Whom do the Twins sell in 2016?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

If Trevor Plouffe was totally healthy right now and hitting closer to what he did last year, I don't think he would get more than a C prospect.  He's a non-tender candidate next year - would be in line to be the 5th highest paid 3rd baseman in baseball

Yeah, there is a pretty big infusion of youth at 3B though and most of them are the better ones in the league. Not a whole lot of stud veteran 3B out there. 

[Mike Sixel]

What is better for the team for the next 5 years.......

 

Sano at 3B right now (and Arcia in RF), or Plouffe at 3B right now and Sano in RF?

[alarp33]

I'll just throw this out there, knowing full well comparisons aren't always quite as simple as this.  

 

Player A, 31 yo 3B:  1,988 MLB Plate Appearances; .269/.311/.424  101 OPS+

 

Player B 29 yo 3B: 2,638 MLB Plate Appearaqnces: .246/.308/.422 100 OPS+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A - Danny Valencia

Player B - Trevor Plouffe 

[bluechipper]

 

If Park keeps this up long enough that he can get a legit blockbuster package, then I absolutely would.
This team is still several years away from contention, how valuable do we really think about 32 or 33 year old DH is going to be by then?
Plus, it allows Sano or Arcia to move to DH.

The several years away comments don't really make a lot of sense to me. Next year's team should have Sano at 3rd and maybe Max Kepler playing in a corner OF spot, with a full year from Buxton and Berrios. 

 

I might be being too optimistic, but reading comments that say that a team is still years away always annoys me.

[howieramone2]

If TR decides to get back into it in 2016, he will need to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball, which is young starting pitching. Berrios or Duffey, Stewart or Jay, Gonsalves or Thorpe.

 

You are not going to get future board favorites, for current board scapegoats.

[alarp33]

 

If TR decides to get back into it in 2016, he will need to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball, which is young starting pitching. Berrios or Duffey, Stewart or Jay, Gonsalves or Thorpe.

 

You are not going to get future board favorites, for current board scapegoats.

 

This thread is about selling because the Twins are 8-23. I don't think anyone was thinking trading Plouffe, Dozier, etc. would get them back into it in 2016. 

[savvyspy]

Anyone except Sano, Park, and Berrios on the major league roster.

 

[d-mac]

 

Melanotokopopulous

 

Melanoma

[d-mac]

 

Different eras.
Most those other guys pitched at the tail end of the steroid era.

Career ERA+
Radke 113
Leiter 112
Santana 99
Pavano 96

Gibson 89
Blackburn 86

Gibson is a lot closer to Blackburn than those other guys. And Gibson is in the middle of his prime years. Those other guys have their decline years in those numbers.

Career FIP minus is a better comparison.

 

Gibson FIP- 104

 

Blackburn FIP- 115

 

Ervin Sanatana FIP- 104 

 

Gibson has an elite groundball rate- Blackburn had a league average GB rate. Gibson's K% is 33% higher than Blackburns. Not to mention Gibson's slider had one of the highest swinging strike rate last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unusually-compelling-kyle-gibson-just-a-tweak-away/

 

Blackburn was a bad pitcher. Gibson may be an enigma inside a paradox, but he has the stuff to be a #2 or 3 starter. 

[Mr. Brooks]

FIP is not predictive (xFIP is.) It just does not count the runs scrub relievers gave up once you got them on base, or runs that slow feet outfielders (and have been a ton with the Twins on Gibson's time from Colabello to Parmelee to Willingham to Arcia to Sano etc.) were responsible by turning singles into triples.

Is there a FIP+ or something similar to compare across different era's.

You simply can't compare Radke to Gibson with FIP alone. The game has changed too much.

[Mr. Brooks]

The several years away comments don't really make a lot of sense to me. Next year's team should have Sano at 3rd and maybe Max Kepler playing in a corner OF spot, with a full year from Buxton and Berrios.

 

I might be being too optimistic, but reading comments that say that a team is still years away always annoys me.

We are the worst team in baseball.

Worse than Atlanta, who traded away all their players and isn't even trying to win.

How can you think those few moves turn this into a world series contender?

 

This team is light years away from anything even resembling a contender.

 

This is what you get when you go half in and half out every year.

It gets you nowhere.

[Mr. Brooks]

Career FIP minus is a better comparison.

 

Gibson FIP- 104

 

Blackburn FIP- 115

 

Ervin Sanatana FIP- 104

 

Gibson has an elite groundball rate- Blackburn had a league average GB rate. Gibson's K% is 33% higher than Blackburns. Not to mention Gibson's slider had one of the highest swinging strike rate last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-unusually-compelling-kyle-gibson-just-a-tweak-away/

 

Blackburn was a bad pitcher. Gibson may be an enigma inside a paradox, but he has the stuff to be a #2 or 3 starter.

Ok, fair enough.

I retract my statement that he's Nick Blackburn.

I'm not comfortable with pitchers who don't miss bats, on a team that doesn't value defense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We are the worst team in baseball.
Worse than Atlanta, who traded away all their players and isn't even trying to win.
How can you think those few moves turn this into a world series contender?

This team is light years away from anything even resembling a contender.

This is what you get when you go half in and half out every year.
It gets you nowhere.

 

Just as I feel last year was luck driven, I feel this team is not this bad.....not even bottom 7 in talent. Maybe not bottom 10 when Sano is at 3B and Buxton is up and acceptable on offense. 

 

So, I do think that a move here and there, and a full year of Berrios (year 2) and some RP help can make this a legit contender. 

[bluechipper]

 

We are the worst team in baseball.
Worse than Atlanta, who traded away all their players and isn't even trying to win.
How can you think those few moves turn this into a world series contender?

This team is light years away from anything even resembling a contender.

This is what you get when you go half in and half out every year.
It gets you nowhere.

And yet the Twins have had a top 3 minor league system for years now, with most of those guys already in the majors, or close to it. I'm assuming it's going to pay off soon.

 

Turnarounds in baseball can happen year to year.

 

 

[laloesch]

I think we are closing in on fire sale territory.  

 

Sell list

 

Plouffe

Dozier

Nunez

Gibson

Nolasco

Perkins

 

Possible sell list

 

Park

Arcia

Danny Santana

Ervin Santana (difficult contract to sell)

Hughes (extremely difficult contract to sell)

Rosario

Abad

 

 

Hold

 

Buxton

Kepler

Berrios

May

Duffey

Polanco

Chargois

Sano

Mauer (no way he's moved)

 

 

 

 

 

[Loosey]

 

The several years away comments don't really make a lot of sense to me. Next year's team should have Sano at 3rd and maybe Max Kepler playing in a corner OF spot, with a full year from Buxton and Berrios. 

 

I might be being too optimistic, but reading comments that say that a team is still years away always annoys me.

I agree.  In fact I think if the front office and Molitor can get on the same page and make the correct decisions on players this year, I think they could be a very fun to watch 2nd half team.  I'm not saying they are even going to sniff the playoffs, but .500 baseball from July-September would be pretty fun if the right guys are contributing to that.  That could lead into next year being a big upswing year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Just as I feel last year was luck driven, I feel this team is not this bad.....not even bottom 7 in talent. Maybe not bottom 10 when Sano is at 3B and Buxton is up and acceptable on offense.

 

So, I do think that a move here and there, and a full year of Berrios (year 2) and some RP help can make this a legit contender.

Our run differential is right in line with our record, and is second worse in baseball. This isn't bad luck.

 

I'm sorry, the talent we thought was there simply doesn't exist.

[Mr. Brooks]

Just as I feel last year was luck driven, I feel this team is not this bad.....not even bottom 7 in talent. Maybe not bottom 10 when Sano is at 3B and Buxton is up and acceptable on offense.

 

So, I do think that a move here and there, and a full year of Berrios (year 2) and some RP help can make this a legit contender.

This team will finish with about 55 wins.

Buxton, Berrios and a couple tweaks aren't going to add 35 wins.

[bluechipper]

 

This team will finish with about 55 wins.
Buxton, Berrios and a couple tweaks aren't going to add 35 wins.

I don't think it works like that...

[laloesch]

 

This team will finish with about 55 wins.
Buxton, Berrios and a couple tweaks aren't going to add 35 wins.

 

 

Wouldn't surprise me.  i think your right on the money, unless some major roster decisions are made and trades happen.  

 

Too me outside of the putrid offense the starting pitching aside from Berrios has collapsed in on itself like a blackhole.

 

 

[mazeville]

If I were the Twins I would look into trading anyone that could bring back value. It starts with Plouffe. Yes, the Twins should look into trading Gibson -- assuming he comes back and improves -- as well as Nolasco if he can keep his ERA down.

 

Here are some other names:

 

Brian Dozier. Absolutely the team should look to move Brian Dozier. Assuming he picks up the average a bit, he has some value left and plays good up-the-middle defense.

 

Oswaldo Arcia or Byung Ho Park. I hate the idea of trading either of these guys. But I'm hopeful that Arcia has rebuilt some value. And Park could definitely bring something in return. Whoever doesn't get traded should be the everyday DH.

 

I'm not saying all of these guys should be traded. But the team should definitely look at trading as many of these players as possible.

 

The issue, of course, is that this front office isn't big on fire sales. It gets married to current players and likes signing guys to ridiculous extensions. But, when they DO pull off trades, they usually do a good job of it. So I trust them to make trades. But I don't trust that they will actually do it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Absolutely agree.  As a financial analyst by trade, I sometimes wonder if the team has an FPA function within the organization.  I assume they have accountants on staff, but it seems they do not have anyone who thinks of the players as more of an investment in the business. 

 

Your example of cutting a $14M pitcher is a perfect example.  Right now that is what the team has and essentially is a sunk cost.  As the roster is currently constructed the team will bring in on average say 15,000 fans per game at $50 per ticket (assumptions).  Add in another $25 per person in concession costs and that is $1.125M in revenue per game * 60 remaining home games = $67,500,000 ( again this is just assumptions and most likely very low assumption).

 

Now lets say you trade said pitcher and have to eat his entire contract but get a AA prospect.  In turn New shiny rookie pitching prospect who costs $500k is now in his spot.  However, as you mentioned it shows the fan base that you are actively trying to improve the team and setting up the future.

 

Now by doing this there are factors that can affect this analysis but lets say new rookie pitcher is exciting and lights out.  The team starts to win a few games here and there and now butts are in the seats to see the future.  Now you average 20,000 fans per game.  You just upped your projected revenue from $67,500,000 to $90,000,000 ($22.5M) by increasing your attendance 5000 fans per game.  And all it cost you was $500K roster spot.

 

I assume the Twins have an FPA group that does this but is it used by by the baseball operations guys to make roster decisions that may help boost revenue and performance on the field.

 

The real answer to this question is quantifying just how many more butts in seats that rookie provides, not to mention the possible drop in last minute sales when fans realize the team is waiving the white flag.  I'm guessing not much, if any at all.  It would be an interesting study though.  Attendance records are kept for a while and one could try and correlate them pre and post white flag trades. That sounds like a job for Jack's department... not exactly analytics on the field, but it is analytics at the ticketing office.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Why are we talking about selling Park?  He's pretty good and would part of the turn around.  Only way you sell on him is if the team isn't going to contend the next 3 years of his contract and if the Twins have seen enough to know that MLB will figure him out eventually.  I don't care what offer would be on the table for him.  Not sure I'd take it the way he's hitting right now.

[Thrylos]

 

Why are we talking about selling Park?  He's pretty good and would part of the turn around.  Only way you sell on him is if the team isn't going to contend the next 3 years of his contract and if the Twins have seen enough to know that MLB will figure him out eventually.  I don't care what offer would be on the table for him.  Not sure I'd take it the way he's hitting right now.

 

Not to mention that his glove at first is above average and better than Mauer's, and the Twins do not have any  first basemen knocking on the door...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This team will finish with about 55 wins.
Buxton, Berrios and a couple tweaks aren't going to add 35 wins.

 

I don't think anyone is saying it's all on Buxton/Berrios.  Yes, those two would play key roles, as would Arcia, Polanco, Sano, Duffey, May, Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, Kepler, and Walker.  Not exactly tweaks, but all of these guys could be above average contributors at their positions in very short order. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think anyone is saying it's all on Buxton/Berrios. Yes, those two would play key roles, as would Arcia, Polanco, Sano, Duffey, May, Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, Kepler, and Walker. Not exactly tweaks, but all of these guys could be above average contributors at their positions in very short order.

Yes, of course many of those guys will eventually contribute.

But, a few things.

You list 4 guys for 2 corner of spots.

Mauer isn't going anywhere, and my suggestion to consider trading Park has not been met with enthusiasm.

You also have to factor that some of those guys will be busts, and some will be injured.

 

Also on that list is only 1 starting pitcher.

I think we've seen that May will never start for this club again.

If he can't get another shot on a 8-25 team with 3 starters out of the rotation, then he never will.

This team has a ceiling of .500 as long as Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco are in the rotation.

We've also seen Meyer will never get a legit shot at the mlb rotation.

That means we are stuck with a mediocre at best rotation for several years yet.

It's also a roster constructed with absolutely no regard for defense, and I don't see that changing much until we get a new philosophy in here.

[Oxtung]

The real answer to this question is quantifying just how many more butts in seats that rookie provides, not to mention the possible drop in last minute sales when fans realize the team is waiving the white flag. I'm guessing not much, if any at all. It would be an interesting study though. Attendance records are kept for a while and one could try and correlate them pre and post white flag trades. That sounds like a job for Jack's department... not exactly analytics on the field, but it is analytics at the ticketing office.

I agree. The commenters on this site are in the minority. We are uber fans that like watching the minor leagues to see what is on the horizon but when i talk to my friends that are casual fans, they are not interested in the up and coming players in the slightest. All they care about is the big names, Mauer, Santana, Dozier, Plouffe. I will say they know about Sano but that's because he was beyond awesome last year and we certainly can't count on that from anyone, rookie or veteran.

 

My guess is attendance might not drop, most casual fans already don't care enough to go to games when they are this bad, but the numbers won't get better either. It would be an interesting study though from an analytical perspective.

[Boom Boom]

Plouffe, Dozier, Nolasco, Suzuki, Jepsen. Rosario or Arcia. I would trade Perkins as well, but he's always hurt, and he's one of us so I don't see that happening.

 

Not to brag, but over the offseason I started a thread asking if the Twins should trade Gibson. I was largely met with eye rolls and guffaws.

[Major League Ready]

 

Absolutely agree.  As a financial analyst by trade, I sometimes wonder if the team has an FPA function within the organization.  I assume they have accountants on staff, but it seems they do not have anyone who thinks of the players as more of an investment in the business. 

 

Your example of cutting a $14M pitcher is a perfect example.  Right now that is what the team has and essentially is a sunk cost.  As the roster is currently constructed the team will bring in on average say 15,000 fans per game at $50 per ticket (assumptions).  Add in another $25 per person in concession costs and that is $1.125M in revenue per game * 60 remaining home games = $67,500,000 ( again this is just assumptions and most likely very low assumption).

 

Now lets say you trade said pitcher and have to eat his entire contract but get a AA prospect.  In turn New shiny rookie pitching prospect who costs $500k is now in his spot.  However, as you mentioned it shows the fan base that you are actively trying to improve the team and setting up the future.

 

Now by doing this there are factors that can affect this analysis but lets say new rookie pitcher is exciting and lights out.  The team starts to win a few games here and there and now butts are in the seats to see the future.  Now you average 20,000 fans per game.  You just upped your projected revenue from $67,500,000 to $90,000,000 ($22.5M) by increasing your attendance 5000 fans per game.  And all it cost you was $500K roster spot.

 

I assume the Twins have an FPA group that does this but is it used by by the baseball operations guys to make roster decisions that may help boost revenue and performance on the field.

 

 

If you are a Financial Analyst by trade, you know that the relative value of this type of calculation is a product of the assumptions.  Assumptions should be judged by the relative degree of certainty or variance.  In this case, you assumptions are highly suspect. 

 

For starters, the rookie replacement player would have to be historically good to increase attendance in any given game by 5,000.  Even if that happened, said replacement pitcher would only start   a dozen games at home so your calculation of increasing attendance by 300,000 is off by 5X even if the replacement pitcher is historically good.  Of course, those odds are very low. 

 

You also assumed this increase was immediate.  That is not at all realistic.  It would take time for this mythical rookie to generate anywhere near that level of interest.  You have also assumed with absolute certainty (by way of your calculation) that there is no chance whoever you are replacing can’t turn it around or that the rookie is with certainty much better.

 

So, from a business perspective, I would say that the odds generating any additional revenue is probably moderate and the odds of generating the type of revenue increase you have projected are extremely low.

[laloesch]

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Nolasco, Suzuki, Jepsen. Rosario or Arcia. I would trade Perkins as well, but he's always hurt, and he's one of us so I don't see that happening.

Not to brag, but over the offseason I started a thread asking if the Twins should trade Gibson. I was largely met with eye rolls and guffaws.

 

"he's one of us"

 

Haha classic.