An Argument for the Twins to NOT do too much to fix their 2017 rotation

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

When has Gibson ever had a "stellar" season?

He's shown flashes of above averageness, but that's about it.

I didn't say he had a stellar season. He got off to bad starts in both 2014 and 2015 and then finished the season quite well, pitching well above average down the stretch.  The potential is there, and given the org weaknesses, not one to ignore...  Now if someone offers something nice for him, sure, but I don't see teams trading young cost-controlled ML ready pitching for Gibson.  Perhaps you can get that catcher if you're lucky, but I doubt that. I keep Gibson one more year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Being patient for what?

 

The cruise sets sail next April whether they attempt to patch the holes or not. IMO, doing nothing ensures they sink before they leave the harbor.

 

I'm not arguing to flush assets. I'm arguing this leaky tramp steamer isn't going to fix itself. We're hiring a repair crew. Find some parts and start the job.

im with you. Employ all the assets you have to improve the major league and minor league pitching staffs. The cupboard is bare. Time to restock and reload

[Mr. Brooks]

I didn't say he had a stellar season. He got off to bad starts in both 2014 and 2015 and then finished the season quite well, pitching well above average down the stretch. The potential is there, and given the org weaknesses, not one to ignore... Now if someone offers something nice for him, sure, but I don't see teams trading young cost-controlled ML ready pitching for Gibson. Perhaps you can get that catcher if you're lucky, but I doubt that. I keep Gibson one more year.

How old does Gibson have to get before we stop talking about his potential?

I tend to think that by age 28 or 29, a player is what he is.

[Jham]

 

That's not the either/or.  Like with most young players, we simply don't know what we have yet.  2017 should be about seeing what we have.  

 

In your analogy, I'm the one that wants to see another card.  You're the one that wants to go all-in before the flop with 8/2.  I'm keeping my hand, nudging out a small bet, and riding the flop to see what I have.  Then I make a decision one way or the other. 

 

I'm not saying do nothing, but Chief and you and others have all this aggressive language about what should be done and then when pressed to explain that in light of basic common sense about probability, you back your language down considerably.  

 

I want them to take a 1 year flyer on a starter or two.  I want them to spend some money on a guy like Storen or Feliz.  But more than anything I want 2017 to be about figuring out what this young core is, not about picking up a few meaningless wins.

I mean, I think we basically agree.  It sounds like we're both looking at a wait and see type of year.  It's a matter of whether we try to get creative to find capable arms and hope the kids are as good as projected, or do we wait to make those additions after they prove worthy of receiving conditions.  Your previous posts made it sound like you thought we should bank on this core being outstanding three years from now, and that adding youth should trump adding talent.  I don't mind your conservative approach to adding talent.  But sometimes I think you're too liberal with your projections for prospect development.  I take a measured approach to prospect development, and liberal approach to adding talent.  I think consistently looking for upgrades is a better way to achieve steady success than trying to peak, make a push, then rebuild.  Both routes have had success.  Both have failed.  Personal preference.  So from that regard, I can't say you're wrong "per se" so I'll take back the insanity comment, but nor do I think that I've in anyway softened my stance.  

[jimmer]

So, we are on yet another year of saying, 'Let's wait and see what we got'.  At what point do we stop saying that cause it's two years in a row that has been said.  We have the worst record this decade and we just had the worst record in baseball by like 10 games (or whatever it was).

 

At this point, we cant see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's going to be a LONG time before we are true contenders, especially with the seemingly acceptable approach of wait and see. If wait and see is what we want to do, we might as well have kept Ryan.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, we are on yet another year of saying, 'Let's wait and see what we got'.  At what point do we stop saying that cause it's two years in a row that has been said.  We have the worst record this decade and we just had the worst record in baseball by like 10 games (or whatever it was).

 

At this point, we cant see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's going to be a LONG time before we are true contenders, especially with the seemingly acceptable approach of wait and see. If wait and see is what we want to do, we might as well have kept Ryan.

 

If "do anything for the sake of saying we did something" is your approach, I consider that far more probable to fail in miserable fashion.  At some point, being realistic about your situation and the available options to fix it is important.  Otherwise you're just a dog chasing cars.

 

So, how about we stop waiting to see what we have when we know what we have is good?  It's not like the last few years have been spent on that and that's part of the problem.  We largely have been trying to tread water while we were a foot below the surface.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I mean, I think we basically agree.  It sounds like we're both looking at a wait and see type of year.  It's a matter of whether we try to get creative to find capable arms and hope the kids are as good as projected, or do we wait to make those additions after they prove worthy of receiving conditions.  Your previous posts made it sound like you thought we should bank on this core being outstanding three years from now, and that adding youth should trump adding talent.  I don't mind your conservative approach to adding talent.  But sometimes I think you're too liberal with your projections for prospect development.  I take a measured approach to prospect development, and liberal approach to adding talent.  I think consistently looking for upgrades is a better way to achieve steady success than trying to peak, make a push, then rebuild.  Both routes have had success.  Both have failed.  Personal preference.  So from that regard, I can't say you're wrong "per se" so I'll take back the insanity comment, but nor do I think that I've in anyway softened my stance.  

 

I don't mind getting creative in finding a capable arm, I'm just being realistic about how that turns out.  If Brett Anderson is your definition of "creative" you should probably back down your language about being "liberal" quite a bit.  You're spitting in the wind, not being liberal.   I'm for some good ol' fashioned wind spitting, I'm just accepting of what it is.

 

The problem, as I see it, is you seem to be totally and utterly ignoring what this offseason looks to be both in terms of what is available and in terms of what we have to acquire anything.  Pitching is always at a premium, this offseason it is a barren wasteland that is going to make "premium" look like a bargain.  Meaning, if you think you're going to be able to be "creative" getting established talent you are going to pay through the freaking nose to get it.  And we don't even have that many assets to do such a plan even if it were available.  

 

You seem to be mistaken that I am following some over-arching philosophy here when what I am actually doing is reading the situation for what it is and responding in the way that makes the most sense from a long term probability standpoint.  I'm not going to give Brett Anderson three years and 30M this offseason when he'd be lucky to get 1 year for 6M most of the time.  I'm not going to trade Dozier for some number 3 starter.  Because I see no way (and we can check on this in a few months) that we aren't going to be down right bowled over by what it's going to take to add established pitching talent this offseason.    We don't have that kind of value to trade and we aren't in a position to risk what we do have.

 

It's not that I plan on our prospects being great, I'm vocally adamant about patience with prospects.  So your characterization of me as liberal on that is just not even remotely true.  In fact, that patience is why I take the long term view.  We don't know what we have, so why unload a bunch of assets (be a buyer) in a lopsidedly seller's market?  That's just a horrible idea for a 100+ loss team.  

 

I'd suggest the real problem some of you have is that you have a philosophy about team building that acts more like a club than a scalpel.  Must...add...talent.....will work sometimes Frankenstein, but it'll also get you in plenty of trouble.  Just like Ryan's strategy of hording his precious prospects like Gollum was an equally poor strategy. 

 

My belief is that smart organizations recognize what they are, what they have, what the market is giving them, and work towards the highest probabilities of success.  What you're attempting to do - Hulk Smash Talent into Team - is not something I'll ever get on board with.  It's not nuanced and well-thought out enough for my liking.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

So, we are on yet another year of saying, 'Let's wait and see what we got'.  At what point do we stop saying that cause it's two years in a row that has been said.  We have the worst record this decade and we just had the worst record in baseball by like 10 games (or whatever it was).

 

At this point, we cant see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's going to be a LONG time before we are true contenders, especially with the seemingly acceptable approach of wait and see. If wait and see is what we want to do, we might as well have kept Ryan.

We need at least 2 well above average SPs to make any real difference.  What would you suggest be done to get this done in 2017?  I am as tired of sucking as anyone else but how do you fix it immediately without trading away the young players who should be our future?  Top tier SPs always bring a big return and I would think they would bring a huge return this year. 

 

There are no front of the rotation FA SPs this year and I don't see Dozier bringing back an established front of the rotation guy. Any team that would want to trade for him would be in a win now mode.  That's not a team that is going to trade away a proven front of the rotation SP.  So, I would love to hear some specifics of a plan to get this done immediately.

[Jham]

 

I don't mind getting creative in finding a capable arm, I'm just being realistic about how that turns out.  If Brett Anderson is your definition of "creative" you should probably back down your language about being "liberal" quite a bit.  You're spitting in the wind, not being liberal.   I'm for some good ol' fashioned wind spitting, I'm just accepting of what it is.

 

The problem, as I see it, is you seem to be totally and utterly ignoring what this offseason looks to be both in terms of what is available and in terms of what we have to acquire anything.  Pitching is always at a premium, this offseason it is a barren wasteland that is going to make "premium" look like a bargain.  Meaning, if you think you're going to be able to be "creative" getting established talent you are going to pay through the freaking nose to get it.  And we don't even have that many assets to do such a plan even if it were available.  

 

You seem to be mistaken that I am following some over-arching philosophy here when what I am actually doing is reading the situation for what it is and responding in the way that makes the most sense from a long term probability standpoint.  I'm not going to give Brett Anderson three years and 30M this offseason when he'd be lucky to get 1 year for 6M most of the time.  I'm not going to trade Dozier for some number 3 starter.  Because I see no way (and we can check on this in a few months) that we aren't going to be down right bowled over by what it's going to take to add established pitching talent this offseason.    We don't have that kind of value to trade and we aren't in a position to risk what we do have.

 

It's not that I plan on our prospects being great, I'm vocally adamant about patience with prospects.  So your characterization of me as liberal on that is just not even remotely true.  In fact, that patience is why I take the long term view.  We don't know what we have, so why unload a bunch of assets (be a buyer) in a lopsidedly seller's market?  That's just a horrible idea for a 100+ loss team.  

 

I'd suggest the real problem some of you have is that you have a philosophy about team building that acts more like a club than a scalpel.  Must...add...talent.....will work sometimes Frankenstein, but it'll also get you in plenty of trouble.  Just like Ryan's strategy of hording his precious prospects like Gollum was an equally poor strategy. 

 

My belief is that smart organizations recognize what they are, what they have, what the market is giving them, and work towards the highest probabilities of success.  What you're attempting to do - Hulk Smash Talent into Team - is not something I'll ever get on board with.  It's not nuanced and well-thought out enough for my liking.

I think you may have blended my posts with others.  I've never suggested we sign a single free agent.  I've suggested we hold on to Ervin Santana rather than trade him for a lesser return.  I've suggested we low-ball Plouffe if it means we can put Sano in a better position (literally) to succeed.  I've suggested trading Dozier for a top young arm.  BUT I also suggested that we probably tried that at the deadline and didn't find interest.  I said the same thing you said.  Trades are about value, and if the rest of the league doesn't see Dozier as worthy of losing an ace or potential ace, we're getting great production at a great price.  We're not like the Yankees where we can just unload a couple expensive relievers and instantly rebuild the farm system.  We have to be creative.  If the pitching isn't available for Dozier, how else can we acquire it?  I don't see us signing a World Series caliber staff in the 2018 off season.  Even if we're building to 2019, we're probably going to have to start adding arms now.  As Chief has said, there's no guarantee the market is any good when we're buyers, and we might not have a chip like Sano or Buxton or Kepler or Dozier to deal at that point. 
 

You hit the nail on the head.  Our biggest philosophical difference is patience with prospects which for the record, is the opposite of a nuanced approach.  I'm all for being patient with prospects when warranted, but then you shouldn't be relying on them or building around them.  Work them in, surround them with talent so that the team's success and failure isn't hinged on them.  We were super patient with Alexi Casilla, Pedro Florimon, and Danny Santana.  A lot of good that did us.  You have to be patient with the right prospect.  How do you know if you're being patient with a late bloomer or wasting years chasing a 4-year-old prospect ranking?  Short answer, you don't.  So either acquire more talent and rely on those prospects less, or try to acquire truly elite prospects who require less patience. 

[USAFChief]

I am as tired of sucking as anyone else but how do you fix it immediately without trading away the young players who should be our future?

.

So wait until the future is the present, and then trade it?

 

You start to fix it by hiring the right guys, and letting them use all available avenues to find value where others don't see it. You figure out which FAs are, indeed, good players who's value is down. Which of your assets are overvalued and should be traded for undervalued ones. Where can a player be picked up from the international market. Where you simply accept sunk costs and move on, rather than investing good playing time after bad.

 

Maybe, for example, you sign a left fielder and trade Rosario, while you still can. Or Dozier, or Tyler Jay, or Gonsalves, or any of the hundred plus minor leaguers in your system, most of which will never see a day in the big leagues.

 

 

 

Again...if all Falvey does is hoard minor leaguers and wait for chance to deliver a WS, there was no need to fire Ryan.

 

I hope that's not the plan. Fortune favors the bold.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you may have blended my posts with others.  I've never suggested we sign a single free agent.  I've suggested we hold on to Ervin Santana rather than trade him for a lesser return.  

 

You hit the nail on the head.  Our biggest philosophical difference is patience with prospects which for the record, is the opposite of a nuanced approach.  I'm all for being patient with prospects when warranted, but then you shouldn't be relying on them or building around them.  Work them in, surround them with talent so that the team's success and failure isn't hinged on them.  We were super patient with Alexi Casilla, Pedro Florimon, and Danny Santana.  A lot of good that did us.  You have to be patient with the right prospect.  How do you know if you're being patient with a late bloomer or wasting years chasing a 4-year-old prospect ranking?  Short answer, you don't.  So either acquire more talent and rely on those prospects less, or try to acquire truly elite prospects who require less patience. 

 

In this market the return on Ervin Santana will never be higher.  Maybe you don't deal him, but you better try.

 

Eventually all teams go through a rebuild.  All of them.  Every.  Single.  One.  The team that headed to the World Series tonight followed exactly what I am advocating.  Exactly it.  They didn't sign Grienke or Sanchez or Hamilton or B.J. Upton.  They did this.  And turned one of those signings into Jake Arrieta.  And seriously, citing Casilla and Florimon and Santana is just such a bogus argument.  C'mon.

 

What's funny is...I'm not chasing anything.  I'm suggesting the exact opposite.  The market for what we need couldn't be less ideal.  Chasing need at the expense of value and good sense is a doomed strategy.  I'd argue your suggestion of tossing prospects at a ridiculous seller's market is the approach chasing something. 

 

I'm all for adding arms.  But I'm for adding arms that probably aren't ready to turn us into a contender in 2017.  (Largely because that goal is ridiculous)  I want upside and you won't get that thinking 2017 is anything other than a stepping stone.

 

[The Wise One]

 

1) I've already clarified that winning every season isn't realistic. I'm saying if you have a window and don't cash in a title then it wasn't a success. That could be 1 title in 5 years or whatever the window is.

2) They weren't let go because the window closed and it was time to start over. Schottenheimer was fired from San Diego after a 14-2 season.
And both the Caps and Ducks were/are still playoff contenders immediately after firing Boudreau.

3) Again, who is saying every year? That's not realistic. But don't call it a success when you don't.
The goal should be to win a title. I guess I don't understand how that is controversial.

Shottenheimer was fired because the GM couldn't stand him. Not winning nor losing entered into the equation.  As time goes by, people can make it out to whatever they want it to be on paper. Sort of like the fangraph scouts here

[The Wise One]

 

In this market the return on Ervin Santana will never be higher.  Maybe you don't deal him, but you better try.

 

Eventually all teams go through a rebuild.  All of them.  Every.  Single.  One.  The team that headed to the World Series tonight followed exactly what I am advocating.  Exactly it.  They didn't sign Grienke or Sanchez or Hamilton or B.J. Upton.  They did this.  And turned one of those signings into Jake Arrieta.  And seriously, citing Casilla and Florimon and Santana is just such a bogus argument.  C'mon.

 

What's funny is...I'm not chasing anything.  I'm suggesting the exact opposite.  The market for what we need couldn't be less ideal.  Chasing need at the expense of value and good sense is a doomed strategy.  I'd argue your suggestion of tossing prospects at a ridiculous seller's market is the approach chasing something. 

 

I'm all for adding arms.  But I'm for adding arms that probably aren't ready to turn us into a contender in 2017.  (Largely because that goal is ridiculous)  I want upside and you won't get that thinking 2017 is anything other than a stepping stone.

Spent 85 million and they have a half dozen warm bodies and Arrieta.  Not many teams can do that

[Major League Ready]

 

So wait until the future is the present, and then trade it?

You start to fix it by hiring the right guys, and letting them use all available avenues to find value where others don't see it. You figure out which FAs are, indeed, good players who's value is down. Which of your assets are overvalued and should be traded for undervalued ones. Where can a player be picked up from the international market. Where you simply accept sunk costs and move on, rather than investing good playing time after bad.

Maybe, for example, you sign a left fielder and trade Rosario, while you still can. Or Dozier, or Tyler Jay, or Gonsalves, or any of the hundred plus minor leaguers in your system, most of which will never see a day in the big leagues.



Again...if all Falvey does is hoard minor leaguers and wait for chance to deliver a WS, there was no need to fire Ryan.

I hope that's not the plan. Fortune favors the bold.

This is not what I meant by specifics but I can see where Once again, this

I seriously doubt those who advocate the need to fix this immediately would be satisfied with “figure out which FAs are, indeed, good players who's value is down.”  None of the FAs SPs available this year are expected to be front of the rotation starters and none of them would satisfy those who say fix it right now.  If this is not the case, give us specific examples who which players you believe would fix the problem.

 

Front of the rotation International FA starting pitcher – For starters, who is going to be available.  If one comes up there is going to be several teams with waaaay more money than the Twins going hard after them.  It’s a good idea but to suggest the Twins SHOULD win this type of bidding war against teams with much greater resources is naïve.

 

Go find a Jake Arrieta.  Wonderful!  Absolutely!!  How often does that happen?

Trade for a LF?  OK, how does that fix what is by far our greatest problem?  That being SP.

Trade prospects.  OK  Tell me specifically how you get that done.  What rebuilding teams have front of the rotation SPS because contenders are not trading them.  What are you giving up and let’s keep in mind that one SP, even a great one like Chris Sale does not make this team even close to being a contender.  You need two front of the rotation SPs.  And, if you are not going to contend, what is the point of not flushing out what you have this year and then going after a great free agent SP next year when there will be a much better FA class?

 

Hoarding minor league players was not the problem with this organization.  Most organizations do, even the ones with money.  How often has Cleveland traded away top prospects.  How did this strategy contribute to their current WS team.

 

Tomlin was a 19th round pick.  In other words, one of those guys you should trade as a prospect because they  probably wont make it.  Kluber was never considered a great prospect.  Even after he was established as a MLB player he resigned as a FA for 5 years 38.5M.  That hardly considered a front of the rotation guy.  They believed in these guys and stuck with them.   Bauer was a guy Arizona gave up on.  They were in a hurry.  How did that work out for them?

 

How did Cleveland acquire their top 4 position players? 
Lindor – 1st round pick
Kipnis – 2nd round pick
Ramirez – $50K International signing
Santana - Acquired when he was in High A.

 

Looks to me they were smart in drafting and trading for prospects.  Then, they did a good job of development and waiting out their prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

I will say, I'm going to need more from you "fortune favors the bold" people.  So far these are the ideas I've discerned that seem to qualify:

 

Trade Rosario for a pitcher 

Trade Dozier for....something (you would almost certainly not get an established or even ready young arm for him.  You're going to have to aim for near ready)

Sign Brett Anderson

 

If that's it, we have very different definitions of "bold", "liberal", "elite", or a variety of other words I've heard tossed around in here.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How old does Gibson have to get before we stop talking about his potential?
I tend to think that by age 28 or 29, a player is what he is.

 

I'm not saying Gibson isn't expendable.  I am saying that given the paucity of 2017 FA options available, the high cost acquiring premium SP talent (of which we both agree that Gibson is not one of those), and the lack of internal options, you give him another chance. Every player is different. Gibson has had a grand total of a little over 2 years worth of starts in the majors.  You are hardly in "he is what he is" territory. That's it. Cutting/trading him here with no real replacement shows not only a lack of patience, but it also ignores the potential that he has shown at the ML level.

 

If someone came along and offered to take on the risk of developing him for the potential reward and in the process exchanged a much needed piece for our current Twins, then yes, I do it and do it in a heart beat. I'm not going to cut him to replace him with a Jason Wheeler type or rush a Stephen Gonsalves to the majors before he's ready. 2018 is going to be a much better FA class, and if Gibson lays another egg in 2017, that makes the decision very easy. If he pitches well, then the question of what to do with him suddenly has more options.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Must...add...talent.....will work sometimes Frankenstein, but it'll also get you in plenty of trouble.  Just like Ryan's strategy of hording his precious prospects like Gollum was an equally poor strategy. 

 

 

 

I love this analogy 

 

Smeeeeeeeeeeeeegal....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We need at least 2 well above average SPs to make any real difference.  What would you suggest be done to get this done in 2017?  I am as tired of sucking as anyone else but how do you fix it immediately without trading away the young players who should be our future?  Top tier SPs always bring a big return and I would think they would bring a huge return this year. 

 

There are no front of the rotation FA SPs this year and I don't see Dozier bringing back an established front of the rotation guy. Any team that would want to trade for him would be in a win now mode.  That's not a team that is going to trade away a proven front of the rotation SP.  So, I would love to hear some specifics of a plan to get this done immediately.

 

Well said... I'm assuming that's 2 on top of Santana doing what he did in 2016 for us.  That's the problem.  No one will do that in the current FA market, and to hope Santana can do that for 2 more years is also a bit of a gamble.

 

Can May get there in 2017?  I'd say better than average.

Gibson?  Push

Mejia - probably not in 2017.

Berrios - probably not (though I think his long term potential is there)

Hughes - I have a better chance at the powerball.

Gonsalves - not likely in 2017.

 

Long term is the right answer here. We need arms for 2018, not more contracts in 2017.  Like it or not, with 100+ losses, we need to figure out which of these arms will stick.  I'm not saying that we shouldn't be creative to get some higher ceiling arms, but trading the farm for a year of a guy like Sale is the worst possible way to do this and likely guarantees us far more 100 loss seasons down the road. 

[USAFChief]

This is not what I meant by specifics but I can see where Once again, this

I seriously doubt those who advocate the need to fix this immediately would be satisfied with “figure out which FAs are, indeed, good players who's value is down.”  None of the FAs SPs available this year are expected to be front of the rotation starters and none of them would satisfy those who say fix it right now.  If this is not the case, give us specific examples who which players you believe would fix the problem.

 

Front of the rotation International FA starting pitcher – For starters, who is going to be available.  If one comes up there is going to be several teams with waaaay more money than the Twins going hard after them.  It’s a good idea but to suggest the Twins SHOULD win this type of bidding war against teams with much greater resources is naïve.

 

Go find a Jake Arrieta.  Wonderful!  Absolutely!!  How often does that happen?

Trade for a LF?  OK, how does that fix what is by far our greatest problem?  That being SP.

Trade prospects.  OK  Tell me specifically how you get that done.  What rebuilding teams have front of the rotation SPS because contenders are not trading them.  What are you giving up and let’s keep in mind that one SP, even a great one like Chris Sale does not make this team even close to being a contender.  You need two front of the rotation SPs.  And, if you are not going to contend, what is the point of not flushing out what you have this year and then going after a great free agent SP next year when there will be a much better FA class?

 

Hoarding minor league players was not the problem with this organization.  Most organizations do, even the ones with money.  How often has Cleveland traded away top prospects.  How did this strategy contribute to their current WS team.

 

Tomlin was a 19th round pick.  In other words, one of those guys you should trade as a prospect because they  probably wont make it.  Kluber was never considered a great prospect.  Even after he was established as a MLB player he resigned as a FA for 5 years 38.5M.  That hardly considered a front of the rotation guy.  They believed in these guys and stuck with them.   Bauer was a guy Arizona gave up on.  They were in a hurry.  How did that work out for them?

 

How did Cleveland acquire their top 4 position players? 

Lindor – 1st round pick

Kipnis – 2nd round pick

Ramirez – $50K International signing

Santana - Acquired when he was in High A.

 

Looks to me they were smart in drafting and trading for prospects.  Then, they did a good job of development and waiting out their prospects.

Where to start?

 

1. "We can't trade now, who would we trade? To who? For what?"

 

But these same issues will disappear at some point in the future.

 

2. "We can't sign international talent! For one thing, who? And RESOURCES! Anybody good we can't afford!"

 

But these same issues will disappear at some point in the future.

 

3. "Look at Chicago! Look at Cleveland! They didn't get their front line pitching by identifying undervalued talent! Well, except for Arrietta. And Kluber. And Bauer. But those don't count! We can't expect the Twins to be able to do that!"

 

Actually, that's what I'm hoping the Twins will be able to do in the future. And the future starts now.

 

There is no point in waiting until some unspecified future date to get started on fixing what's wrong. None. Zilch. Zip. Nada.

 

All that does is guarantee sucking today, with absolutely zero reason to think it will be easier, more successful, or longer lasting success in the future. All the exact same barriers to success will exist then, with no guarantee you'll have more resources to invest. You might even have less.

 

Nobody is asking for a WS in 2017. But I absolutely want effort expended to try to turn this team into a post season contender coming out of ST next April.

[Major League Ready]

 

Where to start?

1. "We can't trade now, who would we trade? To who? For what?"

But these same issues will disappear at some point in the future.

2. "We can't sign international talent! For one thing, who? And RESOURCES! Anybody good we can't afford!"

But these same issues will disappear at some point in the future.

3. "Look at Chicago! Look at Cleveland! They didn't get their front line pitching by identifying undervalued talent! Well, except for Arrietta. And Kluber. And Bauer. But those don't count! We can't expect the Twins to be able to do that!"

Actually, that's what I'm hoping the Twins will be able to do in the future. And the future starts now.

There is no point in waiting until some unspecified future date to get started on fixing what's wrong. None. Zilch. Zip. Nada.

All that does is guarantee sucking today, with absolutely zero reason to think it will be easier, more successful, or longer lasting success in the future. All the exact same barriers to success will exist then, with no guarantee you'll have more resources to invest. You might even have less.

Nobody is asking for a WS in 2017. But I absolutely want effort expended to try to turn this team into a post season contender coming out of ST next April.

Kluber and Bauer were not immediate upgrades.  I am all for any Kluber/Bauer type deals and so is everyone else on this site but they are guys that took time to develop which appears to be exactly the opposite of you stated goal to get better immediately.  This is just more complaining with no constructive attempt at an actual solution.  So far, you have said the equivalent to buy high sell low.  Where are you getting this front line SP?  Be specific.  Contenders are not giving it up unless it made the Miller deal look conservative.  That leaves the rebuilding teams which is to say VERY few obtainable front of the rotation SPs and you need two in an extreme seller’s market.  So please, tell me how you get this done.  Who exactly do you trade for and what do you have to give up.  Anyone can say you just have to get it done.

 

The reality is that there are no FAs and Arietta deals are extremely rare.  Dozier is very unlikely to bring back a proven front of the rotation SP because Dozier would only be of interest to a contender. They are not giving up a front of the rotation guy.  It would take two trades in my estimation.  One would likely need to feature Sano and the other Buxton.  These deal are generally require 4 prospects per player so you are talking Sano and Buxton plus at least 2-3 from the group of Kepler, Berrios, Jay, Gordon, and Gonsalves and then 3-4 guys like Rosario, Mejia, Palka, Blakenhorn,Stewart types.   No Thanks!  I will wait until 2018.  Hopefully figure out some of the many question marks in 2017 and then sign some FAs in 2018. 

 

In the meanwhile, I trade Santana and Dozier if I can get a good return.

[TheLeviathan]

We absolutely should start fixing things. It will just do nothing for 2017. As long as you accept that, fine. But if you aim to fix 2017 you'll be flushing value all offseason.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

We absolutely should start fixing things. It will just do nothing for 2017. As long as you accept that, fine. But if you aim to fix 2017 you'll be flushing value all offseason.

I think your assumption is that "fixing" can only mean adding new players. That will certainly help when the time comes. 

 

It's also possible and probable that the guys we have can improve with a reboot. Maybe Gibson abandons the sinker and becomes a fastball-slider-change guy. Maybe Berrios stops tipping pitches or figures out something else. Things like that.

[TheLeviathan]

I think your assumption is that "fixing" can only mean adding new players. That will certainly help when the time comes. 

 

It's also possible and probable that the guys we have can improve with a reboot. Maybe Gibson abandons the sinker and becomes a fastball-slider-change guy. Maybe Berrios stops tipping pitches or figures out something else. Things like that.

Absolutely. Fielding a competent defense will help too. I just want the focus of 2017 to be a stepping stone/turning point season. Not an end on to itself we should be wrecklessly trying to fortify. That approach has a minuscule chance of both short and long term success.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not saying Gibson isn't expendable. I am saying that given the paucity of 2017 FA options available, the high cost acquiring premium SP talent (of which we both agree that Gibson is not one of those), and the lack of internal options, you give him another chance. Every player is different. Gibson has had a grand total of a little over 2 years worth of starts in the majors. You are hardly in "he is what he is" territory. That's it. Cutting/trading him here with no real replacement shows not only a lack of patience, but it also ignores the potential that he has shown at the ML level.

 

If someone came along and offered to take on the risk of developing him for the potential reward and in the process exchanged a much needed piece for our current Twins, then yes, I do it and do it in a heart beat. I'm not going to cut him to replace him with a Jason Wheeler type or rush a Stephen Gonsalves to the majors before he's ready. 2018 is going to be a much better FA class, and if Gibson lays another egg in 2017, that makes the decision very easy. If he pitches well, then the question of what to do with him suddenly has more options.

Well I never advocated trading or cutting Gibson.

An aside, today is his 29th birthday.

I'm just saying he is what he is at this point.

He's had 98 career starts, that is not 2 seasons worth, unless this is 1908.

He's had only one meaningful stretch of good pitching.

He's a mid 4's ERA guy. A 5th starter type.

As long as he doesn't lose anything, he'll hang around the league for another 5 or 6 years. But, he's not going to magically become some good, or even above average pitcher.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

he's not going to magically become some good, or even above average pitcher.

Possibly true, but that's just an opinion. 

 

And to get technical, he has already pitched above average in one of his three full seasons.  Maybe his next good season is well-timed with a post season run. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He's a mid 4's ERA guy. A 5th starter type.

As long as he doesn't lose anything, he'll hang around the league for another 5 or 6 years. But, he's not going to magically become some good, or even above average pitcher.

I mentioned that Gibson had an above-average season once, and you didn't respond. I honestly thought you would be popping the champagne over that

 

I don't know what the solution is. Heck, maybe he's our next closer and we don't even realize it yet.

[Mr. Brooks]

I mentioned that Gibson had an above-average season once, and you didn't respond. I honestly thought you would be popping the champagne over that

 

I don't know what the solution is. Heck, maybe he's our next closer and we don't even realize it yet.

Yes he had 1 barely above average season out of 4. I'm aware of that.

I'm guessing most number 5 type pitchers have a similar season every few years. Just like a .200 hitter will go 2 for 5 once in a while.

 

There is no solution to be had. You keep him around until he's no longer cheap, or until 5 clearly better options emerge. Or you trade him at the deadline to a desperate contender for a lottery ticket or two.

 

I don't think he's an offseason trade candidate though.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes he had 1 barely above average season out of 4. I'm aware of that.

I'm guessing most number 5 type pitchers have a similar season every few years. Just like a .200 hitter will go 2 for 5 once in a while.

There is no solution to be had. You keep him around until he's no longer cheap, or until 5 clearly better options emerge. Or you trade him at the deadline to a desperate contender for a lottery ticket or two.

I don't think he's an offseason trade candidate though.

But we did already talk about how failed starters often become top bullpen guys so maybe that's his future, maybe that's the solution. He can already ramp it up to 94 on his heater as a starter and maybe cutting down to two pitches instead of four would be the key.

 

There is some other compelling data about Gibson floating around. For example, he has one of the biggest ERA swings among all MLB starters in games he wins vs. games he loses.

[Mr. Brooks]

But we did already talk about how failed starters often become top bullpen guys so maybe that's his future, maybe that's the solution. He can already ramp it up to 94 on his heater as a starter and maybe cutting down to two pitches instead of four would be the key.

 

There is some other compelling data about Gibson floating around. For example, he has one of the biggest ERA swings among all MLB starters in games he wins vs. games he loses.

Yeah sure, I don't think you have anything to lose by trying him in the bullpen. Maybe he can succeed there, a la Perkins. I don't think Perkins had good K rates as a starter either, so it can be done.

 

I'm not sure what the w/l ERA thing is supposed to be suggestive of. Those games count too.

[DocBauer]

I'm not going to blow smoke regarding Gibson and say he's a great pitcher who is about to suddenly crank up his game. I will say, however, that I believe he's solid with the potential to still be better.

 

I tend to discount his "rookie" season as it was short and I think he ran out of gas a bit as well. Further, especially considering how shirt it was, it was of a get your feet wet opportunity. In 2014, his first full season, he missed rookie status by, I believe, only 1/3 of an IP. He was solid and showed flashes. He performed better in 2015 before the wheels sort of fell off this year. But there was an injury, the defense was poor, the bullpen often bad, and it was a bad season for the team as a whole. So I don't buy blanket statements that he's pitched 3 bad and 1 solid season.

 

Healthy, possibly with a different pitching coach that he works better with, I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more effective Gibson. Not saying a #2 or #3 SP, I'm saying a solid ML starter.