Article: JR Murphy And Bad Timing

[savvyspy]

This would be a disappointing development had the FO managed the roster better going into the year. Now that they are a complete dumpster fire, just let them play through it. Murphy's history shows he is better than this. They don't have catching options anywhere in the system so its not like having him work through his issues at the major league level is hindering his development.

[Danchat]

 

Is it too late to see if Mauer can catch part time?I mean if he's only doing it 20-30% of the games, it should help him stay healthy right?I'm being serious.

[USAFChief]

"Patience with JRM. As Seth said, he's hit at every stage of his career."

 

.733 career minor league OPS.  That's not "hitting at every stage of his career."

 

That's "not being terrible, but not showing the kind of bat that often translates to major league success."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"Patience with JRM. As Seth said, he's hit at every stage of his career."

 

.733 career minor league OPS.  That's not "hitting at every stage of his career."

 

That's "not being terrible, but not showing the kind of bat that often translates to major league success."

It's a little more nuanced than that, but you are probably on to something.  Chris Herrmann has a career .736 minor league OPS, obviously a little older as a college draftee, but that age-adjusting performance is a very different argument than "hit at every stage of his career."  (And Murphy's first plus performance at AA came at age 22, versus age 23 for Herrmann, so it's not like their timelines were way off throughout.)

 

Murphy's minor league success as a plus hitter is primarily limited to 2013, when he posted a 116 wRC+ split between AA and AAA.  His MLB success with the Yankees seemed to support that, although there were some K% and BABIP issues.

[dxpavelka]

If his BABIP was at the other end of the spectrum (See, Santana, Danny, 2014) I'd be inundated with posts on here about how he would be a candidate for a huge regression to the mean.  Should not the same apply in the opposite direction in this situation?   Of course a wise man once said that advanced metrics are a wonderful tool--for predicting the past.

[jimbo92107]

 

There's nothing in Murphy's track record to indicate that he is really THIS bad. He's always hit, at every level, to at least a league-average type of production. No reason to believe that he can't do that here.  Maybe you're right... playing him MORE might be exactly what he needs. 

And let him use Joe Mauer's goggles.

[Rosterman]

Let's see. I was hoping the Twins would break camp with Hicks as the backup and have Murphy work thru his issues starting regularly at AAA. That didn't happen, and for some reason the Twins felt they should waive Hicks rather than, say, Pat Dean, who is behind Rogers in the AAA lefty pecking order and if push came to shove, even behind non-roster Logan Darnell.

 

They didn't.

 

There is hope that throwing Murphy out there more regularly will make him a better catcher. But a catcher learning new pitchers as well as struggling with his bat, is struggling, period. You want the defense to shine. But it is cloudly behind-the-plate for Murphy.

 

There is the hope that Murpjhy will pull togetehr and shine defensively. And the offense will come. And that the Twins will flip Suzuki so they can promote some otehr talent for the moment, or even give a prospect time if they decide to go into total rebuild mode.

 

Of course, we could bring back the .429 hitting Drew Butera!

 

Someone has to make outs in the lineup every game. So someone going 0-3 is no worse than having your pitcher bat in the Natiuonal League.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

When Suzuki made the 2014 All Star game, who would have thought he would be our primary catcher through the end of 2017? It's looking more and more likely.

I think most posters on here were actually pleading for Ryan to trade him at that time.

If we had traded him in 2014, who would have caught?

[Shane Wahl]

It was an obvious mistake to make that trade. He is not a major league player. End of story.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I agree with those who say Murphy has to be given a chance to perform. He is only 24 and he rode the bench in NY or was shuttled back and forth to the minors for 3 years. He has just over 300 major league plate appearances, that is all.

 

Defensively, I wouldn't mind if someone reported on scouting reports. I was able to find two quotes from a year ago when he was a Yankee:

 

"He appeared adept defensively which made up for any of his offensive shortcomings. As a reserve catcher, that’s about all one can ask for."

        Pinstripepundits.com

 

and

 

" ... He's better defensively, with a plus arm and at least average defensive skills. Some scouts still see some aspects of defense for him to work on, but indications from the analytical folks are that he’s an above average framer, so if that holds up and he reaches his offensive upside, there could be an everyday catcher here."

        Fangraphs.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

If his BABIP was at the other end of the spectrum (See, Santana, Danny, 2014) I'd be inundated with posts on here about how he would be a candidate for a huge regression to the mean.  Should not the same apply in the opposite direction in this situation?   Of course a wise man once said that advanced metrics are a wonderful tool--for predicting the past.

I thought the same thing, but I think it's because of the dreaded SSS, apparently he has hit the ball weakly.

 

But overall, BABIP doesn't seem as scientific as some other stats. It's a measurement, pure and simple; make of it what you will.

[Mr. Brooks]

If we had traded him in 2014, who would have caught?

Does it really matter? The Twins were never going to contend for anything during Suzukis tenure here.

If you could have gotten some potential pieces for him that might contribute to the next playoff team you do it and worry about who plays catcher later.

This one foot in, one foot out rebuild drives me crazy.

Perkins absolutely should have been traded at peak value, as should have Willingham, Suzuki, Hughes and probably Dozier.

[Darius]

Funny, all of those justifying this by saying Hicks isn't hitting for the Yanks either (or wasn't when healthy) seem to like to love to leave defense and base running out of the equation.

 

It's not Hicks bat they're missing at this point (even though his bat offers loads more upside than Murphy's, IMO). But, he sure would be a big help in CF/RF right now. Murphy seems to a bad defensive catcher, when this team was desperate for an average one.

[TheLeviathan]

It was an obvious mistake to make that trade. He is not a major league player. End of story.

It's not a mistake if you gambled another bad player to get him. I'd like to see him get a good, long run as the starter this year to see what we have. We know Hicks is awful, let's see if we can still win this deal.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If we had traded him in 2014, who would have caught?

Anyone?

 

I think Pinto and Herrmann were the logical choices at the time.