mlbpipeline top 100

[gunnarthor]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017

 

Still slowly rolling out their stuff, they do have the top 100 done but not team top 30 prospects, yet.

 

Twins have three guys in the top 100 - Gordon #50, Gonsalves #92, Kiriloff #98. Gordon and Gonsalves also are in the top 10 at their positions - shortstop and LH pitchers respectively.

[Mike Sixel]

That Jay pick......will he make anyone's top 100? Just a year or two after being picked number 5 overall?

[gunnarthor]

 

That Jay pick......will he make anyone's top 100? Just a year or two after being picked number 5 overall?

Probably.  Sickels put a B+ grade on him so he's probably in that list.  I admit I'm a bit surprised about how he's fallen on some lists.  His stuff gets strong grades - fangraphs gave him two plus pitches - but the concern about ability to start seems to be growing.  If you think he can start with that stuff, he's probably an easy top 100 guy.  If you think he's a bullpen piece, he's probably not.  It'll be a big year for him.

[Vanimal46]

Definitely a big year for Jay.... Would it be considered a failure if his career trajectory mirrored Glen Perkins? Failed starter and switch to closer for 5-6 years? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Definitely a big year for Jay.... Would it be considered a failure if his career trajectory mirrored Glen Perkins? Failed starter and switch to closer for 5-6 years? 

 

Well, we can look at the next 20 picks......

 

If trading picks were allowed, would you trade the number 5 overall pick for Perkins? Would you do that if you were a rebuilding team? 

[drjim]

 

Probably.  Sickels put a B+ grade on him so he's probably in that list.  I admit I'm a bit surprised about how he's fallen on some lists.  His stuff gets strong grades - fangraphs gave him two plus pitches - but the concern about ability to start seems to be growing.  If you think he can start with that stuff, he's probably an easy top 100 guy.  If you think he's a bullpen piece, he's probably not.  It'll be a big year for him.

 

Those concerns about starting are well founded. Didn't last that long in the rotation and ended up with an injury (albeit minor).

 

Even a dominant lefty reliever at the #5 pick is an undesirable outcome.

[Vanimal46]

 

Well, we can look at the next 20 picks......

 

If trading picks were allowed, would you trade the number 5 overall pick for Perkins? Would you do that if you were a rebuilding team? 

Nope, certainly not. It's a good thing for any draft pick to make the majors, and I think we'll see Jay in a Twins uniform at some point. If he ends up just being a closer, that will be disappointing. 

Hopefully we'll read farm reports that he's making it to the 7th inning during his starts this season. 

[bluechipper]

I'm a little surprised Fernando Romero didn't make the list. Mlb.com must not have gotten the memo on him yet.

[wagwan]

This is a problem for the Twins. High picks in years 2012, 2013, 2014,and  2015 and only 1 player in the top 50?  At 50 no less.   Buxton and Berrios are out of the list   but where are the rest?  We have a 103 loss team and nobody in the pipeline. Jay ? Stewart?  Gonsalves was a #4 pick.....  Our new front office looked at this and then promoted all the people who have done the drafting and development. That better be quite a culture they are developingi n the office.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is a problem for the Twins. High picks in years 2012, 2013, 2014,and 2015 and only 1 player in the top 50? At 50 no less. Buxton and Berrios are out of the list but where are the rest? We have a 103 loss team and nobody in the pipeline. Jay ? Stewart? Gonsalves was a #4 pick..... Our new front office looked at this and then promoted all the people who have done the drafting and development. That better be quite a culture they are developingi n the office.

Gonsalves was a 4th ROUND pick, not a #4 overall pick.

That's a home run if they get a 4th or 5th starter for a few years, which would appear to be his floor at this point.

[T_J]

It looks rough right now. Some of the younger guys like Daiz and Javier will be future top 100 guys. They, also, have something like 4 draft picks in the top 75. I would bet that by this time next year, they will have plenty more names on the top 100 list. 

[wagwan]

 

Gonsalves was a 4th ROUND pick, not a #4 overall pick.
That's a home run if they get a 4th or 5th starter for a few years, which would appear to be his floor at this point.

Yes I know he was a 4th round pick  that is what I meant to say. And the point was that out of the mere three guys in the top 100 one was a 4th round pick. Gordon was a first  rounder but Kiriloff was from last year when the pick was lower due to the team's one year of success.  Where are the rest of the picks? Before Gonsalves that year they picked Kohl Stewart 4th, Ryan Eades at 43 overall and Stuart Turner at 78.  Washouts. After Gordon they picked Nick Burdi at 46. Will he ever pitch again? Tyler Jay was 6th overall. Guess who was #7? Andrew Benintendi, just named the number ONE overall prospect in baseball. What are the Twins doing wrong!!

[wagwan]

The Tyler Jay draft might really prove to be a all time bad one.  After The Twins took Jay, and the Red Sox took Benintendi, the White Sox took Carson Fulmer who is on their 25 man roster and the Cubs took Ian Happ, now their #1 prospect.

 

Bleak bleak bleak

[Seth Stohs]

 

That Jay pick......will he make anyone's top 100? Just a year or two after being picked number 5 overall?

 

Might be part of the reason that Deron Johnson got his "promotion" and Sean Johnson is now the Scouting Director. 

 

Though I certainly am far from down on Jay. He's a very good prospect.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Tyler Jay draft might really prove to be a all time bad one.  After The Twins took Jay, and the Red Sox took Benintendi, the White Sox took Carson Fulmer who is on their 25 man roster and the Cubs took Ian Happ, now their #1 prospect.

 

Bleak bleak bleak

 

I'm sorry, but wasn't the 2015 draft like a year and a half ago? 

 

I wasn't a fan of the Jay pick at that level, and I do think he'll end up being a very good bullpen arm. Or a solid starter. He's got great stuff. There's nothing wrong with Jay.

 

Let's see where these guys are in like 5 years. 

[wagwan]

Jay is fine but the other guys are elite. At best Jay will be a reliever in the 6th inning some day. The Red Sox are going to bat Benintendi #2 in their order this year. Fulmer is pitching this year for the Sox. The Twins just flat out missed these guys. And they have had 4 years of high picks .. almost all misses.

Their top rated prospect should not be at #50

[drjim]

Jay is fine but the other guys are elite. At best Jay will be a reliever in the 6th inning some day. The Red Sox are going to bat Benintendi #2 in their order this year. Fulmer is pitching this year for the Sox. The Twins just flat out missed these guys. And they have had 4 years of high picks .. almost all misses.

Their top rated prospect should not be at #50

At best Jay is a #2 starter. He's not that bad of a prospect, 100ish in baseball, but certainly not what you want from the puck.

 

Missing on Benintendi is a disaster, but I wouldn't weep about Fulmer yet. The draft isn't a race to the bigs.

[Mike Sixel]

I haven't given up on Jay, but it doesn't look stellar where we sit now. 

[Lefty74]

Jay is fine but the other guys are elite. At best Jay will be a reliever in the 6th inning some day. The Red Sox are going to bat Benintendi #2 in their order this year. Fulmer is pitching this year for the Sox. The Twins just flat out missed these guys. And they have had 4 years of high picks .. almost all misses.

Their top rated prospect should not be at #50

While it is early to evaluate the 2015 draft class we should all be concerned. To continually miss on prospects is really troubling. Equally troubling to me is that the new regime seemed to swap the deck chairs instead of making sweeping changes in the scouting department. I think most people were expecting a house cleaning.

[crapforks]

 

While it is early to evaluate the 2015 draft class we should all be concerned. To continually miss on prospects is really troubling. Equally troubling to me is that the new regime seemed to swap the deck chairs instead of making sweeping changes in the scouting department. I think most people were expecting a house cleaning.

I don't know that a big, sweeping change in the scouting department is something that any team would want. It depends on what sweeping means to you, but to let go of the majority of the staff and replace them would probably leave the whole unit in shambles. Even if you replace every staff member with someone more experienced, you would have communication issues and bumps in the road learning a new system. I certainly hope for the system to be overhauled and improved, but I would like to see yearly moves that don't tear down the existing system. Hiring outside talent, bringing in some old-school scouts to work with some of the stat-savvy additions. Bring in a bunch of young SABR guys and have them work with some 60+yr old scouts. And make them not kill each other.

[bluechipper]

 

Jay is fine but the other guys are elite. At best Jay will be a reliever in the 6th inning some day. The Red Sox are going to bat Benintendi #2 in their order this year. Fulmer is pitching this year for the Sox. The Twins just flat out missed these guys. And they have had 4 years of high picks .. almost all misses.
Their top rated prospect should not be at #50

Carson Fulmer has worse minor league numbers than Tyler Jay, and his MLB time was similar to Berrios. The health of Jay is a concern, but I'd still take him over Fulmer, who is probably going to be a reliever too.

[gunnarthor]

It's also important to remember to take these rankings as just one piece.  There are a lot of rankings out there.  I like mlbpipeline the best but it's worth noting that Klaw had 5 Twins in his top 100, Sickels likely does too (he gave 5 Twins B+ grades).  While fangraphs only gave one Twin a future 55 value, I'm not sure their top 100 list won't have 50 FV guys on it which would open the door for a few Twins.  

 

More importantly, we can see if there are any broad consensus on our guys.  The write-ups on Jay, for example, all tend to say more or less the same thing - good stuff, might not be a starter.  

[mikelink45]

Is it the draft or the development of players?  I do not know, but it seems as if there are two aspects to this and based on how prepared for the transition that Buxton, Berrios, and others have been I am concerned about the pipeline for developing them.  I am also concerned that we have not put more minority coaches in place.  The new hitting coach having a system wide meeting was good and I hope there is some direct follow up.  

 

There are a lot of scouting services and a lot of shared information now.  If it is the draft and the FO listened to the scouts than a sweeping change might be required. 

[DocBauer]

Just speaking about Jay in particular, because he's mentioned so prominently in this thread, and not multiple picks. Not only is it way too early to state whether or not he will be good, or how good, or starters or reliever, but being a quality MLB pitcher in any capacity is a good thing...#5 pick or not. The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot in all of sport. Over the years I have sent countless top, can't miss prospects who wash out or never become what they are supposed to be. (This is not a Twins phenomenon)

 

Jay has the pitches to start and be quite good. Are there questions about this conversion such as endurance and the sheer "pitchability" factor that would allow him to pitch to hitters multiple times in a game? Absolutely. But isn't this also true of any starting Pitching prospect? Considering how few prospects from every team'should yearly draft become real quality major leaguers for any kind of valuable and sustained career, if he turns out to be a very good set up or closing lefty, I will be pleased. Is that a bit disappointing for the #5 pick in a draft? I think you could make that arguement. But a bit disappointing is as far as I would go. Having a top quality LHRP in your bullpen...1 guy out of only 7 per team is still a finite number...is very valuable and shouldn't be dismissed as any kind of mistake or blown pick.

[gunnarthor]

 

Is it the draft or the development of players?  I do not know, but it seems as if there are two aspects to this and based on how prepared for the transition that Buxton, Berrios, and others have been I am concerned about the pipeline for developing them.  I am also concerned that we have not put more minority coaches in place.  The new hitting coach having a system wide meeting was good and I hope there is some direct follow up.  There are a lot of scouting services and a lot of shared information now.  If it is the draft and the FO listened to the scouts that a sweeping change might be required. 

Personally, I'm in the camp that thinks Brad Steil and the development staff have done a very good job since taking over in 2012.  Since then, we've seen players pushed up levels much faster than before and we've seen players break out that you wouldn't really expect.  Berrios was a supp pick, Kepler and Polanco broke out after 2012 and both were very modest international signees, Gonsalves was a 4th rounder, the 2012 draft has already given us 5 guys to make the majors.

 

So I think we're doing a good job of pushing talent.  The bigger issue - which I think is on the ML staff and not the development guys - is the stumbling of a lot of that talent once they make the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just speaking about Jay in particular, because he's mentioned so prominently in this thread, and not multiple picks. Not only is it way too early to state whether or not he will be good, or how good, or starters or reliever, but being a quality MLB pitcher in any capacity is a good thing...#5 pick or not. The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot in all of sport. Over the years I have sent countless top, can't miss prospects who wash out or never become what they are supposed to be. (This is not a Twins phenomenon)

Jay has the pitches to start and be quite good. Are there questions about this conversion such as endurance and the sheer "pitchability" factor that would allow him to pitch to hitters multiple times in a game? Absolutely. But isn't this also true of any starting Pitching prospect? Considering how few prospects from every team'should yearly draft become real quality major leaguers for any kind of valuable and sustained career, if he turns out to be a very good set up or closing lefty, I will be pleased. Is that a bit disappointing for the #5 pick in a draft? I think you could make that arguement. But a bit disappointing is as far as I would go. Having a top quality LHRP in your bullpen...1 guy out of only 7 per team is still a finite number...is very valuable and shouldn't be dismissed as any kind of mistake or blown pick.

 

Well, that's just not how to judge the 5th overall pick.....the question was asked in a chat today, about another minor league RP....

 

only 22 RP in all of baseball generated more than 1.2 WAR last year. A 4th/5th starter does that with his eyes closed (not a 8th starter, like the Twins....). That's nearly replacement level, and not really a good return for the 5th overall pick.

 

Would you trade the 5th overall pick for a RP right now? I wouldn't.

[gunnarthor]

OK, first, Jay was the #6 pick, not #5.  That's bugging me.

 

But frankly, if Jay is only a reliever for the Twins but is a healthy reliever for six years, he probably is one of the better #6 picks in the last twenty years.  The reality is that most don't make it either through injury or poor play.  Here's a list of the recent #6 selections - Alex Jackson (bust track), Colin Moran, Albert Almora, Rendon, (all three made the majors although Rendon's been busted up a lot, Moran doesn't seem anything more than a regular at best), Barret Loux, Zack Wheeler (1.8 WAR in 52 games, hurt arm), Kyle Skipworth (4 games), Ross Detwiler, Andrew Miller (converted starter into bullpen super weapon), Ricky Romero (third best WAR of this group), Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Harvey and then Greinke in 2002.  

 

If Jay is a bullpen arm, I think we can label it a disappointing pick but certainly not a bust.  And if he's a dominating bullpen arm like Miller, maybe some of that disappoint me rubs away.  If he's Terry Leach, maybe a bit more disappointment.  

 

Making the majors is hard.  Really, really hard. A good draft might be two players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK, first, Jay was the #6 pick, not #5.  That's bugging me.

 

But frankly, if Jay is only a reliever for the Twins but is a healthy reliever for six years, he probably is one of the better #6 picks in the last twenty years.  The reality is that most don't make it either through injury or poor play.  Here's a list of the recent #6 selections - Alex Jackson (bust track), Colin Moran, Albert Almora, Rendon, (all three made the majors although Rendon's been busted up a lot, Moran doesn't seem anything more than a regular at best), Barret Loux, Zack Wheeler (1.8 WAR in 52 games, hurt arm), Kyle Skipworth (4 games), Ross Detwiler, Andrew Miller (converted starter into bullpen super weapon), Ricky Romero (third best WAR of this group), Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Harvey and then Greinke in 2002.  

 

If Jay is a bullpen arm, I think we can label it a disappointing pick but certainly not a bust.  And if he's a dominating bullpen arm like Miller, maybe some of that disappoint me rubs away.  If he's Terry Leach, maybe a bit more disappointment.  

 

Making the majors is hard.  Really, really hard. A good draft might be two players.

 

well, maybe those 6th picks were bad, and that year the 8th or 10th player was great/good. It isn't about "6th pick"...how about pick between 6 and 12? 

 

If you won't sign expensive FAs and you have no veterans to trade, getting a RP for the 6th pick sucks. Big time. 

 

Less than 25 RPs put up more than replacement level WAR last year.......

 

Would you trade the 6th pick for a RP? I wouldn't. No one would, certainly not a rebuilding team. Probably no one.

[gunnarthor]

 

well, maybe those 6th picks were bad, and that year the 8th or 10th player was great/good. It isn't about "6th pick"...how about pick between 6 and 12? 

 

If you won't sign expensive FAs and you have no veterans to trade, getting a RP for the 6th pick sucks. Big time. 

 

Less than 25 RPs put up more than replacement level WAR last year.......

 

Would you trade the 6th pick for a RP? I wouldn't. No one would, certainly not a rebuilding team. Probably no one.

Would you trade that pick for Andrew Miller?  I suspect many would.

 

I agree with you in the abstract.  I want Jay to be a starter, not a reliever.  But if he makes the majors as a reliever, he wouldn't be a bust, IMHO.  And, at the time we selected him, I wanted Daz Cameron, so what do I know.  The Jay pick was a good one at the time and he'll likely make the majors (barring an injury of course).  

[TRex]

 

well, maybe those 6th picks were bad, and that year the 8th or 10th player was great/good. It isn't about "6th pick"...how about pick between 6 and 12? 

... so your rule for a 'non-bad' pick is that they have to out-perform every single prospect that was drafted between round 6-12? I just don't think that is how the MLB draft works. I would think that almost every team that drafts 6th would fail under those conditions.

 

 

Quote 

Less than 25 RPs put up more than replacement level WAR last year.......

 

... and what is the correlation between cumulative team, or bullpen, WAR and winning the pennant?

 

Actually, with the current focus on shut-down bullpens, I bet there is a better correlation with bullpen WAR than team WAR.

 

 

Quote

Would you trade the 6th pick for a RP? I wouldn't. No one would, certainly not a rebuilding team. Probably no one.

 

 

I would trade the 6th pick for Glen Perkins. In addition to the obvious (Britton, Chapman and Miller), I would also trade it for the relief careers of Mike Montgomery, Zach Duke, Marc Rzep----, and Kevin Siegrist among others. The vast majority of number six picks just do not come anywhere close to having the career of a 'replacement level' player (I'll define as a 3 year career (i.e. reach arbitration) at whatever you say is a replacement level WAR).