Article: Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade

[DaveW]

Yes, I am drinking the "Sanchez is a better pitcher then Liriano because he has outperformed him in every meaningful statistical measure" kool-aid.

[gunnarthor]

Yes, I am drinking the "Sanchez is a better pitcher then Liriano because he has outperformed him in every meaningful statistical measure" kool-aid.

That's the strawberry flavored type. The Gardy/Andy rants are Blueberry.

[DaveW]

The Gardy/Andy rants are Blueberry.

Right color, wrong flavor. It's actually the "coolant" flavored kool-aid.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm not as bothered by the details of this trade as I am the decision-making process that lead to it. This was the wrong time to trade Liriano -- how many contenders are willing to add a question mark (albeit a powerful one) to a rotation during a pennant drive? The Twins seem to be missing the concept of selling high and buying low. Young and Liriano really should have been dealt when they were more promising. I know, I know, the moves would have been unpopular, but it seems like the doubts from management have been there for both of these players for quite some time. Honestly, I hope Liriano does well, but because it's a within-division trade, if he does do very well it may signal the end of Anderson's or TR's career with the team.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not as bothered by the details of this trade as I am the decision-making process that lead to it. This was the wrong time to trade Liriano -- how many contenders are willing to add a question mark (albeit a powerful one) to a rotation during a pennant drive? The Twins seem to be missing the concept of selling high and buying low. Young and Liriano really should have been dealt when they were more promising. I know, I know, the moves would have been unpopular, but it seems like the doubts from management have been there for both of these players for quite some time. Honestly, I hope Liriano does well, but because it's a within-division trade, if he does do very well it may signal the end of Anderson's or TR's career with the team.

Actually, Souhan suggested just that thing - trading Young and Liriano after the 2010 season. It went over like a lead balloon.

[Bark's Lounge]

We have to be near our rock bottom. If that is the case, isn't the next step treatment?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Actually, Souhan suggested just that thing - trading Young and Liriano after the 2010 season. It went over like a lead balloon.

As it should have. The Twins were coming off a 94 win season.

[Jerr]

I like Liriano, but he never turned out to be what we all hoped, an ace.

No big loss in his leaving, but the guys we got for him......I'll have to wait and see.

All said, I was at todays game because of him (ticket before the trade) and I'll be there Tuesday because of him.

[ThePuck]

How do we know the Twins didn't negoiate with Liriano for a new contract?

 

Because Ryan said he didn't...ever. He didn't try and Liriano's rep didn't try.

[Jim H]

I enjoy John's posts. He is also good at getting reactions, which this and the other Liriano post does in spades. Still, I wish he was more realistic or at least accurate.

 

Liriano, over the last 4 years, has been the equivilant of Blackburn. One could make a convincing argument that Blackburn has been better. When both have been healthy, Blackburn has probably been better over the last 4 years.

 

So, he is complaining that the Liriano trade netted a return that would have him and most everyone else dancing in the street if the trade had been for Blackburn.

 

Now, it will be too bad if Liriano figures it out and he becomes the pitcher that some Twins fans think he could be. There is no way that this is a bad trade based on Liriano's actual production. Even his good stretches haven't actually produced that many wins. He seems to always pitch just well enough to lose.

 

Complaining that Ryan didn't get a good return for what has been largely a bad pitcher, is stupid. Even more stupid is trying to guess how valuable fairly young, likely pretty talented players will turn out to be. Ecspecially if you are basing those guesses on Baseball America's rating of a year ago.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

Been working all weekend but i wanted to nit pick on 2.

 

1) Liriano's trade value decreases with every start. Because there is a finite amount of starts a pitcher can make in a year so every start he makes as a twin decreases his value

 

2) You don't know what offers they had. Period. I hate it when people say they could have gotten X for player Y. You don't ****ing know.

[Vervehound]

I agree with jorgen. I was hoping the Twins would get someone else's reclamation project but I think a lot of people need to realize how bad Liriano's been. Since 2008, he's had a 89 ERA+ and about 4 WAR, Blackburn has had a 87 ERA+ (in many more innings) and about 3.5 WAR. Liriano has had some nice moments but most pitchers do. He's had a ton of disaster starts and we weren't going to get much for a player like that.

really good underrated point - if you're going to give up upside, try to get upside back. one reclamation project for another.

[powrwrap]

I hate that I was right when I predicted the type of players the Twins would get for Liriano.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2150-Liriano-s-value&p=32407&viewfull=1#post32407

[DaveW]

really good underrated point - if you're going to give up upside, try to get upside back. one reclamation project for another.

That's why I sorta wish the Orioles would have went after Liriano, a guy like Tillman would have been intriguing at least. But did the White Sox have anyone that really fit that bill?

[chopper0080]

All I can think is that the Twins probably got as good of value as they could for Liriano and that speaks more to the level of player Liriano as been over the ineptitude of the Twins front office.

[tobynotjason]

He's not hurt, dude.

 

The pitch f/x numbers from his last start show that his velo was still at it's post-TJ peak and his sinker had, in fact, EPIC levels of sink. In fact, it may have been TOO lively, leading him to throw straight 4-seamers in order to throw strikes, which he located poorly and for which he was punished.

 

His slider topped out at 89. It had great movement numbers too. His stuff is fine, ergo his arm is fine.

 

There is NO explanation other than that the Twins FO are utterly incompetent dinosaurs. How they thought 2 piles of crap was preferable to running him out for a shot at 2 piles of semi-exciting vs. nada is beyond me.

[savvyspy]

I'd also love for someone to point out the last time someone traded a 28 year old 5+ ERA pitcher(2 years in a row) for anything of substantial value in the past.

Maybe the front office waiting until these assets have no trade value before exploring the trade market is the big issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe the front office waiting until these assets have no trade value before exploring the trade market is the big issue.

When should the Twins have dealt Liriano to get value from him? I keep hearing people say this but it doesn't make any sense.

 

2010 - Liriano had best full season of career. Twins were 94 win team.

2011 - Liriano is awful. Has no value.

2012 - Liriano is awful. Pitches better down the stretch. Has marginal value at deadline.

[tobynotjason]

2012 - Liriano is awful. Pitches better down the stretch. Has marginal value at deadline.

He had 6 awful starts to begin the year vs. 11 starts in his good run, so really, he was good more than he was awful.

 

The thing is, Pitch F/X data proves beyond any doubt that his stuff was 'nother class beginning 5.30.2012. It's actually as good as it's ever been post-TJ surgery. (That is, it is incontestable that he is throwing all pitches harder with better movement.) So it's really not that he's been awful with a little good. He's been throwing world-beating stuff (TOTALLY unlike what he threw in early 2012 and in 2011) that he's at times struggled to command. That's objective reality, not dicknbert "narrative". That is, this isn't how he's "always been". This is how he's been this year, since the the end of May, period. His stuff wasn't nearly as good in 2011. It wasn't even quite as good in 2010.

 

Then he gets traded FOR NOTHING after a clunker, just before a shot at redemption, AND just before the deadline would have forced put up or shut up offers. That's why this is so maddening.

[ltwedt]

I hate that the Twins are such a mess on the field - but worse, I hate that they are a bigger mess in the FO!

[Teflon]

Maybe we're really using this trade to evaluate Don Cooper as a pitching coach prospect for next year.

[gunnarthor]

He had 6 awful starts to begin the year vs. 11 starts in his good run, so really, he was good more than he was awful.

 

The thing is, Pitch F/X data proves beyond any doubt that his stuff was 'nother class beginning 5.30.2012. It's actually as good as it's ever been post-TJ surgery. (That is, it is incontestable that he is throwing all pitches harder with better movement.) So it's really not that he's been awful with a little good. He's been throwing world-beating stuff (TOTALLY unlike what he threw in early 2012 and in 2011) that he's at times struggled to command. That's objective reality, not dicknbert "narrative". That is, this isn't how he's "always been". This is how he's been this year, since the the end of May, period. His stuff wasn't nearly as good in 2011. It wasn't even quite as good in 2010.

 

Then he gets traded FOR NOTHING after a clunker, just before a shot at redemption, AND just before the deadline would have forced put up or shut up offers. That's why this is so maddening.

In that 11 'good' run, he had 3 clunkers. The apologizing for Liriano really has gotten out of hand. Over the years we've heard things like the Twins pushed him too hard coming back from injury, Gardy/Andy made him a bad pitcher, the defense let him down, he's unlucky, the Twins are playing with his mind. It's never his fault. He's 28. He's not a prospect anymore, he should be in his prime.

[DaveW]

He had 6 awful starts to begin the year vs. 11 starts in his good run, so really, he was good more than he was awful.

 

 

His 11th start in that "good" run resulted in 2.2 IP, 7H, 7 ER, 3 HR. That goes in the "good" column?

His 11 starts were certainly better then his first 6 starts, but those 11 starts produced a 3.68 ERA. Hardly the world beater you proclaimed.

[DPJ]

His 11th start in that "good" run resulted in 2.2 IP, 7H, 7 ER, 3 HR. That goes in the "good" column?

His 11 starts were certainly better then his first 6 starts, but those 11 starts produced a 3.68 ERA. Hardly the world beater you proclaimed.

Well 10 of his 11 starers were good.

 

See how meaningless cherry-picking numbers are Dave?

[DaveW]

Well 10 of his 11 starers were good.

 

See how meaningless cherry-picking numbers are Dave?

5.1 IP 4 ER 4 BB is good?

5.2 IP 4 ER 3BB is good?

[DPJ]

5.1 IP 4 ER 4 BB is good?

5.2 IP 4 ER 3BB is good?

Blackie would kill for those lines.

[DaveW]

Blackie would kill for those lines.

I assume this is as close as you come to admiting you were mistaken.

 

I will take it.

[twinzgrl]

Many scouts looked at Frankie, but obviously few decided to make an offer. His inconsistency is legendary.

 

I HATE that my team has sucked for two years and that nothing is being done to address the main issue--STARTING PITCHING. Marquis doesn't count.

[mikeee]

Liriano is worth nothing without Butera.

[Twins GFP]

Fire Terry Ryan for making this trade!!!

 

no wait...

 

Fire Rick Anderson for not getting more out of Liriano!!!

 

that doesn't work either...

 

Contract the Twins because they have been bad for about 265 games and they have a whiney fan base with a short term memory!!!

 

There we go.