Sophomore Slumps or Jumps

[GMinTraining]

What is to prevent Sano and Rosario from having a sophomore hitting drop off like Arcia; Vargas; and Santana?  What makes their performances more believable going into 2016?  

 

*Vargas 26.9% K Rate as a Rookie and 29.3% as a 2nd year player

 

*Arcia 31% K Rate as a Rookie and 31% as a 2nd year player and 23% in 3rd year

 

*Sano 35.5% K Rate as a Rookie and ____% as a 2nd year player.

 

*Rosario 24.9% K Rate as a Rookie and ____% as a 2nd year player.

 

If you tell me it's all about an increase in BB and you're not worried about an increased K rate,  I'll scream .  Why should we expect a lesser K Rate from Sano and Rosario unlike that of Vargas and Arcia in their 2nd year?

[kab21]

Sano will almost certainly not be as good as he was last year.  The good news is that he could lose .066 pts of OPS (to .850 OPS) and still be a really good to borderline great hitter.  FWIW Steamer projects him at .848 next season.  That would still put him at #25 (by OPS) in the majors last season.  So the good news is that his numbers can come back to earth a little and he is still really valuable with potential for improvement.

 

Rosario OTOH is a concern and a good reason why having Kepler seemingly blocked is fine with me.  I think both the power will be down next year and so will the avg.  He needs to improve considerably as a hitter to be a long term starter for a good team.  He (like Arcia) has tons of raw skill so the Twins aren't in a bad position but there is a good chance that one or both flops.  I am sure that this will be unpopular.

 

Kepler could just as well be included in this conversation even though his numbers were in AA.  His SABR numbers are mouth watering but he needs to sustain that.  The power is the most concerning.  He should have always hit for power but he doesn't have a long track record of actually doing it and didn't hit many over the fence last year.  I am still bullish but I would not be surprised if the OF competition and prospects considered blocked are not actually a problem next year.  Or if it is then it is an awesome problem to have.

[Hrbowski]

Simply because Sano is more talented will likely prevent him from a sophomore slump. Rosario is more similar to Arcia, but with obviously different skill sets. Vargas has a decent chance to be an everyday player, but he was never considered a top ten organizational prospect.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Talent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not terribly worried about Sano.  I'm a bit more worried about Rosario.  The OF looks pretty thin for 2016 right now and it could potentially be a problem if he takes a step back.  I think Arcia and Vargas might both end up being pleasant surprises at one point.

[Reider]

Hopefully Arcia and Vargas can rebound, but that remains to be seen.

 

Sano, while it's possible that his numbers could go down from last season, pitchers won't be able to keep him in the park all year long. He's going to put the bat on the ball and it's going to sail. Even his line drives travel with a purpose, which is also why I think at some point(s) in the season Sano might be down, but he'll never be out.

 

Rosario's offense is definitely more concerning to me than Sano's. However, what I see different in Rosario from a lot of other younger players is confidence. He came up and carried himself like he had already been playing in the MLB for years. The same could probably be said for Sano as well. Those two guys seem to have a certain confidence about themselves that I didn't first see in others like Hicks, Vargas, etc.. And of course that could mean absolutely nothing as it's only what I perceive and may have no bearing on the future.

 

The thing I like about Rosario's offense is that he seems to be quite versatile. Although he isn't going to lead the team in home runs (he had 13 last year), look at how many triples he had last year (15). Rosario just needs to put the bat on the ball and his legs are going to do the rest. My only concern with Rosario is that pitchers might start figuring him out and his batting average and obp might take a hit at some point, but like Sano, if he puts the bat on the ball, good things are going to happen.

 

Also, another thing I like about Rosario is his defense. He had so many defensive highlight reel assists last year. It was amazing. This guy plays with confidence, has a strong accurate arm and can hit for both power (some, not a lot) and extra bases. I think he's going to be okay in the long run, but it'll be interesting to see if he can keep his batting average up next year.

[jimmer]

 

My only concern with Rosario is that pitchers might start figuring him out and his batting average and obp might take a hit at some point, but like Sano, if he puts the bat on the ball, good things are going to happen.

 

 

His OBP might take a hit at some point?  That would be a real problem since it was already sub .290 last year.  

 

And, let's face it, it's not like his BA was much either.

 

Additionally, we can't blame his low BA and/or low OBP on a bad BABIP since his BABIP was well above average (.332).

[Reider]

 

His OBP might take a hit at some point?  That would be a real problem since it was already sub .290 last year.  

 

And, let's face it, it's not like his BA was much either.

 

Additionally, we can't blame his low BA and/or low OBP on a bad BABIP since his BABIP was well above average (.332).

Exactly! Your post only cements my reason for concern. It doesn't dispel it. There isn't really any room in the downward direction for him in the case of a sophomore slump. His BA was only .267 and OBP .289. His BABIP being "well above average" (.332) just adds to my concern (with league average being around .300). If anything, Rosario needs to improve upon his numbers next year.

 

For comparisons sake, here are some of Sano's numbers:

BA .269

OBP .385

BABIP .396

 

If Rosario's BAPIP is "well above average," then Sano's is though the roof high. This is just my opinion, but I can see how Sano could have such a high BABIP with how hard he hits the ball.

 

I think these numbers are even more telling:

 

Sano:

AB 279

BB 53

IBB 1

SO 119 (Sano has a lot of walks, but strikes out 42.6% of the time)

 

Rosario:

AB 453

BB 15

IBB 3

SO 118 (Rosario strikes out 26% of the time, but has too few walks)

 

Sano appears to have more room for regression in the OBP department than Rosario, but both guys need to improve at the plate. Sano needs to strike out a lot less often and Rosario needs to be more patient and take more walks if he can.

 

Either way, I thought both players had solid rookie seasons. They were both exciting to watch in their own way and I look forward to more of it in 2016.

[GMinTraining]

What is to prevent what happened to Vargas or Arcia (power numbers) from happening to Sano in terms of regression (not demotion part)?  They hit the ball hard as well when they hit it.  Is it equally as likely (K rate regression) or less likely? And based on what rationale?  

 

Because his OBP is better? 

 

Why does Sano strike out at a higher percentage if he has better zone discipline?

 

These are questions that concern me.

[dbminn]

Great question. Sophomore year is tough to predict.

 

IMO, the FanGraphs Steamer projection pretty much reflects my thoughts on Sano: 29.5%K/11.5%BB and .255/.304/.544. Most of the decreased production from 2015 is based on a lower BABIP. I think he might walk a bit more than projected.

 

Rosario is a real wild card for 2016. Steamer projections are not good: 20.8%K/4.4%BB and .258/.292/.412. BABIP drops to .305. The projections do reflect an improved K rate.

 

I'm more bullish on Rosario than Steamer.

 

• His BABIP will be about .320 because of his speed. Not unusual.
• He's already had to make adjustments. Rosario had a tough August 2015 (.228/.245/.416). He came back in September to be a league-average hitter, even though his BABIP was .288.

I predict K rate will be down for both players and both will be productive. Rosario definitely has more downside risk because he's such a free swinger.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think they'll both about what they were last year, which is nice. I don't see a big drop off for either.

[gunnarthor]

Sano (especially) and Rosario were both better prospects than Vargas.  Sickels had a good article on Rosario at minor leagueball about what he needs to do to remain a good player.  I don't have the link though.

[SweetOne69]

 

What is to prevent what happened to Vargas or Arcia (power numbers) from happening to Sano in terms of regression (not demotion part)?  They hit the ball hard as well when they hit it.  Is it equally as likely (K rate regression) or less likely? And based on what rationale?  

 

Because his OBP is better? 

 

Why does Sano strike out at a higher percentage if he has better zone discipline?

 

These are questions that concern me.

In my opinion, Arcia's problems started in 2014 after hit hit that monstrous grand slam.  Since that HR, he's been trying to hit a HR with every swing and he is swinging out of his shoes.

 

Sano on the other hand, while he does swing hard, he is still in control of his body.  While he may regress, I don't think it will be as drastic as Arcia's.

[jimmer]

I remember when people said Santana could maintain a high BABIP (not as high as he had in 2014 obviously) because of his speed as well. His was .290 this year.

 

Assuming one can have a BABIP well above average just because a guy is fast seems odd since it really only matter on IF hits.  I mean, I am guessing Rosario was just as fast in 2014 (while in AA) and 2015 (while in AAA), as he was last year in the majors, and he didn't have a BABIP over .280 in either of those.

[Reider]

 

I remember when people said Santana could maintain a high BABIP (not as high as he had in 2014 obviously) because of his speed as well. His was .290 this year.

 

Assuming one can have a BABIP well above average just because a guy is fast seems odd since it really only matter on IF hits. 

You aren't wrong Jimmer. The reality is that the future is unwritten and we are all just putting our best guess forward based on the information we have. Also, I agree with your point about Rosario's speed affecting BABIP on infield hits and it's a very good point for a few reasons.

 

If you look at a guy like Ben Revere who is also a speedster, he hits a tonne of balls into the dirt, so in my opinion, Revere's speed is going to affect his BABIP (on infield singles) more than a guy like Rosario who sprays a lot of balls to the outfield. Case in point, Rosario hits a lot more doubles, triples, and home runs compared to Revere.

 

Also, I can see Sano's BABIP higher than Rosario's simply because of how hard he hits the ball.

 

I don't think you're point of view is wrong at all, we shouldn't be surprised if Rosario's 2016 year end BABIP is lower than it was this year. I won't be surprised if it's near the same either, but you're right, we really shouldn't be surprised at all if it's lower next year considering he's not going to leg out as many infield hits as a guy like Revere will.

[ken]

I don't think Rosario's BABIP is a major concern.  He had a large drop in the second half and was a better hitter:

                                            BABIP                wRC+

1st half                                 .354                      97

2nd half                                .315                      98

 

Sano is the interesting one for me, will he take step's to be the Miguel Cabrera type of hitter and maintain the .380 BABIP, with power and walks or does he take the Adam Dunn turn - power, walks, K's and low average

[jimmer]

 

I don't think Rosario's BABIP is a major concern.  He had a large drop in the second half and was a better hitter:

                                            BABIP                wRC+

1st half                                 .354                      97

2nd half                                .315                      98

 

 

Well, we were talking specifically about OBP and BA.  You have a .332 BABIP and still can't manage a OBP over .290, that's a concern. And it is a concern since his BABIP wasn't above .277 in AA in 2014 or AAA in 2015.  And the difference of 1 wRC+ is within plus/minus of basically being the same.  Doesn't at all negate the concern.

[kab21]

 

What is to prevent what happened to Vargas or Arcia (power numbers) from happening to Sano in terms of regression (not demotion part)?  They hit the ball hard as well when they hit it.  Is it equally as likely (K rate regression) or less likely? And based on what rationale?  

 

Because his OBP is better? 

 

Why does Sano strike out at a higher percentage if he has better zone discipline?

 

These are questions that concern me.

The reason is that Sano can lose .075 pts of OPS and still be a great hitter.  If Vargas or Arcia lost .075 (or even .050) pts of OPS then they are marginal MLB players.  And that is exactly where they are at.  This is also Rosario's problem.  Rosario hitting .240/.280/.400/.680 is not an unreasonable outcome next year. 

 

Every Twins fan needs to enter next season with expectations of a .825-.850 OPS for Sano.  It is okay to dream about more (I am) but it is going to be very hard for him to be MCab or Stanton next year but some of the expectations are this high even if people will deny it.

[Ncgo4]

As long as he walks a lot and bats in a lot of runs why does he need to strike out less? If it's a given that he will make an out 65% on the time what difference does it make if 10% or 60% of those are K's? In fact if they are K's he has 0% chance of a double play. I believe it's better if he strikes out while maintaining his fantasy-like production.