Twins Arbitration Decisions 2016

[Seth Stohs]

Here is a spot to discuss when the Twins reach an agreement with an arbitration-eligible player. If they don't reach an agreement, we can share the numbers they exchange on Friday. Here is Jeremy Nygaard's article on what to expect.

 

 

Tommy Milone - agreed at $4.5 million. (per Jon Heyman)

Eduardo Nunez - agree at $1.475 million. (per Mike Berardino)

Eduardo Escobar - agree at $2.15 million. (per Mike Berardino)

Casey Fien - agree at $2.275 million. (per Mike Berardino)

 

Kevin Jepsen filed at $5.4 million. Twins filed at $5.05 million. Mid-point = $5.225 million. (per Jon Heyman)

[DaveW]

4.5, not bad. Makes Milone even more valuable in a trade now.

[DaveW]

I still am perplexed why they offered Nunez arb. Giving him a roster spot and losing at least one of Vargas, Arcia or Santana seems like a huge mistake.

[Linus]

Can you cut an arb player is spring training and not have the contract?

 

Also Vargas has an option left.

[Kwak]

After Plouffe, how many players do the Twins have that have played 3B at the major league level?  Nunez represents the security blanket of depth--and not just at 3B!

[DuluthFan]

Nunez outperformed Santana offensively and defensively in 2015. That is why you offer him a contract and roster spot. He may never become an All Star, but that is not the position he has. He is a backup that can play once or twice a week and when called upon he can actually play.

 

Until Santana can prove he can play, his potential means nothing. His time is up. If he can't do the job it's time to cut bait. Not all prospects make it in the big leagues. Let him go. It's time. There are others coming up from the minors.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I still am perplexed why they offered Nunez arb. Giving him a roster spot and losing at least one of Vargas, Arcia or Santana seems like a huge mistake.

 

They're not necessarily related. First, Vargas has an option and serves no purpose other than a guy in AAA in case Mauer or Park get hurt.

 

Santana will make the team, and he'll play CF, SS, 2B... Arcia will make the team and be a backup in LF, RF and DH. Nunez will be a backup at 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF. They all can pinch hit. The other bench bat would be the backup catcher. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Can you cut an arb player is spring training and not have the contract?

Also Vargas has an option left.

 

The contracts are not fully guaranteed. If they're released by a certain date in spring training, the Twins only have to pay something like 20% of it. 

[stringer bell]

If the Twins weren't planning on keeping the arb-eligible players, they wouldn't have tendered them. I didn't think they needed to keep Fien, but the others really were no-brainers. Nuñez is a pretty good bench guy, who is familiar with the role. I wish he was a bit better with the glove and a lefty hitter, but then he might not be a bench guy.

 

The Twins just have so many question marks, it doesn't make sense to let major league players go. Fien and Nuñez might be superfluous, but they more likely will be needed

[DaveW]

 

They're not necessarily related. First, Vargas has an option and serves no purpose other than a guy in AAA in case Mauer or Park get hurt.

 

Santana will make the team, and he'll play CF, SS, 2B... Arcia will make the team and be a backup in LF, RF and DH. Nunez will be a backup at 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF. They all can pinch hit. The other bench bat would be the backup catcher. 

Here is the problem with that: Nunez is absolutely terrible at SS and 3rd base and below average at LF/RF/2b. He should also not be pinch hitting, he has a sub .700 OPS. In his 6 seasons combined he has a whopping combined WAR of 0.3 (negative 0.6 if you wanna use fangraphs).

 

You shouldn't be giving replacement level guys guaranteed roster spots/contracts, the Twins could sign any number of guys who can give you what Nunez does. Santana can easily put up the same value Nunez does, as could a dozen other guys.

[DaveW]

 

 

After Plouffe, how many players do the Twins have that have played 3B at the major league level?  Nunez represents the security blanket of depth--and not just at 3B!

Sano has played 3B at the major league level...how many 3B do you need on the major league roster anyways?

 

If Nunez is your starting 3B at any point then the season is more or less over anyways. But settling for replacement level players like Nunez is just more "settling for mediocrity", so sadly none of this is shocking in the least.

 

It's decisions like these compounded over two decades that get you one playoff series win in 17 seasons (20+ if you count the Smith years)

[old nurse]

As a Twin Nunez has a fWAR of 1.2.  Does that mean the Twins are making optimal use of a role player.

The Royals managed to win the World Series with 5 position players with a WAR for the season less than Nunez. They did not jettison their arb eligible role players. Role player is used rather than mediocre as that is how they are used. Rios did not have the option picked up, Infante they ae stuck with for a year.

[Riverbrian]

 

Here is the problem with that: Nunez is absolutely terrible at SS and 3rd base and below average at LF/RF/2b. 

 

This is not the Nunez I've been watching. 

 

He has not been the defensive liability that you describe. 

 

In the OF... Maybe. In the infield... He's been decent enough. 

[DaveW]

 

This is not the Nunez I've been watching. 

 

He has not been the defensive liability that you describe. 

 

In the OF... Maybe. In the infield... He's been decent enough. 

Zero range, not a good arm. Every advanced stat backs this up as well.

[DaveW]

 

The Royals managed to win the World Series with 5 position players with a WAR for the season less than Nunez. They did not jettison their arb eligible role players. Role player is used rather than mediocre as that is how they are used. Rios did not have the option picked up, Infante they ae stuck with for a year.

The Royals also had 6 guys in their lineup who had OPS+ of 120 or greater (The Twins had one)

The Royals also had byfar the most dominant bullpen in baseball (the Twins ranked near the botton)

 

Nunez had a luck driven first half, followed by a second half that matched his career norms (.692 OPS) all the while playing poor defense overall across the board.

[Vanimal46]

I wasn't a fan of tendering Nunez when the news broke, and I'm still not a fan of having him as the team's utility player. Personally I would be more excited to see Polanco in that role, where he can be the 2B/SS/3B a couple days a week.

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/twins-sign-milone-have-work-to-do-before-friday-deadline/365364451/

 

Seems like a fair deal.  

[Mike Sixel]

Very fair/good deal, imo. Still under rated by most fans.

[drjim]

I wasn't a fan of tendering Nunez when the news broke, and I'm still not a fan of having him as the team's utility player. Personally I would be more excited to see Polanco in that role, where he can be the 2B/SS/3B a couple days a week.

Good chance this happens by midseason.

 

Polanco is still young enough that there is value in having him take everyday reps in the minors for the first couple of months and only coming up if there is an injury and he's going to play every day.

 

On a related note, I do think an underrated aspect of the Twins right now is that they have some pretty good depth heading into the season - which strikes me as a way for a team to outperform their projections.

[Seth Stohs]

The deadline for pre-arbitration process agreements is just 40 minutes away. At that point, numbers become public... Of course, they can still reach an agreement before going to an arbiter (or arbitrator)... 

[DaveW]

Very fair/good deal, imo. Still under rated by most fans.

He's perfectly fine as a #4/#5 type, but the twins have those guys in spades (many of which have upside to become even better)

 

Seems to be perfect trade bait to me, hopefully someone bites after an injury or two happens in spring trainingx

[Seth Stohs]

Updated in the first post of this thread, but Mike Berardino reporting Eduardo Nunez agreeing to 1 year, $1.475 million. 

[sane09]

 

Zero range, not a good arm. Every advanced stat backs this up as well.

What "advanced stat backs up" ZERO range?

How about ZERO truth?

[Seth Stohs]

Eduardo Escobar at $2.15 million, per Berardino.

[DaveW]

What "advanced stat backs up" ZERO range?

How about ZERO truth?

Fangraphs for one....

[Seth Stohs]

Casey Fien at $2.275 million, per Berardino.

[sane09]

 

Fangraphs for one....

Please direct me to a quote which says  "ZERO RANGE" or "NEGATIVE RANGE".

[old nurse]

 

Fangraphs for one....

UZR 150 at short has him as a decent shortstop, as does every other metric for last year. Any other position suffers from small sample size problems.

[old nurse]

 

The Royals also had 6 guys in their lineup who had OPS+ of 120 or greater (The Twins had one)

The Royals also had byfar the most dominant bullpen in baseball (the Twins ranked near the botton)

 

Nunez had a luck driven first half, followed by a second half that matched his career norms (.692 OPS) all the while playing poor defense overall across the board.

Pelfrey had an OPS+ of 246

 

Then were the Twins need the most improvement is not the utility player but the regular players

[Squirrel]

Guys, start a separate thread to debate the usefulness or not of having Nunez on the roster. This thread is for posting and discussing arbitration outcomes.