Vanimal's 2017 Plan

[Vanimal46]

Well, we're here. The off-season. 

First things first, adding people to the 40-man:

OF Zach Granite, C Mitch Garver, P Fernando Romero, P Felix Jorge, OF Daniel Palka

With 5 new people on the list, we'll need to DFA some people: 

super utility D. Santana, 1 of Buddy Boshers or Ryan O'Rourke, RP Yorman Landa, C Juan Centeno, OF Robbie Grossman, RP Michael Tonkin

Now, on to tendering for arbitration:

• Plouffe - $9 MM - not a chance
• Santiago - $8 MM - non-tender
• Kintzler - $2.5 MM - non-tender
• Escobar - $3.5 MM - yes
• Gibson - $2.5 MM - yes
• Pressly - $1.5 MM - yes

Free Agent Signings: 

• SP Brett Anderson - 1 year $5 million + performance incentives - Very much prepared for this to go the way of Rich Harden where he doesn't have a single inning pitched for this team. If he does pitch, and pitch well, flip him in July. 
• C Matt Wieters - 3 years $45 million - This team has a good 3 year window before Kepler, Buxton, Sano, and others become expensive. The Twins can afford a contract such as this. 
• RP Greg Holland - 1 year $6 million - Holland is handed the keys to the closer position as he tries to rebuild his value for next off-season. Another pitcher to potentially flip in July for better prospects.
• OF Carlos Gomez - 1 year $12 million - Rebounded some at the end of the year. Quality insurance in case of another implosion by one of the young OF.
• SP/RP hybrid Travis Wood - 1 year $8 million - Brett Anderson insurance, and he's shown he can handle being in the bullpen too.  

 

Trades: This is where I'm going to look silly. 

 

SP Ervin Santana traded to Texas Rangers for prospects LHSP Cole Ragans (18 yo) 3B/SS Josh Morgan (20 yo) and C David Garcia (16 yo) - They are ranked #5, #12, and #22 on this list. I'll be the first to admit I have no idea what Erv's trade value is. He was rumored to go to Texas or Toronto at the July deadline, and I can't imagine the interest isn't there anymore. 

 

2B Brian Dozier and SP Kohl Stewart traded to Pittsburgh Pirates for SP Jameson Taillon. Gives the Twins a front of the rotation kind of guy to build around. Others love Glasnow... I'm just not in the camp to dive right back in to freakishly tall pitchers. 

Opening Day Rotation:

• Jameson Taillon
• Kyle Gibson
• Trevor May
• Jose Berrios
• Brett Anderson

Depth: Phil Hughes, Travis Wood, Mejia, Gonsalves

 

Opening Day Bullpen:

• Greg Holland
• JT Chargois
• Travis Wood
• Taylor Rogers
• Tyler Duffey
• Ryan Pressly
• Trevor Hildenberger
• 1 more of the super awesome RP prospects

Depth: all of the super awesome RP prospects 

 

Hitters: 

 

C: Matt Wieters / JR Murphy - Garver for depth

1B: Joe Mauer 

2B: Jorge Polanco

SS: Eduardo Escobar

3B: Miguel Sano

OF: Eddie Rosario

OF: Byron Buxton

OF: Max Kepler

OF: Carlos Gomez

DH: Kennys Vargas 

IF Depth: I guess James Beresford? Still up in the air about that. 

 

 

How much does this cost? I don't know.... math. I'll figure it out later. 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I like the plan, I just have serious doubts about the pricetags you have quoted.  There are some of those I'd nearly double.  Or at least add about 40-50% on the deal.

[Vanimal46]

 

I like the plan, I just have serious doubts about the pricetags you have quoted.  There are some of those I'd nearly double.  Or at least add about 40-50% on the deal.

Yeah these numbers are subjective. I just went off of the projections available from the off-season handbook TBH. 

I just replied to you on a different thread, but I think Brett Anderson's initial salary is going to be low, but with his performance incentives it could jump right back up to $15-17 MM. 

The others are just a shot in the dark. Travis Wood made $6 MM last season. Figured I'd give him $8. Matt Wieters may be more expensive than that. I wouldn't mind paying a premium to keep it at 3 years so his deal expires right when Sano/Kepler/Buxton are due to become millionaires. 

[Craig Arko]

MLBTraderumors is saying Gomez is looking for multiple years, and they predict a 3-year deal.

 

Nope, nope, nope.

[Doomtints]

I like your plan.  The bullpen still does not look good enough (and heck those starters might not pan out either), but nevertheless this is one of the better plans I have seen and should result in a team that is not an embarrassment.  

 

Make it happen!

[Vanimal46]

MLBTraderumors is saying Gomez is looking for multiple years, and they predict a 3-year deal.

 

Nope, nope, nope.

Agreed. Not interested in multiple years of Gomez. If he does get multiple year offers then on to the next OF who's okay with a 1 year deal.

[beckmt]

Nice update, I also think some of your prices are low to very low.  Greg Holland might go for as much as 3/25. Would rather pay Kelly Jansen 5/$90 and build the staff from the back out.  Twins are unlikely to become too expensive in the next 5 years, so this should be doable.  I would then fill in most of the rest of the bullpen, with upper level and just up pitchers.

Would keep Santiago, but hope both Dozier and Santana are traded for a possible top of the rotation starter, but would prefer the Dodgers Urias rather than Tallion.

[operation mindcrime]

Nice update, I also think some of your prices are low to very low.  Greg Holland might go for as much as 3/25. Would rather pay Kelly Jansen 5/$90 and build the staff from the back out.  Twins are unlikely to become too expensive in the next 5 years, so this should be doable.  I would then fill in most of the rest of the bullpen, with upper level and just up pitchers.

Would keep Santiago, but hope both Dozier and Santana are traded for a possible top of the rotation starter, but would prefer the Dodgers Urias rather than Tallion.

I'd keep Santiago as well. \m/

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah these numbers are subjective. I just went off of the projections available from the off-season handbook TBH. 

I just replied to you on a different thread, but I think Brett Anderson's initial salary is going to be low, but with his performance incentives it could jump right back up to $15-17 MM. 

The others are just a shot in the dark. Travis Wood made $6 MM last season. Figured I'd give him $8. Matt Wieters may be more expensive than that. I wouldn't mind paying a premium to keep it at 3 years so his deal expires right when Sano/Kepler/Buxton are due to become millionaires. 

 

I don't think your projections are unreasonable, it's just my prediction that a lot of money being handed out this offseason is going to look silly compared to projections.

 

Time will tell.

[Mr. Brooks]

Nice update, I also think some of your prices are low to very low. Greg Holland might go for as much as 3/25. Would rather pay Kelly Jansen 5/$90 and build the staff from the back out. Twins are unlikely to become too expensive in the next 5 years, so this should be doable. I would then fill in most of the rest of the bullpen, with upper level and just up pitchers.

Would keep Santiago, but hope both Dozier and Santana are traded for a possible top of the rotation starter, but would prefer the Dodgers Urias rather than Tallion.

I would never give a relief pitcher anything close to 5/90.

That much money would be better spent on everyday players, or at least starting pitching. And, aside from Mo Rivera, and a handful of others, elite relievers are likely to disappear at any moment.

[theBOMisthebomb]

No no to go Go.

[beckmt]

 

I would never give a relief pitcher anything close to 5/90.
That much money would be better spent on everyday players, or at least starting pitching. And, aside from Mo Rivera, and a handful of others, elite relievers are likely to disappear at any moment.

Relievers tend to be more durable.  Mlbtraderumors projected Jansen at 5/$85 and Chapman at 5/$90.

Next group of frontline starters are likely to go at 7-8/$200-240.  Twins will not pay in that league.  You probably have 50-55 games you win and 50-55 games you lose, the rest are in play.  Managers have not yet learned how to play in the 5-6 inning starter era with a shutdown bullpen at the backend.  

I ran this concept at 11 years ago in a stratomatic baseball league here in town, and with a good offense and very mediocre starting pitching made it to the finals.  I was unlucky not to win, but opposing manager got hot against my pen.   

Twins like the Royals have the finances for this type of concept, especially since rest of bullpen will be cheap over the next 5 years as will most of the starters.

It is a risk, but frontline starting pitching is worse as they are only 1 pitch from a 2 year stretch with TJ surgery.  

Twins have enough position player talent in the pipeline to have me believe the onfield team should be fine,  only the pitching needs major help.

[Vanimal46]

If Carlos Gomez does receive multi-year offers, then my backup plan would be 35 year old Angel Pagan on a 1 year deal. Switch hitter who can handle himself just fine against LHP (.717 OPS against LH vs. .766 against RH) Could play either corner in the OF. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I LOVE the Wieters idea, except I don't know how good he is at blocking pitches or pitch framing. Where can I find that data?

And Gomez, if he can be had for 1 year (or 1 year with a mutual option) I'd be for that too. If it is 3 years, I'd look elsewhere more than likely.

Taillon would be fun, wouldn't he?

Thanks for doing yours!

[Vanimal46]

 

I LOVE the Wieters idea, except I don't know how good he is at blocking pitches or pitch framing. Where can I find that data?

You're asking the wrong guy for that data... But I'm sure someone else who's more advanced metrics savvy could help us out. 

The big concern for Wieters last year was could he return to catching full-time? Especially when he underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2014.. This last season alleviated those concerns after starting 111 games behind the plate. 

[Mike Sixel]

FYI:

 

ConfusedConfucious: Thanks for chatting, Eric! Most overrated prospect, in your opinion? Also, does anyone call you E-Money?

1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: I won’t call him overrated because he is really talented, but I’ve always been lower on Glasnow than everyone else. I just worry he’s a reliever.

[mazeville]

I like the general thought here. Lots of bold moves. Love the Dozier trade idea, in particular. 

 

Don't know I sign Gomez but in theory if the Twins could afford to pay Wieters for three years then why not GoGo? 

 

And why not just keep Santiago rather than sign Brett Anderson? Don't quite get why Santiago is a non-tender candidate at this point. I think you tender him and hope he improves this year.