The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[BrianTrottier]

 

And all three were the most talked-about teams in baseball, each integrally in the conversation, and in point of fact, on how you do it right to put your team in the position to win it all.  The Twins... not so much.

 

You can provide examples of GMs making waves and it working out, and you can provide examples of times when it backfires miserably. My point about A.J. Preller was that no, it's not always better to be hyperagressive rather than being patient (which is how I view the Twins' current approach--patient, not timid). They went all in before last year and are now worse off because of it due to gaping holes on their big league club a depleted farm system, which is a direct result of Preller's decisions.

 

In the case of the Royals, who were already very well positioned to start the year, it worked out.

 

[BrianTrottier]

 

 

2 made the World Series. I'd say that's a pretty good result!
When was the last time Ryan and the conservative approach made the World Series again?

 

It's not debatable that their moves at the deadline helped. Trading for Cespedes made the Mets better, and picking up Zobrist and Cueto made the Royals better. But we can't conclude that those moves alone were what pushed them over the edge. We don't have an alternate reality where they did nothing at the deadline to compare to.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Conservative approach has won it for the SF Giants three times.

Who have they picked up at the trade deadline?

Since 2009, in roughly chronological order, here are the notable Giants in-season additions:

 

Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Marco Scutaro, Jose Mijares, Jake Peavy, Marlon Byrd, Alejandro De Aza, Mike Leake

 

Some of the names bigger than others, but none of them were stiffs when the Giants got them either.

[sane]

 

2 made the World Series. I'd say that's a pretty good result!
When was the last time Ryan and the conservative approach made the World Series again?

Oakland A's loaded up for the playoffs in 2014 by obtaining:

Jeff Samarddzija

Jon Lester

Josh Hammel

Geovanny Soto

Adam Dunn

Jonny Gomes

Lost in 2014 playoffs and were the worst team with the worst record in the AL in 2015.

I think they have converted to Conservatism.

[jokin]

 

Conservative approach has won it for the SF Giants three times.

Who have they picked up at the trade deadline?

 

What? The Giants have been one of the shrewdest traders and FA signers franchises out there. both in-season and offseason, for quite some time. And full of Plan B options when big name acquisitions failed (likie Zito).

[DaveW]

Oakland A's loaded up for the playoffs in 2014 by obtaining:

Jeff Samarddzija

Jon Lester

Josh Hammel

Geovanny Soto

Adam Dunn

Jonny Gomes

Lost in 2014 playoffs and were the worst team with the worst record in the AL in 2015.

I think they have converted to Conservatism.

The trade that doomed them didn't even happen in the 2014 run, it was the one this prior off season (donaldson)

[jokin]

 

Oakland A's loaded up for the playoffs in 2014 by obtaining:

Jeff Samarddzija

Jon Lester

Josh Hammel

Geovanny Soto

Adam Dunn

Jonny Gomes

Lost in 2014 playoffs and were the worst team with the worst record in the AL in 2015.

I think they have converted to Conservatism.

 

I don't think the A's were one of three teams being discussed in the above thread.  Please try to pick apart the Jays, Royals and Mets, as per the discussion. I'll hang up and listen.

[twinsnorth49]

 

The trade that doomed them didn't even happen in the 2014 run, it was the one this prior off season (donaldson)

Naturally.

[sane]

 

Since 2009, in roughly chronological order, here are the notable Giants in-season additions:

 

Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Marco Scutaro, Jose Mijares, Jake Peavy, Marlon Byrd, Alejandro De Aza, Mike Leake

 

Some of the names bigger than others, but none of them were stiffs when the Giants got them either.

I remember that Jose Mijares was a stud with the Giants. Much better than Kevin Jepson.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Naturally.

 

Ryan was probably subbing for him as a GM at the time too.

[sane]

 

I don't think the A's were one of three teams being discussed in the above thread.  Please try to pick apart the Jays, Royals and Mets, as per the discussion. I'll hang up and listen.

"When was the last time Ryan and the conservative approach made the World Series again?"

And that relates to Jays, Royals and Mets, HOW?

You must be jokin......

[sane]

 

The trade that doomed them didn't even happen in the 2014 run, it was the one this prior off season (donaldson)

And that is an argument for aggressiveness?

[jokin]

 

"When was the last time Ryan and the conservative approach made the World Series again?"

And that relates to Jays, Royals and Mets, HOW?

You must be jokin......

 

That is me, and I'm staying on topic. 3 teams were the talk of baseball this year, making bold and shrewd moves that didn't cut their legs out from under each franchise going forward.  Meanwhile, the Twins wheeling and dealing has netted them a backup catcher and a Korean lotto pick.  

 

Carry on.

[jokin]

 

And that is an argument for aggressiveness?

 

No, but it's an argument for Beane abandoning sound strategy in favor of pique,pettiness and pure stupidity.

[DaveW]

Beane also lost his job....Ryan has kept his job after 17 years of this. No accountability in this org

[amjgt]

There's a 75% chance this move is just shuffling deck chairs on the Queen Mary (Countless examples)

15% chance we look back and think this was a terrible move (Gomez for Hardy)

8% chance we look back and are brought to tears (Hardy for Hoey)

2% chance we look back and think we swindled the Yankees (AJ Trade)

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, there's the crux of the issue and the difference of opinion, a minor internal move here or there- or acquiring a RP closer to July 1 instead of August 1, and the Twins would have been in the postseason.

 

So you're comfortable settling for putting things off at actually trying to win for 1 or 2 or 3 more years because the core guys are just turning 25 or 26?  I thoroughly disagree with this approach.

 

I wasn't in favor of this approach, but when the team up and started tanking five years ago and the rebuild started, I think the course was kind of set.  I'm committed to seeing it through.

 

I just don't see how the current rotation is going to compete for a WS and it's not like the team is going to get David Price.  I need to see what we have in Berrios, May and Duffey to see if there is any hope the young guys can turn out to be what this team needs.  Once the rotation is fixed and the unneeded vets are out of the picture, then I'm in favor of aggressively plugging the holes.

 

Right now we're just plugging holes on paper, but we don't actually know what the issues will be until the games are played.  I'm more in favor of plugging the holes then.

[Darius]

 

Also, did KC win the world series this season with a front of the line starter??? The answer to that is NO absolutely not. Cueto pitched terrible once he was traded to KC. KC won with middle of the line pitching, great defense, being aggressive hitting and base running, and a lights out bullpen. 

 

Going back to '14, the Royals have won 22 playoff games, in 18 of those wins they allowed 3 runs or less over 9 innings.  In their four victories over the Blue Jays, they allowed 8 runs.  Just to give you an idea of how impressive that is:  the Blue Jays scored 5.5 per game during the regular season.  

 

Whether or not they were "household names," they've gotten excellent starting pitching in the playoffs, and that's why they're winning playoff series.  Not "agressive hitting and baserunning."  

 

How would you explain the Giants and Cardials winning 4 of the last 6 World Series (the other two being KC, which we've established, and Boston)?

[Darius]

 

They needed a catcher, Hicks's value was as high as it's been and odds are as high as its going to get. So they traded a future 4th OF for something they think can help them more now.

Feel free to believe Hicks was worth more of a ransom and possibly more down the road, but don't be shocked that others don't.

 

His current lack of trade value is the very reason why many think he was more valuable on the team, than dumping him for almost nothing, at least until Buxton is ready.  Also, he was EVENTUALLY going to a 4th outfielder HERE.  But, he's a starting caliber CF.  To start the year here, he would be starting the CF.  When you're saying "we traded a 4th outfielder," its just wrong.  The Yankees got a starting CF.

 

Hicks has steadily gotten better and more consistent over a roller-coaster of production over 2-3 years years.  He already extrapolates to roughly a 20/20 with very good defense given the plate appearances.  Why is it any more reasonable to think that his value would decrease, rather than increase, with more playing time?

 

I don't think the guys who like this trade understand this, or just refuse to see its merit:  It's not the fact that they traded him.  I WANT to trade him eventually.  If they were to get the same return later, fine with me.  But, do it when he's actually expendable, not when his defense and speed will likely be needed to open the season with a respectable outfield defense (assuming they don't bring in a free agent).  Don't just do it for the sake of doing it, because there is a perceived "log jam" (which there isn't!  Two of the four players in the "jam" aren't ready for the majors, according the GM himself!) 

 

It just boggles my mind that people think this move was 100% necessary, given there are about 3-4 free agents that would give the Twins solid defense at catcher, in a back-up role, for a few million bucks or less (Soto, Mathis, Navarro, Ianetta, Pena).  

 

Did you see Murphy's offensive numbers while playing in that slow-pitch softball stadium in New York?  Are you expecting that to translate well to TF?  Because I see his offensive upside being sold around here.  Realistically, he wont add any more value offensively than any of said free agents.  

 

The difference:  Murphy is under team control longer, and is .5-1 MIL cheaper.  That's worth a potential 20/20 Center Fielder who was top 5 in Range/Game in 2015 according to Baseball Reference?  That defies all things rational, IMO.  It reeks of desperation.  I don't care if Babe Ruth himself comes back from the grave to tell me that's the case, I'll never believe that it was beneficial to do it now, for that player.

 

In hindsight, it may be a great trade, or an awful one.  I don't really care about that right now.  What I do care about, is winning some games in April and May so we're not looking 5-10 games up at the Royals and Indians by the time this "log jam" comes to fruition.

[jokin]

 

His current lack of trade value is the very reason why many think he was more valuable on the team, than dumping him for almost nothing, at least until Buxton is ready.  Also, he was EVENTUALLY going to a 4th outfielder HERE.  But, he's a starting caliber CF.  To start the year here, he would be starting the CF.  When you're saying "we traded a 4th outfielder," its just wrong.  The Yankees got a starting CF.

 

Hicks has steadily gotten better and more consistent over a roller-coaster of production over 2-3 years years.  He already extrapolates to roughly a 20/20 with very good defense given the plate appearances.  Why is it any more reasonable to think that his value would decrease, rather than increase, with more playing time?

 

I don't think the guys who like this trade understand this, or just refuse to see its merit:  It's not the fact that they traded him.  I WANT to trade him eventually.  If they were to get the same return later, fine with me.  But, do it when he's actually expendable, not when his defense and speed will likely be needed to open the season with a respectable outfield defense (assuming they don't bring in a free agent).  Don't just do it for the sake of doing it, because there is a perceived "log jam" (which there isn't!  Two of the three players in the "jam" aren't ready for the majors, according the GM himself!) 

 

It just boggles my mind that people think this move was 100% necessary, given there are about 3-4 free agents that would give the Twins solid defense at catcher, in a back-up role, for a few million bucks or less (Soto, Mathis, Navarro, Ianetta, Pena).  

 

Did you see Murphy's offensive numbers while playing in that slow-pitch softball stadium in New York?  Are you expecting that to translate well to TF?  Because I see his offensive upside being sold around here.  Realistically, he wont add any more value offensively than any of said free agents.  

 

The difference:  Murphy is under team control longer, and is .5-1 MIL cheaper.  That's worth a potential 20/20 Center Fielder who was top 5 in Range/Game in 2015 according to Baseball Reference?  That defies all things rational, IMO.  It wreaks of desperation.  I don't care if Babe Ruth himself comes back from the grave to tell me that's the case, I'll never believe that it was beneficial to do it now, for that player.

 

In hindsight, it may be a great trade, or an awful one.  I don't really care about that right now.  What I do care about, is winning some games in April and May so we're not looking 5-10 games up at the Royals and Indians by the time this "log jam" comes to fruition.

 

Like the cut of your rhetorical jib, sir.

[sane]

 

No, but it's an argument for Beane abandoning sound strategy in favor of pique,pettiness and pure stupidity.

No, but it's an argument against going all-in the pot with a deficient hand, which Ryan refused to do last July.

THAT is why Ryan is working and Beane is home baby-sitting his kids.

When you haven't got good enough cards to win the pot, you don't go all-in.

You make sure you have enough chips to prevent opponents from "buying the pot" when you draw a winning hand.

[sane]

 

I don't care if Babe Ruth himself comes back from the grave..

  

 

If he does, we won't need Hicks to play RF.

The fat kid has some power!

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can provide examples of GMs making waves and it working out, and you can provide examples of times when it backfires miserably. My point about A.J. Preller was that no, it's not always better to be hyperagressive rather than being patient (which is how I view the Twins' current approach--patient, not timid). They went all in before last year and are now worse off because of it due to gaping holes on their big league club a depleted farm system, which is a direct result of Preller's decisions.

 

In the case of the Royals, who were already very well positioned to start the year, it worked out.

 

here's a list of the people on this thread saying it always works out:

 

[Darius]

 

Like the cut of your rhetorical jib, sir.

 

Apologies for any offense.  I just don't understand how people fail to see that this trade has a high probability of making the Twins a worse baseball team in 2016 (relative to keeping Hicks for a few months).  That is, unless the FO bucks the trend and starts Buxton in CF or signs a quality OF free agent (which...come on...we know how TR opperates).

 

Just like the incompetence last year that cost the fans a wild-card game.  We're going to look back on this and say, "if only we would've had a center fielder to start the season, instead of [insert 35 year old AAAA retread here]."

[jokin]

 

Apologies for any offense.  I just don't understand how people fail to see that this trade has a high probability of making the Twins a worse baseball team in 2016.  That is, unless the FO bucks the trend and starts Buxton in CF or signs a quality OF free agent (which...come on...we know how TR opperates).

 

Just like the incompetence last year that cost the fans a wild-card game.  We're going to look back on this and say, "if only we would've had a center fielder to start the season, instead of [insert 35 year old AAA retread here]."

 

No need for apologies... preach it brother. (It's as if I just found my long lost twin brother...)

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Going back to '14, the Royals have won 22 playoff games, in 18 of those wins they allowed 3 runs or less over 9 innings.  In their four victories over the Blue Jays, they allowed 8 runs.  Just to give you an idea of how impressive that is:  the Blue Jays scored 5.5 per game during the regular season.  

 

Whether or not they were "household names," they've gotten excellent starting pitching in the playoffs, and that's why they're winning playoff series.  Not "agressive hitting and baserunning."  

 

How would you explain the Giants and Cardials winning 4 of the last 6 World Series (the other two being KC, which we've established, and Boston)?

First off the aggressive baserunning and hitting was only a part of what I said the Royals did well to win the World Series. If you're going to argue that point then at least include everything, don't cherry pick a few things to try and help make your point.

 

Second off, and this I have no idea and I'm not going to do the research because I have better things to do, but how much of that was because they of the starting staff and how much of that was because of the bullpen????  You give absolutely no stats on how how the starting pitching did during that time. An overall ER doesn't mean they had good starts.

 

The Royals starters only had to pitch into the 6th inning to give them a chance to win the game, which is why I said they had a lights out bullpen. They have a shut down 7th, 8th and closer.

 

So, again I'm not sure what your point is. You didn't give any stats on how the starters specifically and you choose only 2 of the 4 reasons I said as to why to Royals did so well this season.

 

Well the Cardinals and Giants from what I can remember have had some pretty dominate pitching.  Wainwright and someone else I'm blanking on from Cards and Timmy to Mad Bum (who pitched in 3 games last year in the WS and was lights out) from the Giants.  Those two teams are constructed complete different than Royals.

 

 

[Darius]

 

If you're going to argue that point then at least include everything, don't cherry pick a few things to try and help make your point.

 

Second off, and this I have no idea and I'm not going to do the research because I have better things to do, but how much of that was because they of the starting staff and how much of that was because of the bullpen????  You give absolutely no stats on how how the starting pitching did during that time. An overall ER doesn't mean they had good starts.

 

The Royals starters only had to pitch into the 6th inning to give them a chance to win the game, which is why I said they had a lights out bullpen. They have a shut down 7th, 8th and closer.

 

So, again I'm not sure what your point is. 

 

 

First off, you gave absolutely zero support for your "theory," but demand support for mine?  D'ohk.

 

Second, I did give support, you must have missed it.  You said starting pitching had very little to do with why they won.  In 18 of their 22 playoff victories they gave up 3 runs or less, and against some pretty darn good offensive clubs.  What did I "cherry pick?"  I didn't leave out any of their victories.  The losses don't really matter, they won enough games to reach the World Series in '14, and win the World Series in '15, which is the whole point of this, right?  Continue to follow:  

 

They do have a very dominant bullpen, you're right, so I'll assume that they gave up zero runs in those 22 games (which isn't true, further enforcing my point), and the starters "only" went 6 innings in every game (again, not true).  That comes out to 18 quality starts (a statistic) in the playoffs in the last two years, buddy, following your 7th-9th shutdown theory (give or take 1 if I miscounted).  Not too shabby for "middle of the road" guys.

 

Ok, your turn to show me how their "agressive base running and hitting" won the World Series (and, yes, I single that one out because I'm not sure it actually means anything).

[TwinsCD]

When I caught wind of this trade yesterday afternoon, I was pretty surprised.  While Hicks's season (minus July) was mediocre at best, I felt like he used that July tear to finally show us glimpses of what he could really do.  His at-bats seemed to get better as the season went along and I didn't feel like he was the consistent disappointment at the plate that he had been up until July happened.  I also agree with those who say this weakens the Twins Opening Day outfield strength.  I'm not sure Bux is ready quite yet.  And I definitely don't want to see him become Hicks 2.0.  Rosario is now the best we got and I prefer him in a corner spot rather than in center.  So Rosario in left, Bux in right (for lack of a better alternative), and Sano in right?  That could be theatrical and comical.  Do we even have anything to go on with Sano in the outfield?

 

As for the catcher situation, the only thing I know about Murphy is the HR he hit off of Perkins on A-Fraud Hat Trick Night.  My brother is a Yankees fan and we were talking last night and he liked Murphy's game and that he would be adequate and dependable.  OK, great, the Twins didn't get a lemon.  But for those of you that have a Wieters or a Lucroy or a Pierzynski (why?) on your wish list, is it possible that a) the price is too high, b ) Ryan has already floated those guys and couldn't get an agreement, and/or c) those players just don't want to come to Minnesota?  I'd love to pretend to be a fantasy GM and cherry pick a top-line starter and a top-10 catcher and a power-hitting middle infielder during this offseason but this is real life and unless you're tapping Ryan's phones, you really have no idea what he's been trying to negotiate or deals he's trying to swing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I remember that Jose Mijares was a stud with the Giants. Much better than Kevin Jepson.

Huh?  Did my post not answer your question?  Why the change of topic?

 

Pence and Peavy were pretty big deadline acquisitions at the time, and Beltran was a very aggressive move (straight up cost the ~30th and rising prospect in all of MLB).

 

I forgot Burrell was signed after getting released in Tampa, but even dropping him, that's a list of 10 legit MLB reinforcements they traded for midseason over 6 years.  And those are in addition to a number of scrap-heap fliers they took on as well which I didn't include.

 

(And FYI, Mijares had arguably the best season of his career that year for the Royals/Giants, although 2009 rates higher by WAR due to leverage.)

[Platoon]

50 outfield starts isn't as many as you may think. In 162 games there are 486 outfield starts. If 4 outfielders split the load equally it's 121.5 starts each. I'd guess starting 50 games is pretty typical for a 4th outfielder.

50 OF starts for a 4th OF means you start almost a third of your games without your optimum talent in the OF. And btw, I like Robinson as a 4th OF. As long as he remains a 4th OF.