantly used as a fireman by Illinois.  

 

http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/illini-sports/baseball/2015-04-23/tate-jay-intriguing-prospect-pro-scouts.html

[Mike Sixel]

 

If they would have drafted Benintendi or Happ, for instance, they would have someone to trade for a pitcher.

 

You think a rebuilding team trades one of those guys for a SP?

[Vanimal46]

 

My first post!

 

Having played college baseball - admittedly not at the level of Jay... why was he a reliever when the best pitchers on most college teams are starters? You usually see the opposite - a college starter ending up as a reliever once he gets high enough in the system and hasn't shown the ability to go 6+ innings or develop quality secondary pitches that allows him to go through an mlb lineup multiple times.  See Glen Perkins.

 

I'm optimistic he can be a starter at the mlb level but if his own college coaches didn't trust him to start I question whether he can start at higher levels.  Sure pitchers mature at different rates but if he was as nasty as he is hyped up to be he should have been starting every game he could in college.  

 

It's either poor coaching that slotted him as a closer, an extreme abundance of qualified SP on the roster, or the college coaching staff didn't think he could hold up as a SP.

 

I applaud our scouts and staff for thinking outside the box for once and drafting a ton of high octane college RP to develop into SP but college coaches would have all those guys in their rotation if it was even remotely an option.

 

A closer on a college team is usually not the best pitcher on the club.  It's the guy who's got great stuff but can't harness it consistently over 6+ innings each weekend.   Those are the guys that are used in 1 or 2 inning bursts. Maybe Jay can harness that 1-2 inning dominance and stretch it to 7 innings but I have my doubts.

 

I hope I'm proven wrong but everything I've seen so far suggests he'll be a RP.

Welcome to Twins Daily! I agree with your take that the best college pitchers are in the rotation... Similar to the MLB, it's far more valuable to have a guy like Jay, Melotakis, Duffey, etc. pitch 100 innings for you instead of 40... 

If we look at it from a case by case basis, the Jay pick makes the most sense IMO. I don't mind an occasional gamble to convert a reliever to a starter.

 

As a whole, I didn't like that the past regime became infatuated with the idea they could do this with multiple arms at the same time.  

[Vanimal46]

 

IIRC, he was in the bullpen for two reasons - first, he was the youngest pitcher and the coach didn't want to move the older pitchers into the pen. Second, he could pitch more often and was constantly used as a fireman by Illinois.  

 

http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/illini-sports/baseball/2015-04-23/tate-jay-intriguing-prospect-pro-scouts.html

Even the Fighting Illini had a May vs. Pelfrey situation! And they chose Pelfrey.... 

[Intramural Legend]

It's quite interesting to read a thread like this and one like the various draft threads.

 

The draft threads are all about drafting for upside, while the reflections are all about drafting those with the lowest bust potential! 

[drjim]

 

You think a rebuilding team trades one of those guys for a SP?

 

Not this offseason.

[Twins33]

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers through other means, either trades or through developing high school arms selected in later rounds. True free agent aces are pretty rare anyways.

Which seems to be the Cubs route so far or close to it.

 

Since 2012, every one of their first rounders was a position player (no 2016 1st rounder due to Lackey signing). They had supplemental picks in 2012 too and went pitchers there.

 

Too early to call one way or another on Schwarber, but seems at least okay so far. Bryant has been all star level so far. Their 2012 pick hasn't seen much time, but has been on top 100 lists. 2015, was Happ who's been on the top 100 list too but that could just be because he's a shiny new toy to put on the list.

 

And the Cubs might still just be doing the BPA route and every time their BPA was a hitter.

 

It might make sense to lean towards hitters and then use them to get the number one or number two pitcher, but every draft is different so it has to be based on what's available in your draft slot. It's harder to draft an Ace or number two vs drafting a solid/all star type hitter. At least that's what being a Twins fan has shown me, though I don't think it's a Twins only problem.

 

I wouldn't go hitter first in this upcoming draft because I think the pitchers are better than the hitters. At least that's my feeling at this exact moment.