The stock market

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, I think the economy is going to be ... iffy for a bit. But I'm not smart enough to time the market and I'm relatively young(ish) so I'll just buy when I have money and not sell until I need money. That's been my most successful investing strategy overall.

Ya, we might be withdrawing money in 18 months for early retirement.... So hedging might be needed

[gunnarthor]

Well, my portfolio is falling pretty fast this morning. Hasn't been this low since August.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Well, my portfolio is falling pretty fast this morning. Hasn't been this low since August.

Small price to pay for that 1% of fentanyl that's smuggled from Canada..........

[Mike Sixel]

And it bounces back. I'm kind of boggled at this point (I sold all my Nvidia and many other stocks last week).

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

And it bounces back. I'm kind of boggled at this point (I sold all my Nvidia and many other stocks last week).

I don't believe in the bounce. Retailers, particularly grocery stores are going to use the tariffs as an excuse to jack up prices again. Even on things that aren't effected. It's a lie they've been getting away with since COVID because half the country has already pledged to believe everything billionaires tell us, no matter how ridiculous. Those folk will find other things to blame it on other than corporate greed and dishonesty, but they'll still complain and inflation will be worse. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm thinking about day trading again. More like every few days.... Would have been very profitable the last few days. But every time I fake trade it works, but only about sixty percent of real trades

[gunnarthor]

On 3/12/2025 at 10:23 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm thinking about day trading again. More like every few days.... Would have been very profitable the last few days. But every time I fake trade it works, but only about sixty percent of real trades

To each his own but I'd advise against it, mi amigo. 

[Craig Arko]

Welcome to 1929. Stay away from the tall buildings.

[Original_JB]

I think I'll just be doing some hunkering/idling for the next 6 months or so; trying to gauge what is going to happen is even more impossible now than ever and the daily whipsnap overreactions are all over the place. Glad I can afford to do so (there are some plusses to living within your means).

[gunnarthor]

14 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

I think I'll just be doing some hunkering/idling for the next 6 months or so; trying to gauge what is going to happen is even more impossible now than ever and the daily whipsnap overreactions are all over the place. Glad I can afford to do so (there are some plusses to living within your means).

Yeah, rough day. I am stunned that this is happening. The laws that allow the president to set tariffs have significant limiting language such as national emergency. Trump is going crazy on this - if everything is a national emergency, nothing is. Absolutely insane. One person shouldn't have this much control over our economy, which is why this power is reserved to Congress in our constitution.  

[TheLeviathan]

Could you imagine what right-wing talk radio would sound like the last three weeks if anyone else was overseeing this kind of mess?

Woof.  Also....google the way in which these tariffs were calculated under the guise of "reciprocal".  It's almost too dumb to believe.

[Craig Arko]

8 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Could you imagine what right-wing talk radio would sound like the last three weeks if anyone else was overseeing this kind of mess?

Woof.  Also....google the way in which these tariffs were calculated under the guise of "reciprocal".  It's almost too dumb to believe.

Think of the penguins. 

[gunnarthor]

Good lord. 6% loss yesterday, another 6% today. Ouch. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Good lord. 6% loss yesterday, another 6% today. Ouch. 

At least Cambodia and Vietnam are being taken down a peg with their 48% tariffs. I never was comfortable with those wealthy and powerful countries dictating the world's economy.......

[TheLeviathan]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

At least Cambodia and Vietnam are being taken down a peg with their 48% tariffs. I never was comfortable with those wealthy and powerful countries dictating the world's economy.......

Just wait until the Falklands rise up again in their tariff-free utopia.....

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Pretty ugly out there.  I am taking the MSTR/Bitcoin stance.  So far minimal losses. I am most worried that the world will sell dollars otherwise would just be in cash.   I really can't handicap what the market will do tomorrow,  possibly a reprieve.   In either case,  we have to assume profits will come down,  inflation up, and unemployment rising.    We are down a lot,  but I still feel like we have the potential for more downside.  No matter what happens I think bitcoin goes up,  either from the Fed increasing liquidity,  the dollar declining,  or a V shaped recovering.   Best strategy I can come up with right now with a potential high payoff if bitcoin spikes.    

Edit:  Then I realize its sold of quite a bit today. LOL.  Still long term likely the place I want to be.  

[Mike Sixel]

5-7 percent tomorrow...

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

5-7 percent tomorrow...

Or not. The markets are mostly shrugging, and moving slowly. 

[Parfigliano]

I'm buying frozen concentrated orange juice 

[gunnarthor]

On 4/7/2025 at 11:02 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Or not. The markets are mostly shrugging, and moving slowly. 

It slowed down to see the curve in the road and then jumped the guardrails today. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

It slowed down to see the curve in the road and then jumped the guardrails today. 

I'm sad to see that I'll never be able to retire, but I am enjoying watching the people who are mentally incapable of ever admitting they were wrong realize that they can't complain about these moronic tariffs, so the only way they can now save face is by saying, 'Money and the economy aren't everything! Don't you all feel ashamed that this is all you care about?!?!'

[gunnarthor]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm sad to see that I'll never be able to retire, but I am enjoying watching the people who are mentally incapable of ever admitting they were wrong realize that they can't complain about these moronic tariffs, so the only way they can now save face is by saying, 'Money and the economy aren't everything! Don't you all feel ashamed that this is all you care about?!?!'

Yeah, there is some "I didn't think the leopards would eat my face" enjoyment here but I'd rather have competent government rather than this shitshow.

[Mike Sixel]

And the markets shrug again. Don't try to tell me about market efficiency ever again. 

Also, my next comment might be political, so I'll not talk about capitalism....

[Mike Sixel]

Some insiders made more money today than they ever imagined possible. Look for a big drop and big increase again and again for the next few years.

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Some insiders made more money today than they ever imagined possible. Look for a big drop and big increase again and again for the next few years.

That sure feels like the game here.  It certainly makes more sense than this half-wits having an actual plan to help the country.

[Mike Sixel]

That stings. JFC that's a lot of money. 

[Mike Sixel]

And, it gets worse. I may have to go back to work, in my sixties. Great. 

[gunnarthor]

 

And, it gets worse. I may have to go back to work, in my sixties. Great. 

Sorry, ugh.

We've mostly rebounded, probably down 5-10% now, but a lot of this feels .... hollow, you know?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry, ugh.

We've mostly rebounded, probably down 5-10% now, but a lot of this feels .... hollow, you know?

I own a lot of United healthcare, since I was there ten years .... Everything else is fine, but, ugh. 

[Mike Sixel]

On 5/13/2025 at 12:32 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I own a lot of United healthcare, since I was there ten years .... Everything else is fine, but, ugh. 

holy hell. This is unreal now.