Twins Should Call Up & Platoon Kepler NOW.

[nytwinsfan]

One reason:  The Twins are being crushed by right-handed pitching.  Anecdotally, if you have been watching games, especially the past two games, this is obvious. But the numbers back it up.

 

2015 Twins v. LHP: .261/317/.399 (.716) (6th best OPS in the AL) 

 

2015 Twins v. RHP: .245/.298/.395 (.693)  (13th best OPS in the AL).

 

The strange thing is that most of this difference is coming from one person. That one person is of course, Aaron Hicks, who currently has the following OBSCENE splits.

 

2015 Hicks v. RHP:  .225 .291 .308 (.599)

2015 Hicks v. LHP: .400 .455 .617 (1.071)

 

Take a look a that. Big splits are nothing new to Hicks, although the extent of this year's splits is particularly ludicrous. Other than Hicks, the only other position player with significant splits in favor of hitting lefties is Dozier (.905 OPS v. LHP and .805 OPS v. RHP), and that is still nowhere near Hicks' splits. Yup, every other position player on the 25-man does better, equally well, or almost as well against righties as they do against lefties, but still the team is overall performing significantly worse against RHP. And this is with Sano having ridiculously positive splits in favor of hitting RHP, which is likely based on a SSS and should not be expected to continue for much longer.

 

Now consider Max Kepler, who basically has no splits at AA (.926 OPS v. righties, .934 OPS v. lefties), and in past years has had positive splits against righties (difference of .44 OPS in 2014, a Hicksian .498 in 2013, and .159 in 2012).  You cannot convince me that Max Kepler would not be a huge upgrade over Hicks against right-handed pitching. 

 

To be clear, the argument is to call Kepler up tomorrow, and either send down Shane Robinson, or send down a reliever. Then I would split the outfield among Kepler, Hunter, Rosario, and Hicks, with each playing about 3/4 of the time.  Hicks would sit against the strongest RHPs, while Kepler would probably sit against the strongest LHP, at least until he gets acclimated and shows his metal against weaker lefties.  As for defense, Rosario can cover CF when Hicks is out, as can Kepler from time to time. If the Twins are ahead late in a game that Hicks doesn't start, Hicks can be put in in the 8th or 9th to add extra defense in CF.  In summary, the case for calling up Kepler right now is that there is close to no chance that Kepler performs worse against righties than Hicks has and continues to do, and with the luxury of Rosario's speed, the defensive downgrade in CF is likely to be minor when Hicks doesn't start.

 

The potential objections I foresee to this are as follows:

 

(1) Kepler is not ready.  But if you look at the second half of his season in the notoriously pitcher friendly Fort Myers last year, his 80 or so PAs in the Arizona Fall League, and the season so far in Chattanooga, he has now been hitting remarkably well for over 600 PAs. This is no longer a small sample size. By all accounts his outfield defense is above average in the corner, and at least passable in CF.  The coaches also seem to love him as a player, teammate, and clubhouse presence. And we all know there is a very good chance he gets called up Sept. 1st anyway. Why wait?

 

(2) Chattanooga won the first-half division title and will be in the playoffs, where they will need Kepler.  Ok, while I'm all for being supportive of minor league teams, the Southern League playoffs don't start until mid-Sept., and chances are Kepler will be called up on Sept. 1st anyway. And the Lookouts are 14-20 in the second-half standings, in no position to win their division.  His absence isn't going to make or break their second half. Finally, I think we can all agree that even a marginal benefit for the major league Twins in a playoff race is well worth reducing the the playoff prospects of the Lookouts. With all due respect to the Lookouts, it just is.

 

(3) Hicks needs at bats against RHP.  This is probably the best argument against my proposal. But I still don't buy it. If the Twins were not in a playoff race, this might make sense. But right now Hicks' lack of production from the left-handed side is killing the Twins against righties -- who are almost 2/3 of pitchers they face. And Hicks could still start 1/3 to 2/5 of the games against righties, with Rosario or Hunter taking a break, so that he doesn't get completely rusty against RHP.  And that way he's still starting 2/3 to 3/4 of the games and pinch-hitting or pinch-running in most of the rest.

 

(4) Kepler needs to play every day.  Ideally, yeah. But the Lookouts season will be over relatively soon and most pitchers in the majors are are righties anyway, so Kepler could be starting 2/3 to 3/4 of the days, and pitch-hitting a good deal of the remainder.

 

(5) The Twins could call up Arcia instead.  Maybe two weeks ago I would have considered it, but Arcia is struggling the past two weeks, and unlike Kepler, he has struggled against LHP and constitutes a severe defensive downgrade.

 

(6) Leaving room for Buxton.   Buxton's timetable is pretty fluid, but it seems like he will be starting a rehab assignment in a few days and that extended minor league time is expected. It seems unlikely that Buxton would be ready to rejoin the Twins much before Sept. 1st anyway.

 

The Twins will likely call up Kepler on Sept. 1st, but the same reasons that make it a good idea then make it a good idea NOW.  And none of the reasonable counter-arguments I mention above are particularly persuasive as a reason to delay his callup until Sept. 1st.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oswaldo.

 

Arcia.

[Mike Sixel]

How about both Arcia and Kepler?

 

Cut Robinson and Boyer. Not that hard......not even close.

[DaveW]

 

Oswaldo.

 

Arcia.

Arcia can't hit lefties....

[DaveW]

I also think Kepler needs to be playing everyday.

 

I have to think they can find a guy on the waiver wire who can hit LHP better than Robinson though in the meantime...

[nytwinsfan]

 

Oswaldo.

 

Arcia.

 

I addressed that above. Arcia has struggled the last week or two and unlike Kepler, he would be a huge downgrade in the outfield. With Sano playing DH, there is really isn't much room for Arcia.  That being said, I wouldn't be opposed to calling up Arcia, I just think calling up Kepler is an even better idea, for the reasons explained above.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I also think Kepler needs to be playing everyday.

What about 3/4 of the days? Is that really such a hit to his development that it isn't worth a lot more production out of the outfield against RHP? And as I said, they are going to be calling him up in Sept. probably anyway. So basically 5 or 6 days he otherwise would have started he'd be on the bench available as a pinch hitter. That's not going to make or break his development. Plus there are developmental advantages to being on the major league team, such as Brunansky, mentoring from Hunter (if you believe in that), etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Arcia can't hit lefties....

As the original post stated:

 

2015 Twins v. LHP: .261/317/.399 (.716) (6th best OPS in the AL)

2015 Twins v. RHP: .245/.298/.395 (.693)(13th best OPS in the AL).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I addressed that above. Arcia has struggled the last week or two and unlike Kepler, he would be a huge downgrade in the outfield. With Sano playing DH, there is really isn't much room for Arcia.  That being said, I wouldn't be opposed to calling up Arcia, I just think calling up Kepler is an even better idea, for the reasons explained above.

Well, we already know one thing for sure:

 

Oswaldo Arcia can hit righties and hit them pretty hard.

 

Given Hunter's advanced age and underwhelming defense, starting up a quasi-platoon makes all the sense in the world.

[nytwinsfan]

 

As the original post stated:

 

2015 Twins v. LHP: .261/317/.399 (.716) (6th best OPS in the AL)

2015 Twins v. RHP: .245/.298/.395 (.693)(13th best OPS in the AL).

I know, but if you are choosing between Kepler and Arcia, the fact that Kepler has had better splits against lefties (lately at least) than Arcia is another factor in his favor, because inevitably whichever one you call up is going to have at least some at bats against lefties.  But for me the biggest reasons to take Kepler over Arcia are Arcia's recent struggles and Kepler's superior defense and defensive flexibility.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Well, we already know one thing for sure:

 

Oswaldo Arcia can hit righties and hit them pretty hard.

 

Given Hunter's advanced age and underwhelming defense, starting up a quasi-platoon makes all the sense in the world.

Again, I completely agree, I just would go with Kepler over Arcia in the first instance. If for some reason that is out of the question, I'd agree with calling up Arcia instead.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, I completely agree, I just would go with Kepler over Arcia in the first instance. If for some reason that is out of the question, I'd agree with calling up Arcia instead.

I think it's too early for Kepler. He has only shown success in A+ for half a season and AA this season.

 

As we've seen in the past, calling up promising, but marginal, prospects straight from AA can turn ugly in a hurry.

 

Go with the sure thing against righties and that's Arcia.

[DaveW]

There is pretty much no chance the Twins would play Arcia on a regular basis over Hunter, I wish they would, but it won't happen. This is part of the problem with signing Hunter, there is just way too much history/respect there for the Twins to do the right thing/smart thing.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think it's too early for Kepler. He has only shown success in A+ for half a season and AA this season.

 

As we've seen in the past, calling up promising, but marginal, prospects straight from AA can turn ugly in a hurry.

 

Go with the sure thing against righties and that's Arcia.

 

Arcia is hitting .139/.262/.194 (.456) over the last 10 games.  Kepler is hitting .300/.370/.675 (1.045) over his last 10. Yes, a relatively small sample size, but a bigger sample size than the one "promising, but marginal, prospect[] straight from AA" that you are referring to (i.e., Hicks.). Unless there is someone else you had in mind.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Arcia is hitting .139/.262/.194 (.456) over the last 10 games.  Kepler is hitting .300/.370/.675 (1.045) over his last 10. Yes, a relatively small sample size, but a bigger sample size than the one "promising, but marginal, prospect[] straight from AA" that you are referring to (i.e., Hicks.). Unless there is someone else you had in mind.

I think you're cherry-picking a bit here by using a ten game sample size...

 

Oswaldo Arcia has 596 MLB PAs against RHP with a .807 OPS. Instead of making a decision overly complex, just take the easy option by calling up Arcia and let Max continue to develop at his own pace.

 

Besides, Oswaldo is out of options after this season anyway. He has thumped AAA pitching multiple times. Really, this decision should be as easy as it gets.

[tobi0040]

The Twins will adjust their lineups from time to time based on righty/lefty.  But I have doubts they will ever designate a position to a platoon.

 

The Twins formula is to have a guy on the roster that can play all three OF spots making the minimum.  Hitting is not required.

 

What you get is a guy like Robinson, 143 AB's with a .607 OPS.  Just think, Rosario and Hicks came up playing CF.  Santana was there a good bit last year. Escobar has been there.  I think we have it covered.  We don't need another agile, quick guy on the roster that can play in a pinch.  Robinson on the roster should be enough evidence that we are not going to platoon much of anything.  LF and/or RF right now would be the perfect opportunity.

[DuluthFan]

Comparing minor league numbers to major league numbers without adjusting for level of competition points out the flaw in your comparisons. You need to adjust downward any minor league numbers downward if you want to compare them to major league numbers.

 

And in case you haven't watched a single game this season, Molitor has shown NO tendencies for platooning.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Comparing minor league numbers to major league numbers without adjusting for level of competition points out the flaw in your comparisons. You need to adjust downward any minor league numbers downward if you want to compare them to major league numbers.

 

Really? I had no idea. I understand splits, platooning, and OPS, but it had never occurred to me that the pitching in AAA might be a tad less skilled than that in the majors.

 

Snark aside, I try to assume that everyone on this site has at least a minimal understanding of how baseball works and don't feel the need to remind everyone of obvious assumptions that go into my analysis.  Readers can make their own adjustments for the move from AA to the majors, and obviously if they think a bigger expected adjustment is warranted, that might lead them to a different conclusion. But I certainly don't think it is unreasonable to think that it is likely someone with a .926 OPS against RHP for 350 PA in AA will do better against RHP than someone with a .599 OPS in the majors. Is it a sure thing? Of course not. But a .327 OPS difference is a really really big one.

[nicksaviking]

 

Arcia is hitting .139/.262/.194 (.456) over the last 10 games.  Kepler is hitting .300/.370/.675 (1.045) over his last 10. Yes, a relatively small sample size, but a bigger sample size than the one "promising, but marginal, prospect[] straight from AA" that you are referring to (i.e., Hicks.). Unless there is someone else you had in mind.

 

No matter what people think of Arcia, he had an OPS+ of 100 with spotty playing time as a rookie and 107 with spotty playing time last year.  This guy looks like he can produce if given a fair opportunity.  This is his last option year as well and I sure don't feel comfortable using 2016 spring training to evaluate the direction this club is going to go with him. 

 

Besides, Kepler has been slow to adjust at every level until his promotion to AA this year.  Are we really going to ask this guy to go from Ft. Myers to the MLB and produce in one season?  I don't mind a call up, and I would want him to play regularly, but it seems to me the OP wants him up to help fix the lineup, and I think the chances of Kepler hitting right away at the majors is pretty slim. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

No matter what people think of Arcia, he had an OPS+ of 100 with spotty playing time as a rookie and 107 with spotty playing time last year.  This guy looks like he can produce if given a fair opportunity.  This is his last option year as well and I sure don't feel comfortable using 2016 spring training to evaluate the direction this club is going to go with him. 

 

Besides, Kepler has been slow to adjust at every level until his promotion to AA this year.  Are we really going to ask this guy to go from Ft. Myers to the MLB and produce in one season?  I don't mind a call up, and I would want him to play regularly, but it seems to me the OP wants him up to help fix the lineup, and I think the chances of Kepler hitting right away at the majors is pretty slim. 

 

If DH were open, I would completely agree about Arcia, and honestly, if Kepler is off limits, then I would be for bringing up Arcia.  He is a good option against righties. It is just that his defense is atrocious. He's also in the midst of a slump, and while that is a small sample size, Arcia has shown that when he gets into a funk it affects his mental game. I'd wait for him to start raking against at AAA before calling him up.  And Kepler doesn't have to hit well right away to be an upgrade. He just has to hit above .600 OPS or so against righties. Do i think he can do that right now? Yes, and probably more than a bit more.

[Reider]

The Blue Jays dumped Danny Valencia after all of their trade deadline acquisitions and the Athletics quickly claimed him. He's hitting .296 avg this year (.279 vs righties .316 vs lefties). He is also batting .500 with the bases loaded this year. He wasn't just a back up at 3rd base, he was playing the outfield and filling in at other infield positions.

 

I'm not upset that the Twins didn't claim him. In fact, I'm not even suggesting that the Twins should have seriously considered claiming him. That's none of my business. However, how cool would it have been if Valencia gets cut Sunday night, wakes up Monday morning, drives to the Rogers center, puts on a Twins Jersey (again) and proceeds to take out his frustrations on David Price?

 

Not sayin', just sayin'.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If DH were open, I would completely agree about Arcia, and honestly, if Kepler is off limits, then I would be for bringing up Arcia. He is a good option against righties. It is just that his defense is atrocious. He's also in the midst of a slump, and while that is a small sample size, Arcia has shown that when he gets into a funk it affects his mental game. I'd wait for him to start raking against at AAA before calling him up. And Kepler doesn't have to hit well right away to be an upgrade. He just has to hit above .600 OPS or so against righties. Do i think he can do that right now? Yes, and probably more than a bit more.

The thing is... He was raking. He was destroying AAA pitching for 3-4 weeks before the ten game slump.

 

And yes, Arcia's defense is terrible but if a team OPSing under .700 against righties can't find roster space for a 24 year old that hits them at over an .800 clip, I don't know what to say.

[USAFChief]

Would it be fair to say that either one of the two would help more than Robinson?

 

That it is confounding that a team in contention would call up neither?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would it be fair to say that either one of the two would help more than Robinson?

That it is confounding that a team in contention would call up neither?

I'm not sure Kepler would outperform Robinson and Max is not a centerfielder so that's a non-issue.

 

Arcia would outperform Shane.

 

I believe this is a pretty clear cut case of KISS. Kepler is an intriguing, though unestablished, prospect. He's having a good season and is only in AA. He's emerging as a potential Top 100 guy but needs his reps to see where he's really at and whether he's ready for a promotion (he had a high BABIP early in the season but seems to be adjusting moderately well once the luck well ran dry).

 

On the other hand, we have a defensively flawed, swing from his heels but hit it a hell of a long way, kill RHP bat in Oswaldo Arcia. He's out of options this season. He has repeatedly mashed AAA pitching to the point it's hard to argue he's actually learning anything down there anymore.

 

If Oswaldo is going to advance as a hitter, it will be under Bruno's tutelage in Minnesota against the best pitching in the world. In the meantime, the Twins will just have to suffer with his .800 OPS against RHP. Hopefully that number will climb more toward 1.000 in the coming years because I just can't see how the Twins could cope with his defense if he's hitting at only an .800 clip.

[Craig Arko]

I'd say Arcia now for the 8th reliever and Kepler in September.

[drjim]

 

Would it be fair to say that either one of the two would help more than Robinson?

That it is confounding that a team in contention would call up neither?

 

Not fair. Not confounding.

 

Kepler won't do much against mlb pitching, and Arcia brings nothing to the table but his bat, and I would bet on the production of the majority of the season over a brief hot streak a couple of weeks ago.

 

If there was space at DH I would say what the hell, but there's not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What I don't understand is why Arcia's defense matters.

 

Hunter is bad in right. Arcia can take his place occasionally and nothing is lost defensively while the offense improves quite a bit against RHP.

 

The Twins have two CF on the roster right now so having a third in Robinson is a waste of space.

 

How many close games have the Twins had in the past month and how much could an .800 OPS guy against RHP have helped them in those situations?

 

Rotating Arcia into the roster a couple of times a week is not going to kill the team's defense. Roll him out there when Pelfrey or Gibson starts. Big deal.

[Boom Boom]

What I don't understand is why Arcia's defense matters.

 

Hunter is bad in right. Arcia can take his place occasionally and nothing is lost defensively while the offense improves quite a bit against RHP.

 

The Twins have two CF on the roster right now so having a third in Robinson is a waste of space.

 

How many close games have the Twins had in the past month and how much could an .800 OPS guy against RHP have helped them in those situations?

 

Rotating Arcia into the roster a couple of times a week is not going to kill the team's defense. Roll him out there when Pelfrey or Gibson starts. Big deal.

I agree with everything you're saying, but the Twins don't like platoons and don't like asking guys to play multiple positions unless they're utility players.

 

I thought it was just a Gardy thing, but apparently it's also a Molly thing. They like making lineup cards on autopilot. Nobody is going to tell Hunter he's sitting in favor of Arcia.

[tobi0040]

Agree on all fronts.  We have one guy that plays CF and three others besides Robinson that can fill in.  You bring up Arcia to spell Hunter against righties.  Heck, Mauer has an OPS of .709 against righties.  Options are available.

 

Here I thought this unreasonable fear of not having a guy that can play a position in the case of an emergency was a Gardy thing.  The common denominator is Terry Ryan.

[dbminn]

If you believe the Twins are in contention with the Blue Jays and Orioles for a wild card spot, bring up Arcia. Otherwise, make him earn his chance for now. (He can still come up in September to try to prove himself one last time.)

 

Kepler is not a "marginal" prospect. He's easily top five in the Twins organization and has the tools to become a fine major league player. He puts the ball in play with authority, strikes out very little and is a capable OF. He's just not ready. Let Kepler continue through the minor leagues for now... along with Buxton.