Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[Mike Sixel]

 

His value might go down but the return might go up.  Let's say he was worth $2 today and the Dodgers were only offering half that (which, frankly, if it was De Leon and junk sounds about right).  So the Dodgers are giving us a buck.  Let's say we move him at the break and his value is now only $1.50.  But someone is willing to pay us 70% instead of 50%.  We've made 5 cents.  And that, I think, is the big problem.  De Leon and junk came nowhere near Dozier's value so it was an obvious turn-down, regardless of what might or might not happen down the road.

 

Uh, I was responding to a very specific offer:

 

Stewart and De Leon. not sure what your post is about at all.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Alvarez, Buehler, etc. -- none of those guys individually brings the value of De Leon at the moment, and by the time you add other prospects, those packages will likely hurt more than the De Leon-led package.

 

It's possible that the Dodgers had a pessimistic take on De Leon too.  But he was also clearly their best chip for reasons other than that.  Keeping De Leon for depth this year, and trading away, say, Alvarez plus Calhoun instead to fill 2B, isn't necessarily in the best long-term interests of the Dodgers either, even if they liked De Leon just fine.

 

There is no evidence to support this. Opinions are split among outside prospect evaluators, some of whom prefer several other Dodgers' prospect to De Leon. Actual MLB offices may be even more in favor of guys like Alvarez & Bellinger.

[drjim]

 

Has anyone, anywhere on the entire planet, said they are 1 trade away?

 

Also, do we actually expect Dozier's value to go up at this point? That someone will make a better offer than Stewart and JDL (which is the offer I am criticizing them for not taking, since that's the post I was responding to)?

 

While wrestling with who said what is fun, I never accused you (or anyone else on the planet) of saying that. Those were my words.

 

My point is that there is no reason to be forced into a trade that you don't think is fair value. Perhaps it makes sense to do that for one last, key piece, but it is going to be a long process to reload the farm system. Feeling you have to do something is a recipe for bad moves.

 

If De Leon and Stewart were on the table, which is an if (and frankly, doesn't do it for me anyways), it is not that big of a stretch to find a scenario where they can match that in the future. Dozier's value is probably at its highest right now, but the market demand is probably at the lowest.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Didn't Passan say the Dodgers viewed JDL as a lesser talent than Buehler?

Something like that, although he didn't say "lesser talent":

 

"Jose DeLeon is really well-regarded among scouts and prospect watchers. Internally, Dodgers think Urias, Alvarez and Buehler are better."

 

Doesn't say better what. Probably not a better talent today, just due to the experience and readiness gap. Better future value? Better odds of gaining value in 2017? Alvarez and Buehler have nowhere to go but up. A MLB ready SP prospect in 2019 is better for the Dodgers than a MLB ready SP prospect in 2017.  Not necessarily a huge knock on De Leon, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was how they ordered them.

 

I think the Twins demands would have been the same or higher, though, if you subbed Alvarez or Buehler in for De Leon.  Whatever you gain in liking "stuff" more, you almost certainly lose by considering distance to the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is no evidence to support this. Opinions are split among outside prospect evaluators, some of whom prefer several other Dodgers' prospect to De Leon. Actual MLB offices may be even more in favor of guys like Alvarez & Bellinger.

Unless I am missing something, De Leon is pretty universally ranked much higher than Buehler.  A few places give an edge to Alvarez, but perhaps they are more upside-oriented? Fangraphs FV, Law... BA has Alvarez one spot higher but no Buehler in their Dodgers top 10 so I don't know what to make of that.

 

I have no doubt that plenty of folks prefer the upside of Alvarez and perhaps even Buehler over that of De Leon, but that doesn't mean they'd carry equal value in a trade today.  That value has to balance upside and risk, and a fair component of risk is experience and readiness (not that De Leon is without risk himself, but he has more and better experience than Alvarez and especially Buehler right now).

 

Alvarez maybe could lead a trade like De Leon could today, under the right circumstances.  Not sure if the present-day Twins or Rays would have necessarily been those circumstances.  I guess that gets us back to the initial response to Dave's rumor which was De Leon or Alvarez but not both.

 

I highly doubt Buehler would carry the same value in trade as De Leon today.

[gunnarthor]

 

I can't wait to play the Rays this year and watch Sano hit a 3 run jack off the outer catwalk against JDL. Guy stinks.

Didn't Sano hit something like a 500 foot double there off the catwalk that ended up costing us the game?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If De Leon and Stewart were on the table, which is an if (and frankly, doesn't do it for me anyways), it is not that big of a stretch to find a scenario where they can match that in the future. Dozier's value is probably at its highest right now, but the market demand is probably at the lowest.

De Leon plus Stewart is actually kind of a special case, though.  Even if you could match that later by prospect ranking, the fact that they are both MLB ready SP has to count for something given the Twins situation.

 

Just to use Dodgers prospects for illustrative purposes since we are all intimately familiar with them now, Verdugo plus White might be comparable in straight value but not as useful (and not as immediate).

[drjim]

 

De Leon plus Stewart is actually kind of a special case, though.  Even if you could match that later by prospect ranking, the fact that they are both MLB ready SP has to count for something given the Twins situation.

 

Just to use Dodgers prospects for illustrative purposes since we are all intimately familiar with them now, Verdugo plus White might be comparable in straight value but not as useful (and not as immediate).

 

Maybe, but I would much rather go for upside guys than another projected backend guy, even if mlb ready. Perhaps an optimistic way for me to look at it, but the Twins don't have "holes" per se in the rotation, in the sense they have bodies that will fill it out to start the season, and they have some AAA/AA depth, but they really lack impact talent. I'm not sure Stewart does much to remedy their rotation situation in the long run.

 

De Leon certainly would help, but I do wonder if much of his value comes from proximity rather than upside. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe, but I would much rather go for upside guys than another projected backend guy, even if mlb ready. Perhaps an optimistic way for me to look at it, but the Twins don't have "holes" per se in the rotation, in the sense they have bodies that will fill it out to start the season, and they have some AAA/AA depth, but they really lack impact talent. I'm not sure Stewart does much to remedy their rotation situation in the long run.

 

De Leon certainly would help, but I do wonder if much of his value comes from proximity rather than upside. 

 

I think Stewart is under appreciated. A couple years as a pitcher, and already a MLB starter. I agree, I'd rather have a legit star, but no one offered that for Dozier. Maybe the Twins will get lucky, and a new suitor will emerge, but I find it hard to believe they'll net two number 3-5 SPs for him in the future.

[Willihammer]

 

Didn't Sano hit something like a 500 foot double there off the catwalk that ended up costing us the game?

He hit one of the upper walks, which resulted in an in-play ball, but it was headed out.

First guy to hit it IIRC.

[nicksaviking]

 

did no one left behind learn anything? Were they just left barren of intellect when he left?

 

I doubt it, but I also doubt he left the intellect behind when he went to LA. Just because a guy is good at his job doesn't mean his pupils are guaranteed to be any good.

 

I'm probably forgetting someone but I can't recall any good pitching prospects that TB has traded for since Friedman has left. In fact I can't think of any trades that TB has made recently that have been much of a benefit to the club.

 

Edit: Looking at recent trades, I don't see anything that says they've been getting any quality players back. Wow did they get the short end of the three-team deal that included Trea Turner and Will Myers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I doubt it, but I also doubt he left the intellect behind when he went to LA. Just because a guy is good at his job doesn't mean his pupils are guaranteed to be any good.

 

I'm probably forgetting someone but I can't recall any good pitching prospects that TB has traded for since Friedman has left. In fact I can't think of any trades that TB has made recently that have been much of a benefit to the club.

 

Edit: Looking at recent trades, I don't see anything that says they've been getting any quality players back. Wow did they get the short end of the three-team deal that included Trea Turner and Will Myers.

 

I still don't get that trade from their end.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I doubt it, but I also doubt he left the intellect behind when he went to LA. Just because a guy is good at his job doesn't mean his pupils are guaranteed to be any good.

 

I'm probably forgetting someone but I can't recall any good pitching prospects that TB has traded for since Friedman has left. In fact I can't think of any trades that TB has made recently that have been much of a benefit to the club.

 

Edit: Looking at recent trades, I don't see anything that says they've been getting any quality players back. Wow did they get the short end of the three-team deal that included Trea Turner and Will Myers.

They absolutely biffed the Wil Myers trade, true.  The Nationals really made out like bandits in that deal.

 

But since then, the Rays have made some nice deals  Moving Jepsen for Hu was solid.  Erasmo Ramirez has been useful. Getting Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar for Nate Karns is looking pretty good.  Still plenty of time to win the Smyly and Forsythe trades.

 

And they still haven't moved any of their "big guns" -- I suspect they could do quite well if they finally decide to move Archer or Odorizzi or Colome.  Those guys are closer to the assets that Friedman was moving in his big deals.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I already stated the reason he wasn't a lock to make it in the Dodger's rotation, and it wasn't because he wasn't legit. The Dodgers pitching depth is just really impressive right now. The Dodger were simply trading from their surplus. As far as legit goes, we will see what kind of pitcher he will turn out since no one really knows if he's legit. 

Trading from their surplus, yes, but given that Stewart, Alvarez, and Buehler were all off the table, what does that tell you about their opinions of JDL?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

did no one left behind learn anything? Were they just left barren of intellect when he left?

 

It tells me to be wary of who Mr. Friedman is willing to offer up. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Again, then why not put him in the bullpen? That would make a ton of sense for JDL.

 

 

Because they needed a 2nd Baseman.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trading from their surplus, yes, but given that Stewart, Alvarez, and Buehler were all off the table, what does that tell you about their opinions of JDL?

Their surplus was mostly in MLB ready SP.  They quite likely figured their 2017-2018 teams could better withstand the loss of De Leon than their 2019 org health could withstand the loss of Alvarez or Buehler.  Some may disagree, but it's not illogical.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Trading from their surplus, yes, but given that Stewart, Alvarez, and Buehler were all off the table, what does that tell you about their opinions of JDL?

They felt Deleon was a good enough piece to not have to include other front line prospects.  Like it was stated earlier if a player who is less MLB ready or a slightly lower rated prospect headlines the deal than you have to trade more prospects away.  I think from most people prospective is that the Rays-Dodgers deal was win-win if Forsythe plays like he did the last two seasons.  Dodgers fans aren't happy to see JDL go not only because of his talent, but from all accounts he is a great, great person.

[Riverbrian]

I still can't help feeling that if DeLeon was near the top of the list. They could have stashed him in AAA and had that incredible important insurance policy that all teams need because a 5 man rotation almost never stays intact for an entire year. I get Kazmir and McCarthy and not wanting to eat the contracts but that arm waiting in AAA is a huge part of planning for the 162 game grind ahead. 

 

Unfortunately... The true way to know how the Dodgers ranked or felt about JDL is no longer possible.  

 

If JDL would have remained with the Dodgers... We could have simply waited to see who they called up first when the first opportunity arises. If they called up Stewart or anyone else first. We'd have our answer. 

 

Since that is no longer possible... I'm just going to continue to make stuff up out of my own head like I usually do. 

 

All was can do now... is watch what DeLeon does with the Rays when given the chance. 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I still don't get that trade from their end.....

 

Yeah, not sure why they involved the Nationals at all.

[Riverbrian]

It tells me to be wary of who Mr. Friedman is willing to offer up.

Last night... I was looking over Friedman deals over the years. You have to search for awhile to find a prospect traded that panned out or looks like they might pan out.

 

Friedman is good at this

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It tells me to be wary of who Mr. Friedman is willing to offer up. 

In Tampa, Friedman didn't really sell prospects -- he couldn't afford to.

 

Friedman's best deals were trading Garza and Shields/Davis, not over-valued prospects.

 

I know he got the best of the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, but Young wasn't quite a prospect anymore, and I'm not sure their other dealings fit that pattern.

 

Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce wasn't exactly highway robbery either.  (Again, Jackson wasn't a prospect anymore, and he did go on to have his best 4 MLB seasons immediately following this trade.)

 

Friedman traded Jesse Hahn and Alex Torres for a few useful players including Forsythe.  But Hahn wasn't even at the peak of his value, the Padres turned around and turned him into Derek Norris the next winter.

 

In 9 years as Rays GM, I don't really see a pattern of trades that warrant extra caution when evaluating a Dozier for De Leon proposal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Last night... I was looking over Friedman deals over the years. You have to search for awhile to find a prospect traded that panned out or looks like they might pan out.

Friedman is good at this

If you can remember what you looked at, please share.  I just perused Tampa's transactions from 2006-2014 at B-Ref and I didn't see any notable prospects dealt, period:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/2006-transactions.shtml

 

I feel like Twins fans are extra sensitive here because of the Delmon Young deal, but that is not a recurring theme in Tampa's transactions.  Credit to Tampa for making it happen, but I think the blame for that mostly lies on the Twins.  If anything, Friedman probably got lucky after he waited that long to move Young (his flaws were on full display for a full MLB season in 2007 before the deal).

[DaveW]

In re: to Tampa, who did we give up for Jensen again?

[Vanimal46]

 

In re: to Tampa, who did we give up for Jensen again?

What does an owl say? 

[gunnarthor]

In re: to Tampa, who did we give up for Jensen again?

Either the next Liam Hendriks or the next Roger Clemens. Depends on who you ask.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

I feel like Twins fans are extra sensitive here because of the Delmon Young deal,

 

I think it was the Oswaldo Arcia deal. Still nothing!!!

[DaveW]

Either the next Laim Hendriks or the next Roger Clemens. Depends on who you ask.

No but who did they trade for him?

[DaveW]

What does an owl say?

What?

[Vanimal46]

 

What?

You remember the name of the rock band Darius Rucker was in before he went country? Something and the Blowfish?