mlbpipeline top 100

[jimmer]

 

Average CAREER WAR by draft pick number (table dated 2009).  http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php

 

Average of of all players in the first two rounds is about 5 WAR over a career.  

 

For reference:  Kyle Gibson now has 5.8 WAR.

Yes, he's been great and I'm very wrong.  I deserve a spanking.  Moving on.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think it should ever be 100% only hitters in 1st round, but especially early it should be a pretty much surefire college arm (and even that doesn't work all time, ahem, Mark Appel).

 

I cannot emphasize this enough.  I hate it when people say "only draft a hitter" or something like that. It's a very risk averse approach that doesn't take reward into account.  And given that we like to slam the FO for being risk averse, I the idea that we should follow the Cubs model rather odd.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I cannot emphasize this enough.  I hate it when people say "only draft a hitter" or something like that. It's a very risk averse approach that doesn't take reward into account.  And given that we like to slam the FO for being risk averse, I the idea that we should follow the Cubs model rather odd.

 

Plus, the Cubs can/will buy pitching in FA. Not sure the Twins will buy a top FA ace type ever, unless they buy one that isn't, and he turns into that....

[dish]

 

I wrote the preview for TD on Tyler Jay heading into the draft.

 

You have to look at the other pitchers the Illini had on the roster. They had a REALLY good staff as a whole. 

 

Jay was a Junior, 3 of the 4 other starters they used were seniors. Those 4 starters combined to go 33-7, with what would be around a 2.40 ERA as a group.

 

In interviews, the coaches made it pretty clear that it was because they didn't need Jay to start. They needed him to close out the games from their starters. 

 

Jay also pitched over 65 innings in that role, which is an extremely high number for a college reliever. Only 1 other reliever on that staff pitched over 30 innings.

 

It was quite common if you go through the game logs that the Illinois starter would throw 6-8 innings, and Jay would polish off the game. If I remember correctly over half of his appearances were 2 innings or more.

 

Also, welcome to Twins Daily!

 

Thanks for the welcome.  Been here a while hiding in the background.

 

My question:  Why was Jay picked to be the closer and not one of the SPs?  I kind of understand the fact 3 of them were seniors but I don't buy a coach worth his salt as choosing to go with seniority over ability... and I think Jay would have been considered the guy with the best ability/talent on that staff.

[drjim]

 

Thanks for the welcome.  Been here a while hiding in the background.

 

My question:  Why was Jay picked to be the closer and not one of the SPs?  I kind of understand the fact 3 of them were seniors but I don't buy a coach worth his salt as choosing to go with seniority over ability... and I think Jay would have been considered the guy with the best ability/talent on that staff.

 

The explanation was that the coach wanted to use him for multiple games for multiple weapons. He was kind of the relief ace that is often desired in more sabr friendly analysis.

 

Doesn't make as much sense in college, imo, since they only play 2-3 games a week.

[Mike Sixel]

I think this was in this thread....

 

paul d.: Keith, getting an idea of college talent. Roughly, where would Kyle Wright rank on your Top 100? Thanks for all you do and the hard work!
Klaw: The first overall pick in the draft usually lands between 10 and 20 on my list. Last year’s, Moniak, was lower because that draft class didn’t have a clear best prospect, and I didn’t have him at #1 on my board before the draft.

Nick: Long term, do you prefer Jeren Kendall over guys like C. Ray or K. Lewis? How does he stack up vs recent OF draftees?
Klaw: Definitely have him over Ray or Lewis now, or even comparing to those guys last January.

[gunnarthor]

I think someone else posted the fangraphs guys take on Kendall as well.  He was pretty high on him, too.  If the Twins take him, I won't complain.

[Steve Lein]

 

Thanks for the welcome.  Been here a while hiding in the background.

 

My question:  Why was Jay picked to be the closer and not one of the SPs?  I kind of understand the fact 3 of them were seniors but I don't buy a coach worth his salt as choosing to go with seniority over ability... and I think Jay would have been considered the guy with the best ability/talent on that staff.

 

Like I said, the coaches didn't need, or you could add want, him to start. They wanted him to finish games and utilize him more often than once a series.

 

I'll give you a scenario: In a weekend series, you need three starters. Maybe the ace on Friday goes 7 innings. Next guy on Saturday throws 5. Sunday's guy throws 6. (Not an uncommon type of thing for Illionois starters in 2015)

 

On Friday you brought in Jay for 2 innings and he closed the door in a close game. On Saturday he gets a day of rest because maybe your team didn't need him one way or the other. On Sunday, after the starter you bring in Jay for the final 3 innings and he preserved or picked up the win again.

 

This isn't how it would always happen obviously, but in this theoretical series Jay has now impacted 2 games, and thrown 5 innings. Your starters threw 5, 6, and 7 each.

 

Is it that far-fetched to say Jay did just as much as any of the starters in that series? (BTW - this type of scenario did happen for him in 2015). There was even a game Jay threw 4 innings to finish it and pick up the win after the starter threw the first 5. (I keep remembering more and more of my research as I think about it )

 

Point with all this, even though they used Jay as a closer/reliever, HOW they used him is not even remotely typical for such a label. It's partly why many viewed him as being capable of starting as a pro.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Plus, the Cubs can/will buy pitching in FA. Not sure the Twins will buy a top FA ace type ever, unless they buy one that isn't, and he turns into that....

 

The Twins are certainly in a big enough market to where they could if they want to. They certainly wouldn't be able to do it one through five, but picking up one top end FA pitcher is reasonable... now that said, would the Pohlads do it?  I agree with you here in that I have my doubts.

 

I'm hoping Mr. Pohlad is sick of losing. I've got to think that firing TR and company was part of that and that hopefully it also means a bit more sanity when it comes to FA pickups.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I personally don't understand why it is that people are so down on him. It was no secret that adjusting from RP to SP would take some time. He started 13 games in FTM last year averaging just under 9K/9IP with a very respectable walk rate and a H/9 under 9 as well. His ERA was spectacular (2.84) and he averaged more than 5 innings a start (side note, I'm not sure if he was on a tight pitch count or not, but given the way the Twins operate, he likely was).

 

He got all of 14 innings in AA after his promotion. Yes, he didn't do well and was shut down due to injury. But 14 innings.  The workload was pretty similar to last year, except he had to adjust to pitching once every 5 days. We all want our prospects to dominate right away, but there's almost always context that has to be considered, and Jay was very dominant in high A. This really looks more like an issue with fatigue. I'd expect him to restart in AA and hopefully pitch around 110-120 innings before again returning to the pen to finish out the season.  I would consider that a fairly successful season, and I suspect Jay will find himself on plenty of top 100 lists if he can do that and put up similar numbers to his FTM campaign.