Article: Player Projections: 1B Joe Mauer

[Ultima Ratio]

Anything less -- wait -- fewer than 28 HR will be disappointing. 

Edited March 22, 2016 by Ultima Ratio

[Dantes929]

 

If I can count spring homers to my 20 HR projection, he just hit one today which is 5% of my projection for the year.  Can I count Spring homeruns???

For his power numbers I think everyone would be happy with a combined 20 homers.   Even if he hits 4 more in the next couple weeks.

[Dantes929]

 

Yup. I have never understood how starting 0-1 all the time is a good strategy. Especially when the cookie he lets go by in the first pitch is often the most predictable and hittable pitch he will see.

That has been the knock on him even in his batting title days but there is science to it.    Back when they Mauer was beating Cuddyer and D. Young by 40-80 points the three of them had pretty even splits for the various counts.     They all mashed when ahead in the count.     There is only one way to get ahead in the count and that is by taking pitches.     Now I always thought he should swing at a few more just to keep the pitcher honest because I was as annoyed as anyone when he would watch nothing fastballs down the middle of the plate but it wasn't all the time which is why he was able to get ahead in the count more often than anyone.   He was a good 2 strike hitter but you don't bat ..320 when behind in the count so it obviously didn't happen all the time.  

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Wow, um, wow. That would be shocking. I see about a 1% chance of that, if that high.

Statistical experts say that the University of Northern Iowa, when they led by 12 with 35 seconds left, had 99.9% chance of winning! So ... you ... never ... know. (Then again, you usually know.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Statistical experts say that the University of Northern Iowa, when they led by 12 with 35 seconds left, had 99.9% chance of winning! So ... you ... never ... know. (Then again, you usually know.)

 

Gotta read that 538 article on this, I keep forgetting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm a little worried that the increase in K's was a result of a more aggressive approach to rebound after his 2011 maladies. I don't know if he can cut them out with further aggressiveness.

 

I know we usually only predict slash lines, but like the past couple years, I feel like Mauer's K rate will be the bellwether stat. If he can cut it down to 12-13%, I like his chances of hitting the more optimistic projections here. If it stays constant in the 17% range, I am not confident he can make up enough ground elsewhere (power, extreme BABIP) to do it.

I feel similarly. If Mauer can nudge his K rate back toward 10%, he probably has a handful of good seasons left in him.

[tobi0040]

Here is the 538 article

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-the-odds-of-texas-am-comeback-over-northern-iowa/

[mudcat14]

The batting champ is back!  .338/18/88, in the 2-hole.  Optimistic?  Sure.  But what if I'm right?  Wow!

 

 

[Dr. Evil]

I stick him in the 2 hole with Escobar leading off, Dozier third and Sano forth then tell him to relax and focus on OBP and hitting nice line drives to all fields and working the pitch count. Those are his core strengths.

[tobi0040]

Escobar had an OBP of .309 last year. His career is .303. We can do better leading off.

[Boom Boom]

.257/.328/.370.

 

The further Joe gets from the concussion the closer he gets to the end. Sorry sports fans.

[Dr. Evil]

Escobar had an OBP of .309 last year. His career is .303. We can do better leading off.

Such as who?

[DrNeau]

Call me crazy but I think Joe transforms himself into a traditional 1st baseman this year. I think the batting average will stay below .300 but something will click powerwise due to all of the other power hitters in the line as well as protection behind him with Sano, Park, Plouffe, etc.

 

Prediction: .279/.340/.433 28 doubles 20 HR.

 

Not the Joe of old, but a top flight baseman in my opinion.

I don't think you're crazy at all. Still, I would disagree based upon this:

 

* 2010: 9 HR

* 2011: 3 HR

* 2012: 10 HR

* 2013: 11 HR

* 2014: 4 HR

* 2016: 10 HR

 

He hasn't even averaged 8 HR in the past 6 years. Nice hit today, though. Would definitely like to see the production you listed.

[DrNeau]

The batting champ is back! .338/18/88, in the 2-hole. Optimistic? Sure. But what if I'm right? Wow!

That would be sweet.

[tobi0040]

Such as who?

I would go Mauer 1. 338 OBP last year and 9th in slugging. He lacks speed but is the best fit we have

 

Dozier 2. Tons of doubles and extra base hits. Can knock Joe in 38 percent of the time.

 

Sano 3. Your best hitter needs to hit 3.

[beckmt]

Sano will be the next 1B. Kepler will be an outfielder

[Squirrel]

 

The batting champ is back!  .338/18/88, in the 2-hole.  Optimistic?  Sure.  But what if I'm right?  Wow!

Hey, I'd rather be hopeful and wrong than ... er ... not sure how to finish that, but I like your optimism!

[DaveW]

Yeah, Sano should be hitting third until someone else is able to be a .900+ OPS guy. Sano should be getting the most at bats as possible this year and should be coming up to the plate in the first inning of every single game.

 

As far as the rest of the lineup goes, in a perfect world I would roll with this:

 

1. Buxton (assuming he starts to hit)

2. Mauer (Assuming he bounces back)

3. Sano (best hitter, hits third)

4. Dozier

5. Park

6.Rosario

7. Plouffe

8. Escobar

9. JR Suzuki

[Dr. Evil]

I would go Mauer 1. 338 OBP last year and 9th in slugging. He lacks speed but is the best fit we have

 

Dozier 2. Tons of doubles and extra base hits. Can knock Joe in 38 percent of the time.

 

Sano 3. Your best hitter needs to hit 3.

I agree on it making more sense to have Dozier hitting after Mauer.

[tobi0040]

 

Yeah, Sano should be hitting third until someone else is able to be a .900+ OPS guy. Sano should be getting the most at bats as possible this year and should be coming up to the plate in the first inning of every single game.

 

As far as the rest of the lineup goes, in a perfect world I would roll with this:

 

1. Buxton (assuming he starts to hit)

2. Mauer (Assuming he bounces back)

3. Sano (best hitter, hits third)

4. Dozier

5. Park

6.Rosario

7. Plouffe

8. Escobar

9. JR Suzuki

 

I started a blog post about Sano here.  ESPN has him #96 in MLB this year, way too low.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/456/entry-8242-espn-top-100-players/

[alarp33]

 

I started a blog post about Sano here.  ESPN has him #96 in MLB this year, way too low.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/456/entry-8242-espn-top-100-players/

 

That list is an absolute joke, the 5 minutes I spent scrolling through it was such a waste of time.  

Edited March 23, 2016 by alarp33

[spinowner]

Out of 81 posts (counting the OP and not counting this one) only one referenced Mauer's salary. Since his salary is irrelevant to this discussion I had hoped it would have been zero, but I guess I should be happy it was only one. Had this been the Strib comment board it would have been about every other post.