Keith Law's Prospects of the Year

[SydneyTwinsFan]

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Berrios and Kepler rate in KLaw's Top 10 prospect performance of 2015. Speaks well to the depth of the system given Rosario, Sano and Buxton have all "graduated" this year.

[Major League Ready]

 

Needs Insider access

 

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Berrios and Kepler rate in KLaw's Top 10 prospect performance of 2015. Speaks well to the depth of the system given Rosario, Sano and Buxton have all "graduated" this year.

How about a little love for Duffey too.

[bluechipper]

I found it interesting that Law wrote that Kepler has "played well enough in center to project to stay there". That's good news, but it makes you wonder why they would play him so many games at first then.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

I found it interesting that Law wrote that Kepler has "played well enough in center to project to stay there". That's good news, but it makes you wonder why they would play him so many games at first then.

 

He was filling in because of an injury is my understanding. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I found it interesting that Law wrote that Kepler has "played well enough in center to project to stay there". That's good news, but it makes you wonder why they would play him so many games at first then.

During Spring Training he was worked hard on the backfields at 1B with Coach Sam Perlozzo, grounders in the 1b--2b gap, covering 1b, holding runners on, etc.  Even when he was with the MLB club early on in spring, he was working with Mauer at 1B.  So I'd say it was by design that he played so much at first.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

With SD Buhr as my witness, I've seen Kepler play a Gold Glove first base one night in Cedar Rapids. Next year will be Kepler's third option year, but he'll qualify for the rare fourth option because he was added to the 40-man after his first year of full-season ball. My guess is he's going to replace #7 eventually, but until then he'll play a utility-ish role.

[Dman]

Would be weird to have a first baseman that runs as well as Kepler.  Nice flexibility though if he lands there as he can easily play outfield if needed.  

[kab21]

He is playing 1B in order to have positional flexibility.  If there is an opening then he will play OF otherwise he has an additional position that he can easily move to if there was a need there.

[Thrylos]

 

I found it interesting that Law wrote that Kepler has "played well enough in center to project to stay there". That's good news, but it makes you wonder why they would play him so many games at first then.

 

That really makes me question the last time Law saw Kepler play Center (or saw what Kepler looks like period.)

 

On the other hand, a certain manager played Parmelee in Center...

[Thrylos]

Re: Kepler and first base:  He has been playing first base since 2011 IIRC...  Not a recent development.  Few seasons he played in teams with Kennys Vargas, DJ Hicks and Rory Rhodes (remember him?)  so he did not have much chance to play first in those seasons.

[Major League Ready]

 

With SD Buhr as my witness, I've seen Kepler play a Gold Glove first base one night in Cedar Rapids. Next year will be Kepler's third option year, but he'll qualify for the rare fourth option because he was added to the 40-man after his first year of full-season ball. My guess is he's going to replace #7 eventually, but until then he'll play a utility-ish role.

Jeremy,

 

Could you elaborate on why you think Kepler ends up at 1B.  If his OF defense even borderline acceptable in CF as suggested here, with his hit tool, would he not be more valuable as a corner OFer?

[amjgt]

 

How about a little love for Duffey too.

 

He actually kind of ripped on Duffey, in his praise for Berrios. Something to the effect of "The Twins might end up regretting giving so many starts to May and Duffey, if they just miss the post season"

 

Once you hit the majors you can stop judging people on their prospect status and start judging them on results. Duffey's results have been fantastic and I think even the biggest JO fan would have been thrilled if he provided the same results that Duffey has provided.

 

May and then Duffey getting starts were the LEAST of the Twins problem this year.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Jeremy,

 

Could you elaborate on why you think Kepler ends up at 1B.  If his OF defense even borderline acceptable in CF as suggested here, with his hit tool, would he not be more valuable as a corner OFer?

 

I think the reason is because Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks look like the OF of the future and the Twins don't like to platoon. I totally agree Kepler should be playing outfield most of the time, but I don't know that that Twins see it that way.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the reason is because Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks look like the OF of the future and the Twins don't like to platoon. I totally agree Kepler should be playing outfield most of the time, but I don't know that that Twins see it that way.

 

Agreed, all along that's been my thought, that those three (or 2 of those and Arcia) are the OF of the future, so Max plays 1B.

[Major League Ready]

 

He actually kind of ripped on Duffey, in his praise for Berrios. Something to the effect of "The Twins might end up regretting giving so many starts to May and Duffey, if they just miss the post season"

 

Once you hit the majors you can stop judging people on their prospect status and start judging them on results. Duffey's results have been fantastic and I think even the biggest JO fan would have been thrilled if he provided the same results that Duffey has provided.

 

May and then Duffey getting starts were the LEAST of the Twins problem this year.

That’s really interesting.  Keith Law was on Grant Paulson’s show this weekend and they were talking about 1st round high school pitchers that have not panned out and Law went on to say how important it was to not push these guys too fast.  Is this a direct contradiction or am I missing something?

 

Contradiction or not, I doubt the Twins are regretting giving Duffey those starts. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Agreed, all along that's been my thought, that those three (or 2 of those and Arcia) are the OF of the future, so Max plays 1B.

Help me understand here, Mike.  You are generally pretty pessimistic about prospects in general.  Why the confidence in Arcia when he has been just horrible at AAA?   I had a man crush on Arcia when he first came up but I would not bet much on him making it now.

[dxpavelka]

 

Help me understand here, Mike.  You are generally pretty pessimistic about prospects in general.  Why the confidence in Arcia when he has been just horrible at AAA?   I had a man crush on Arcia when he first came up but I would not bet much on him making it now.

Could be because in an admittedly small sample size at the BIG league level this year his average is higher than any Twin except Sano.  Just sayin

[Mike Sixel]

 

Help me understand here, Mike.  You are generally pretty pessimistic about prospects in general.  Why the confidence in Arcia when he has been just horrible at AAA?   I had a man crush on Arcia when he first came up but I would not bet much on him making it now.

 

When have I been pessimistic about prospects (other than Hicks who I felt was over rated)? I don't get the Arcia treatment this year at all......he put up a league average offense, was heating up when they sent him down......none of that has anything to do with my thought that they had a set OF between 3 of 4 players, and that Max would play 1B (admittedly, that thought formed before Mauer was moved). Frankly, he reminds me of Morneau with more speed......

[Hrbowski]

 

When have I been pessimistic about prospects (other than Hicks who I felt was over rated)? I don't get the Arcia treatment this year at all......he put up a league average offense, was heating up when they sent him down......none of that has anything to do with my thought that they had a set OF between 3 of 4 players, and that Max would play 1B (admittedly, that thought formed before Mauer was moved). Frankly, he reminds me of Morneau with more speed......

That is simply not true, Arcia was injured, put on the disabled list, sent on a rehab, struggled, then got hot for two weeks, but there was no need for him, and then struggled massively, but with that all said, I believe that Arcia should be given a chance to win a starting job.

[Ncgo4]

I think the Twins are about to wash their hands of Arcia. Not sure why I think this but I do. I also think the Twins will live to regret this decision.

[Jham]

 

That’s really interesting.  Keith Law was on Grant Paulson’s show this weekend and they were talking about 1st round high school pitchers that have not panned out and Law went on to say how important it was to not push these guys too fast.  Is this a direct contradiction or am I missing something?

 

Contradiction or not, I doubt the Twins are regretting giving Duffey those starts. 

 

Also, I'm pretty sure Law did not think Berrios' stuff would play at the MLB level earlier this year, and that his likely ceiling would be a solid 3 in a couple years.  At what point did he change his mind that drastically?

[SwainZag]

 

I think the Twins are about to wash their hands of Arcia. Not sure why I think this but I do. I also think the Twins will live to regret this decision.

 

I just don't see why.  His value is so low right now there is really no reason to get rid of him this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, I'm pretty sure Law did not think Berrios' stuff would play at the MLB level earlier this year, and that his likely ceiling would be a solid 3 in a couple years.  At what point did he change his mind that drastically?

 

IIRC, it was about the time they promoted him to AAA that KLAW started to express his belief. contrary to what some want to think, the guy has an open mind, and is willing to listen. He is also willing to change his mind, and admit when he's wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I just don't see why.  His value is so low right now there is really no reason to get rid of him this offseason.

 

They have to have him on the 25 man roster, or he will be claimed. So, the reason you might get rid of him is that you don't want him taking a roster spot, for whatever reasons they may have.

[Thrylos]

 

I just don't see why.  His value is so low right now there is really no reason to get rid of him this offseason.

 

That is Ryan's MO:  Get rid of people when their value bottoms down.   Cannot remember the last time he sold high on an MLB-level player.  Maybe Pierzynski

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy,

 

Could you elaborate on why you think Kepler ends up at 1B.  If his OF defense even borderline acceptable in CF as suggested here, with his hit tool, would he not be more valuable as a corner OFer?

 

He could definitely play OF. And if the Twins decide to move Rosario or Hicks, Kepler's future would be in LF. But he's had arm trouble almost every year and if his bat is as good as it seems, it needs to be in the lineup... and 1B would keep it there.

[SwainZag]

 

That is Ryan's MO:  Get rid of people when their value bottoms down.   Cannot remember the last time he sold high on an MLB-level player.  Maybe Pierzynski

 

How about Ben Revere?

[Monkeypaws]

 

How about Ben Revere?

Or Span.