Miguel Sano 1st base or DH?

[Badsmerf]

Are you choosing plouffe over mauer? If plouffe was hitting his career norms the discussion would be much more contentious. Nobody is pushing Sano or mauer right now. If park starts hitting and plouffe comes back, then there are issues. While mauer is the problem, and any 1b in the league hitting like him would be on the bench, nobody is forcing their hand like morneau did when he was young.

[KGB]

I can only imagine, but I'm guessing the call for patience and improvement with continuing work would be different if he made 10 errors in 15 games in the outfield.

[jimmer]

It's harder to get errors in the outfield than it is the infield.  One only needs to look at error totals every year for each position to see that.  He was just as bad in the OF, if not worse, than he has been at 3B.

[KGB]

 

He was just as bad in the OF, if not worse, than he has been at 3B.

Which is my point, seems our level of patience isn't based on actually performance but based on if it's the action we wanted to see.  If you wanted him at third, you need patience and time before considering it a failure but we can judge failure in the outfield within days.

[jimmer]

 

Which is my point, seems our level of patience isn't based on actually performance but based on if it's the action we wanted to see.  If you wanted him at third, you need patience and time before considering it a failure but we can judge failure in the outfield within days.

For my part, I want him at DH. Always have.  The most he should be in the field is 1B when we play in NL parks or occasionally spelling Mauer whenever the team decides Mauer needs a day off (like against Chris Sale).

 

When a player hits as well as he does, but plays defense so terribly like he does, DH is the spot.

[dxpavelka]

He's played fewer games at the 3B at the big league level than he has in the OF.  His short term future is at 3B.  Put him out there and let him get comfortable.  Take his lumps as needed.  Fairly evident that, although I'll be told there is no empirical evidence to back this up, he enjoys playing 3B and that will most likely help him at the plate.  Put him out there and let him play.  Neither he, nor the manager, needs to concern himself with what the fans are saying.  If we haven't seen improvement by a couple months into next year re-evaluate. 

[Willihammer]

Michael Rand post from yesterday on this topic:

http://www.startribune.com/its-not-time-to-panic-yet-about-miguel-sanos-3b-defense/388178812/

[Willihammer]

The sample size argument is interesting. Would he still use it if Sano committed no errors over this stretch of baseball?

We do have 3000 innings of minor league defense to draw from too, where Sano committed roughly an error per every 10 chances.

[jimmer]

 

Michael Rand post from yesterday on this topic:

http://www.startribune.com/its-not-time-to-panic-yet-about-miguel-sanos-3b-defense/388178812/

 

 

'It is this: the Twins under Ryan fell victim too many times to small sample size decision-making, particularly when the small sample was positive. Perhaps it comes from believing too much in your own scouting. Maybe it comes from wanting to believe.'

[jimmer]

 

The sample size argument is interesting. Would he still use it if Sano committed no errors over this stretch of baseball?

We do have 3000 innings of minor league defense to draw from too, where Sano committed roughly an error per every 10 chances.

I think using the small sample size argument he used for Nolasco and Hughes etc (bad signings, or extension, based on short sample size) is a bigger problem when you have a much larger body of work telling you that the positive short sample size you are using to make a call is clearly wrong. 

 

If Sano had been considered a superior fielding 3B in the minors and was having these issues, one might say, 'Okay, clearly rusty, or clearly not really bad based on all we've seen in the minors on defense.'   Correct me if I'm wrong, but great fielder wasn't exactly Sano's scouting report in the minors.  It's my understanding he's been suspect all along, no?

[Willihammer]

Yeah. Course the follow up is "he can get better like Plouffe did." Well maybe, but what precendent is there? Plouffe is a bad example because he was a better fielder than Sano was at every level. Hell he was better at short than Sano has ever been at third.

 

If I get time maybe I'll try to find some precendent for the magnitute of improvement that would be needed to bring Sano up to being an average fielder, from such a low minors baseline.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I plead guilty to "wanting to believe" like the article suggested, and I admit that fielding metrics have flaws, but realistically, who is the best third baseman right now, and who is the best third baseman going forward?

 

In comparison to Plouffe, what Sano gives away in easy plays missed, he more than makes up for in range and arm strength.

 

Yes? No?

[jimmer]

 

I plead guilty to "wanting to believe" like the article suggested, and I admit that fielding metrics have flaws, but realistically, who is the best third baseman right now, and who is the best third baseman going forward?

In comparison to Plouffe, what Sano gives away in easy plays missed, he more than makes up for in range and arm strength.

Yes? No?

Are you suggesting Sano has good range?

[Willihammer]

I'll say this, just comparing Sano's minor league fielding percentage straight up to some of the worst 3Bs in recent memory (Jerry Hairston, Aviles, Cantu, and Eduardo Nunez), Sano's .902 fielding percentage is the worst and its not even that close.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Are you suggesting Sano has good range?

Are you suggesting he doesn't?

 

Are you answering my question?

 

I am coming up with some data which I will share in a minute.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think using the small sample size argument he used for Nolasco and Hughes etc (bad signings, or extension, based on short sample size) is a bigger problem when you have a much larger body of work telling you that the positive short sample size you are using to make a call is clearly wrong. 

 

If Sano had been considered a superior fielding 3B in the minors and was having these issues, one might say, 'Okay, clearly rusty, or clearly not really bad based on all we've seen in the minors on defense.'   Correct me if I'm wrong, but great fielder wasn't exactly Sano's scouting report in the minors.  It's my understanding he's been suspect all along, no?

Sure, the only question to me is whether he's this bad or just kinda bad.

 

I can deal with kinda bad for a year or two until he inevitably moves to first base or DH.

 

Hell, he might even have an outside chance of being only a little bad if he works on it really hard.

 

Either way, in a lost season there's really nothing to lose by throwing him out there and seeing what happens. When wins don't matter, it doesn't hurt to see what kind of upside a guy might have in him.

[Kwak]

Much of this thread is based on the hope that Sano would be this all-around star and would fill a key (and difficult to fill adequately) position. Plouffe was never this bad (nor as good as claimed by some). Repetition simply polished the skills he had and built his self-confidence. Using Sano at 3B to finish this season is OK because A) this season is dead anyway  it allows a reasonable length of time to assess both present and likely future performance at 3B and C) shows Sano just how far away he is from the "star" level to which he aspires.

 

What about 2017 and 3B? That's for the next "brain trust" to decide.

 

As a sidelight, I wonder if one of the reasons Sano was sent (banished?) to RF was that Ryan strongly suspected that Sano would be unsuitable at 3B for the Twins. Hmm?

[jimmer]

 

Are you suggesting he doesn't?

Are you answering my question?

I am coming up with some data which I will share in a minute.

I am suggesting that he doesn't.  The best play I can remember seeing him do, for range, was when he took 3 steps to his right to get to a slow hit two hopper.  Took him four-five mini-steps to stop his momentum and then he used the arm to get the guy by a step.  Bremer went nuts calling it extra-ordinary and at the same time I was thinking thats pretty ordinary.

 

I have to believe a healthy Plouffe would be a better fielder than Sano now and in the future.  Though I doubt Plouffe is with us next year as a starter, if at all.

[Major League Ready]

 

Which is my point, seems our level of patience isn't based on actually performance but based on if it's the action we wanted to see.  If you wanted him at third, you need patience and time before considering it a failure but we can judge failure in the outfield within days.

That's pretty damn insightful. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I went to Fangraphs, sorted all third baseman with 150 innings played in 2016. Small sample alert. Then I found the Out-of-Zone (OOZ) plays made, divided by innings played, multiplied by 9. Similar to how ERA is calculated. I am not sure how Fangraphs determines OOZ information. I was looking for an OOZ/9, or how many out of zone plays a player converted per nine innings.  

 

Plouffe did better than I expected with his hurt ribs but by this measure, you could argue Sano showed more range than Plouffe. (yes! i was right on the internet!)

 

Out of 43 third baseman in MLB with 150 innings at third, Sano was 9th, Plouffe was 22nd, and league average falls between 16th and 17th. This is the highlighted column - sorry for the small print in image.

 

This doesn't tell if Sano's range makes up for his errors, but it's still my opinion it does. Because I want to believe  Especially if those are plays toward the line that Plouffe doesn't make well anymore, for example the double play ball Springer hit in Meyer's start that went for an RBI double. 

 

Sano's OOZ/9 was 0.457, league avg was 0.356, Plouffe was at 0.335. For comparison, Arenado has a 0.596 and Valencia has a 0.236 (which is not anywhere close to worst). Last season Plouffe was 0.41, the seasons before that he was 0.21, 0.18, 0.16, and Sano was 0.23 last season with 2 OOZ plays in 77 innings

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

 

I'll say this, just comparing Sano's minor league fielding percentage straight up to some of the worst 3Bs in recent memory (Jerry Hairston, Aviles, Cantu, and Eduardo Nunez), Sano's .902 fielding percentage is the worst and its not even that close.

Corey Koskie was horrible.  Dan Gladden was on 1500 today and he said Koskie worked very hard with Gardenhire and became an excellent defensive 3B.  He simply took a ton of IF practice. 

 

Keep in mind that Sano does not have to be great to be more valuable as 3B than a DH.  DH/1B types that can hit are waaaaay easier to find than guys who can hit and play acceptable D at 3B.  He is also has a cannon that will make up for some of his other shortcomings.   He appears to be quite good at making the play on short balls, part of that being able to throw very strong on the move forward.  I have no statistical evidence,  This is purely by observation and an admittedly SSS.  What say the rest of you on his ability to field a weakly hit ball or a bunt?

[jimmer]

 

Corey Koskie was horrible.  Dan Gladden was on 1500 today and he said Koskie worked very hard with Gardenhire and became an excellent defensive 3B.  He simply took a ton of IF practice. 

 

Keep in mind that Sano does not have to be great to be more valuable as 3B than a DH.  DH/1B types that can hit are waaaaay easier to find than guys who can hit and play acceptable D at 3B.  He is also has a cannon that will make up for some of his other shortcomings.   He appears to be quite good at making the play on short balls, part of that being able to throw very strong on the move forward.  I have no statistical evidence,  This is purely by observation and an admittedly SSS.  What say the rest of you on his ability to field a weakly hit ball or a bunt?

I've said much earlier either on this thread or another that his strength is charging in on weak hit balls and throwing.  He is very good at that.

[adorduan]

 

The sample size argument is interesting. Would he still use it if Sano committed no errors over this stretch of baseball?

We do have 3000 innings of minor league defense to draw from too, where Sano committed roughly an error per every 10 chances.

  They will blame it on the bad minor league infields.

[Major League Ready]

 

I've said much earlier either on this thread or another that his strength is charging in on weak hit balls and throwing.  He is very good at that.

I brought it up because I thought I had read something once that this was a concern at 3B given his size.  It sure looked to me like it was a strength but I wondered if my eyes deceived me.  Are you a believer he can get to average in terms of more routine grounders?  My gut on that one says he could if he is willing to put in the work.  I would love to see a report about how hard he is working on making these routine plays.  I would like to see him stick because its fun to watch him throw on a line across the diamond and it's usually a strike.

[stringer bell]

Sano is a lousy fielder and Plouffe is average to a tick above in my book. On swinging bunts I've seen Sano make the play look pretty easy, but regular third basemen seem to make that play routinely, even through to us fans it looks like it is a low percentage of success play. Sano certainly has a strong arm and I don't think his first step is horrendous.However an error every other day is absurdly bad, especially in light of today's manicured infields and kind official scoring. Let him play third, he has the raw skills to be okay, but let's not delude ourselves into believing his fielding thus far has been anything close to acceptable.