Over-Managing

[Loosey]

Whoo boy!  0-6 start to the season, yet the Twins were in all but one game.  A combination of blown leads, terrible situational hitting and over managing has led the Twins astray in their first six games of the season. 

 

The bullpen blowing leads and crazy amount of strikeouts are obvious things to notice early in the season but something I have seen (even going back to last year) is a tendency to over-manage in late game situations.

 

Over-managing situation #1:  Friday night the Twins were up by one going into the bottom of the 8th inning when Molitor brought in Rosario as a defensive replacement when Sano would be up 4th in the 9th inning if the Royals were to tie or take the lead.  Sure enough the Royals took the lead.  In the 9th Mauer got on and Rosario batted for Sano and struck out on what seemed like 2 pitches.

 

Over-managing situation #2:  Thursday against Baltimore, Sano again.  Sano singles in the top of the 8th and is immediately ran for by Nunez.  Nunez is immediately caught stealing to end the inning.  And Sano is now on the bench the rest of the game in which he was DHing.

 

Over-managing situation #3:  Sunday.  And I don't know if this is over managing as much as it is just not what I would do.  Again in the 10th with one out Nunez gets hit by pitch.  Then immediately once he is on 1st base is caught stealing 2nd.  Now we have 2 outs nobody on.  To make matters worse this was an opportunity for a challenge and Molitor chose not to use it when the odds of having to use one later would be minimal (I wish he would use this mentality for pinch runners).  But Murph proceeds to pop out to end the inning then as we all know the Royals go on to win in the bottom.

 

Maybe it's just me and my frustrations, but some of the decisions have been questionable to say the least.

[sane16]

Please explain the difference between:

1)blowing a lead

and

2)the opposing team coming back from behind.

 

THEN

Please explain the difference between:

1) Coming back from behind,

and

2) the opposing team blowing a lead.

[ThejacKmp]

I dunno, the first two are eminently defensible. You're holding a lead so getting a better defender out there is ideal. Nunez is a better runner than Sano in a situation late in a game where a run is really important - I'm fine with it.

 

I can see the issue with sending Nunez against Perez. I don't mind aggressive baseball but I get thinking that isn't an ideal time for a steal.

[Loosey]

Blowing leads/opposing teams coming back from behind is not the point of my post.  Those are always possibilities.  Molitor has over-managed in some of those situations and not given the team the optimal players to make a comeback of their own if those happen, and has wasted the bench players use as well.

[Mike Sixel]

I hate pinch running for a guy on first with 2 outs. hate it. 100% hate it. Especially if it is your "best" hitter. hate it.

[alarp33]

I agree totally with the overmanaging.  I'm trying to recall other situations... was it Friday that they called for a hit and run with Escobar on 1st and one of the worst contact hitters in baseball (Rosario) at the plate?

[Willihammer]

There is a heck of a lot of squaring to bunt by Santana, Nunez, Buxton, etc. Did I see Plouffe square around? Him or Park did too. There's an adage that you can bunt yourself out of a slump, but its definitely not working and in Nunez case he wasn't even in a slump (he was 4/4 before the bunt attempt / HBP).

[parrothead]

Paul Molitor is a Hall Of Famer, how many other managers can say that or played as long as he did? 

Monitor knows that it is a marathon and not a race, he won 20+ more games in his first season and he knows that there will be many 5-6 game swings throughout the year. It will be all good!

[alarp33]

 

Paul Molitor is a Hall Of Famer, how many other managers can say that or played as long as he did? 

Monitor knows that it is a marathon and not a race, he won 20+ more games in his first season and he knows that there will be many 5-6 game swings throughout the year. It will be all good!

 

Molitor being a Hall of Fame player has no correlation with his ability to manage. 

[Loosey]

I think being a HOF player is part of it.  He is always thinking and trying to get an edge.  It's just sometimes over-thinking things causes issues (trust me, I try not think whenever possible).  Just let the game come to you and adjust.  He tries to change the game through managing.  He is in the moment it seems, and needs to think of what if scenario's.  What if they come back and my "best" hitter is now unavailable.

[USAFChief]

I don't like taking out your best  hitters late in games that are close.  I would live with the chance Sano costs you defensively for the chance his bat will matter.  I agree that's overmanaging.

 

Caught stealings might or might not be.  I might be more inclined to call that bad managing than overmanaging, or possibly just the cost of trying to stay aggressive.

 

IMO the biggest example of overmanaging is seeing Santana have 2 hits one day, then being a lineup fixture, in the two hole, for the next few.  What changed about your lineup, or about Santana, based on one day's ABs?  That's overmanaging, or perhaps panic.

 

 

[Minniman]

It begs the question, why are these guys getting the green light to steal bases?

 

It is not like they are trying to swipe an easy base or two from the Twins' catchers.

[alarp33]

 

 

IMO the biggest example of overmanaging is seeing Santana have 2 hits one day, then being a lineup fixture, in the two hole, for the next few.  What changed about your lineup, or about Santana, based on one day's ABs?  That's overmanaging, or perhaps panic.

 

Or to have Sano sit the 5th game of the season.... because as the beat reporter (LENIII) said "he's not hitting"

[sane16]

I hate pinch running for a guy on first with 2 outs. hate it. 100% hate it. Especially if it is your "best" hitter. hate it.

The "reasons" to pinch-run for a guy on first with 2 outs are:

1) Two outs is the textbook time to attempt stealing 2B to get him into scoring postion for a single...If it fails, you have lost on minimal scoring opportunity (man on first, two out).

and

2) If the hitter hits a gapper, the original runner may have been stopped at 3B for lack of speed, while hopefully the pinch runner can score the run.

[mickeymental]

when a team is averaging fewer than two runs per nine innings and has yet to score more than three in any game, over-managing -- even if a contributing factor -- seems like a minor concern.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The "reasons" to pinch-run for a guy on first with 2 outs are:
1) Two outs is the textbook time to attempt stealing 2B to get him into scoring postion for a single...If it fails, you have lost on minimal scoring opportunity (man on first, two out).
and
2) If the hitter hits a gapper, the original runner may have been stopped at 3B for lack of speed, while hopefully the pinch runner can score the run.

 

I understand why someone would do it, I don't agree it is optimal to take out your best hitter, to make a very unlikely scenario come true. YMMV, of course.

[Loosey]

 

The "reasons" to pinch-run for a guy on first with 2 outs are:
1) Two outs is the textbook time to attempt stealing 2B to get him into scoring postion for a single...If it fails, you have lost on minimal scoring opportunity (man on first, two out).
and
2) If the hitter hits a gapper, the original runner may have been stopped at 3B for lack of speed, while hopefully the pinch runner can score the run.

But Sano is supposed to be a very fast guy for his size and a great athlete.  That's why they said he can play RF.  But he can't run 3 bases?

[sane16]

I understand why someone would do it, I don't agree it is optimal to take out your best hitter, to make a very unlikely scenario come true. YMMV, of course.

My bad!

I thought that you wondered why, which I should not have thought, because I'm aware that you are very aware of the situational reasons.

And I agree, if your best hitter may bat again in the game, he shouldn't be removed for a pinch-runner.

[sane16]

But Sano is supposed to be a very fast guy for his size and a great athlete.  That's why they said he can play RF.  But he can't run 3 bases?

Key words are "for his size".

Smaller may be faster, especially on the left turns.

[nytwinsfan]

Good thing being a Hall of Famer is how you know a manager is good at his job.

 

Paul Molitor is a Hall Of Famer, how many other managers can say that or played as long as he did? 

Monitor knows that it is a marathon and not a race, he won 20+ more games in his first season and he knows that there will be many 5-6 game swings throughout the year. It will be all good!

 

[gocgo]

Baseball is a game where a tenth of a second is an eternity.  The difference between being safe and being out can be a measured in a hundreth of a second.  Getting the winning run in could be the difference between Nunez and Sano.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Baseball is a game where a tenth of a second is an eternity. The difference between being safe and being out can be a measured in a hundreth of a second. Getting the winning run in could be the difference between Nunez and Sano.

But even more than that, baseball is a game of probability. Is it more likely you'll need that fraction of a second or is it more likely you'll need your best hitter at the plate later in the game?

 

Obviously, those percentages can and will change based on in-game circumstances but that should be the deciding factor.

[gocgo]

 

But even more than that, baseball is a game of probability. Is it more likely you'll need that fraction of a second or is it more likely you'll need your best hitter at the plate later in the game?

Obviously, those percentages can and will change based on in-game circumstances but that should be the deciding factor.

and that is why Molly gets paid the big bucks and we get to watch.

[gocgo]

Is this a must win game?

[gocgo]

Also, is there a reason that Tom Hammond can't pronounce Byung Ho Park's name?  It's not Beeeeyung, is it?

[SwainZag]

It's easy to call it over managing when no one has come in the clutch yet this season.  When every decision has gone against Molly, it's easy to call him out for it.  The hitting with RISP has been so terrible that any decision has been a bad one.

 

Situation 1.  Rosario is a much better defender than Sano is.  With a lead IMO, it's the right play.  Yes, Rosario struck out.  But before that Mauer and Santana couldn't get him in from 2nd base.  If the bullpen doesn't blow a 2 run lead OR Santana or Mauer gets a hit it doesn't matter.

 

Situation 2. It was the top of the 8th inning with 2 outs and the Twins were down a run.  Nunez is a better runner.  For Sano to make an impact in that game, the Twins would have to tie and go to extras, or would have to send 8 men to the plate in the 9th, which means they have already taken the lead.  I don't mind using a better runner on the base paths in case of a double.

 

Situation 3. I can't comment as who knows if he got a sign or if he has a green light.  I wouldn't have called for a straight steal, and if it was sure maybe it was over managing.  

 

In all 3 scenerios Molly was being aggressive and trying to either help to win or comeback and tie the game.  For a fan base that crushes the front office for being aggressive enough, these are the type of moves I don't mind the manager making......especially when you have the entire team hitting around .200.

[Mike Sixel]

Suzuki bunts down two..... Why is he even batting? Awful managing. Awful

[HitInAPinch]

Well, if your best hitter is swinging away at a rate of 50% strikeouts and the rest of the offense [ and, sometimes the defense, too ] is cold, I'd take a chance on pinch running for Sano, too. 

[Rosterman]

The secret is to score runs. The starters have, overall, kept the team in the game. You do have to move baserunners, not strand them by swinging.

 

If anything, is it time to work on line-up construction. Get Escobar that potentially fifth at bat rather than batting down in the order for now. Shake up the 3-4-5 spots some.

 

Are the Twins just swinging at too many ball fours. or is the other team actually throwing strikes?

[bluechipper]

 

Are the Twins just swinging at too many ball fours. or is the other team actually throwing strikes?

I'd say a combination of both (not a very good answer). The problem today was fouling off meatballs. Late in the game, Sano and I think Dozier too had a center cut fastball with a man on that was fouled straight back. When teams are going well, those pitches are hit hard.