Article: How The Twins Could Lose Another 100 Games

[laloesch]

 

If a deal of that kind can be found, I'd jump all over it... But I'm skeptical a team out there is that interested in Polanco or Rosario. I just don't see much of a market for those guys, particularly Rosario. A team like Tampa likely glances at his swing rate and contact rate and immediately says to the Twins:

 

http://www.blinkydog.com/wp-content/uploads/Dogs-Do-Not-Want-2.jpg

 

Not to change the subject but that pic. reminds me of my lab through age 3.  Crazy crazy crazy. 

Edited January 27, 2017 by laloesch

[Tom Froemming]

 

If a deal of that kind can be found, I'd jump all over it... But I'm skeptical a team out there is that interested in Polanco or Rosario. I just don't see much of a market for those guys, particularly Rosario. A team like Tampa likely glances at his swing rate and contact rate and immediately says to the Twins:

 

http://www.blinkydog.com/wp-content/uploads/Dogs-Do-Not-Want-2.jpg

 

Yeah but ...

 

Eddie Rosario: 25.2 K%, 74.2 contact%

Mallex Smith: 22.3 K%, 73.1 contact%

 

I think Tampa's main motivation was to dump Smyly's salary. 

[Oxtung]

 

That's my concern too.  If we pass on risky moves because of value, we're basically relying on internal improvements and draftees to save us.  It's hard to see a staff of this age (save May and Berrios) making sizable strides and draftees take time.

 

So that means we're burning through time we have this young offensive core together.  

 

I loved the Castro signing, but I really hope we see a plan forming soon.  This feels so much like Ryan's regime is still in charge that it's frustrating.

 

So how do you feel about extensions right now for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc....? Assuming they would be amenable, of course. Yeah there is quite a bit of risk there it would extend the window of competitiveness while we wait for the young pitchers to develop.

 

Another bonus here is they might be able to front load some of those extensions since the Twins aren't using all their current payroll and then 4-5 years from now the Twins would have extra cash on hand to sign a big FA.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

If a deal of that kind can be found, I'd jump all over it... But I'm skeptical a team out there is that interested in Polanco or Rosario. I just don't see much of a market for those guys, particularly Rosario. A team like Tampa likely glances at his swing rate and contact rate and immediately says to the Twins:

 

 

I think getting lost in this conversation a bit is Tom's original point: how do you put a championship caliber pitching staff around Sano/Buxton/Kepler if indeed they develop into a championship caliber offense?  When do you reach into your prospects if you aren't willing to deal vets?

 

And that window might be coming faster than people realize.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

So how do you feel about extensions right now for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc....? Assuming they would be amenable, of course. Yeah there is quite a bit of risk there it would extend the window of competitiveness while we wait for the young pitchers to develop.

 

Another bonus here is they might be able to front load some of those extensions since the Twins aren't using all their current payroll and then 4-5 years from now the Twins would have extra cash on hand to sign a big FA.

 

Right now i'd only consider it for Kepler and Sano but it would depend on the details.  I don't mind the thinking at all if the details make sense.

 

But front loading is a pretty rare thing, especially if you're extending a young player.  It's good in theory, but it just doesn't happen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think getting lost in this conversation a bit is Tom's original point: how do you put a championship caliber pitching staff around Sano/Buxton/Kepler if indeed they develop into a championship caliber offense?  When do you reach into your prospects if you aren't willing to deal vets?

 

And that window might be coming faster than people realize.  

No arguments from me, I just think it's a bit early to show concern.

 

If radical roster changes don't happen on the fly in the first half of the season, I'll begin to show concern. If obvious trades need to happen at the deadline and don't, I'll become more concerned. If we see another slow offseason in 10 months, then I'll be legitimately concerned.

 

Falvey and Levine have a lot on their plate. I have no idea what order they're tackling their biggest concerns (or even the order of their concerns). Time (and action) will begin to tell more of a story.

[Vanimal46]

So how do you feel about extensions right now for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc....? Assuming they would be amenable, of course. Yeah there is quite a bit of risk there it would extend the window of competitiveness while we wait for the young pitchers to develop.

 

Another bonus here is they might be able to front load some of those extensions since the Twins aren't using all their current payroll and then 4-5 years from now the Twins would have extra cash on hand to sign a big FA.

Buxton and Sano would be relatively safe extension candidates. Buxton should continue to provide elite defense, and if the bat comes around, even better. Sano may be playing out of position right now, but once Mauer is gone he could be a 30+ HR 1B or DH.

 

7 years, let's say $85-95 million a piece.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So how do you feel about extensions right now for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc....? Assuming they would be amenable, of course. Yeah there is quite a bit of risk there it would extend the window of competitiveness while we wait for the young pitchers to develop.

 

Another bonus here is they might be able to front load some of those extensions since the Twins aren't using all their current payroll and then 4-5 years from now the Twins would have extra cash on hand to sign a big FA.

 

Teams don't front load contracts, unless you mean bonuses.

 

I don't know how you extend Polanco right now, he doesn't even have a position. I can't see, given the years they had, the other three would accept whatever was offered, frankly. I do think they should try to figure out how to make it happen, but I don't think it does this season, unless something happens in the first half to make both sides more sure who the player is...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know if I'd be more eager to see a Kepler or Sano extension.

 

Sano will likely be a more valuable player but I think Kepler could be had on the cheap.

 

Buxton isn't really on my radar right now. He'd want a lot of money - far beyond his performance to this point - and I'd lock down Sano before considering Buxton. Sano has a lower ceiling but much higher floor (ie. it's unlikely Sano will be out of baseball or a bench bat any time soon).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Buxton and Sano would be relatively safe extension candidates. Buxton should continue to provide elite defense, and if the bat comes around, even better. Sano may be playing out of position right now, but once Mauer is gone he could be a 30+ HR 1B or DH.

7 years, let's say $85-95 million a piece.

 

No chance, zero, Sano or Buxton do that. If Buxton can hit at all, he's an All Star type player. No way he settles for that money. And I'm not sure Sano even needs to be more than a DH to make about 2-3x that much money either, not if he maintains a high OBP to go with the HRs.

 

Double those numbers, and you might get a conversation going.

[jimmer]

Based on just the value Buxton should provide on his defense alone, I woukd likely try to extend him this year. He is very likely a 3 WAR player right now. I would go out on a limb and say his offense will get a bit better.

 

I have concerns about Sano, so I would wait until he hits arbitration years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think getting lost in this conversation a bit is Tom's original point: how do you put a championship caliber pitching staff around Sano/Buxton/Kepler if indeed they develop into a championship caliber offense?  When do you reach into your prospects if you aren't willing to deal vets?

 

And that window might be coming faster than people realize.  

 

Next year may be an opportunity to lock up one spot in FA.  The names slated to be there certainly look good.  But yeah, I think they'd have to trade prospects for good young pitching as an option. 

 

Then again, Berrios could turn into that guy, Gibson could turn back into 2015 Gibson, and May could pick up where he left off.  Suddenly, that window would look very close.  That's a lot of hope there, but not unreasonable hope either. But if that doesn't happen, you're right.  They'd need to. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 WAR player, who plays elite defense, and could possibly hit and steal bases....who is 22 or so, what would that fetch on the open market? 5-7 years....150MM I'd guess. And, he'd want that shorter length so he could be a FA again.....

[Vanimal46]

No chance, zero, Sano or Buxton do that. If Buxton can hit at all, he's an All Star type player. No way he settles for that money. And I'm not sure Sano even needs to be more than a DH to make about 2-3x that much money either, not if he maintains a high OBP to go with the HRs.

 

Double those numbers, and you might get a conversation going.

I don't know if they'd need to double the numbers right now. They're both going to make ~$500k the next 2 years (unless Sano is 1 year ahead in service time? Didn't look it up) then anywhere between $40-60 million in arbitration if they're really good. Buying out the first year or 2 of FA would be where it gets very expensive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I say it every year but I'd like to see a team push for a more front-loaded contract. Not entirely front-loaded, just a little more so than most contracts.

 

Think of the difference it could make to the 2020-2022 Twins if you could give Sano or Buxton $6-8m more per year in 2017-2019 if it meant you got them for $20m a season instead of $25m-30m per season through their 2021-2023 campaigns.

 

You're looking at around $15m extra per season, which will equate to a stop-gap starting player or a couple of decent bullpen pieces.

 

And I have a hard time seeing either Buxton or Sano readily turn down making $9m next season instead of just $500k or $1m.

[Mike Sixel]

Businesses don't run that way, Brock. PV of money, and all. Especially if you think inflation is coming back.....

[drivlikejehu]

 

3 WAR player, who plays elite defense, and could possibly hit and steal bases....who is 22 or so, what would that fetch on the open market? 5-7 years....150MM I'd guess. And, he'd want that shorter length so he could be a FA again.....

 

The problem is risk. Holding out exposes players to a lot of it. Arbitration isn't a great deal, either:

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/calculating-mlb-arbitration-percentages/

 

For Buxton, just spitballing-

 

Salary by year (est.)

2017: 550k

2018: 575k

2019: 8m

2020: 10m

2021: 14m

 

Let's say he values his first two years of free agency at $50 million. Offering him $85 million would pretty much be fair market value, with the only downside being that as a 2022 free agent he would command a lot of additional years and guaranteed dollars. But this way, his risk level plummets and he still hits free agency in his prime.

Edited January 27, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Mike Sixel]

I'd bet those arb numbers are low, but maybe I overstated my position some......maybe you are all closer than I thought. From the Twins' side, if your numbers are close, why are they offering him close to market value? They are then, if your numbers are right, assuming all the risk, aren't they?

[Doomtints]

 

Are they, though?

 

They had one legitimate shot to improve the rotation: Jose De Leon.

 

That didn't work out and we don't know who to blame for that non-move.

 

Given the complete lack of options in free agency, I can't blame this front office for preferring to run with the likes of Gibson, Berrios, May, Meija, Duffey, et al. In my opinion, those guys have the same chance of success as anyone on the free agent pitching market and they're all cheap and controlled (excluding Santiago).

 

I'm a bit disappointed in the complete lack of action in the bullpen, though. But I'll wait it out and see if they have a plan for Opening Day.

 

OK, so they might be the 14th worst staff in the AL instead of the 15th with the same staff if they all improve.

 

Even the rookie free agent market probably has a few guys on it who have a sub-5.00 ERA potential.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'd bet those arb numbers are low, but maybe I overstated my position some......maybe you are all closer than I thought. From the Twins' side, if your numbers are close, why are they offering him close to market value? They are then, if your numbers are right, assuming all the risk, aren't they?

 

Keep in mind that arbitration calcs are not based on advanced metrics, so defense tends to be underrated. Buxton in particular is likely to be undervalued in arbitration, while Sano for instance might be overvalued.

 

The value concept for an early extension is complicated because there are so many variables. I'm not sure off the top of my head what I'd consider reasonable for any of the Twins young position players. A lot depends on the individual players' appetite for risk. 

 

Early extensions are the only real form of front-loading you see in MLB contracts - technically the player's salary rises over the years, but in reality the increase compared to automatic renewal/arbitration in early years is effectively being transferred from the later years. So from the Twins side, I like the idea of considering early deals, I just don't know how practical it is given the level of uncertainty.

Edited January 27, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Vanimal46]

Regardless if the Twins extend Buxton or Sano now, or 3-4 years down the line, I hope both are in Twins uniforms through their age 30-31 season. After that, I probably won't care if someone else pays them $$$$ for their declining years (unless they're HOF bound, of course)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Has anyone ever made 8M in their first year of arb?  I think that's a big high personally.

 

To Brock's point, ML contracts are guaranteed, so WHEN the payout happens shouldn't be as big of a deal.  But, there is something tied to years of service and those numbers, so to make that work, they have to go up to an extent.  That's where the arbitration metrics are derived from.  You might be able to do a 1 time signing bonus of say 10M  to reduce those back end numbers a bit (especially the FA years), but I think the arb years are a big reason why that's discouraged.

[Mike Sixel]

When money is paid is a pretty big deal to those that have the money......

[Vanimal46]

 

Has anyone ever made 8M in their first year of arb?  I think that's a big high personally.

 

To Brock's point, ML contracts are guaranteed, so WHEN the payout happens shouldn't be as big of a deal.  But, there is something tied to years of service and those numbers, so to make that work, they have to go up to an extent.  That's where the arbitration metrics are derived from.  You might be able to do a 1 time signing bonus of say 10M  to reduce those back end numbers a bit (especially the FA years), but I think the arb years are a big reason why that's discouraged.

Yeah $8 MM for the first year of arbitration is a bit aggressive. Hell, Machado and Harper were at $5 million for their first arbitration year before jumping up to $11 and $13 MM respectively this year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Businesses don't run that way, Brock. PV of money, and all. Especially if you think inflation is coming back.....

Oh, I realize that, but pro sports are something of an exception to pure business concerns, as they sometimes diminish the importance of profit or they view it differently.

 

Put in different terms, a front-loaded contract could be considered more along the lines of R&D than traditional operating expense.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yeah $8 MM for the first year of arbitration is a bit aggressive. Hell, Machado and Harper were at $5 million for their first arbitration year before jumping up to $11 and $13 MM respectively this year. 

 

Yeah the distribution was off there, I didn't think about it too hard. But the total is probably ballpark in today's dollars if Buxton doesn't really turn into a great hitter.

 

Brock Beauchamp, on 27 Jan 2017 - 2:52 PM, said:
Oh, I realize that, but pro sports are something of an exception to pure business concerns, as they sometimes diminish the importance of profit or they view it differently.

Put in different terms, a front-loaded contract could be considered more along the lines of R&D than traditional operating expense.

 

 

Businesses have prepaid or advance salary expenses all the time, just not as far out. I don't see it as a different type of cost.

Edited January 27, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah the distribution was off there, I didn't think about it too hard. But the total is probably ballpark in today's dollars if Buxton doesn't really turn into a great hitter.

No problem, we're all just spit-balling here. You and I seem to be close on the total comp number of $85-95 million for this hypothetical Buxton extension. 

[Doomtints]

Every business of this size knows how to handle deferred revenue and deferred expenses as clients typically pay them on the yearly or monthly level (or whatever) and paying bills is usually at the yearly or monthly level (or whatever).  

 

The Pohlad accountants are probably high experts on deferred revenue tactics and heck maybe they even invented the ****.  

 

What can we do to get Hollywood Rockstar Pohlad brother Bill to run the team?  His film production resume is impressive and I bet he knows how to get stuff done.  

Edited January 27, 2017 by Doomtints

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah the distribution was off there, I didn't think about it too hard. But the total is probably ballpark in today's dollars if Buxton doesn't really turn into a great hitter.

 

 

Businesses have prepaid or advance salary expenses all the time, just not as far out. I don't see it as a different type of cost.

But sports' labor expense isn't a typical labor expense. It's closer to a materials expense.

 

In no other industry does a person go from a $500k expense to a $35m expense in 6-7 years. And in few other industries is the labor the actual product.

 

Sports don't work in pure business terms. There's a lot of overlap but they're not the same.

[Lonestar]

IIRC, the Twins were going to slightly reduce payroll in 2017. That would lower Falvine's flexibility for certain initiatives - especially while they were waiting for the Dozier trade resolution and then ending up with his salary.