Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation

[beckmt]

I really disagree with these video game type trade ideas.  If we're going to deal either of these guys, chances are the deals will be as individuals.

 

None of us know what will be out there for Santana or for Dozier.  The only way the team will find out is to shop them.  And I think we all agree, regardless of who is dealt or to where, that we want the team to get a good return.  

 

The recommendation to shop (and hopefully find a deal) for Santana assumes this as well.  As you said, the odds of us turning in a contending rotation next season is highly improbable.  So let's aim for a more probable date of 2018 and acquire as many assets for that as humanly possible.

I feel Santana alone will not bring back the assets you need. More likely a high A player with decent upside from a club that wants to contend now. That to me is spinning wheels as you keep trading good assets for A ball prospects. The note about combining assets to a club that wants to contend now is still valid.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Video game trade ideas are trading everyone on the roster for exactly what you want. The board is upset that Suzuki, Plouffe, Kintzler and Brian $#%^^%#$^#$^ Duensing weren't traded at the deadline. It also seems like the Twins are going to be able to get exactly what they want for Santana and Dozier. I can almost guarantee that the only suitable trade package for one of them (if not both of them) won't include a MLB ready starter. This team needs to take talent first and worry about positions second.

 

The list of players you offered as evidence, I'd have taken a slightly used peanut for each of them.   Abad-like deals would have been more than welcome.

 

But I agree, we're going to have to be flexible about the return we get.  We need to think about value, not chase one position.  And we may not find a deal for either, but we damn sure better be trying.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I feel Santana alone will not bring back the assets you need. More likely a high A player with decent upside from a club that wants to contend now. That to me is spinning wheels as you keep trading good assets for A ball prospects. The note about combining assets to a club that wants to contend now is still valid.

 

How often do trades like that even happen?  Teams spread their assets out, not lump them into one deal.  I feel like you're suggesting something that doesn't happen and pretending it does.

 

I wouldn't deal Santana for a high A player unless that player was extremely well regarded and used in another deal for something closer to major league ready.

 

But if Santana is as good as some of you think, with the market as weak as it is, it's the ideal time to shop him.  He's affordable, a good pitcher, and has an ideal length of contract left.  This is the high point unless you think he can be a legit ace up to the trade deadline next year.  

[howieramone2]

 

Very hesitant about giving Santiago $10 million. With that kind of money, he'll be in the rotation all season long, no matter the results. 

Why? We can move him at the trade deadline. Who cares about the Pohlad's money.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't understand the concept of trading Santana. Why the F*** would you sign him to begin with? How do you improve a team with subtraction? If the Twins trade Santana for anything OTHER than proven starting player, I will refuse to attend a game. You have a losing season, you sign a guy to help your club, then you have another losing season, he does well, and you trade him? What kind of idiotic logic is that?

Well the logic is that Ryan probably thought, at the time he signed Santana, that we would be a playoff contender by now.

Instead we are the worst team in all of baseball. At his age, you have to weigh how likely it is that he can continue to pitch effectively by the time we are serious contenders.

You have to maximum your assets. If the new regime feels that it will be 2 to 3 years before we compete, as I do, then you might as well try to get something that CAN help your next contending team.

After all, we are going to lose 100+ games even with Santana's great season. So, I'd flip the logic on you. What is the point of keeping him? To try to win 73 games next year instead of 70? That does nothing for me.

[DJSim22]

 

I still hope Santana is dealt this offseason.  

 

I get selling high on Santana, but do we really want a staff with an ace of Gibson?

[DJSim22]

 

only if you assume they don't get better. I think this is a pretty weak argument.

I'd say it's pretty lucky Santiago and Berrios improve their numbers.  It would be hard not to.

 

 

[DJSim22]

 

Cubs have the best defense in baseball at 79 runs saved.  They have only given up 470 earned runs, best in baseball.  If they had just an average defense, 0 DRS, their ERA would jump from 3.10 to 3.60ish (if not higher).

 

We have -50 runs saved and have given up 764 ER.

 

I'd be amazed if a good defense COULDN'T cut a team ERA by AT LEAST 1/2 a run. Defense is still very under-rated even though it's a signficant portion of run prevention.

 

Good read:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/200908344/cubs-defense-fueling-historic-run-prevention/

 

I really miss the days of the Twins caring about defense.  They've become the White Sox team that those Twins teams used to own. 

 

[DJSim22]

 

That could be as early as April 2017 when that happens. Ervin's been prone to a couple of 5+ ERA pumpkin seasons. Then we're stuck with him. 

 

Which still could be better seasons than who we will be replacing him with.  I also suspect he;d be pitching more innings than his replacement.  There cannot be as many 2,3,4 inning starts as there have been this year. 

 

I get the notion of trading him due to fears about injury or performance drop off, but seriously the Twins need every pitcher they can. 

 

 

[Twodogs]

 

Unfortunately, that offense we are so proud of are the same guys playing the 2nd worst defense in the majors.

 

The interim GM said he wants May to compete for a spot in the rotation next year. Kind of like he supposedly did this spring training.

 

And Gibson....oh boy...

I have always been one that would like to see the Twins employ a speed and defense approach, but their current personnel doesn't really allow for that at any point in the near future.  But I would like to see how their defensive numbers looked for the first few months as opposed to the middle of the summer??  Recently, there have been so many different guys plugged in all over the place that I don't think the last few weeks should really be included.  But I would like to see what the numbers looked like when the Twins had the likes of Sano and Arcia running around out in the OF and Nunez as an everyday guy in the INF and compare that to June July and August's numbers defensively??  I would just like to see if there was any improvement with the younger guys running around out there??

[DJSim22]

 

I really disagree with these video game type trade ideas.  If we're going to deal either of these guys, chances are the deals will be as individuals.

 

None of us know what will be out there for Santana or for Dozier.  The only way the team will find out is to shop them.

 

And will any of us truly know if they do shop them?

[DJSim22]

 

This team needs to take talent first and worry about positions second.

 

I agree to a point.  We do not need to see any Sano in RF projects again. I'm actually concerned about Kepler in RF.  I'd like to see him at 1B in a couple years.

 

[Twodogs]

 

Cubs have the best defense in baseball at 79 runs saved.  They have only given up 470 earned runs, best in baseball.  If they had just an average defense, 0 DRS, their ERA would jump from 3.10 to 3.60ish (if not higher).

 

We have -50 runs saved and have given up 764 ER.

 

I'd be amazed if a good defense COULDN'T cut a team ERA by AT LEAST 1/2 a run. Defense is still very under-rated even though it's a signficant portion of run prevention.

 

Good read:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/200908344/cubs-defense-fueling-historic-run-prevention/

You need to be good at 2 of the 3 facets (pitching, hitting or defense) to have a decent season and a shot at winning something.  Right now the Twins have a shot at being good at one of them, hitting.  They will need to get lucky to be good at one of the other ones.  there isnt any quick fix to it, except to go out and get a really good pitcher or two.

[jimmer]

 

I have always been one that would like to see the Twins employ a speed and defense approach, but their current personnel doesn't really allow for that at any point in the near future.  But I would like to see how their defensive numbers looked for the first few months as opposed to the middle of the summer??  Recently, there have been so many different guys plugged in all over the place that I don't think the last few weeks should really be included.  But I would like to see what the numbers looked like when the Twins had the likes of Sano and Arcia running around out in the OF and Nunez as an everyday guy in the INF and compare that to June July and August's numbers defensively??  I would just like to see if there was any improvement with the younger guys running around out there??

I'd love to give you the info you asked for but unfortunately, right now, Fangraphs isn't showing season splits for defense.  Batting and pitching, yes, but not defense.  I do know the team DRS kept going higher in the negative, but I believe it slowed (while still being negative)

Edited September 26, 2016 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

And will any of us truly know if they do shop them?

 

Not until a trade happens.  If it doesn't, then no, we won't know.

[DJSim22]

 

Not until a trade happens.  If it doesn't, then no, we won't know.

 

They will always list to offers, I would have to think they would reach other to other teams as well, even if their intent is keep Santana and Dozier.  That's only doing due diligence.  I suspect we only hear about 1% of this. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

They will always list to offers, I would have to think they would reach other to other teams as well, even if their intent is keep Santana and Dozier.  That's only doing due diligence.  I suspect we only hear about 1% of this. 

 

I hope that's the case with the new GM.  I'm fairly sure the old GM was not the type to call others.

[howieramone2]

 

I hope that's the case with the new GM.  I'm fairly sure the old GM was not the type to call others.

I heard he spent all his time in the office playing cards and drinking beer.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I heard he spent all his time in the office playing cards and drinking beer.

 

Well, he sure wasn't planning that parade route of yours.  We can be sure of that.

[jimmer]

I heard he spent all his time in the office playing cards and drinking beer.

probably more of a Zima guy.

[dxpavelka]

 

Which, again, is not a valid argument.  By that logic we should never do anything because everything is doomed to failure.  It's the same bogus argument Nick was trotting out.

The argument is that is doesn't matter whether you make a move in the off-season or at the deadline.  What matters is that you make the best move you possibly can regardless of timing.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The argument is that is doesn't matter whether you make a move in the off-season or at the deadline.  What matters is that you make the best move you possibly can regardless of timing.

 

If you want to argue Santana may be more valuable to deal next July, there may be merit in that.  But it doesn't change my opinion - you should still be seeing what's out there for him right now.  If you need to wait because the value isn't there, so be it.

[Lefty]

Berrios should be here because he has nothing less to accomplish in AAA?  This is MLB folks, it's not about how good we are at the AAA level that should get us into MLB.  If we can't produce at the MLB level, there is somewhere else for us to be.  I think he'll be a good starter at some point, but he's proved a few times that it ain't here yet.  We are so entrenched into "Loserville USA" that we're totally willing to give up wins to give a kid experience at the big league level and it's been costing us BIG in the W/L column.  Whoever comes in to make personnel decisions has got their hands full because the cupboard is empty.  We can't settle for mediocrity.  Berrios is not mlb ready right now and shouldn't be considered.  We need to find good pitching elsewhere.  The sad part is that he is probably the 3rd or 4th best option at this point.  RESET.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios should be here because he has nothing less to accomplish in AAA?  This is MLB folks, it's not about how good we are at the AAA level that should get us into MLB.  If we can't produce at the MLB level, there is somewhere else for us to be.  I think he'll be a good starter at some point, but he's proved a few times that it ain't here yet.  We are so entrenched into "Loserville USA" that we're totally willing to give up wins to give a kid experience at the big league level and it's been costing us BIG in the W/L column.  Whoever comes in to make personnel decisions has got their hands full because the cupboard is empty.  We can't settle for mediocrity.  Berrios is not mlb ready right now and shouldn't be considered.  We need to find good pitching elsewhere.  The sad part is that he is probably the 3rd or 4th best option at this point.  RESET.

 

Frank Viola proved it year 1 also.....

[Twodogs]

Viola had a couple of poor years before he really got it going.

[dxpavelka]

 

If you want to argue Santana may be more valuable to deal next July, there may be merit in that.  But it doesn't change my opinion - you should still be seeing what's out there for him right now.  If you need to wait because the value isn't there, so be it.

I think that's what I just said.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think that's what I just said.

 

Then I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with.  You agree with me he should be shopped this offseason and evaluate from there what is available.

[dxpavelka]

 

Then I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with.  You agree with me he should be shopped this offseason and evaluate from there what is available.

IF the right value is offered in return.

[TheLeviathan]

 

IF the right value is offered in return.

 

It may save a lot of hassle around here if we all just assume that people want fair value unless indicated otherwise. 

[dxpavelka]

 

It may save a lot of hassle around here if we all just assume that people want fair value unless indicated otherwise. 

Doesn't mean it will be offered in return--regardless of whether it is off season or deadline.  Everyone will have a different definition of fair value.