Hicks' Splits

[mudcat14]

First off, I am very happy with the improvement we've seen from Aaron this season.  I have to ask though, with the tremendous disparity between his RH/LH splits (over .400 in OPS,) might it be worth a try to have him shelve switch-hitting for the rest of the season?  I know he's done so briefly, in the past.  Unless he  can start to solve RH pitching, it's hard to see him as anything more than a platoon partner. 

[Shane Wahl]

In no way, shape, or form should they mess with him at all. Give him some days off (to play, I don't know, Arcia instead . . . ).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah for now, let Hicks be Hicks. For 2016, a right field platoon of Arcia and Hicks might be a possibility, or whenever Buxton takes the CF job for good.

[stringer bell]

Hicks looks like he has hit feet under himself now. Some of the disparity in his L/R split appears to be luck--his BABIP left handed is .262 vs. .444 righty.  I doubt that continues. However, he has RH power, not so much from the other side. The walk and strikeout numbers also indicate that his splits should narrow. What is apparent though, at this stage, is RH is his power side. Hicks has 6 homers (5 RH) with twice as many plate appearances against right handed pitching. That would mean that he is 10 times more likely to homer against a lefty.

[70charger]

I don't think shelving switch hitting is a good idea, but I do think that with the roster we have, switch hitting will become less and less of an option for him over the next couple years. With Buxton roaming center, and good hitters like Arcia and Rosario (and Kepler?) manning the corners, there won't be any real reason to play Hicks against good right-handed pitchers.

 

I think he'll naturally settle into a role of part-time outfielder, bench bat, and good defensive replacement, and if that's the case, I'd expect the majority of his at-bats to be right-handed anyway.

[sane]

If you think Hicks will hit right-handed-pitchers better from the right side, you are delusional. He may be a better hitter from the right side, but that is against LEFT-HANDED pitching. When right handed pitchers alternate fast-balls under your chin, with unreachable breaking balls away, hitting becomes exponentially more difficult for the right-hand hitter.

[kab21]

Actually the reason that people are delusional is that Hicks hasn't barely batted RH against RHP.  I don't think it is practical to start in the middle of the season against MLB pitchers.  I think several people suggested this last year though.

 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

I think the ship has sailed on righty vs. righty. As I said earlier, the splits look like they'll tighten up, but if he is ten times more likely to hit a homer RH, his OPS will probably always be better from that side.

[nytwinsfan]

Guys, Arcia is not going to be an outfielder. This pitching staff needs all the help it can get, and an outfield of Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler is a great group offensively and defensively for the next 6 years.  If Arcia is going to play for the Twins it is going to be primarily at DH. That is the only position he is fit to play. Obviously that would require the Twins trading Plouffe and moving Sano to 3B, which may or may not happen. Otherwise, with Mauer at 1B, there is no room for Arcia. I'm open to divergent views, but please please do not make the following tired arguments:

 

(1) Mauer should move to catcher or retire. Come on.  It isn't going to happen. Mauer is the 1B until he is badly injured, Terry Ryan is fired and replaced by Billy Beane, or yes, if he retires. But the last two are not going to happen, and I won't root for the first one out of human decency and respect for Mauer's career, which I know some of you don't share.

 

(2) Plouffe, Arcia, or Sano should play in the outfield.  This makes no sense. You have four very good outfield prospects who can both hit and play great defense. Those are much harder to come by than good but not great hitters (Sano may end up being a great hitter, but I doubt that about Plouffe or Arcia) that have limited speed in the outfield. Trade one of Plouffe or Arcia, preferably at the height of their value (which is probably now for Plouffe but not now for Arcia). Sano and Plouffe are good athletes and relatively quick FOR THEIR SIZE. They are not quality outfield defenders. They can play outfield in a pinch. Otherwise they are 3B, 1B, or DH. Obviously 3B is where the most value is for both of them, which is why I think we should trade one or the other (probably Plouffe). But I don't know if Terry Ryan shares that view.

 

(3) Arcia can be a bench LH bat.  Look, this makes some sense on the surface, but the reality is that managers want their extra position players on the roster to have at least some positional flexibility. But Arcia has, as I noted, none. A potentially better option is to have Arcia play DH, Sano 3B, and Plouffe be the bench bat, pinch hitting and occasionally playing 3B, DH, 1B, and corner outfield. That might make sense but I don't think Plouffe would accept it, and would rightly ask for a trade first.

 

Guys, the outfield of the next six years is going to be Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and probably Kepler mixed in as well (as much as I am bullish on Kepler, he still has the least track record). Get used to it.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I don't think shelving switch hitting is a good idea, but I do think that with the roster we have, switch hitting will become less and less of an option for him over the next couple years. With Buxton roaming center, and good hitters like Arcia and Rosario (and Kepler?) manning the corners, there won't be any real reason to play Hicks against good right-handed pitchers.

 

I think he'll naturally settle into a role of part-time outfielder, bench bat, and good defensive replacement, and if that's the case, I'd expect the majority of his at-bats to be right-handed anyway.

THIS.

[Badsmerf]

I've been an advocate of him dropping switch hitting his entire professional career. He is terrible from the left side. I really don't think it's possible to be worse, especially since he is actually good from the right.

 

Switch hitting only works when a player can actually hit from both sides. Hicks has proven this is not true. There are far more players in this league that don't switch hit, and for good reason.

 

I was hopeful when he dropped it last year, but he didn't give it enough time. The off-season is really the correct time to make these kind of changes.

[nicksaviking]

 

I've been an advocate of him dropping switch hitting his entire professional career. He is terrible from the left side. I really don't think it's possible to be worse, especially since he is actually good from the right.

Switch hitting only works when a player can actually hit from both sides. Hicks has proven this is not true. There are far more players in this league that don't switch hit, and for good reason.

I was hopeful when he dropped it last year, but he didn't give it enough time. The off-season is really the correct time to make these kind of changes.

 

Well he's spent nearly 20 years watching pitches come from the opposite arm of the pitcher, to think that he will be better watching the pitch come from a different angle after two decades seems pretty crazy to me. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm more interested in his splits of late since he's turned it on...   Not sure his season splits are necessarily indicative of how he's doing RIGHT NOW against righties. 

 

Just my 2 cents.  I'd leave the kid alone.  He's doing well.  Let him get some confidence. 

[stringer bell]

IIRC, Hicks splits were not too wide when he was hitting .250, since then he's knocked several HRs (all RH) and had a run of multi-hit games which ended when the entire team could not buy a knock.

 

I don't have access to hard hit percentage, but his BABIP is pretty skewed right now and those things tend to stabilize.

[stringer bell]

 

Guys, Arcia is not going to be an outfielder. This pitching staff needs all the help it can get, and an outfield of Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler is a great group offensively and defensively for the next 6 years.  If Arcia is going to play for the Twins it is going to be primarily at DH. That is the only position he is fit to play. Obviously that would require the Twins trading Plouffe and moving Sano to 3B, which may or may not happen. Otherwise, with Mauer at 1B, there is no room for Arcia. I'm open to divergent views, but please please do not make the following tired arguments:

 

(1) Mauer should move to catcher or retire. Come on.  It isn't going to happen. Mauer is the 1B until he is badly injured, Terry Ryan is fired and replaced by Billy Beane, or yes, if he retires. But the last two are not going to happen, and I won't root for the first one out of human decency and respect for Mauer's career, which I know some of you don't share.

 

(2) Plouffe, Arcia, or Sano should play in the outfield.  This makes no sense. You have four very good outfield prospects who can both hit and play great defense. Those are much harder to come by than good but not great hitters (Sano may end up being a great hitter, but I doubt that about Plouffe or Arcia) that have limited speed in the outfield. Trade one of Plouffe or Arcia, preferably at the height of their value (which is probably now for Plouffe but not now for Arcia). Sano and Plouffe are good athletes and relatively quick FOR THEIR SIZE. They are not quality outfield defenders. They can play outfield in a pinch. Otherwise they are 3B, 1B, or DH. Obviously 3B is where the most value is for both of them, which is why I think we should trade one or the other (probably Plouffe). But I don't know if Terry Ryan shares that view.

 

(3) Arcia can be a bench LH bat.  Look, this makes some sense on the surface, but the reality is that managers want their extra position players on the roster to have at least some positional flexibility. But Arcia has, as I noted, none. A potentially better option is to have Arcia play DH, Sano 3B, and Plouffe be the bench bat, pinch hitting and occasionally playing 3B, DH, 1B, and corner outfield. That might make sense but I don't think Plouffe would accept it, and would rightly ask for a trade first.

 

Guys, the outfield of the next six years is going to be Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and probably Kepler mixed in as well (as much as I am bullish on Kepler, he still has the least track record). Get used to it.

Agree with almost everything you said, except the part about the die being cast with Arcia as only a DH. He has the capacity to be decent, never great or even good, in the OF. The arm is strong enough and the range is adequate. IMHO, his biggest problem defensively is focus. Maturity and realizing it increases his value to play in the field could help that problem substantially.

 

I think the four OFs you mentioned will have the inside track to being regulars for the forseeable future, but that is no guarantee they all will pan out and they all have some proving to do. Injuries happen and some ruin careers.  You just can't pencil in names and expect them to be there 'til free agency.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Agree with almost everything you said, except the part about the die being cast with Arcia as only a DH. He has the capacity to be decent, never great or even good, in the OF. The arm is strong enough and the range is adequate. IMHO, his biggest problem defensively is focus. Maturity and realizing it increases his value to play in the field could help that problem substantially.

 

I think the four OFs you mentioned will have the inside track to being regulars for the forseeable future, but that is no guarantee they all will pan out and they all have some proving to do. Injuries happen and some ruin careers.  You just can't pencil in names and expect them to be there 'til free agency.

Arcia's arm is fine, but I don't think his range is. What evidence do you have for that? Yeah, obviously there are always injury risks, especially with Buxton and Kepler, who both have a history of them. If you can show me that Arcia has decent range, I might agree with you.

[mudcat14]

If you think Hicks will hit right-handed-pitchers better from the right side, you are delusional. He may be a better hitter from the right side, but that is against LEFT-HANDED pitching. When right handed pitchers alternate fast-balls under your chin, with unreachable breaking balls away, hitting becomes exponentially more difficult for the right-hand hitter.

Since Hicks has actually attempted this conversion briefly in the past I would submit that it's not delusional, rather it's quite conceivable. I accept that doing so in-season at the MLB level is probably the most inopportune time to make that adjustment. But it is merely that. An adjustment. Granted, a major adjustment, but good hitters make adjustments all the time. Great hitters do it very well. It's not as though I'm suggesting that he start throwing with his foot. We've actually had a couple of former #1 picked RH CF's with our beloved Twins that made lesser significant adjustments in their hitting approach, with career altering success.

 

I've done no research, but will confidently state that the vast majority of professional pitchers throw with their right arms. On top of that, a majority of professional ballplayers bat from the right hand side. I'd even be willing to bet that in the history of the MLB, there have been more righty vs. righty AB's than any other match-up. Some, I believe have worked out quite well for the batters.

 

IIRC, Hicks began switch-hitting in his mid teens. Perhaps it's just a failed experiment that's gone on for too long. It isn't the first. The Edsel, New Coke, Betamax, ...do you remember the Chevy Chase Talk Show? Wise people, who could read the writing on the wall, pulled the plug. Maybe it's time for the Twins and AH to do the same.

[nicksaviking]

Arcia's arm is fine, but I don't think his range is. What evidence do you have for that? Yeah, obviously there are always injury risks, especially with Buxton and Kepler, who both have a history of them. If you can show me that Arcia has decent range, I might agree with you.

You don't need much range in RF at Target Field, there's no foul territory and you can barely play hop scotch between the infield and the wall. You need even less range if Buxton is in CF. also with all the shifting, Dozier is basically playing outfield half the time vs left handed hitters.

 

Besides, there's no law against having sub par defensive right fielders. The team has one now.

[sane]

The conversion is possible.

IMO, The success of the conversion is unlikely if not delusional.

[rghrbek]

It's exciting to see Hicks playing better this time around.  However, I think we should all temper our expectations.   His splits are still pretty insane:

 

from gleeman:

• Aaron Hicks' improved overall performance is very encouraging from a one-time top prospect who's still just 25 years old, but not being able to hit right-handed pitching remains a big issue. This season he's hit .375/.429/.578 off lefties and .228/.291/.315 off righties. For his career he's hit .288/.374/.466 off lefties and .197/.277/.287 off righties. Hicks is a switch-hitter, but in both the minors and the majors he's shown little ability to be an asset from the left side of the plate.

 

At this point and time, he still projects out to be a part time player, unless he can get those left side numbers up.

 

The advantage (if you want to call it that) with him getting all of Buxton's playing time, is that we should know even more by September.

[nytwinsfan]

 

You don't need much range in RF at Target Field, there's no foul territory and you can barely play hop scotch between the infield and the wall. You need even less range if Buxton is in CF. also with all the shifting, Dozier is basically playing outfield half the time vs left handed hitters.

Besides, there's no law against having sub par defensive right fielders. The team has one now.

 

Yeah, I disagree. It is true that Hunter is not great, but he's done better than expected. Fangraph's RngR, Range runs above average rates him as having saved 4.8 runs, which is admittedly surprising to the point of being a little suspect, especially having a -18.4 for this stat last year. In any event, he hasn't been a disaster. Compare that with Arcia who has had -11.5, -4.4, and -2.7 in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively, in obviously very limited play. Now compare that to Rosario, who has 0.0 this year just in right field and 1.7 positive in CF and LF. That's a lot of runs difference. And it is backed up by the eye test. Obviously if Arcia is a monster at the plate, it might still make sense for him to be a corner outfielder, at least against RHP, but that is still a work in progress.

 

I'd rather DH Arcia if Plouffe is traded, or just trade Arcia and get some value back (as part of a deal for a catcher or solid reliever). The one difficulty with the latter option is that his current perceived value is likely below his actual expected value, so it would be good to get him more playing time to reestablish his value. If this season continues to head down the toilet I would be fine with him playing some outfield the remainder of the year to do that.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=731&position=OF

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think personally that part of my disappointment with Arcia is that with his age/athleticism, there is no reason that he couldn't be an average (or slightly above) defender in a corner spot.  I get that his bat is his thing, and I get that it's probably more interesting for him to work on, but he would be a far more impactful player if he could play some defense.

[jimbo92107]

 

Hicks looks like he has hit feet under himself now. Some of the disparity in his L/R split appears to be luck--his BABIP left handed is .262 vs. .444 righty.  I doubt that continues. However, he has RH power, not so much from the other side. The walk and strikeout numbers also indicate that his splits should narrow. What is apparent though, at this stage, is RH is his power side. Hicks has 6 homers (5 RH) with twice as many plate appearances against right handed pitching. That would mean that he is 10 times more likely to homer against a lefty.

I predict that Aaron Hicks will continue to improve on both sides. He's a learner, and recently he developed a key mechanical improvement that he has incorporated into his swing from both sides. Stringer is correct that Hicks has eliminated the backward push of his butt that made him an arm swinger. Now he is learning to turn his hip into the pitch with his front leg as the pivot point, allowing his swing to carry with power through the hitting zone.

 

Combined with his new mechanism for timing and compressing his bat angle, Hicks's new lower body power transfer has finally brought some of the power we will be seeing in the future from both sides. However, on the left side his hip action is still too tight, lacking the natural rhythm of his right side. He needs to tuck in his lead hip a little more, so it can pull his hands through, like Adrian Gonzalez does. A higher leg kick would do it, but he also needs to loosen up his hands on the finish.

 

The good news is, repetition will gradually loosen up his lead hip and his hands from the left side. Hicks already has such a good eye at the plate; now he's adding power for when he does choose to swing.

[mudcat14]

 

I predict that Aaron Hicks will continue to improve on both sides. He's a learner, and recently he developed a key mechanical improvement that he has incorporated into his swing from both sides. Stringer is correct that Hicks has eliminated the backward push of his butt that made him an arm swinger. Now he is learning to turn his hip into the pitch with his front leg as the pivot point, allowing his swing to carry with power through the hitting zone.

 

Combined with his new mechanism for timing and compressing his bat angle, Hicks's new lower body power transfer has finally brought some of the power we will be seeing in the future from both sides. However, on the left side his hip action is still too tight, lacking the natural rhythm of his right side. He needs to tuck in his lead hip a little more, so it can pull his hands through, like Adrian Gonzalez does. A higher leg kick would do it, but he also needs to loosen up his hands on the finish.

 

The good news is, repetition will gradually loosen up his lead hip and his hands from the left side. Hicks already has such a good eye at the plate; now he's adding power for when he does choose to swing.

 

Thanks for the fine forensic review of his swing.  Clearly you have a much keener eye for the mechanical details of his approach and have seen reason for encouragement.  About all I could see is that he seems to throw his butt out and extend his arms more from the LH side.  I realize that a balanced or even near balanced split for switch-hitters is not the norm.  It sounds like you and others feel that he is at least trending in that direction.  

[HitInAPinch]

So Hicks is finally reaching his potential and after 204 AB's you want to change him?  That's one of the dimmer ideas I've read here.

[jimbo92107]

 

Thanks for the fine forensic review of his swing.  Clearly you have a much keener eye for the mechanical details of his approach and have seen reason for encouragement.  About all I could see is that he seems to throw his butt out and extend his arms more from the LH side.  I realize that a balanced or even near balanced split for switch-hitters is not the norm.  It sounds like you and others feel that he is at least trending in that direction.  

You're right, he's still got a trace of the "French Mistake" butt push on both sides, but it's gradually going away. From the left side, Hicks mainly needs to draw his front knee up and in a little more to compress the drive leg and get a bit more shoulder turn. That will generate more outward snap of the bat, which will produce more power and a wider spray pattern, with power.

 

The stuff I'm talking about has become standard practice for teaching ball players in Cuba and other places in that area, but it comes from observing power swings dating back all the way to Babe Ruth. Players today don't launch themselves forward the way Ruth and Willie Mays did, but most of their mechanics is being taught where people care about power swings. None of the poor kids growing up in the Carribean wants to hit like Rod Carew; they want to hit like Bryce Harper or Jose Bautista. If you're a 150 lb. 16-year old shortstop that models his swing after Bautista, even without the home runs you're going to get some serious signing money from an American team.

[Zachary]

Has anyone else's phone gotten to the point where you have to continuously fiddle with the charger in the charger port to get it to start charging? It would be like finally getting it to charge and then picking the phone up again.

 

Or your nose finally stops bleeding and 'just to check' you rub your thumb across it and it starts bleeding again.

 

dropping switch hitting again is something that would have to be his decision.