Nice Read on Kohl Stewart

[cmb0252]

2013 mlb first round and supplement round HS pitchers:

 

#4 Kohl Stewart:

Career era 2.81, innings pitched 217.2, K/9 6.2

In A+ era 3.25, innings pitched 110, K/9 5.1

 

#7 Trey ball

Career era 4.49, innings pitched 218.2, K/9 5.8

In A+ era 4.19, innings pitched 111, K/9 5.4

 

#10 phillip bickford

Didn't sign

 

#22 hunter Harvey

Career era 2.89, innings pitched 113, K/9 11.1

In A 3.18, innings pitched 87.2, K/9 10.9

 

#28 Rob kaminsky

Career era 2.22, innings pitched 227, K/9 7.5

In A+ era 2.24, innings pitched 104, K/9 7.2

 

#33 ian Clarkin

Career era 3.60, innings pitched 80, K/9 8.9

In A+ era 1.80, innings pitched 5, K/9 7.2

 

#35 Matt krook

Didn't sign

 

HS pitchers take time. Not everyone can rush through the minors like berrios.

[Guest]

 

I was hoping you'd chime in, thanks.

 

I just checked last year's splits and his K/9 between the first and second half of the season were basically identical... But he only pitched 28 innings in the second half.

 

That's... troublesome.

I agree, it is. And I consider myself someone who is nowhere near the "write him off" line on Stewart. I've seen enough of what he can do well to believe there remains considerable upside to his talent.

 

He wasn't healthy much of the 2nd half of 2014 and he seemed clearly frustrated that he wasn't being cleared to pitch at the end of the season to help his team in the playoffs. Probably not much doubt at all that shutting him down was the right call for him as a prospect, but he wanted to be out there on the mound. I liked that.

 

The thing is, I just don't think we ever saw the "real" Kohl Stewart in CR. I'm not sure what kind of health issues he had earlier this season in Ft Myers, but there's part of me that wonders if we've seen much of a glimpse of what his talent is, even now.

 

I realize it's different with a position player, but I look at a guy like Kepler and see someone who spent most of 2 years never totally healthy and, even when he was on the field, he wasn't living up to fan expectations. This year he's showing what he can really do.

 

I'm hoping maybe we see some sort of similar step forward from Stewart in 2016.

 

 

 

 

[markos]

 

I understand and agree with most of this post, which is why I'm concerned about Stewart.

 

But, again, until we know his development status, it's a lot of conjecture. Stats are important but only if they tell something resembling a complete picture... We simply do not know if that's the case with Stewart.

 

If he's not throwing his slider but the Twins intend to have him return to throwing the pitch, the stats are somewhat irrelevant.

 

If he's throwing the slider but isn't missing bats, that's a huge problem.

Even assuming the best (zero sliders the past two years) his stats aren't completely irrelevant.

 

1) They provide a good idea of the quality of the rest of his arsenal. At this point, I think it is pretty clear that Stewart is not going to end up with four average-to-plus pitches, despite what was said prior to the draft.

2) They provide a baseline for potential improvement. Once he adds his slider back into his repertoire, how much will his strikeout rate increase? Will it double? Will increase by 50%? Or less? I don't have any firm data on this, but my intuition is that a doubling his strikeout rate is very unlikely (has any pitcher ever doubled his strikeout rate by adding a single pitch? Maybe Santana pre- and post- changeup?), and even a 50% increase (essentially going from Phil Hughes to Trevor May) isn't a given. But at his current 14% K%, a 50% increase will put him at 21%, which is good (maybe slightly above-average) but not elite. 

 

So even with all the unknowns about his development plan and pitch usage, I still think it is reasonable to look at what he has done and compare it to the historical context. Sure, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but we can adjust for some of that uncertainty, especially by giving Stewart the benefit of the doubt in certain cases. And even when giving him the benefit of the doubt in all cases, it still is the case (in my opinion) that his best case scenario is league-average, mid-rotation starter. 

[markos]

 

2013 mlb first round and supplement round HS pitchers:

#4 Kohl Stewart:
Career era 2.81, innings pitched 217.2, K/9 6.2
In A+ era 3.25, innings pitched 110, K/9 5.1

#7 Trey ball
Career era 4.49, innings pitched 218.2, K/9 5.8
In A+ era 4.19, innings pitched 111, K/9 5.4

#10 phillip bickford
Didn't sign

#22 hunter Harvey
Career era 2.89, innings pitched 113, K/9 11.1
In A 3.18, innings pitched 87.2, K/9 10.9

#28 Rob kaminsky
Career era 2.22, innings pitched 227, K/9 7.5
In A+ era 2.24, innings pitched 104, K/9 7.2

#33 ian Clarkin
Career era 3.60, innings pitched 80, K/9 8.9
In A+ era 1.80, innings pitched 5, K/9 7.2

#35 Matt krook
Didn't sign

HS pitchers take time. Not everyone can rush through the minors like berrios.

But most high 1st-round picks do move fast. If you look back at the previous 6 years (2007-2012), there were 13 HS pitchers that avoided losing a full season due to an injury. Four of them appeared in the majors within their first two seasons (Bumgarner, Jacob Turner, Bundy, Fernandez). Another five at least made it to AA by the end of second season (Jarrod Parker, Shelby Miller, Jameson Taillon, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson). 

[nicksaviking]

2013 mlb first round and supplement round HS pitchers:

#4 Kohl Stewart:

Career era 2.81, innings pitched 217.2, K/9 6.2

In A+ era 3.25, innings pitched 110, K/9 5.1

#7 Trey ball

Career era 4.49, innings pitched 218.2, K/9 5.8

In A+ era 4.19, innings pitched 111, K/9 5.4

#10 phillip bickford

Didn't sign

#22 hunter Harvey

Career era 2.89, innings pitched 113, K/9 11.1

In A 3.18, innings pitched 87.2, K/9 10.9

#28 Rob kaminsky

Career era 2.22, innings pitched 227, K/9 7.5

In A+ era 2.24, innings pitched 104, K/9 7.2

#33 ian Clarkin

Career era 3.60, innings pitched 80, K/9 8.9

In A+ era 1.80, innings pitched 5, K/9 7.2

#35 Matt krook

Didn't sign

HS pitchers take time. Not everyone can rush through the minors like berrios.

Yeah, Stewart and Ball were about as consensus as you can get for the top two HS arms.

[cmb0252]

But most high 1st-round picks do move fast. If you look back at the previous 6 years (2007-2012), there were 13 HS pitchers that avoided losing a full season due to an injury. Four of them appeared in the majors within their first two seasons (Bumgarner, Jacob Turner, Bundy, Fernandez). Another five at least made it to AA by the end of second season (Jarrod Parker, Shelby Miller, Jameson Taillon, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson).

 

Several of these guys you mentioned who were up to AA in their 2nd year were only up for a handful of starts. I wonder if Stewart puts together a few more solid starts if he will be to. If not, starting in AA when 21/3rd year of pro ball is still impressive.

[h2oface]

 

High School pitchers take waaaaayyyyyy too much time. The 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 year plan to the bigs, especially if Twins' scouts pick them. I am over it. I say hype and trade to get a real major league ball player.... like Tulo.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

given the pitching in the upper minors pipeline.  I'd think HS pitching is the way to go right now.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Has this guy seen him pitch? Seems ridiculous to make these comments if he hasn't.

He is kind of the "it" guy in the scouting industry right now. He is very plugged in and talks to a lot of the right people to get the information that he doesn't see himself. So if he is saying that is because it either came from his own eyes, or a scouts in whom he trusts as reliable. He/they could be wrong of course, but I definately don't think we can just chalk up his very low K% to only development.

 

They might simply trying to turn him into a pitch to contact two-seemer/sinker pitcher like Gibson or Pelfrey. Not that they don't have value, but certainly not the type of pitcher that will consistently shut opponents down. Unless, he is playing behind a top 5 defense. Our IF defense in 3-4 years will be a big part of how he ends up I am guessing. 

 

Sounds like a great kid, just not sold on him, and just personally can't stand pitch to contact two-seem/sinker guys who pitch in the zone too often, and I am guessing that is what will be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I know Neil Allen has made it an emphasis for Twins pitchers to get Ks, so I don't think Stewart's low K rate is that the Twins are trying to turn him into a pitch to contact low K guy.  They could certainly be having him emphasize that aspect of things as it may be something he's weaker at, who knows... that's certainly a part of what controlling the fastball is all about.  We will see.  I think the concern though over his Ks is a bit warranted at this point.

 

[Ncgo4]

I still think Stewart has 1 or 2 starter potential. He never concentrated on baseball in high school. As a result he got onto professional ball and almost certainly wore his arm out. Next year at AA will be the first chance to see his real potential. Of course I just made all of this up, but I think it could be true. I can hope!

[launchingthrees]

It's difficult to get serious analysis on a twins player from a twins forum. People want him to be good, and we will rationalize all his weaknesses because that's what fans do. Look at those defending him. They are holding on to the ridiculous idea that his strikeout #s are bad because the twins are protecting a 21 year old pitcher in his 3rd year by not having him throw sliders. It's absurd.

 

We have thousands of examples of pitching prospects from the last 20 years. Can anyone give a single example, just one, of a pitcher with his k/9/age combination that ended up being elite? Even considering him a major league prospect right now is a stretch. It's fun to be optimistic but the level of analysis going on here is youtube comment worthy.

 

He won't be included in a single top 100 prospect list. His K/9 # guarantees(literally 100%) he won't be elite at the next level. Every single national scout has written him off. The best we can hope for is that he ends up as a back end starter, possibly an average reliever. Most high school pitchers bust. He's a bust. Time to move on.

[nicksaviking]

While I agree that Stewart's lake of strikeouts preclude him from being a decent prospect, for the sake of objectivity I'll disagree with two points.

 

1. If he has the possibility of being a backend starter, as you mentioned for his ceiling, I don't think we could call him a bust, that's still a usable ball player.

 

2. Nothing is literally 100% certain. I've also made the same point about being unable to find a guy with such sorry strikeout numbers that ended up missing bats at the majors, but that's a hard stat to sort and it doesn't mean there isn't a comp somewhere. Also, we can't be 100% certain that the Twins aren't taking some unorthodoxed approach with this guy. There is a possibility they are asking Stewart to shelve the slider in two strike counts and insist he use the sinker, a pitch that rarely generates strikeouts.

[launchingthrees]

 

While I agree that Stewart's lake of strikeouts preclude him from being a decent prospect, for the sake of objectivity I'll disagree with two points.

1. If he has the possibility of being a backend starter, as you mentioned for his ceiling, I don't think we could call him a bust, that's still a usable ball player.

2. Nothing is literally 100% certain. I've also made the same point about being unable to find a guy with such sorry strikeout numbers that ended up missing bats at the majors, but that's a hard stat to sort and it doesn't mean there isn't a comp somewhere. Also, we can't be 100% certain that the Twins aren't taking some unorthodoxed approach with this guy. There is a possibility they are asking Stewart to shelve the slider in two strike counts and insist he use the sinker, a pitch that rarely generates strikeouts.

 

 

There are people in this very thread arguing that he's missing bats because he's shelving his slider. Multiple people still have him in their top 10 twin's prospect lists. It's laughable. There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.

[twinssouth]

There are people in this very thread arguing that he's missing bats because he's shelving his slider. Multiple people still have him in their top 10 twin's prospect lists. It's laughable. There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.

 

 

Have you seen him pitch? Just curious, as you have written him off

[USMCTwin]

 

There are people in this very thread arguing that he's missing bats because he's shelving his slider. Multiple people still have him in their top 10 twin's prospect lists. It's laughable. There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.

 

You should write into MLB Pipeline and tell them their list is laughable, seeing as how it was updated at the midway point.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min

[TRex]

In response to Nick's comment that:

 

"... we can't be 100% certain that the Twins aren't taking some unorthodoxed approach with this guy."

 

I would add that how many top-flight pitchers have been Type I diabetics? While I am not a medical doctor (and I am a self-proclaimed Twins apologist), I do know that some medical pathologies associated with diabetes are the result of decreased vascularization. Since ligaments are already poorly vascularized, it might seem very prudent to take extreme caution with Stewart's UCL (perhaps especially prudent since his diabetes may decrease the efficacy of TJ surgery).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's difficult to get serious analysis on a twins player from a twins forum. People want him to be good, and we will rationalize all his weaknesses because that's what fans do. Look at those defending him. They are holding on to the ridiculous idea that his strikeout #s are bad because the twins are protecting a 21 year old pitcher in his 3rd year by not having him throw sliders. It's absurd.

It's not absurd when there have been repeated mentions of this strategy. Does that mean the Twins are still employing this approach? No, and that's why some of us really want to find out what's happening.

 

Is it likely the Twins are using such an unorthodox approach in Stewart's third season? No, I don't think it's likely... but it's possible. All I want is an answer because I'm not a fan of trying to form a conclusion with such incomplete information.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.

I'm glad you're so sure of this because it's not like Nick Blackburn started 145 games in the majors or anything.

 

You accuse people of being absurd and make a comment like that? Come on. Utter nonsense.

[drjim]

There is some middle ground between not reaching the ceiling hoped for from a #4 pick and having no chance to be a major league pitcher.

[Guest]

 

There is some middle ground between not reaching the ceiling hoped for from a #4 pick and having no chance to be a major league pitcher.

Middle ground? You're new here, right?

[Dance with Disco Dan]

 

There is some middle ground between not reaching the ceiling hoped for from a #4 pick and having no chance to be a major league pitcher.

 

This.  I'd be first in line to make a substantial bet on Kohl at 1000-1 odds given a 58 GB% and 15 LD % as a 20 year old (NOT 21 year old) in High A.  Mark Buhrle has made $138 million and played the game for a long time without striking anyone out.  I agree that Kohl will never be great until he changes something (new delivery, new pitch mix, new pitch, etc.) that helps him miss bats.  But I don't understand how an impassioned argument that he'll never be elite concluded with a determination that he has a .1% chance to be a MLB'er.  His draft position alone will give him every opportunity to succeed.  I just hope he stays healthy as he climbs the ranks.

[nicksaviking]

 

There are people in this very thread arguing that he's missing bats because he's shelving his slider. Multiple people still have him in their top 10 twin's prospect lists. It's laughable. There is a non-0 chance that he's a major league regular, sure. But when you're talking 1/1000 chance. Let's just call it 0.

 

Well Tyler Duffey had a mere 6.3 K/9 at Ft. Myers as a 22-year-old in 2013 and we just saw him put on a clinic at the MLB level last night. I think 1/1000 odds are stretching it a bit.  What if we find out tomorrow that the Twins told Duffey to shelve his curve in favor of working on his other pitches and just recently let him unleash it now that they feel he's ready?

 

I can't believe I have to defend Stewart here, I've been one of his harshest critics.  I just don't like working in absolutes.

[Steve Lein]

 

In response to Nick's comment that:

 

"... we can't be 100% certain that the Twins aren't taking some unorthodoxed approach with this guy."

 

I would add that how many top-flight pitchers have been Type I diabetics? While I am not a medical doctor (and I am a self-proclaimed Twins apologist), I do know that some medical pathologies associated with diabetes are the result of decreased vascularization. Since ligaments are already poorly vascularized, it might seem very prudent to take extreme caution with Stewart's UCL (perhaps especially prudent since his diabetes may decrease the efficacy of TJ surgery).

 

I've said this many times here in threads about Stewart. I am an insulin-dependent diabetic (Type I), just like he is.

 

We are far more at risk for ligament and joint problems than non-diabetics. The shoulder is actually the most concerning of them all, not the elbow. It's the reason my shoulder gets sore any time I throw a baseball now. It's also an area he has had problems with. It's definitely a blood-circulation issue.

 

In us diabetics, where our blood sugar is not regulated by the body, sugars are obviously going to be present in our blood at a higher-than average number/rate (for you're background information, a healthy person with a healthy pancreas, is going to have a blood sugar in the range of 85-120 mg/dL, 95% of the time. I'd venture I typically average around 190 mg/dL). The higher the blood sugar, the thicker your blood is.

 

When I was diagnosed, my blood sugar at the hospital was 898 mg/dL. Doctor's told my family I had cottage cheese running through my veins, to give you an idea of the contrast possible.

 

Thicker blood doesn't circulate and provide oxygen to muscles as well, thus, joint and ligament problems are very common.

 

But Kohl is a professional baseball player with professional baseball and medical people around him all the time, it's not a curse to his prospects as a MLB pitcher. Brandon Morrow has it, plenty of others have. He just has to work that much harder to keep his arm in shape. I have no doubts he's capable of that.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What if we find out tomorrow that the Twins told Duffey to shelve his curve in favor of working on his other pitches and just recently let him unleash it now that they feel he's ready?

I probably wouldn't believe it.  Even elite pitchers actually need to develop their breaking stuff, you can't just shelve something you expect to be a wipeout pitch for multiple years/levels.

 

If they are emphasizing the slider less with Stewart, it's almost certainly because it's not a wipeout quality pitch and they don't think it's his ticket to the big leagues anyway.  Any minor limiting/controlling of the pitch for injury concerns probably wouldn't affect his stats that much (or would be dwarfed by the effects of inning/pitch counts).

[cmb0252]

What has been reported by multiple sources.

 

-Kohl was a thrower and not a pitcher when drafted.

-The Twins wanted him to focus on his fastball command last year and shelved his slider for a period of time. Not all year.

-The Twins have had him focus on his 2-seamer this year.

 

That's what we know.

 

If you want to kill him for his low K rate, justifiable, you also have to give him credit for his impressive GO rate and his overall performance while being 3 years under the average age. K rate, GO rate, and age vs competition are all good indicators for future success. Can't point at one stat and ignore the others just because you don't like Kohl.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Overall performance? Last I checked, he was notably worse than league average in run prevention this year. It is clearly not just the K rate that is worrisome.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

 

Overall performance? Last I checked, he was notably worse than league average in run prevention this year. It is clearly not just the K rate that is worrisome.

 

That's not the case anymore as a result of a strong second half of the season:

 

FSL Avg. ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA last 10 starts (2.53)*

 

*This figure includes a career-worst game where he gave up 7 earned runs--in the other 9 games his ERA (1.69)

 

 

[cmb0252]

That's not the case anymore as a result of a strong second half of the season:

 

FSL Avg. ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA last 10 starts (2.53)*

 

*This figure includes a career-worst game where he gave up 7 earned runs--in the other 9 games his ERA (1.69)

To add to what you said, he has the 21st best ERA in A+ with only one person ahead of him being younger.

[Mike Sixel]

didn't Stiel just do an interview saying that across the system they are emphasizing strikeouts? Is kohl exempt from that?