tobynotjason

What on earth re: Correia is particularly suited to Target Field (which btw had an above average HR Factor last year)? Why is anything about his stuff likely to play significantly better than DIPS numbers would suggest? I mean, sure, superior defense (which has nothing to do with your home park) will proportionately help low K pitchers more than high K pitchers, but it helps all pitchers a lot, and in any case that's an argument at the extreme margin. (Note that I'm not suggesting the Twins have "superior defense", just addressing that argument were that TR's plan.)

Worley is 86th in the league in SIERA among qualified pitchers to lead the Twins. (I assume you're interested in what's likely going forward, not what SSS BABIP and HR/FB numbers have posted.) Correia's 88th. Pelfrey 104th (of 108). Sanchez is 3rd. Jackson's 45th. You might have wanted Saunders, but "ew". (He's 103rd, btw.) Haren's 63rd. McCarthy's 51st. Dempster's 11th. So per the best one-number statistic we have to measure how well a pitcher's done the things he can actually control and how well he's likely to do going forward: yeah, Terry Ryan picked poorly and the one guy who's done superficially "well" (if you ignore everything lately) hasn't posted any numbers that suggest he's anything but thoroughly mediocre. (His ERA actually outpaces his BABIP, by the way, which itself ranks THIRTY TWO places higher than his SIERA. Unsustainable much?)

What other people said re: K%. Every time I see someone cite K/9 or BB/9 I cry inside. My rant: an R squared of .05 (for BABIP) FTW? Really? (Not to mention, McCracken actually found an R of .153 for BABIP in the original study; hits aren't a DIPS stat: they include Home Runs.) And as has been widely understood for almost decade, the year-to-year correlation in BABIP was pretty much totally explained by (1) year-to-year consistency in the team's defense/home park (players who switch teams show close to zero correlation: as in an r of .04); (2) DIPS themselves, which predict BABIP better than BABIP; and (3) pitcher-type tendencies, including the knuckleballer/junkballer effect and gb vs. fb pitchers, with a heavy emphasis on (1). So yeah: strikeout rate and walk rate - ACTUAL rate, not per 27 outs - are THE thing.

I haven't even been on a Twins forum in months. I came here to see why Sano and Rosario weren't playing, hoping they'd been moved semi-aggressively to New Britain. (Of course not, I have learned.) And then I read this article and am immediately reminded of some of the key reasons why I am no longer a Twins fan per se, and of the typically predictable and enervating actions/blather of several of the clowns who embody those reasons (see: Gardenhire, Bremer, Gladden). It was a nice play. His flip carried no risk. But HOW DARE HE not possess that s(t)olid midwestern-protestant-overachiever nose-to-the-grindstone (white) work ethic that, at times, seems to be the ONLY thing extolled by the Twins org. Gladden and Gardenhire were players with very limited skill sets. Their post-playing baseball careers are built on similarly management-friendly mediocrity. Bremer has no discernible skills of any kind. Aaron Hicks has baseball tools they can only dream of. (That said, he should be in AAA developing his hit tool, as was obvious in March to anyone who understands minor league projections and what a red flaggy 25.7% K/AB ratio [his 2012 number vs. RHP] all but guarantees, but my interest in beating such drums on the reg has long since been beaten down to a fine "meh" by the pervasive awfulness of the organization's culture.) Imagine the unadulterated hate if he happened to be a smart guy! I've come to love the Pirates, my former "second team", with more of my soul than I ever loved the Twins. That said, Clint Hurdle does a TON of incredibly irritating things tactically and has a big red face, so sometimes I feel like I haven't really escaped Gardenhire. Then I see stuff like this and realize that, however asinine Hurdle's bullpen management or stubbornness WRT sac bunts and steals, etc., I have never sensed that he's any kind of intolerant, passive aggressive jerk the way I always do WRT Gardenhire. Watching Hurdle put his arm around Starling Marte after he TOOTBLANd in the bottom of the 8th today puts his tactical "genius" in perspective. (Imagine how bad it would have been if Blyleven had been there, too.)

He had 6 awful starts to begin the year vs. 11 starts in his good run, so really, he was good more than he was awful. The thing is, Pitch F/X data proves beyond any doubt that his stuff was 'nother class beginning 5.30.2012. It's actually as good as it's ever been post-TJ surgery. (That is, it is incontestable that he is throwing all pitches harder with better movement.) So it's really not that he's been awful with a little good. He's been throwing world-beating stuff (TOTALLY unlike what he threw in early 2012 and in 2011) that he's at times struggled to command. That's objective reality, not dicknbert "narrative". That is, this isn't how he's "always been". This is how he's been this year, since the the end of May, period. His stuff wasn't nearly as good in 2011. It wasn't even quite as good in 2010. Then he gets traded FOR NOTHING after a clunker, just before a shot at redemption, AND just before the deadline would have forced put up or shut up offers. That's why this is so maddening.

So GUESSING that a better offer won't materialize after a guy whose stuff per pitch f/x is unequivocally, demonstrably, objectively TOTALLY DIFFERENT than it was in 2011 and early 2012 (and actually even better than 2010) makes another start is OK, because, y'know, "he didn't expect better[offers] to come by Tuesday". Just: no. The F.O. is toast. At least Liriano, of whom I'm a much bigger fan at this point than the Twins Org., writ large, will get a chance to work with a real pitching coach.

Best decision I ever made: deciding to commit to watching/following the Pirates as much as I did the Twins in 2008 when the Neal Huntington regime was settling in. It's just SO damn nice cheering for an organization with a front office that realizes it's the 21st century and rarely does anything to incense anyone who's realized similar things. Hopefully the Pohlads decide to cash out on the gift given to them by the people of Minnesota and an owner with a clue comes in and cleans house in the F.O. and field staff. Not. Holding. My. Breath.

He's not hurt, dude. The pitch f/x numbers from his last start show that his velo was still at it's post-TJ peak and his sinker had, in fact, EPIC levels of sink. In fact, it may have been TOO lively, leading him to throw straight 4-seamers in order to throw strikes, which he located poorly and for which he was punished. His slider topped out at 89. It had great movement numbers too. His stuff is fine, ergo his arm is fine. There is NO explanation other than that the Twins FO are utterly incompetent dinosaurs. How they thought 2 piles of crap was preferable to running him out for a shot at 2 piles of semi-exciting vs. nada is beyond me.

diehard, Presley's rehabbing. He's their starting LF and lead off man with Tabata down.

From the perspective of a Pirates fan, this is bordering on ignorant. FYI. Span as a semi-long-term corner? Um... Starling Marte, Robbie Grossman, and oh by the way Alex Presley except for April and May this season. If you've watched the day in, day out you wouldn't have much if any leadoff angst. Sutton's a hot-hand fill-in. Presley raked in his AAA concussion rehab tonight. Willingham has been discussed at length for months on Pirates' boards. Liriano gets an occasional mention. I don't think I've ever heard Span's name even mentioned save as "well, the Twins are probably trying to deal him, but he's not a fit."

Pirates pick next year for Appel would be #8b.

very good news.

I wouldn't say every such argument is "simplistic" (unless it's really merely "THEY'RE RICH AND THEY'RE CHEAP!"), although "ignores real world situations" is absolutely accurate.

No, it isn't. Last year his K/AB as a LHB was 27.5%. (If you meant something else, apologies, but his awful K/AB ratio was the point/raison d'etre of my post. Certainly he is squaring up a bit more [15.9 v. 12.7%] v. RHP [apologies for the "as" vs. "vs" brainfarts above] on balls in play, but his overall profile v. RHP right now doesn't project well at all.)

Law is in deep, deep speculation land (and not at all representative of industry consensus) when he says Appel is the best bet to go 1.1. You never really know how a draft is going to shape up until a couple months out, anyway. Smart Pirates message boards are basically A-OK if he walks, content that next year's draft can't be worse. And lots of very smart folks are just not high on Appel at all: did you hear how underwhelmed Goldtein was on his podcast a couple months ago? But as far as the link goes: Yeah, it's Heyman, ergo it's Boras. It's just posturing, and nobody knows anything. This Pirates fan, FWIW, hopes they sign Buehler with most of the extra money, then offer Appel slot plus any leftover crumbs.