Article: Projecting Returns

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?831-Projecting-Returns

[Fanatic Jack]

Seth,

 

You are dreaming if you believe the Twins get anything close to a big package for anybody other than Josh Willingham and he is off the table. I most likely am wrong but just dont have faith in Terry Ryan anymore. He clearly over played his hand and held on to some of these guys too long.

[DPJ]

It appears that the going rate is a pitching prospect who ranks somewhere in the 30-60 range (likely a team's #1 or #2 prospect), along with a second prospect who ranks in that team's Top 10, and maybe even one more player who ranks outside the top ten but still has potential.

 

 

Hahahahahaha

[Brock Beauchamp]

Seth,

 

You are dreaming if you believe the Twins get anything close to a big package for anybody other than Josh Willingham and he is off the table. I most likely am wrong but just dont have faith in Terry Ryan anymore. He clearly over played his hand and held on to some of these guys too long.

There is still a week until the deadline. How has he held on to anything too long? It's up to contending teams to get serious about trading for help, not for teams out of contention to push players that may not be at their peak value. There are still over a half dozen teams out there that will react to the trades over the past few days and then probably overreact to compensate against division rivals. The trade season is barely getting rolling at this point.

 

I'd wait until 3pm on the 31st to judge Ryan's management of this deadline. Every year, most of the biggest deals happen in the final 48 hours of the deadline.

[J-Dog Dungan]

I think that if teams are wanting a "quality" (relative term) starting pitcher and relatively successful leadoff hitter and CF'er, they might give up more than they would this year because of the new playoff format.

[Thrylos]

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns.

Well, that entirely depends on the team in question and what they could offer for those two players.

 

But I don't necessarily disagree with your point. If a team has enough prospects to swing that deal, it could be a good one for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, most believe the new playoff format hurts the trade market. If you don't win your division, and you are in the WC, you are now only guaranteed 1 more game, and that game could be on the road. Compare that to the old days, when you were guaranteed multiple post season games, and at least one at home. That's a big income difference.

 

I will reserve judgement on TR until the end of this deadline, but I have super, super low expectations.

[cr9617]

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.

That's a fine idea, except you have to identify a team that wants to take both guys, and be willing to pay for them. That eliminates most teams.

[johnnydakota]

Well, that entirely depends on the team in question and what they could offer for those two players.

 

But I don't necessarily disagree with your point. If a team has enough prospects to swing that deal, it could be a good one for the Twins.

cincy... span ,liriano for hamilton,corcino and cingrani

[DaveW]

cincy... span ,liriano for hamilton,corcino and cingrani

I would do that in a heartbeat. I doubt Cincy would though.

 

2014 lineup featuring Hamilton, Hicks, Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, Benson, Doumit, Plouffe would be drool inducing.

[DPJ]

2014 lineup featuring Hamilton, Hicks, Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, Benson, Doumit, Plouffe would be drool inducing.

I drool over a lineup too that features 4 guys that have done nothing at the major league level.

[DaveW]

I drool over a lineup too that features 4 guys that have done nothing at the major league level.

2014 at the very least they would be fast as hell and amazing defensively.

[DPJ]

2014 at the very least they would be fast as hell and amazing defensively.

My pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

[notoriousgod71]

My pants are getting tight just thinking about it.

Rep.

[Shane Wahl]

I still think that the Twins should be smart enough to package Liriano as Span for a team that is looking for a SP and a CF/leadoff hitter. THAT would maximize returns. Another little stated fact about both Liriano and Span, as far as trades are involved: They are lefties so they do carry a premium.

See the Cincinnati Reds.

[jimbo92107]

That's a fine idea, except you have to identify a team that wants to take both guys, and be willing to pay for them. That eliminates most teams.

A well-targeted package deal needs only one team as a partner. Also, you can offer a Liriano + Span deal at the same time that you market both players separately. If one of them goes, then you still have some value for the other. The package deal is out there as an option, and the team that would go for it would probably contact Terry Ryan on their own fairly early, before the opportunity disappears.

 

At the same time, I'd hate to see them both go. Span is such a solid player, and Liriano is getting better. I'm dismissing his latest outing as tension from all the trade rumors.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

lets get real here. Free agency rentals have been doomed by the new agreement. To get a draft pick for Liriano Twins must offer him $12million which is DAM foolish. If they trade him, the new team gets no compensation. Until last night, Liriano was hot for once. Now back to normal. A team picking up Liriano gets him for 8-10 starts--thats it. No value in that. (Maybe for the Nats to replace soon to be shut down Strasberg). The Twins will get nothing for him thanks to the new agreement.

 

As to Span, Willingham etc. Yes ask for a ton, if you get a top prospect like the Marlins did, go for it, if you dont, dont. The Twins have very little of value.

[nicksaviking]

A Liriano/Span package should be about as similar as the Sanchez/Infante combo. Rental pitcher with a controlable top of the lineup bat, though Span's deal is cheaper and longer. While you're talking to the Reds, start dialing the Rangers.

[Seth Stohs]

Generally speaking, you get a LOT more in return by trading players individually. If they can get the above deal from Cincinnati, great (they couldn't). Liriano is maybe a step below Sanchez... but Span is light-years ahead of Infante.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If, in fact, the Dempster deal falls through, I wonder if the Braves offer Delgado for Frankie.

[DPJ]

Generally speaking, you get a LOT more in return by trading players individually. If they can get the above deal from Cincinnati, great (they couldn't). Liriano is maybe a step below Sanchez... but Span is light-years ahead of Infante.

Personally I'm not a big fan of looking at other trades and applying that to what people think the Twins should get. There's so many other factors that go into things, but I pray the Twins don't think they should get a Turner+ type deal.

[Siehbiscuit]

All it takes is one team that is desparate enough. Infante fills a need at 2B, and Sanchez a need in the Tigers rotation. Teams that think they are a player or two away OFTEN over pay in prospects, because the think they can win now with these minor tweaks. Sanchez is a rental and Infante has one year left on his deal. Span has TWO more club controlled years and is a better plater than Infante that can leadoff for a team. Liriano has the potential to be better than Sanchez, but Sanchez will be far more reliable and consistent. It only takes one team to over pay.

[DPJ]

All it takes is one team that is desparate enough. Infante fills a need at 2B, and Sanchez a need in the Tigers rotation. Teams that think they are a player or two away OFTEN over pay in prospects, because the think they can win now with these minor tweaks. Sanchez is a rental and Infante has one year left on his deal. Span has TWO more club controlled years and is a better plater than Infante that can leadoff for a team. Liriano has the potential to be better than Sanchez, but Sanchez will be far more reliable and consistent. It only takes one team to over pay.

 

You're right about all that, still doesn't mean that the Marlins/Tigers trade should apply to what the Twins are trying to do with Span and Liriano. Like you said all it takes is one team, but on the flip side you have to have that one team desperate enough.

[nicksaviking]

Generally speaking, you get a LOT more in return by trading players individually. If they can get the above deal from Cincinnati, great (they couldn't). Liriano is maybe a step below Sanchez... but Span is light-years ahead of Infante.

This is totally right, but more and better are quite different as far as prospects go. At this point I'd rather have one top 20-30 prospect and another B prospect than a half dozen B, C or throw-in guys. There's value either way you go, but if the Twins are going to blow this thing up I think they should have one guy they can hold up to the fan base and say, wait till you see him.