Baseball America Top 10 Twins Prospects

[HitInAPinch]

 

And I would say his "prove it season" was highly encouraging. I think we'd all like to see a little more velocity, and he's so young that I think he's still projectable. I don't know if he's an eventual #2 or #3, but I'm impressed and encouraged. I think he's going to be a fixture for some time.

I haven't seen Gonsalves pitch.  Actually, I've never seen any MiLB game, except for a couple on ESPN.  After reading scouting reports and asking on TD, Gonsalves isn't what I thought he was.

 

If he gets a little stronger and can command his pitches, well, Greg Maddux didn't need no dang 100mph fastball. 

[nicksaviking]

The list isn't very exciting but come June 11th it likely will be. We'll likely have a new #1 prospect and likely a second guy drafted make it into the top ten. Heck if the Twins get lucky with a comp pick they might get three new names.

 

Only a couple of the guys on the current list are close to debuting, which is OK as the team still hasn't come close to making final determinations on the last batch of prospects. If the team was going to have a lull in their top end prospect rankings, this is the time for it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Houston had 6 losing seasons in a row - including three historic ones - and, while many still refuse to accept it, the Cubs success had much more to do with their FA signings and trades than their farm system.  The Twins had 4 losing seasons, a winning one and a season from the depths of hell (which would only have been the Astros 4th worst losing season in their little run).  

 

What are you expecting next year? I'm expecting not to win near 81....

[gunnarthor]

 

What are you expecting next year? I'm expecting not to win near 81....

Let's see how the FO fixes the pitching staff before we worry about predictions.  But I do expect a number of the recently graduated prospects to be very good.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Houston had 6 losing seasons in a row - including three historic ones - and, while many still refuse to accept it, the Cubs success had much more to do with their FA signings and trades than their farm system.  The Twins had 4 losing seasons, a winning one and a season from the depths of hell (which would only have been the Astros 4th worst losing season in their little run).  

The Cubs free agent signings helped a little (Lester, Lackey, Zobrist, Hayward) but the Cubs farm system had a lot to do with the team's success whether directly or indirectly.  The 2016 team featured draft picks/IFA: Baez, Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras, Soler, Szczur, Zastransky, Almora.  As for the trades, Rizzo comes in for Cubs 2008 1st rounder Andrew Cashner, Addison Russell comes in for Cubs 2006 5th rounder Jeff Samardzija.  Even the Matt Garza trade (Cubs got Edwards Jr, Grimm for Garza) had round about implications of the Cubs farm system as the Cubs gave up prospects (Indians) 2006 5th Rd Chris Archer, 2008 IFA Hak Ju Lee, 2007 5th rd Brandon Guyer, 2004 10th rd Sam Fuld, and 2000 IFA Robinson Chirinos.

 

This is what the Twins should be doing, namely bringing in the "cheap" starting pitching and dealing it while they're hot.  Ervin Santana should be shopped aggressively especially considering the state of FA starting pitching this offseason.  If he's not dealt by July the Twins missed a huge window.  Dozier as well.

[Tomj14]

 

What are you expecting next year? I'm expecting not to win near 81....

With a lineup of Dozier (2B), Polanco (SS), Mauer (1B), Sano (3B), Kepler (RF), Rosario(LF), Vargas/Plouffe/Park (DH), Buxon © and any Catcher this team should win 80 games with even a decent pitching staff. If not the young guys will have failed to show improvement and we are looking at another rebuild of hitters which would suck worse than the last few years. IMO

[gunnarthor]

 

 

This is what the Twins should be doing, namely bringing in the "cheap" starting pitching and dealing it while they're hot.  Ervin Santana should be shopped aggressively especially considering the state of FA starting pitching this offseason.  If he's not dealt by July the Twins missed a huge window.  Dozier as well.

I don't disagree that the Twins should be doing things like that but every team tries to do that.  It wasn't remotely unique to the Cubs. Cleveland is probably the better model.  They got very little from FA signings but a ton from farm development and trades.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I don't disagree that the Twins should be doing things like that but every team tries to do that.  It wasn't remotely unique to the Cubs. Cleveland is probably the better model.  They got very little from FA signings but a ton from farm development and trades.

Not every team tries this but every team not playing for a Division Title (or a Wildcard for that matter) going into the season should.

 

In 2013, the Cubs signed Scott Feldman off the scrap heap to a one year deal to help his status for FA 2014. At best he was a "serviceable starter arm" and he had a plus first half of 2013 before dealing him at the deadline to Baltimore for two pitchers who were sputtering in the O's system in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.

 

In 2014, the Cubs signed Jason Hammel off the scrap heap to a one year deal to help his status for for FA 2015.  Like Feldman, a serviceable arm, nothing spectacular, nothing horrible, but he had a plus first half of 2014 before the Cubs bundled him with Samardzija to Oakland for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily.

 

Yes I know that it doesn't always work out, Feldman or Hammel could have laid a goose egg and the Cubs could have been stuck with them.  Still the worst thing they ate innings on a horrible club and kept a spot warm for someone else and would have been cut bait with the next season.

 

Unfortunately, this does not look like the best year to pull off the one year signing and trade midseason as even the average guys will garner plenty of attention.  The likes of a Andrew Cashner or Ivan Nova would fit the bill but will likely get multiple years, still a project like Derek Holland, Brian Anderson, Charlie Morton, Edison Volquez or CJ Wilson could work but far riskier.

[diehardtwinsfan]

They did miss on a few. They signed Scott Baker during that timeframe as well. That's one thing I never really understood why Ryan didn't pursue those types of moves. You could have argued that this is what they did with Pelfrey, but beyond that, it was Kevin Coreia type signings that were just maddening.

[jimmer]

 

What are you expecting next year? I'm expecting not to win near 81....

As the club stands right now, I'd say between 65-70.

[terencemann]

 

And yet they are still terrible. So, while the lists are fun, something isn't working in MN, to have 10 top 100 players, and still be terrible. As the owner said, there is some kind of total system failure.

The top prospect lists just reinforce my thinking that the new front office has a steep uphill climb. Sure, there are a lot of young players on the MLB roster but, other than Buxton and Sano, none of them have really established the potential to be first division starters that carry a team through the playoffs. The cupboard is getting a little bare and I don't know if the Twins have the players at the MLB level to win the division and they haven't drafted well enough to bring on the next star player or even give them the ammo to trade for what they need in the near future.

 

Just a lot of anxiety on my part about the players at the MLB level and the newest reports on the Twins farm system don't help.

[bird]

 

I don't agree with every (or many) decision that the Twins have made but the Twins had a rather mediocre farm system (especially at the upper levels) when the MLB team fell apart. Pointing out two teams that rebuilt in different ways is meaningless. And yes I am frustrated by this but it isn't that unexpected that prospects take longer than a year or two to become good/great.

Well said.

[bird]

 

Tell that to Chicago and Houston....

 

 

I would say that this has very little relevance as an explanation or a desription. 

 

In realistically and fairly describing the nuanced progression of the talent pipeline, one has to start with an acknowledgement about what has to happen for a draft pipeline to produce a winning team. That starts with the fact that teams need opportunities to draft the occasional generational talent. Obviously, some of these guys are players that all teams missed on and that some team was fortunate enough, with a modicum of scouting acumen sprinkled in, to nab in a later round. Even Kirby Puckett fits into this category.

 

The Twins have two players who have been accorded the status of possibly being generational talents, Sano and Buxton. The jury hasn't reached a verdict on them.

 

Again, the Twin's problem has not been about the acquisition of prospective talent nearly as much as it has been about failing to manage and trade player assets as well as, say, the Chicago Cubs.

 

So, if Sano and Buxton pan out as generational talents and a couple of others also emerge, AND if the new regime moves players like Dozier (a great example of superb drafting) along adroitly, the pipeline we're seeing today is actually quite promising, all things considered.

[DaveW]

Ouch, it's a little embarrassing that a team that has been this terrible for this long has a top ten list this mediocre.

It's not like we just had a half a dozen studs graduate either. Sano, Kepler, Buxton and Berrios are the only ones it looks like are worth writing home about over the past few seasons. Maybe Polanco as well, but he seems more of a role player. Sano and Buxton both have the star upside though.

[Mike Sixel]

And Sano, Polanco and Kepler aren't draft picks.....

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think that when you have a top 10 prospect list and a guy who struck out 3.9/9 in AA is on the list at number 8, well, that looks discouraging. I know he's younger than the 'average' player in AA, but 3.9/9?

 

And they rank Palka lower than that. What do they know that we don't?

 

Just ahead, at number 7, is a player who was taken as the #4 overall pick in 2013. (he of the 4.6 SO/9)

 

This does not look good.

[jimmer]

 

I think that when you have a top 10 prospect list and a guy who struck out 3.9/9 in AA is on the list at number 8, well, that looks discouraging. I know he's younger than the 'average' player in AA, but 3.9/9?

 

And they rank Palka lower than that. What do they know that we don't?

 

Just ahead, at number 7, is a player who was taken as the #4 overall pick in 2013. (he of the 4.6 SO/9)

 

This does not look good.

I think having Palka ranked 9th has less to do with Jorge performance being that good and more to do with Palka striking out almost 40% of the time and getting on base less than 30% of the time. Big warning signs when that close to the majors (or really anytime, I guess).

 

I don't have Palka in my top 10. Nor do I think we have a top 10 farm system (I was leery of it when we were being ranked higher and even more so now).  I don't envision Palka having any kind of real MLB career.

 

[ashbury]

Maybe Polanco as well, but he seems more of a role player.

Plonk's gonna be a ten-year starter in the majors, for some other team if not us. I have him about on a par with Kepler as a prospect. Well, neither qualifies as a prospect anymore. What's the word for after that? Player, then.

[Seth Stohs]

John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Michael Lanana joined to discuss their Top 10 (and many more) Twins Prospects in their podcast.

 

Gotta say, it's not exactly positive, but it's still worth the listen. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-twins-top-10-prospects-podcast/#c08U9qS29ZV34xiE.97

 

[Secondary User]

 

Ouch, it's a little embarrassing that a team that has been this terrible for this long has a top ten list this mediocre.

It's not like we just had a half a dozen studs graduate either. Sano, Kepler, Buxton and Berrios are the only ones it looks like are worth writing home about over the past few seasons. Maybe Polanco as well, but he seems more of a role player. Sano and Buxton both have the star upside though.

 

 

Yeah, only graduated 2 top 10s, a top 50, a top 100 in the last year plus.  That's about it though....

 

#sarcasm

[drjim]

John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Michael Lanana joined to discuss their Top 10 (and many more) Twins Prospects in their podcast.

 

Gotta say, it's not exactly positive, but it's still worth the listen.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-twins-top-10-prospects-podcast/#c08U9qS29ZV34xiE.97

Good podcast. I think this is the year we really finally see the fruits of the passive job Ryan did on talent acquisition.

 

The drafts weren't steller, more missed opportunities than train wrecks, but the lack of good trades and not being aggressive in international markets is what has really caught up to the Twins. Going to take some time to rebuild it.

[BK432]

Thanks for sharing, I would have missed this somehow. Honest and brutal assessment. For those that don't have 45 minutes, they took a lot of shots at the system and labeled the Twins a bottom 10 system.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, only graduated 2 top 10s, a top 50, a top 100 in the last year plus.  That's about it though....

 

#sarcasm

 

And three of those were acquired BEFORE the team was bad....so, so far, being bad hasn't helped. And, based on the podcast, it doesn't sound like the drafts when the teams were terrible have been all that good......

 

That was the point of the post you reacted to, they've been terrible, but have little to show for that...

[Bob Sacamento]

 

John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Michael Lanana joined to discuss their Top 10 (and many more) Twins Prospects in their podcast.

 

Gotta say, it's not exactly positive, but it's still worth the listen. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-twins-top-10-prospects-podcast/#c08U9qS29ZV34xiE.97

The most poignant parts were about Kohl Stewart:

 

Vanilla as Vanilla

Twins still believe in his stuff

not a top 100 since being drafted and was #52.

Comped to Taylor Guerria, sinker/slider/grounder

can touch 95-96 usually 91-92 can't locate when faster.

 

out of HS:

better stuff than Taillon,

91-96mph,

life on heater,

power slider with tilt,

clean delivery.  

 

For all of talk of how can get better, u gotta throw ever 5th day, instead of every 7 days.

Diabetic Type 1 not excuse.  

Learning how to pitch, very raw.  

 

A pitcher can learn to learn alot of things, they can develop another pitch, but guys who don't miss bats now don't miss bats in the future.

[gunnarthor]

 

And three of those were acquired BEFORE the team was bad....so, so far, being bad hasn't helped. And, based on the podcast, it doesn't sound like the drafts when the teams were terrible have been all that good......

 

That was the point of the post you reacted to, they've been terrible, but have little to show for that...

So, essentially, you're just looking at the 2012-2016 drafts which have seen the best prospect in baseball graduate, a top 30 pitching prospect graduate, 3 others from the 2012 draft graduate.  And then 4 more top 100 prospects (plus a couple more players that have been on top 100 lists).  That seems pretty good, actually.

[Tom Froemming]

 

The facts that a guy who was traded for Nunez is the 6th best prospect and a late recent first round pick their number 3 prospect does not say much for the system.

 

Unless of course the author of the ranking has a bias against IFAs who have not yet played on A+ or higher.

 

That's the problem here.  Any Twins top-10 list that does not include (at least) Diaz and Javier should be suspect...

This is a great point. I think the Twins have a lot of prospects that could really shoot up these rankings with some more exposure.

 

That's especially true for guys like Javier and Diaz, but I could also see the trio of Kirilloff, Romero and Jay rise. I think these three are being ranked fairly modestly because their track records are relatively short in comparison to a lot of other top prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So, essentially, you're just looking at the 2012-2016 drafts which have seen the best prospect in baseball graduate, a top 30 pitching prospect graduate, 3 others from the 2012 draft graduate.  And then 4 more top 100 prospects (plus a couple more players that have been on top 100 lists).  That seems pretty good, actually.

 

but, that's not what he said in the reply, was it.......the context of the discussion was that for a team that has been this bad, and that traded two starting CFers, they should be in the top 10, not bottom 10, in farm system rankings. Four top 100 prospects....30 teams....so an average team should have three plus, and a team that has lost 90+ games 4 of the last 5 years should have how many if they are just average at drafting?

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Michael Lanana joined to discuss their Top 10 (and many more) Twins Prospects in their podcast.

 

Gotta say, it's not exactly positive, but it's still worth the listen. 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-twins-top-10-prospects-podcast/#c08U9qS29ZV34xiE.97

 

Nice shout out to TD without mentioning TD. 

 

Big thing is the lack of sure things, but that doesn't really say anything we didn't already know. Lots of guys that could amount to something, but it's lacking sure things.

 

They are also pretty clear that they don't think there's enough starting pitching in the high minors to complement the core in the majors.

 

Definitely listen knowing it won't be rosy. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

but, that's not what he said in the reply, was it.......the context of the discussion was that for a team that has been this bad, and that traded two starting CFers, they should be in the top 10, not bottom 10, in farm system rankings. Four top 100 prospects....30 teams....so an average team should have three plus, and a team that has lost 90+ games 4 of the last 5 years should have how many if they are just average at drafting?

 

They were basically unimpressed with the group following.  Lots of 'personal cheeseballs' so to speak, but a lack of sure fire good talent. That was the context behind guys like Jay, Stewart, etc...  They could step forward (Jay in particular) but the odds are against guys like Stewart doing it at this point. They weren't terribly high on Gonsalves either for the record.  I'm fine with that... I hope he listens to it.  That kid always seems to pitch well with a chip on his shoulder.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

but, that's not what he said in the reply, was it.......the context of the discussion was that for a team that has been this bad, and that traded two starting CFers, they should be in the top 10, not bottom 10, in farm system rankings. Four top 100 prospects....30 teams....so an average team should have three plus, and a team that has lost 90+ games 4 of the last 5 years should have how many if they are just average at drafting?

More than they have, IMHO.