Duffey v. Nolasco

[Seth Stohs]

A lot will potentially play out today. The Minnesota Twins have to soon decide on their 5th starter. It comes down to Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco.  Tyler Duffey starts today in Bradenton against the Pirates big league team. Ricky Nolasco will be starting on the minor league fields against an A ball team from the Orioles. Things are getting interesting.

 

LaVelle Neal wrote about it here: http://www.startribune.com/striving-for-perfection-has-been-duffey-s-way-with-twins/373685651/

 

We posted a poll on Twitter about this very topic. 

 

 

So, what do you think? Take the poll on Twitter if you would like.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think the fact that Duffey gets the MLB start says a lot about the decision making process. I think they feel like they know what they have in Nolasco, and want to gather more data on Duffey.

 

Duffey should be in AAA, with Nolasco getting the start here. Nolasco should be on a very short leash, if Berrios looks ready in AAA (which he will). Duffey should be the 2nd option from AAA, imo (or in the bullpen here in MN, as the long reliever).

[Vanimal46]

 

Duffey should be in AAA, with Nolasco getting the start here. Nolasco should be on a very short leash, if Berrios looks ready in AAA (which he will). Duffey should be the 2nd option from AAA, imo (or in the bullpen here in MN, as the long reliever).

Agree with you 100%. Though I am concerned that the fan's perceived leash for Nolasco is quite different than the FO's perceived leash. We're going to need results on either extreme of the spectrum... Where he's brilliant and the team recoups some value out of that contract, or he's brutal and hopefully that will be the final nail in the coffin. If he's Pelfrey-like, I won't know what to think.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the fact that Duffey gets the MLB start says a lot about the decision making process. I think they feel like they know what they have in Nolasco, and want to gather more data on Duffey.

Yes.  And I don't think they would let Nolasco lose the job on a minor league start.  Barring injury, I think he's got the MLB spot, Duffey will go to AAA, and Nolasco could have one more tune-up Friday vs. Washington.

 

Also of note, it's set up so that Nolasco will be the 4th starter, and Milone the 5th.  That's been the order since spring training began, so I sense that Nolasco always had a better chance at the spot than they were letting on in their comments about Duffey (who probably should have followed Milone given his limited MLB resume).

[nater79a]

Can't see Nolasco building up any trade value as a $12 million 'pen arm. I think he gets the rotation spot. Best case scenario is that he pitches lights-out and helps keep the Twins in contention. Medium case scenario is that Ricky pitches well enough to draw interest from other clubs. Worst case...well, sunk cost.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If Nolasco starts the season in the starting rotation, the Twins better be right about this and he better pitch consistently well.

[SweetOne69]

 

Also of note, it's set up so that Nolasco will be the 4th starter, and Milone the 5th.  That's been the order since spring training began, so I sense that Nolasco always had a better chance at the spot than they were letting on in their comments about Duffey (who probably should have followed Milone given his limited MLB resume).

 

With the off day between games 1 & 2, it would be easy to swap these 2 in the order once the season starts.

[Blackjack]

Even without Duffy and Nolasco starting today I think the decision has been made -- Nolasco in the rotation and Duffy to AAA -- simply because it makes it easier to keep one more reliever. 

 

Duffy has no one to blame but himself, the 5th starter position was his to lose -- and he lost it.

[dxpavelka]

Can't take the poll because I'm not on Twitter.  I'll sign up if you make Trevor may one of the choices.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With the off day between games 1 & 2, it would be easy to swap these 2 in the order once the season starts.

True, but do you think they will?  I bet Nolasco is the nominal "4th starter".

[DaveW]

Duffey vs Nolasco

 

That's like asking if I prefer steak over spam.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even without Duffy and Nolasco starting today I think the decision has been made -- Nolasco in the rotation and Duffy to AAA -- simply because it makes it easier to keep one more reliever. 

 

Duffy has no one to blame but himself, the 5th starter position was his to lose -- and he lost it.

I don't think it was truly Duffey's to lose, especially if you are including such apparently weak factors as "keeping one more reliever" from the uninspiring group of Tonkin, Kintzler, O'Rourke, etc.

 

Molitor said it would take something "fairly significant" for him not to be in the rotation, and while Duffey hasn't performed that great pending today's results, it's pretty clear that nothing "fairly significant" or unexpected has happened.  I think the talk of Duffey having a spot, for him to lose, was pretty much just lip-service, maybe to make him feel more comfortable, reward him for his 2015 contributions, and/or to motivate Nolasco and Milone.  They essentially kept May in the rotation hunt for the same purposes, it wouldn't be shocking if they did the same for Duffey one rung up the ladder.

[Old Twins Cap]

Duffey only has two pitches, though his curve ball comes in slightly different flavors.

 

Two pitches works for a while, especially in the bullpen, where, if you are Mariano Rivera, you only need one really good cut fastball.

 

As it is, if he wants to start, he should be in AAA working on a third pitch.  If not, why not put Duffey in the Pen and free May to be a starter with his four pitch arsenal?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also of note, it's set up so that Nolasco will be the 4th starter, and Milone the 5th.  That's been the order since spring training began, so I sense that Nolasco always had a better chance at the spot than they were letting on in their comments about Duffey (who probably should have followed Milone given his limited MLB resume).

Do they really plans things out that carefully, though? They definitely plan for Opening Day and the home opener but I can't imagine they spend much time thinking about who lines up #4 vs. #5, especially in early March.

[nater79a]

Solid first couple innings for Nolasco against Orioles' Class A Frederick. 20 pitches, one hit (double), 3 K's, 3 ground outs.

[nater79a]

Third inning for Ricky a tad shaky.

 

A walk that was erased on a caught stealing. Then a single, stolen base and an E-3 to score a run. 

 

21 pitch 3rd inning with one K.

[jimbo92107]

Duffey is a better pitcher than some people realize. He throws multiple types of curve ball, with excellent control of all of them. He's also got both a two-seam and four-seam fastball, though they're not as effective as his excellent curve. He's been working on improving his change-up, which I think accounts for the one time he got pounded this spring. 

 

It will be interesting to see what Duffey does today against the Pirates. No more tinkering with the change up. Today he needs to win a game. Back to his formula from last season - lots of curves. We could see a lot of silly looking whiffs today.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Do they really plans things out that carefully, though? They definitely plan for Opening Day and the home opener but I can't imagine they spend much time thinking about who lines up #4 vs. #5, especially in early March.

Well, they don't draw the names out of a hat.  There is obviously plenty of time to adjust, but I think they'd try to open with the rotation they expect barring some obvious factor like injury etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, they don't draw the names out of a hat.  There is obviously plenty of time to adjust, but I think they'd try to open with the rotation they expect barring some obvious factor like injury etc.

Sure, but it's also possible, maybe even likely, Nolasco was "more ready" to go in the first week of March so they just pencilled him in a day earlier than Duffey. I just don't see teams thinking that far ahead when guys are going 2-3 innings and barely getting warmed up.

[nater79a]

Nolasco with a 27-pitch 4th. 

 

Leadoff 2-bagger, fly to right, infield single (scores a run), fly to left, walk. 

 

Inning ended after 2 outs (pitch count?).

[nater79a]

Duffey against the Pirates in Bradenton.

 

Falls behind in a 3-1 count and gives up a solo shot to Matt Joyce.

[nater79a]

Nolasco in the 5th inning:

 

Strikeout swinging, triple to the gap in right, groundout (scores a run), fly to center. 

 

12 strikes in 16 pitches.

 

Nolasco done for the day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, but it's also possible, maybe even likely, Nolasco was "more ready" to go in the first week of March so they just pencilled him in a day earlier than Duffey. I just don't see teams thinking that far ahead when guys are going 2-3 innings and barely getting warmed up.

Absent something tangible (and one of two healthy pitchers being "more ready" at the start of March isn't tangible), I think they still line up these guys according to competitions and how they see them opening the season.  Starting pitchers are extreme creatures of habit, and they aren't going to want to mess with their schedules even in March without a good reason.

 

I posted earlier this spring that they basically lined them up to open Santana-Hughes/May-Gibson-Nolasco/Duffey-Milone.  That was no accident.  Probably the only way May was making the rotation was one of the top 3 being injured, as well as one of the last 3.  The only way Duffey was making it was if he excelled and/or Nolasco or Milone stunk up the joint.

[nater79a]

Duffey gets out of the 2nd inning unscathed. 3 ground outs.

[nater79a]

Ricky Nolasco's final line:

 

5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 Ks. 84 pitches, 55 strikes.

 

Threw an extra inning or so in the bullpen afterwards.

[SweetOne69]

 

True, but do you think they will?  I bet Nolasco is the nominal "4th starter".

 

Since the Twins' don't usually skip the #5 guy in the rotation to get the top guys more starts it doesn't really matter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Since the Twins' don't usually skip the #5 guy in the rotation to get the top guys more starts it doesn't really matter.

I didn't say it mattered in terms of skipping starts.  I said it mattered in calculating Nolasco's odds all along.

[nater79a]

Matt Joyce strikes again off Duffey. A double to drive in John Jaso who walked.

 

Tyler Duffey, 2 ER after 3 innings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Matt Joyce strikes again off Duffey. A double to drive in John Jaso who walked.

 

Tyler Duffey, 2 ER after 3 innings.

I kinda missed it, but didn't catcher Murphy kinda miss the tag on Jaso at the plate?

 

In any case, maybe Duffey makes the team as long as Joyce doesn't.

[Blackjack]

 

I don't think it was truly Duffey's to lose, especially if you are including such apparently weak factors as "keeping one more reliever" from the uninspiring group of Tonkin, Kintzler, O'Rourke, etc.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. If Duffy would have pitched like he did late last summer, in my opinion, he'd be in the rotation.  

 

As far as the 'uninspiring' group of relievers, Tonkin is out of options, freeing up another spot gives them the chance to kick the can down the road 6 weeks, gives Tonkin a true chance to succeed - or get cut. It gives the next group of relievers, starting with Burdi, a chance to compete, to prove with their performance "pick me, pick me".