Sano and BAbip

[Teflon]

Should we be worried that Miguel Sano's numbers through 200 plate appearances (289/.394/.584) involve a .424 batting average on balls in play? (BAbip)

 

Last year, Danny Santana batted .319/.353/.472 but with a batting average on balls in play (BAbip) of .405 - a number many Twins Daily posters thought would regress back to the norm (around .300) causing Santana's 2015 numbers to be significantly less impressive.

 

It did (.297) and they were. (.218/.242/.298)

 

If Sano had a more-normal .300 BAbip this year, his slash line would be (assuming all the hits that went away were singles) .229/.343/.524. Still a force for sure - but more of a Dave Kingman type of force than a David Ortiz force.

 

Sano's current extreme strike-out rate will improve with more MLB experience (one would hope, anyway) but the pitching strategies and fielding shifts deployed against him should become more effective too as scouting departments get more data points to evaluate. (Tampa may want to put a fielder in the catwalk after last night. Holy Crap!)

 

How do you see Sano progressing or regressing next year?

[Mike Sixel]

He has a 168 wRC+ (fancy stat about runs you produce).....if you look at the leaderboard on Fangraphs, that would be the 4th highest this year.

 

Yes, he is likely to regress, as it isn't likely that he'll be the 4th best hitter in the majors next year. But, I'd guess that drops to like top 25 or so, not like Santana dropped. Sano has hit at every level, that should continue given his strength.

[bluechipper]

I think Sano's plate discipline and learning better when to be aggressive early in the count should help to cut down on some of his strikeouts.

[Turd Furgeson]

Sano's first hit in yesterday's game gave me hope for the type of thing he can do. He was working a deep count, can't remember exactly what it was but he definitely took a bit something off of his swing to make contact while still drilling a line drive between the left infield gap for a single. He definitely takes some deep cuts when he swings but he can also change his swing a bit when he just needs to make solid contact. 

 

His strike out rate will need to come down, and I believe that it will. In the minors he was a 25% K rate guy, he's been around 35% in the majors, I'm sure with experience that will go down. 

 

Here's the deal with Miguel though, he has the highest hard hit ball percentage in baseball and he has a high line drive rate. Assuming he continues to do well in those two categories he's always going to have a high BABIP because its the best way to get base hits, not to mention that he can hit the ball to all fields. 

 

The 80 power tool is very real for Sano but his advanced approach, plate discipline and pitch recognition blow me away, this is a very smart hitter with a ton of natural talent. He's been hitting first pitch home runs lately, he can hit cutters, sliders, change-ups, and fastballs for home runs. His contact rates are good, not elite but the good thing is he generally knows which pitches he can handle. 

[SwainZag]

 

I think Sano's plate discipline and learning better when to be aggressive early in the count should help to cut down on some of his strikeouts.

 

I agree and think his plate discipline has a lot to do with it.  How many times this year did we see Santana swing and bat pitches and put himself constantly in 0-2 and 1-2 counts?  This was usually followed by a strikeout or a very defensive swing resulting in a poorly hit ball and easy out.  Sano has been much, much more composed at the plate than Santana ever was.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Guys with elite plate discipline don't collapse the way Santana did this season. It's really that simple.

Will Sano regress? Yeah, probably... but he won't collapse.

 

Worst case scenario is he turns into 2015 Joe Mauer with 2010 Joe Mauer slugging percentage. That's... a really good player. Not elite, but really good.

[nytwinsfan]

Define worry. Yes, a little. But (1) his line drive rate is through the roof, which is partly responsible for the high BABIP, and could be somewhat sustainable, and (2) hopefully as his BaBIP comes down so will his strikeouts a little, as he figures out major league breaking balls.  Worse case scenario he ends up a .250/.350/525 hitter, which is still fantastic.

[Thrylos]

No worries.  His BABIP in the minors has been at around .400 plus in three different occasions.  Might decline a bit down to .380 or so (which is pretty close his MiLB average,) but if he hits 40-50 balls out of there (not in play,) it will not matter at all.   For power hitters with decent BB% (and K%) BABIP is borderline irrelevant.  

 

Santana is a different story.  Last season his BABIP was much higher than his career (low .300s) and he does depend on a high BABIP to get on base because he does not walk much, so the writing was on the wall for him...   Buxton btw, is the same kind of player as Santana, as far as BABIP dependencies; his .364 in the majors is bit higher than his career average, but has not translated into result.  This is sure-fire indicator that he is not ready.  And the eye test shows it too...

[scottz]

Year       BA  OBP SLG OPS

2010     .307 .379 .491 .870 (2 teams)

2011     .292 .352 .637 .988

2012     .258 .373 .521 .893

2013     .280 .382 .610 .992 (2 teams)

2015     .274 .374 .544 .918 (minors)

2015     .289 .394 .584 .978 (majors)

 

I think he'll be fine.

[John Bonnes]

I wonder if Sano's BABIP is likely to be higher than most players just because he hits the ball so incredibly hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wonder if Sano's BABIP is likely to be higher than most players just because he hits the ball so incredibly hard.

I can't think of a very good comp for Sano based on how bloody hard he hits the ball. I refuse to buy into the Miggy comps because I don't think Sano has a .340 batting average in him.

 

And I hate comparing anyone to the likes of Pujols because he's a freak. Then again, so is Sano.

[Loosey]

When every time you put the ball in play it is hit hard you are likely to have a higher BABIP than if you were a normal human being. 

 

I assume as he strikes out less he will hit a few balls that result in weaker contact and will reduce his BABIP and Line drive rate.  But if that happens with less strikeouts he could conceivably still maintain a respectable batting average, OBP and Slugging percentage.  So basically by simply putting more balls in play his BABIP will like regress more towards the mean.  That being said I doubt he will have an average BABIP the way he hits.  I wouldn't be surprised if he consistently has a BABIP in the .350+ range. Either way it won't matter much if you hit it over the fence (or into the catwalk) every time you aren't going to get out much.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I can't think of a very good comp for Sano based on how bloody hard he hits the ball. I refuse to buy into the Miggy comps because I don't think Sano has a .340 batting average in him.

And I hate comparing anyone to the likes of Pujols because he's a freak. Then again, so is Sano.

I read somewhere that his hit profile (line drives/fly balls/grounders, hit speed) was pretty similar to Stanton's.

 

Edit*, here it is:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/8/23/9191183/miguel-sano-twins-giancarlo-stanton-lite

 

Seems like they are pretty close, with Sano having more line drives but fewer fly balls and grounders. The very high % of line drives suggests Sano will have a higher BABIP than average, although given his average (at best) speed, certainly not an above .400 BABIP.

[Loosey]

Probably a dumb question.  But is there a metric that is essentially BABIP but includes HR's?  It seems like HR hitters BABIP could be skewed due to having more than an average amount of their hits go over the fence.  So a normal good hitter has a higher BABIP because a high percentage of hard lines drives go in the gap for doubles, while a HR hitter has a high percentage of his hard line drives go over the fence no being included in the BABIP.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

15 qualified hitters have a BABIP over 350 this year.....none over 389....so, ya, not gonna sustain .400 I don't think.

 

BABIP already excludes HRs, btw........

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's unreasonable to expect any player to post a BABIP over .350 on a regular basis. Even Miggy and the good version of Joe Mauer only danced with that number, rarely surpassing it by a significant amount.

[Riverbrian]

 

I wonder if Sano's BABIP is likely to be higher than most players just because he hits the ball so incredibly hard.

 

Exactly!!!

 

I believe that BABIP is directly related to solid contact and not as much on luck.

 

Regression happens when he doesn't adjust to the pitchers adjusting to him.

 

When he makes weaker contact on pitches out of the zone. When he tries to pull and starts rolling over on outside pitches.  

 

If he keeps his current discipline... Everybody in Minnesota will own SANO Shirts.

 

If he keeps his current discipline. The only future time that he'll spend on the farm will be of the rehab variety.

 

[Jarends703]

 

It's unreasonable to expect any player to post a BABIP over .350 on a regular basis. Even Miggy and the good version of Joe Mauer only danced with that number, rarely surpassing it by a significant amount.

 

Miguel Cabrera has a career .349 BABIP.  Has surpassed it significantly twice (.379 and .365), been in the .350's twice, and .340's twice.  This season it is at .415 in 90 games.  13 career seasons. 

 

It can be done even though I agree that Sano may not hit for average as well as M. Cabrera. 

[Willihammer]

Sano's batted ball profile is intriguing. In the minors, he hit nearly 2 fly balls per ground ball. In the majors, he's almost 1:1. Which may account for the higher BABIP but also portend that even more power would come if his profile falls back toward the 2:1 ratio he has had historically.

 

Of course his HR/FB is due for regression too, but not a ton. He's at 31.6% for his MLB career which sounds high but he had a 22.7% HR/OFB ratio for his minor league career.

[Willihammer]

After the 2012 season I did a top prospect list based on the JAVIER projection system, which was  based on the BB, K, and ISO z-scores of minor leaguers by age-level, going back 20 years or so. Sano basically broke the system as his ISO z-score for his 2012 season at New Britain put him almost 4 standard deviations above other players of the same age/level.

[nicksaviking]

Considering Sano's biggest attribute (and greatest weakness) involve ball NOT put in play, I'm guessing that might not be the barometer we base his "luck" on.

 

His very high 31.6% HR/FB rate, now that should be perhaps something to consider, that would lead the league if he qualified.  However the guys at the top of that catagory are generally the cream of the crop as far as power hitters go. 

[SwainZag]

 

I can't think of a very good comp for Sano based on how bloody hard he hits the ball. I refuse to buy into the Miggy comps because I don't think Sano has a .340 batting average in him.

And I hate comparing anyone to the likes of Pujols because he's a freak. Then again, so is Sano.

 

What about in the mold of Frank Thomas?  Of course he would have to cut back on the K's and keep the the BB% up, but he was constantly hitting the ball hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Miguel Cabrera has a career .349 BABIP.  Has surpassed it significantly twice (.379 and .365), been in the .350's twice, and .340's twice.  This season it is at .415 in 90 games.  13 career seasons. 

 

It can be done even though I agree that Sano may not hit for average as well as M. Cabrera. 

That's kinda my point. I said "rarely passed it by a significant margin". As you pointed out, Cabrera is in his 13th MLB season and has been well over .350 just three times.

 

And Cabrera is one of the best hitters of the past 50 years. If he can't surpass .350 on a regular basis, nobody can.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What about in the mold of Frank Thomas?  Of course he would have to cut back on the K's and keep the the BB% up, but he was constantly hitting the ball hard.

Eek, Thomas comps scare me as well. People really underrate Thomas, as he's one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of baseball, probably better than Pujols when all is said and done (thanks in part to that ridiculous .419 career OBP).

 

Thomas had an eight (!) season run where his lowest OPS+ was 174. He peaked in 1994 with an absurd 212 OPS+.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Sano's batted ball profile is intriguing. In the minors, he hit nearly 2 fly balls per ground ball. In the majors, he's almost 1:1. Which may account for the higher BABIP but also portend that even more power would come if his profile falls back toward the 2:1 ratio he has had historically.

 

Of course his HR/FB is due for regression too, but not a ton. He's at 31.6% for his MLB career which sounds high but he had a 22.7% HR/OFB ratio for his minor league career.

You have to further break fly balls into line drives and fly balls. The former have a much higher BABIP for obvious reason.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

I can't think of a very good comp for Sano based on how bloody hard he hits the ball. I refuse to buy into the Miggy comps because I don't think Sano has a .340 batting average in him.

And I hate comparing anyone to the likes of Pujols because he's a freak. Then again, so is Sano.

 

I think he has a good chance to be a better version of Giancarlo Stanton. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think he has a good chance to be a better version of Giancarlo Stanton. 

Not a bad comp but Stanton is still young enough where his career arc is still very much in question. He's only three years older than Sano.

[kab21]

 

No worries.  His BABIP in the minors has been at around .400 plus in three different occasions.  Might decline a bit down to .380 or so (which is pretty close his MiLB average,) but if he hits 40-50 balls out of there (not in play,) it will not matter at all.   For power hitters with decent BB% (and K%) BABIP is borderline irrelevant.  

 

 

Actually it isn't irrelevant at all.  You can expect some power hitters (esp Sano) to have a higher than average BAPIP but BAPIP is still relevant.  His BAPIP can be high but maintaining a .380 BAPIP is completely unreasonable.  The highest BAPIP for any player from 2000-2015 (combined) is .357.

 

Sano will be fine however since part of the reason that he has a high K rate is due to him waiting for his pitch.  As he improves he should K less so the decline in BAPIP won't affect his avg as much.  If I had to predict next season's BA I would be picking .250-.260 with potential to improve during his first few seasons.   I can live with that if he keeps walking like he does and hits 35 HR's.

[Oxtung]

There are many things that go into BABIP and LD% is only one of them. Speed, FB/GB% and luck also play their rolls.  IF Sano can maintain his 26% LD rate, which I think is a big if since that rate puts him in the top 10 in baseball, that really only guarantees an above average BABIP.  

 

Some stats from 2015 about LD% and BABIP

 

* 23 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had above average BABIPs (>.300)

* 6 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had BABIPS >.350

* 14 out of the top 25 LD% hitters had BABIPs >.325

 

What does this tell us?  His LD% will likely lead to an above average BABIP.  A BABIP around .325 seems a reasonable expectation.  If he has some luck go his way perhaps he approaches .350.  Anything over that is a very unrealistic expectation.

 

When his BABIP comes down he will regress.  Not just his BA either.  His slugging will fall too because he'll be less lucky on extra base hits and because singles count towards slugging.  I regressed the numbers for Joe Mauer a couple of years ago (when he was sporting a .400 BABIP) and posted them and the effect of BABIP is quite shocking.

[Oxtung]

I decided to stay up late just to see what Sano's triple slash line looked like if his numbers were regressed.  I chose a .325 BABIP based on the data from my last post.

 

Current  .424 BABIP:  .289/.394/.584 OPS: .978

Regress .325 BABIP: .229/.343/.470 OPS: .813

 

Even after regression that is still a damn fine player and he clearly has room to improve if he can decrease that strike out rate.  However that is still a large drop in OPS.  We see that a .100 drop in BABIP leads to a .165 drop in OPS.  Not something I expected before I started to run these numbers a few years ago.