JR Graham Traded To Yankees

[Dman]

I am glad they let him go.  He never looked good to me. AAAA player all the way.  Losing Gilmartin and Jones hurts but I wasn't huge fans of those guys anyway.  We have young improving pitchers that are going to need 40 man spots after this year and are likely better future options.  There is no angst here for me.  Let's keep moving the young guys forward.

[Mr. Brooks]

This Zach Jones?

 

25 yrs old and started 2015 in A ball, moved to AA

 

April 21, 2016 Milwaukee Brewers transferred RHP Zack Jones from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list. Right shoulder.

 

From a SB Nation article:

 

"The good news is that nearly 40% of Jones' at-bats end without a ball being put into play; the bad news is that nearly 40% of those at-bats end in walks. Jones strikes out a ton of batters -- he had an 11.85 K/9 in 2015 -- but it came with an ugly 4.88 BB/9."

 

2015 CHA SOU AA 3 2 6.00 27 0 0 0 10 12 27.0 24 18 18 3 1 18 0 30 .247 1.56 0.58

2015 FTM FSL A(Adv) 2 2 2.19 18 0 0 0 2 3 24.2 14 8 6 0 3 10 0 38 .157 0.97 0.68

 

I'm not wetting my drawers over him, either.

So we should just throw away guys with upside, for no reason, because they are not perfect prospects?

 

Sure, on a case by case basis, you can throw away Gilmartin, Jones, and Graham, for no reason, and probably get away with it. But, eventually you throw away enough of them and one is going to wind up being a productive player.

[jokin]

 

I am glad they let him go.  He never looked good to me. AAAA player all the way.  Losing Gilmartin and Jones hurts but I wasn't huge fans of those guys anyway.  We have young improving pitchers that are going to need 40 man spots after this year and are likely better future options.  

There is no angst here for me.  Let's keep moving the young guys forward.

 

We've been hearing this for years, still waiting. ...

 

And yes, angst is needed, especially as slowly as these college RPs are moving forward, and when the guys who were specifically acquired to be hard-throwing projected SP rotation cornerstones are either in strange roles or are presently missing in action.

[jokin]

 

 

I don't think promoting them too slow is the bigger issue.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree. There is strong evidence to suggest that all of the guys you mention except the obvious exception of Berrios (and even more of the college-drafted arms not mentioned- which is especially frustrating), seem to develop verrrrrry slowly in the Twins system, if at all.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Harsh judgement. You see a guy with a really live arm, coming off an injury. He's a former high draft pick, brings the ball mid-90's, sharp breaking ball... You grab him with Rule 5, stash him a year, see that he still needs some polish. 

 

Sometimes these moves don't work out. If Graham were a sure thing, he would never have been a Rule 5 guy.

 

You know what you do then?  Work out a trade if you like him that much so you can put him in AAA and work on him there.  

 

We literally spent an entire year hiding him in the bullpen so we could retain his rights and then dropped his rights a month into our first year of control.  So I stick by that assessment - either that initial hope we saw on him was foolish or we're making a really harsh snap judgement now for no reason.  

[jokin]

 

Chargois has struggled since his first five games but was still promoted to Rochester. Nick Burdi wasn't good last year and got hurt this year. Berrios debuted in the big leagues at 21. Meyer, maybe a cup of coffee in 2014, but hard to say he should have been up in 2015, and now hurt again...

 

May was called up right when he was ready. Probably would have been a month or two sooner, but he hurt his (ankle?) before the Futures Game. Pressly was a Rule 5 guy, and he was called back up relatively quickly the following year. He got hurt last year. Tonkin had several opportunities, though few were extended. 

 

Also, Melotakis missed a year, and struggled early this year at AA. Reed's ERA in AA is again high. 

 

 

 

Maybe we need to ask why so many of these guys, almost all of whom throw 95+ FBs aren't making it?

[jokin]

 

A few weeks ago, people were calling for Graham to be DFAd.  Now, we're complaining b/c he was traded?  Even if it becomes cash considerations, why are we complaining about this?

 

Because he's a much higher upside arm than the retreads littering the Rochester roster? And because the organization inexplicably gave up on him after holding a valuable roster spot for more than a year-even though options are remaining? And maybe that giving up on him is a reflection on the continued inability of this organization to get the high-upside arms to the majors, ready to contribute?

 

Maybe that's why?

[Thrylos]

 

Maybe we need to ask why so many of these guys, almost all of whom throw 95+ FBs aren't making it?

 

a. there were not MLB material to begin with - which means Deron Johnson needs to go.

or

b. the Twins MiLB development system has issues - which means Brad Steil needs to go.

 

I'd fire them both, just in case.

[jokin]

 

Add Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Boer, Bard, Tootle, Bulluck just off the top of my head. Reed is bad twice in AA, Burdi isn't rising as predicted, Cederoth is struggling to be on the field in Low A. Melotakis- not rising. Chargois- looks iffy. Lot of washouts of high selections. Is it bad selection, bad development, or just par for the course? Seems like one should have made it.

 

Add Wimmers to the high draft pick washout category (yet another wasted 1st RD pick).

[jokin]

 

a. there were not MLB material to begin with - which means Deron Johnson needs to go.

or

b. the Twins MiLB development system has issues - which means Brad Steil needs to go.

 

I'd fire them both, just in case.

 

Thry, I don't think there was a bigger proponent in fast-tracking Burdi than yourself.  And after seeing him throw in the CWS with Lousiville, it seemed hard to argue against it- what with his two devastating pitches, it appeared he only needed minor refinements in order to quickly become a major league impact RP.

 

The onus might fall on both of these guys- they might both be guilty of assuming things about the other not in evidence.

[Dman]

 

We've been hearing this for years, still waiting. ...

 

And yes, angst is needed, especially as slowly as these college RPs are moving forward, and when the guys who were specifically acquired to be hard-throwing projected SP rotation cornerstones are either in strange roles or are presently missing in action.

Yeah good point but the pitchers we have now at least seem capable of striking guys out.  I think things will work out better this time. I have been dead wrong about guys many times Gilmartin being one of them.  He seemed very hittable to me as a starter but he looks to be valuable as a reliever.  In hindsight the Twins really could have used him.  At the time I liked Wheeler better and Wheelhouse was very disappointing last year. Hoping he helps the team eventually but time is running out for him.

 

 As a lot of people have already said the timing of the move doesn't make a lot of sense unless the Twins feel that looking ahead he just isn't likely to a part of the future.  I kind of agree and am OK with the decision but I get why others are not.,

 

Your analysis is usually pretty spot on most of the time.  I just feel differently about this one and I am not saying I am right just how I feel.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Part of the justification for spending early round draft picks on them was that they thought they'd be fast movers.
Clearly they were wrong.

 

Can't predict injuries... When healthy, these guys have moved quickly.

[jokin]

 

Yeah good point but the pitchers we have now at least seem capable of striking guys out.  I think things will work out better this time. I have been dead wrong about guys many times Gilmartin being one of them.  He seemed very hittable to me as a starter but he looks to be valuable as a reliever.  In hindsight the Twins really could have used him.  At the time I liked Wheeler better and Wheelhouse was very disappointing last year. Hoping he helps the team eventually but time is running out for him.

 

 As a lot of people have already said the timing of the move doesn't make a lot of sense unless the Twins feel that looking ahead he just isn't likely to a part of the future.  I kind of agree and am OK with the decision but I get why others are not.,

 

Your analysis is usually pretty spot on most of the time.  I just feel differently about this one and I am not saying I am right just how I feel.

 

Great point on the improved K% rate this season and great point about Wheeler- he seems to have upped his game quite a bit- almost a different pitcher this season. Still not sure how his pitching translates to the majors, but for sure things are, and will continue to get crowded for the prospects waiting for their major league opportunity- both RPs and SPs.

 

I just don't like the track record for the Twins on getting things right more than they get things wrong in terms of reasonably rapidly producing bona fide impact pitchers from their system.  (Someone's going to bring up Berrios- and I believe he is a special case- he seems to have put in the time from HS to stake his own path to major leagues).

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Thry, I don't think there was a bigger proponent in fast-tracking Burdi than yourself.  And after seeing him throw in the CWS with Lousiville, it seemed hard to argue against it- what with his two devastating pitches, it appeared he only needed minor refinements in order to quickly become a major league impact RP.

 

The onus might fall on both of these guys- they might both be guilty of assuming things about the other not in evidence.

 

Burdi is hurt.  Bone bruise.

 

Part of the issue with Burdi is that the Twins thought that his delivery was "too violent" and messed with it at Chattanooga. Thus the walks last season.  Finally got his act together late in the season and in time for the AFL.   Got hurt this season.  Hope he will be wearing a Twins' uniform this season because he is better than mostly every pitcher who did so this season.

 

[Rosterman]

I'm sure Graham is glad to be gone. For now. Still on a 40-man and getting the pay!

 

[jokin]

 

Burdi is hurt.  Bone bruise.

 

Part of the issue with Burdi is that the Twins thought that his delivery was "too violent" and messed with it at Chattanooga. Thus the walks last season.  Finally got his act together late in the season and in time for the AFL.   Got hurt this season.  Hope he will be wearing a Twins' uniform this season because he is better than mostly every pitcher who did so this season.

 

I know he's currently hurt. But there is little to no evidence that any Twins instruction thus far has actually propelled Burdi forward towards the major league roster- he seems to be on the perpetual- 1-step-forward-2-steps-back track. And do any of us actually believe if he were to get healthy soon that he would be dotting the Twins roster anytime soon? (I think there's only an outside chance he even gets the September call-up).

[jokin]

 

 

Can't predict injuries... When healthy, these guys have moved quickly.

 

Is there any service out there that tracks prospect pitcher injury rates? The Twins seem to have more than there fair share of heath "setbacks". Is there a training component lacking on the Twins' part that is leading to a higher injury rate?

[DaveW]

Can't predict injuries... When healthy, these guys have moved quickly.

With pitchers there are certainly ways to predict which guys will be more injury prone then others, throwing style, body size, pitch selection etc.

 

Drafting RP types in the 1st,2nd or 3rd rounds in general has proven to be a pretty poor use of high draft picks anyways. If a guy isn't good enough to start for his college team, there is a good shot he isn't good enough to stick on a major league team no matter the role. Of course there are exceptions, which is why you take a couple of Those types in the mid rounds, not multiple in the first 3-4 rounds every other year or so.

[Kwak]

They didn't just take college RPs early, they took them middle and late.  The real problem is that the Twins aren't very good at developing ML pitchers.  Therefore, they are forced to draft gobs of pitchers in hopes they can find one per year.  They alternatives are the dumpster-diving of Ryan's past, or the free-agent signings which haven't worked vey well.

 

I am surprised at the teeth-gnashing over Graham  I watched him "pitch" (his last game as a Twin) and concluded:  "This guy is crap."  Apparently Twins management agreed and demoted him immediately.  The fact that someone is offering cash for Graham is "manna from heaven" and there should be no hesitation about accepting it for him!

[jorgenswest]

I'm sure Graham is glad to be gone. For now. Still on a 40-man and getting the pay!

I believe that a day in the majors (maybe even in the previous season) guarantees the multiple year on the 40 man pay at the minor league level. I don't think his status with the Yankees changed his pay status. He would have received the same had he cleared and remained with the Twins. He did lose a chunk of his 26 year old season in limbo and will likely lose another chunk when removed from the 40 by the Yankees. This hurts players careers and there is no limit to how many times they can be DFA'd in the season. I don't understand your emphasis on getting the pay.

 

Salary for second year on 40-man roster or if one or more days of Major League service time:

2015: $82,700

[Otto von Ballpark]

I believe that a day in the majors (maybe even in the previous season) guarantees the multiple year on the 40 man pay at the minor league level. I don't think his status with the Yankees changed his pay status. He would have received the same had he cleared and remained with the Twins.

 

 

Do you have a cite for that? I hadn't heard that before (that he would get the same salary whether he was on the 40 man or not). The quote you provided doesn't indicate that at all, only specifying his salary while he is on the 40-man.

 

The "chunk" Graham lost to thr DFa process was a week. A week for which he got the MLB minimum salary, probably north of $20k just for that week alone, over 6 times what he would have made in the minor leagues during that time.

 

Also, by staying on a 40 man roster with the Yankees, Graham has greatly improved his chances for a return trip to MLB this season, if not as an emergency/26th man situation with NY, then getting claimed by another team in need if/when they try to pass him through waivers again. Had he cleared waivers and been outrighted by the Twins, he would have been minor league chattel of the Twins for the rest of the season, who would have little incentive to add him back to the roster quickly, and his services would not be readily available to other clubs.

 

I can't imagine a situation where a player would prefer to get dropped from a 40-man roster if another team was willing to claim them, even if only temporarily.

[jorgenswest]

Looking for a link I found something I didn't know. The difference in ten days a pay becomes smaller.

 

Minor league salary must be at least 60% of the player’s combined minor league and Major League salary in the preceding season.

 

http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-league-salary/

 

If a player is in the minors when DFA'd (in order to clear a spot on the 40), I am not certain they get major league pay while DFA'd. Since both O'Rourke and Graham had options they could have been returned to the minors and then DFA'd. When the Yankees remove Graham fro the 40, it will likely be while he is in the minors.

 

If it happens once this season, it should not matters. It hurts careers when the acquiring team DFA's them shortly after acquiring.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/another-look-at-flaws-in-the-waiver-system.html

[jokin]

 

They didn't just take college RPs early, they took them middle and late.  The real problem is that the Twins aren't very good at developing ML pitchers.  Therefore, they are forced to draft gobs of pitchers in hopes they can find one per year.  They alternatives are the dumpster-diving of Ryan's past, or the free-agent signings which haven't worked vey well.

 

I am surprised at the teeth-gnashing over Graham  I watched him "pitch" (his last game as a Twin) and concluded:  "This guy is crap."  Apparently Twins management agreed and demoted him immediately.  The fact that someone is offering cash for Graham is "manna from heaven" and there should be no hesitation about accepting it for him!

 

I wholeheartedly agree with your first paragraph. But a guy with 95MPH+ stuff who is currently struggling, should not necessarily be dismissed out of hand as a "crap pitcher", especially when time has been invested and there is still time to straighten things out .  That sort of title- crap pitcher- can more accurately be worn by scads of the type of guys who the Twins have promoted in this decade- how soon can we forget Albers, Hernandez, Johnson, Robertson, Deduno, Oliveros, Hendriks, Walters, De Vries, Vasquez, Waldrop?

[howeda7]

+1. There is no excuse for burning a roster spot the last 3 months of 2015 while in contention and then giving up on him weeks into the following season. One or the other was a deeply flawed decision. Borderline incompetence. 

So either the team badly mis-identified him as a future contributor or they bungled keeping him on the roster (but rarely using him) for an entire year.  

 

Either way it's hard to be anything other than frustrated about the Twins/Graham situation. 

 

[stringer bell]

 

They gave up 2 players to keep him (Gilmartin and Jones), then gave him one month before selling him.
We don't yet know whether he panned out or not, he hasn't been given time.

It isn't fair to say they gave up two players to keep Graham. The Rule V is always a crapshoot and I don't think either Gilmartin or Jones were guys that 20 or even 10 teams wanted--Gilmartin had been a so-so starter, was older,not high velocity, but lefthanded. The Mets had a huge need for a lefty in the bullpen and tried him--it worked last year. Gilmartin didn't make the Mets staff this spring and has just recently been recalled.

 

Jones has had control issues and got passed on until the second round of the Rule V draft. He's on Milwaukee's DL, so he'll have to be kept not only this year, but into next year. It is no sure thing that he'll ever pitch for the Brewers and IMHO still better than a 50-50 proposition that he's offered back to the Twins.

 

The Twins gambled that they wouldn't lose either of the guys in the Rule V, but they did. It isn't like they put two Hall of Famers out to be grabbed up. They thought Graham had enough stuff to succeed and now are convinced that even getting into great shape that he isn't.

 

It is another decision that really hasn't worked out, but I wouldn't put it quite as high on the mistake list as signing Ricky Nolasco or DFAing David Ortiz.

[DaveW]

They didn't just take college RPs early, they took them middle and late. !

False. Tyler Jay, Carlos Guiterez were both 1st rounders I believe, they drafted plenty of others in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as well.Kyle Cody in the 2nd round last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

It isn't fair to say they gave up two players to keep Graham. The Rule V is always a crapshoot and I don't think either Gilmartin or Jones were guys that 20 or even 10 teams wanted--Gilmartin had been a so-so starter, was older,not high velocity, but lefthanded. The Mets had a huge need for a lefty in the bullpen and tried him--it worked last year. Gilmartin didn't make the Mets staff this spring and has just recently been recalled.

 

Jones has had control issues and got passed on until the second round of the Rule V draft. He's on Milwaukee's DL, so he'll have to be kept not only this year, but into next year. It is no sure thing that he'll ever pitch for the Brewers and IMHO still better than a 50-50 proposition that he's offered back to the Twins.

 

The Twins gambled that they wouldn't lose either of the guys in the Rule V, but they did. It isn't like they put two Hall of Famers out to be grabbed up. They thought Graham had enough stuff to succeed and now are convinced that even getting into great shape that he isn't.

 

It is another decision that really hasn't worked out, but I wouldn't put it quite as high on the mistake list as signing Ricky Nolasco or DFAing David Ortiz.

It only takes 1 team wanting them, not 10 or 20.

Go back and read the thread when Jones wasn't protected. Plenty of us knew he'd be selected.

The Twins chose to protect Graham over Jones, knowing that Jones was likely to be taken, and now they have neither.

This team can talk all they want about changing their view on strikeouts, but when they keep guys like Wimmers and Dean over guys like Jones and Graham, it tells me nothing has changed.

[jokin]

 

* It only takes 1 team wanting them, not 10 or 20.
* Go back and read the thread when Jones wasn't protected. Plenty of us knew he'd be selected.
* The Twins chose to protect Graham over Jones, knowing that Jones was likely to be taken, and now they have neither.
* This team can talk all they want about changing their view on strikeouts, but when they keep guys like Wimmers and Dean over guys like Jones and Graham, it tells me nothing has changed.

 

All points... spot on

 

(You've been on fire this w/e, Mr. Br.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking for a link I found something I didn't know. The difference in ten days a pay becomes smaller.

 

Minor league salary must be at least 60% of the player’s combined minor league and Major League salary in the preceding season.

 

http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-league-salary/

 

If a player is in the minors when DFA'd (in order to clear a spot on the 40), I am not certain they get major league pay while DFA'd. Since both O'Rourke and Graham had options they could have been returned to the minors and then DFA'd. When the Yankees remove Graham fro the 40, it will likely be while he is in the minors.

 

If it happens once this season, it should not matters. It hurts careers when the acquiring team DFA's them shortly after acquiring.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/another-look-at-flaws-in-the-waiver-system.html

Thanks for the info. The 60% split salary is interesting.

 

A player can't be optioned then immediately DFA'd, though:

 

"A player on Optional Assignment to the minors must be "Recalled - Not to Report" before he can be Designated for Assignment. The player continues to be paid and the player accrues MLB Service Time for the entire period of time he is Designated for Assignment during the MLB regular season."

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3535

 

I agree that the 10 day window should be shortened, but I still think you exaggerating the effects. Putting extra roster/time requirements on DFA acquisitions would only make it easier for them to slip off the 40-man roster. I suspect if you gave these guys the right to declare FA, most probably wouldn't -- it would be very difficult to be a fringe player and be a FA mid season, especially if you come with higher salary requirements. Teams will be more willing to quickly make room for a waiver claim (or trade) acquisition, than a marginal free agent. Teams may also pass on claiming a player or trading for him, essentially pressuring him to opt for free agency so they can acquire him at better terms and according to their schedule.

 

Again, the process should be sped up, but I think it is a stretch to say it "hurts careers" versus the alternative ways to be removed from a roster.

[Kwak]

 

False. Tyler Jay, Carlos Guiterez were both 1st rounders I believe, they drafted plenty of others in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as well.Kyle Cody in the 2nd round last year.

You misunderstand--I'll simplify:  They took them early, middle, ​and late.​