Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

[Guest USAFChief]

Did you read Stringerbell's entire post? Have you been watching the games this year? Casilla is easily having his finest year defensively. He has saved countless runs and ended many an inning, snaring line-shots, and seeing-eye, hard-hit grounders, to his left and right, frequently laying out full-horizontal and adroitly turning DPs as both initiator and middle-man- which has gotten the Twins pitchers out of many threatening situations and the club far and away leads the majors in that department. FWIW, given the quantifiable metrics that are available, Casilla ranks 7th among all active 2B for 2010-12 and 2011-12 and 2nd for 2012 alone in UZR/150. If you evaluate him solely as a hitter, I see where you're coming from, but even there, if he gets an extended run or two before the season ends, he historically has had a couple of short 10-25 day runs per year where he hits for high average and he does have 2 seasons where he hit above positional average. I fully agree with the OP, establishing his value for trade purposes and future arb worth as a utility player should be a priority in the 2nd half. If Caroll rightly returns to the career role he is accustomed as utility infielder (he currently is on pace to play 153 games, the most in his career) and can play that to age 40 (through 2014), than Casilla should play more now, with Florimon getting his shot in September. Is there anyone else knocking at the door to take that spot in 2013? Eddie Rosario is at least two years away, and there's no firm evidence in yet that he will master 2B. The Twins have to prioritize their spending on pitching, the MI has demonstrably been shored up from last year's disaster of a year with a relatively cheap fix. Hopefully Dozier continues to improve and/or Florimon definitively takes the job away from Casilla.

This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

[Mauerzy4Prez]

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

Leave Plouffe at third... he has earned that spot and nobody can make a case right now to be a better fit. What has Valencia done to deserve the starting job back? Guy is hitting .244 with an OBP of .281 in 213 AB's in AAA... not to mention he his k/bb is 34/11

[diehardtwinsfan]

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Casilla is also arb eligible for the 2nd time now... He's not cheap anymore, and this team cannot get him cheaply. He isn't going to be around much longer.

[Mike Sixel]

No way you move Plouffe at this point. He's succesful offensively and defensively right now. Why mess with that?

 

and, I agree, defensive stats for this year are not worth much.....not in precision. but, they are probably directionally useful.....

[Guest USAFChief]

Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

 

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

 

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

 

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

 

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

[ashbury]

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

Mastro was drafted as a 2B coming out of college and after a season in the low-A league the Blue Jays moved him off of there and into the outfield. When then Twins obtained him there seemed to be a philosophy to let him try 2B again, as perhaps his best chance to get to the majors, but it was less than a full success, and up with the big club he's wound up playing only in the OF. It's not the craziest idea to try it in the second half of a lost season, but the track record is that his most recent AAA coaches didn't consider him ready for prime time there, and his previous team had apparently decided he could not succeed there.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

[BobH]

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

It's worth a try. He's not going to get a lot of time in the outfield, is he?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

 

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

 

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

 

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

After 2 ABs, guys are often hitting 1.000. Obviously, we should extrapolate that out for an entire season, no?

 

Fielding stats are even more so. Every guy will get to 95% of the same balls hit to them. That means the difference lays in those final 5% of hit balls.

 

And it takes time to gather enough of that "5%" to say anything meaningful about the player. You remove outliers (say, a guy tripping, getting an unusually bad jump, or getting lucky by being shifted badly on an oddly hit ball) by waiting until you have more data. Outliers have far less impact if an odd play counts for .1% instead of 1% of the gathered data. In the meantime, those same outliers can drastically skew data one way or the other in SSS.

 

It's Statistics 101 stuff.

[Guest USAFChief]

Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

Actually, no.

 

That isn't how the law of large numbers works. It works like it does with Plouffe's seven HRs. "those numbers are accurate, they actually did happen, but wait, they'll normalize."

 

But it doesn't say "these numbers aren't accurate, they didn't really happen, but if we take enough of these numbers that didn't happen and add them up, they DID happen."

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

[Mauerzy4Prez]

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.

[stringer bell]

I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.

Yes, you don't need to be a stat wizard to see that Plouffe fits third better than short or second. I have been pleasantly surprised by his ability to charge and throw and he is steady enough going left and right. Third base isn't about range--it is reactions and footwork and while Plouffe isn't going to win a gold glove, I think he's been as good a defender as Valencia.

[Craig in MN]

On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

[jokin]

This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

Lots of mlb.com blackouts in Tuscon, gameday doesn't cut it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

Pretty much this. Defensive metrics are far from perfect; everyone who understands that freely admits it. But because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it's completely invalid, either. If two players are close, outside reference is needed. But if the players are miles apart statistically, you know there is something to that player that is good or bad.

 

Again, defensive metrics are generally evaluative tools, not predictive tools. They take too long to accumulate data to be predictive in nature. By the time you have a guy's stats nailed down, he's two years older.

[jokin]

Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

Which is why he needs to play now.

[jokin]

On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

Spot on. Money must be directed toward pitching first and pitching last...and everywhere inbetween.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

 

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

 

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

[TheLeviathan]

Really, it was only a matter of time before we heard the "Plouffe to second!" arguments come back. He's had a heck of a run here, but he's got a lot to prove to stay a part of this team's future. Two years ago we were saying the similar things about Valencia so people shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves. He's comfortable at third and hitting, let's not mess with that success.

 

Putting him at a position he's never played or one that he was never that great of a fit for in the first place would be incredibly stupid.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

Right now, I don't think it's a good idea no matter how Valencia is playing... but if the team has Trevor take spring training reps at second next season, I wouldn't complain.

 

Plouffe is going to have a hard enough time adjusting to major league pitching and playing a position he hasn't played much before now (third base). Now that he's succeeding, it's not the time to pull the rug out from under him again.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Carroll is already under contract for next season while Casilla would have to go through the arbitration process for the third time. The Twins could just decide to pass on Casilla and fill the utility role with someone from the minors.

Casilla will be non-tendered

[jokin]

Casilla will be non-tendered

 

Which again, going back to the OP, is why he needs to play now, to establish possible value now.

[Thrylos]

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player.

I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

[Shane Wahl]

Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

Exactly. I posted awhile ago about dumping grounds for Casilla and Valencia. Sticking to the former here, I believe some relevant teams would be Baltimore, Washington, and San Francisco.