Nolasco for Melvin Upton

[tobi0040]

 

Nolasco was an above-average SP for six years until the injury bug hit him in 2014-15 (3+WAR). Melvin Upton was an above-average OF until he forgot how to hit (3+WAR). We're talking about trading bad contracts, not finding a SP without moving Upton. Not off-base at all.

 

By definition, an ERA plus of over 100 is above average.  He has done this twice, in 2008 and 2013. 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

I would also trade Nolasco for Bourn or Swisher from Atlanta for the same reasons.

These are the guys I'd want light years ahead of Melvin Upton. All similar salaries. Bourn has a 2017 vesting option if he gets 550 PA in 2016. He wouldn't get that in MN barring significant injuries. Sign me up on Nolasco for Bourn.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By definition, an ERA plus of over 100 is above average.  He has done this twice, in 2008 and 2013. 

Technically, league average ERA+ for starters is more like 95.  But I agree with your larger points.

[tobi0040]

 

Technically, league average ERA+ for starters is more like 95.  But I agree with your larger points.

 

Interesting.  For the record, he has been above 95 the same two times.  2013 and 2008.

 

My prediction is we continue to see trade offers for Nolasco here, without an actual trade in real life because the guy has no value at all.  Of the deals I have seen, the Twins would not be the party saying no.

[USAFChief]

Interesting. For the record, he has been above 95 the same two times. 2013 and 2008.

 

My prediction is we continue to see trade offers for Nolasco here, without an actual trade in real life because the guy has no value at all. Of the deals I have seen, the Twins would not be the party saying no.

this particular proposal saves SD $7m. That has value.

 

Whether SD likes that value is questionable, but it is value.

[sane]

My prediction is we continue to see trade offers for Nolasco here, without an actual trade in real life because the guy has no value at all.  Of the deals I have seen, the Twins would not be the party saying no.

Do the Upton brothers have a sister?

A mother?

A mother-in-law?

[Major League Ready]

I like this idea because it opens a spot in the rotation for May or Berrios.  Upton is also a nice 4th OFerso that's a bonus.   SD probably does not go for it but I like it.

[tobi0040]

 

this particular proposal saves SD $7m. That has value.

Whether SD likes that value is questionable, but it is value.

 

Then you get into the whole concept of value.  Upton will likely be on an MLB roster next year.  At a bare minimum, he would be one of the best 4th OF in the game with more upside than most teams carry at the position.  He had a WAR of 1.6 last year alone in 288 AB's.    An above average wRc of 110.

 

Against lefties he had a .792 OPS last year.  .750 in his career.

 

He is drastically overpaid and his contract was a mistake.  But we can't just trade a bad contract for another.  Other variables exist. 

[James Richter]

.348 BABIP last year propped up Upton's offensive value.

 

FWIW, Steamer projects Nolasco to be worth 1.2 WAR next season over 109 IP, while they give Upton 0.1 WAR over 491 PA. Not outlandish to think SD would prefer to have the SP (who, when healthy, has been a quality contributor at other big parks in the NL) over the 4th OF, especially if it means they can save $7M toward some other roster upgrades.

[formerly33]

He's been awful since singing with Atlanta...

Why haven't I heard of this escapade before?

[tobi0040]

 

.348 BABIP last year propped up Upton's offensive value.

 

FWIW, Steamer projects Nolasco to be worth 1.2 WAR next season over 109 IP, while they give Upton 0.1 WAR over 491 PA. Not outlandish to think SD would prefer to have the SP (who, when healthy, has been a quality contributor at other big parks in the NL) over the 4th OF, especially if it means they can save $7M toward some other roster upgrades.

 

That means Steamer puts Ricky on about a 2.3 WAR pace if given 200 innings.

 

After the 4.2 he had in 2008, his second hightest in ten seasons is 1.8.    2.3 is more than double of what he has averaged over his career (10.1 WAR in 10 seasons),    He has pitched 180 innings the last two years and been downright awful.  Not to mention he keeps having injuries that we know little about.  So it is a pretty peculiar time to predict a bounceback, career type year.  Especially at 33.

 

If we had any faith in that number, even if he only pitched 90 innings we should be keeping him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Steamer is almost certainly based on FIP, and it doesn't directly factor injuries (so it doesn't know that Nolasco has barely pitched at all since ankle surgery).

 

Meanwhile it also probably doesn't know that Upton could be a solid platoon guy.

[biggentleben]

 

I used to live south of Tampa. One of the guys I hung around with went to a game at Tropicana and was in the same section as Upton's girlfriend. She was pissed and was yelling "All you do is get *itches pregnant" to Upton. He was in the outfield just looking super embarrassed from what I was told. 

Anyways.. I would do this in a second if I was the Twins. Takes care of 2 problems and doesn't cost much. I'm not sure if the Padres would. I would also trade Nolasco for Bourn or Swisher from Atlanta for the same reasons.

 

That's not happening. For a lower-tier prospect, sure, but those guys aren't moving for more contract.

[Pardon My Dinger]

The Twins Daily community appears to have run out of interesting things to talk about.

[twinssouth]

Knowing Ryan, he'll start and try to spin him for a bag of balls by trade deadline. It sucks but seems to be the Twins way.

[Shaitan]

 

Knowing Ryan, he'll start and try to spin him for a bag of balls by trade deadline. It sucks but seems to be the Twins way.

 

Not sure I agree with you there. That's not what happened with Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Pelfrey, or a host of other SPs. (Position players, yes.)

[jsteve96]

 

Based on this, I'd do it.  He would fill a need, even if he's expensive and get rid of a log jam.  Would Atlanta?

Padres... not Atlanta.. also I believe SD would because its a pitchers park and a pitchers league in the NL. I actually would love to buy low on Nolasco if i was an NL team

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure I agree with you there. That's not what happened with Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Pelfrey, or a host of other SPs. (Position players, yes.)

Actually, Ramon Ortiz and Livan Hernandez were indeed both dealt midseason. As was Correia and Lohse. (Lohse even had another year of control left.)

[Shaitan]

 

Actually, Ramon Ortiz and Livan Hernandez were indeed both dealt midseason. As was Correia and Lohse. (Lohse even had another year of control left.)

 

I forgot somebody took on Hernandez. I thought Ortiz was cut. Anyway, all of the above mentioned where demoted to relief well before being let go.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I forgot somebody took on Hernandez. I thought Ortiz was cut. Anyway, all of the above mentioned where demoted to relief well before being let go.

How soon we forget Matt Macri.

 

I hate to correct you further, but Hernandez and Correia never made a relief appearance in their Twins careers either.  (Ortiz was demoted to relief, and actually Lohse was demoted to AAA too before he could refuse such an assignment.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, have to admit, I really like the idea.  Looking at the numbers though, I have to think Upton is worth more than Nolasco, simply b/c he plays CF...