Breaking Down the Roster Construction

[Brandon Warne]

I'm not really looking forward to the savage beating that I'll get in the comments, but I don't write things for nobody to read them either I guess.

 

Here's 4,000 words from me on the current state of the Twins. Be gentle.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/minnesota-twins/breaking-twins-roster-construction/

[Rosterman]

It is tough being a general manager. You do have a budget and you weigh the costs of keeping a player, signing a player for a long-term contract, and what happens when you do make mistakes and how many mistakes can the organization absorb each season...that is essentially letting go of guys like Fien and Milone, and also having fellows on the DL for extended time (Perkins).

 

Sometimes you make shrewd signings,like you did for Span, and able to flip him for some pitching (which hasn't panned out yet). You could say that Dozier is in a similar boat, decent contract that another team would like. Perkins was a very valuable commodity before the All-Star break last year. But it is a challenge to move players like that when you don't know what you have coming up.

 

Do you get rid of the slugging of Dozier for the speed of Polanco? Do you make May (or Meyer) a closer, but what is THAT timeline. Closers always don't become closers overnite.

 

And STOP making players play out of position. If you want them to be an outfielder, make them an outfielder. If you want them at second, do so. But have a plan and a reason and start them there in the minors.

 

Yes, you can always find a bullpen guy on the slush pile. There are only so many jobs. Or you can do the Twins syet and find 3 or 4 and rotate them in and then out in that LAST bullpen spot, maybe one of them developing into a multi-year bargain. But don't get all happy about doing that and making that a big moment in your life. Every team does that, I'm sorry.

 

The main issues right now is development of play vs. being competitive in the big leagues. You have no idea how a minor league guy will play, and then adapt as the league adapts with them. Period. It is very tough to predict both. The Twins did shine a bit last year, but because of weaknesses by other teams in the division, they placed better than they really did (that brilliant March).

 

Line up construction, bench construction, coaches that will work with your plans. And patience. Yes, we had four losing seasons of patience as the Twins tried to fill the minors with the future. We might just have to wait longer. Anyone think it was 2016? Most saw rebuilding still happening in 2017. 2018 would be the big push year. It still can be!

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Nice article.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I enjoyed the read. The only thing I disagree with is your thoughts on Dozier. He is currently and has been about average 2B in the league IMHO. He is trending in the wrong direction and I believe that the sample size of his failure is larger than of his success. Looking at his failures this year is legit, but yes its only a month. If you add this months failures to the failure of the second half of last year it is a big sample size of failure. If you use all of last year and this first month, he is about average to slightly bellow average overall for 2B. If you use this first month, all of last year, and the second half of two seasons ago all you have is one stretch of success and then surround by failure. 

 

His defense has been declining and is currently bellow average and probably not going to get any better. The "HOW" he was having success was pull power and "just enough" homers, although the walks are legit and positive. The pull power is not helping with him not striking the ball well and likely a continuing to dealing power/exit velocity as he ages. Those "just enough" homers then become some doubles, but mostly outs. He might still be an average 2B for a while with that profile, but we have to stop viewing him for his two good halves and consider "how" he was succeeding. He could be streaky good from time to time yet, but my bet is that he will be streaky bad more often than he will be streaky good.

 

**He actually is one of my favorite Twins players, but just believe he is completely overrated by homers, both now and in the past. I like him, but now think we have missed our chance to get anything from him and will be stuck with a declining player who will be blocking others that might be ready. But, we certainly have bigger concerns at the moment and near future.

[Mr. Brooks]

You say that even though Kepler at 75% of his max potential might be better than 100% of Rosario, the Twins owe it to Kepler to get him as close to 100% as possible before putting him in the lineup.

 

I'm not sure I buy that.

There is no reason whatsoever that he can't make that final progress in the mlb. A players development doesn't instantly stop the moment they put on a major league uniform.

[Thrylos]

"Construction" is too generous of a word for this.  It implies thought process...

 

These guys are taking names off a hat and throwing them until a couple stick,...

[Brandon Warne]

 

You say that even though Kepler at 75% of his max potential might be better than 100% of Rosario, the Twins owe it to Kepler to get him as close to 100% as possible before putting him in the lineup.

I'm not sure I buy that.
There is no reason whatsoever that he can't make that final progress in the mlb. A players development doesn't instantly stop the moment they put on a major league uniform.

 

Sure, but this is a guy that was never as close to as good as he was in Double-A anywhere else before that. I'd be worried about pushing him too quickly, especially since he's going to be pretty toolsy. He should be able to help this team sooner rather than later, I think.

[jimmer]

Not sure how this team is physically more talented than last year's team.  For most of the year, it's been practically the same team with the exception of Hunter out and Park in.  Rotation has been mostly the same, the bullpen is mostly the same.  

 

Many fans (and apparently team ownership/management looked at this team based on Jim Pohlad's recent comments), saw we had 83 wins last year, figured the kids would be better and predicted even more wins. Sounds like they didn't even bother to look deeper to how this team really performed, seeming disregarding advantageous sequencing. Apparently didn't consider other teams actually went out and tried to improve while they mostly sat on their hands.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Not sure how this team is physically more talented than last year's team.  For most of the year, it's been practically the same team with the exception of Hunter out and Park in.  Rotation has been mostly the same, the bullpen is mostly the same.

 

You just said it. Basically the same team. 

 

Adding Park over Hunter is big.

Adding Abad over Duensing is big.

Going with Pressly over Boyer is pretty big. 

 

That's a more talented team on the surface.

 

But honestly, I've said in a few places this can be a "better" team and still win fewer games. At this point, however, that point doesn't stand. 

[jimmer]

You just said it. Basically the same team. 

 

Adding Park over Hunter is big.

Adding Abad over Duensing is big.

Going with Pressly over Boyer is pretty big. 

 

That's a more talented team on the surface.

 

But honestly, I've said in a few places this can be a "better" team and still win fewer games. At this point, however, that point doesn't stand. 

The first one, offensively, is big; however, defensively, that big difference gets quite a bit smaller.

Pressly was with us last year (and for years before), but his role has been extended and results have been shaky.

Abad has been very good so far for sure.

[MindFreak]

Very solid article. 

[Winston Smith]

 

I enjoyed the read. The only thing I disagree with is your thoughts on Dozier. He is currently and has been about average 2B in the league IMHO. He is trending in the wrong direction and I believe that the sample size of his failure is larger than of his success. Looking at his failures this year is legit, but yes its only a month. If you add this months failures to the failure of the second half of last year it is a big sample size of failure. If you use all of last year and this first month, he is about average to slightly bellow average overall for 2B. If you use this first month, all of last year, and the second half of two seasons ago all you have is one stretch of success and then surround by failure. 

 

His defense has been declining and is currently bellow average and probably not going to get any better. The "HOW" he was having success was pull power and "just enough" homers, although the walks are legit and positive. The pull power is not helping with him not striking the ball well and likely a continuing to dealing power/exit velocity as he ages. Those "just enough" homers then become some doubles, but mostly outs. He might still be an average 2B for a while with that profile, but we have to stop viewing him for his two good halves and consider "how" he was succeeding. He could be streaky good from time to time yet, but my bet is that he will be streaky bad more often than he will be streaky good.

 

**He actually is one of my favorite Twins players, but just believe he is completely overrated by homers, both now and in the past. I like him, but now think we have missed our chance to get anything from him and will be stuck with a declining player who will be blocking others that might be ready. But, we certainly have bigger concerns at the moment and near future.

Heard a lot of people commenting on him getting hot in Houston because he had 6 hits. 3 of  those hits didn't leave the infield, one just made it over the SS head and the homer likely was a fly ball out in nearly any other park. Was he really hitting better or did he just run into a little luck?

[diehardtwinsfan]

very well written article.  Explains a lot about what's going on.  I have to think they trade Plouffe sooner than later.  That really does open things up a bit.  You might see the Rochester shuttle working back and forth sending Walker, Kepler, and Rosario up to see who finally sticks, but that's fine.  I think the most concerning thing thus far that is going to be tougher to fix is what to do with Dozier.  He's not hitting well.  Not sure if he has options or not (and then there's whole contract thing), but I think he could use either some DL time or some AAA time to straighten out a bit.  Let Polanco get a few at bats up here in the mean time. 

[DocBauer]

Brandon, a really great article. Thoughtfull, direct, and I believe accurate. Well done! And thank you for an honest and "step back" perspective. While I hope I don't end up repeating you too much, I have some points I'd like to add.

 

1} It's simply way too late, and meaningress really, to play GM in a revisionist role. But since you brought up the points, I feel compelled to do so. I am NOT going to play the bash TR game. However, IMO, he has blown the CF situation for 3 years, and the bullpen for 2. I have stated before, and you pretty much said the same thing, that the otherwise conservative Ryan was gambling on prospects being ready.

 

Hicks wasnt, and Buxton wasnt. The young, power armed RP weren't and still aren't quite. But instead of providing alternatives, we are stuck where we are now. It seemed OBVIOUS to me that what the Twins needed was a veteran RH OF to play both corners, a possible 4th OF/CF option to delay Buxton, and a couple of quality RP.

And yet, none of these moves took place. There WERE options for these spots that would not have cost a fortune...some of them may have been along the lines of make good contracts...but they were out there. Cleveland has 2of them alone in Davis and Byrd. How much better are our options now if we have them, or someone like them, to platoon with Arcia and even allow Rosario to go down and find himself? And again, I simply can't believe...though I agree with avoiding 3 year contracts...that a couple quality, experienced RP couldn't be moved at some point to a team in need later this season when any youngsters proved ready.

 

2} Plouffe should have been moved. I like Plouffe. I still do. But Sano is the future, should be at 3B, and we are only delaying his overall value, and positive roster construction by forcing him to the OF. Even with questions about Park's ability to fit in right away, there were enough options available that moving Plouffe in some sort of deal should have taken place.

 

3} I absolutely agree about giving Buxton and Kepler time. (Reference point number 1) The hype, hope, talent and potential for both is tremendous. But as you pointed out, Buxton has so few games and AB above A ball to almost be scary. And despite all of Kepler's tools and potential, he was very raw, is just coming in to his own, and it is very short-sighted, perhaps irresponsible to just want to promote them and play "sink or swim.

 

4} As disappointing as this season has turned out to be, as much as we want all of these tremendous young talents to succeed, there is a learning curve attached. And promoting them too soon, or promoting them and sitting them on the bench, is not the answer. The problem is not having some sort of viable option at the ML level to better allow this.

 

Polanco is another name you bring up. I think there are still question marks what to do with him, where he fits in best. And I'm not sure I have a proper resolution. But there has to be a plan in place here at some point. He is just way too young, way too talented, has way too much talent to just be yo-yo'ed around the way he has been.

[DocBauer]

very well written article.  Explains a lot about what's going on.  I have to think they trade Plouffe sooner than later.  That really does open things up a bit.  You might see the Rochester shuttle working back and forth sending Walker, Kepler, and Rosario up to see who finally sticks, but that's fine.  I think the most concerning thing thus far that is going to be tougher to fix is what to do with Dozier.  He's not hitting well.  Not sure if he has options or not (and then there's whole contract thing), but I think he could use either some DL time or some AAA time to straighten out a bit.  Let Polanco get a few at bats up here in the mean time.

 

I'm a huge fan of Dozier. And I'd hate to see such a good and productive player lost to my team. (I say this in spite of his struggles this season) But if we look at roster construction the rest of this year, and going forward, it may simply be a better fit for Polanco to take his spot. Sano plays 3B. Escobar holds down SS. We have 1B and DH set, it seems, for the foreseeable future. Eventually, Buxton and Kepler should be 2/3 of the OF, with Arcia, Rosario and Walker strong factors. Palka? Maybe. Santana? Maybe?

 

Maybe it's just me, but it seems there is a path here that seems kind of obvious.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Nice article and very well thought out. We will finally see if Polanco can get hot while He gets some time at SS. If he shows us that he can make contact I think we've found Dozier's replacement. The issue I have with the construction is there are a lot of hit and miss type hitters and they play average defense at best. Finding a few more guys to set the table that play above average defense. Hopefully Polanco is one of those players. I agree Sano belongs at third for now meaning we need to expedite the trades of Dozier and Plouffe. Our catching situation is abysmal. We need to find a long term solution here and overpay If we must. Maybe a package of these two (Dozier and Plouffe) and an additional young prospect could net us one. I agree that the outfield has the potential to be good if Buxton can become what we all hope. A solid veteran would have been a nice pickup this off-season but it wasn't addressed. I would like to see us use a starting rotation of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes. I say Hughes with reservation but would pray that he gets hot and we unload him to someone as soon as possible. I would like to see more of Meyer over a long period where he gets the ball and knows he won't be sent down. We have mishandled this one. I believe that our young guys in the minors will provide 2 or 3 quality arms. Just not this year but still, I have hope there. Last, May needs a shot as the closer. He is being wasted in his role. Closer or let him have a crack at starting again. We aren't going to win this year so lets see what the young guys can do. There you go my opinion and again, congrats on a great article.

[beckmt]

Value takes time to happen or injuries to occur on pennant condending ballclubs.  That is when you lose a player for most of the rest of the year and feel you must make a deal to make the playoffs.  Hopefully both Plouffe and Dozier will be traded at that point, along with Nolasco, and Gibson.  Hughes could well be untradeable and santana will be too valueable going forward, though I would trade Santana if I felt the deal was right.