Article: They Couldn’t. Could They…?

[howeda7]

If they take Nolasco, I would do it. Then you can either flip Shields in the off-season, or potentially Hughes or Santana for a C or SS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, the Blue Jays had to designated lefty Felix Doubront for assignment to clear a roster spot for Tulo, but I don't see a corresponding move for Hawkins. I take that as, Hawkins was added to make the trade balance out somehow.

Tulo took Reyes spot. Hawkins takes Doubront's.

[tobi0040]

The Padres have been a little crazy lately, but I doubt they view Shields as such a burden right now that they are going to effectively swap him for Nolasco, dumping him to avoid paying him 3-33 (even with a prospect attached)

 

For one, it is the same GM that signed this deal like six months ago.  People don't typically like to admit they were wrong that quickly, especially since he has a sub 4.00 ERA.

 

If that really was an offer, I don't know how the Twins would not take a guy that has averaged 3.75 WAR a season the last four years for Nolasco.  Just doesn't seem realistic, even if you accept that he is going to decline each year.   When the alternative is Nolasco just about anything looks like a million bucks.I would take that deal in a heartbeat assuming you keep your top 8 prospects or so.  Then I would move either May or Gibson for the best catcher that is 6-12 months away or who is in a rookie deal.  Move Pelfrey to the pen and tell Duensing to take a hike.

 

His numbers this year, 133.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 9.97 k/9, 3.16 BB/9.

 

He has had a start with 7 ER and two with 5 ER.  Said another way, he has been a sub 3.00 pitcher in 19 of his 22 starts.

 

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Edited July 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[goulik]

Today is repeat myself day... I said it before, TR tends to do what he says he is going to do. He states we need more starting pitching in the off season, that means he will sign someone.

 

Earlier this week, he made a statement about trying to make a trade. I am positive a trade will happen, possibly more than one. Feel free to Bash me hard if it does not happen. I am making a 100% in call on this one. Fairly confident the padres will be one of those partners but don't hold me too accountable if it is a trade with someone else instead...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Padres have been a little crazy lately, but I doubt they view Shields as such a burden right now that they are going to effectively swap him for Nolasco, dumping him to avoid paying him 3-33 (even with a prospect attached)

 

For one, it is the same GM that signed this deal like six months ago.  People don't typically like to admit they were wrong that quickly, especially since he has a sub 4.00 ERA.

 

If that really was an offer, I don't know how the Twins would not take a guy that has averaged 3.75 WAR a season the last four years for Nolasco.  Just doesn't seem realistic, even if you accept that he is going to decline each year.   When the alternative is Nolasco just about anything looks like a million bucks.I would take that deal in a heartbeat assuming you keep your top 8 prospects or so.  Then I would move either May or Gibson for the best catcher that is 6-12 months away or who is in a rookie deal.  Move Pelfrey to the pen and tell Duensing to take a hike.

 

His numbers this year, 133.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 9.97 k/9, 3.16 BB/9.

 

He has had a start with 7 ER and two with 5 ER.  Said another way, he has been a sub 3.00 pitcher in 19 of his 22 starts.

This. I don't see why the Padres would even consider this deal.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Tulo took Reyes spot. Hawkins takes Doubront's.

Well, that's not what the online stories have said.  But it certainly makes a lot more sense.

 

Thanks!

[Pardon My Dinger]

Nolasco for Shields...good one.

[tobi0040]

 

Today is repeat myself day... I said it before, TR tends to do what he says he is going to do. He states we need more starting pitching in the off season, that means he will sign someone.

Earlier this week, he made a statement about trying to make a trade. I am positive a trade will happen, possibly more than one. Feel free to Bash me hard if it does not happen. I am making a 100% in call on this one. Fairly confident the padres will be one of those partners but don't hold me too accountable if it is a trade with someone else instead...

 

After signing Nolasco and Santana is successive off-seasons...I would be shocked if we signed another starter.  Especially since you have the most talented guy in our system dominating AA and AAA and May rotting in the pen.

 

My prediction, Terry Ryan will likely make one trade, after July 31.  It will be a reliever who is between 37 and 45, who throws about 89.  Some guy that has a 3.99 ERA and 5.10 FIP.  His BABIP against will be .220 versus his career .300.

 

What would I do if I was the Twins.  I would either address the pen, SS or C long term via trades. If not I would make some moves internally. Trade for Beniot if the price is reasonable.   Polanco is my SS.  Pelfrey is in the pen, May is in the rotation for now.  Berrios is next in line.  Move up a reliever from AAA.

 

Yesterday, Dick said that the Royals were below .500 this time last year.  That doesn't mean go all in for me, but I think we have moves internally that make us better. No reason to wait.

 

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't know. I think a team would accept Nolasco in a trade if we eat his entire salary. (Only half tongue in cheek). Of course maybe that's what Ryan is doing and everyone is then immediately hanging up on him?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The Padres have been a little crazy lately, but I doubt they view Shields as such a burden right now that they are going to effectively swap him for Nolasco, dumping him to avoid paying him 3-33 (even with a prospect attached)

 

For one, it is the same GM that signed this deal like six months ago.  People don't typically like to admit they were wrong that quickly, especially since he has a sub 4.00 ERA.

 

If that really was an offer, I don't know how the Twins would not take a guy that has averaged 3.75 WAR a season the last four years for Nolasco.  Just doesn't seem realistic, even if you accept that he is going to decline each year.   When the alternative is Nolasco just about anything looks like a million bucks.I would take that deal in a heartbeat assuming you keep your top 8 prospects or so.  Then I would move either May or Gibson for the best catcher that is 6-12 months away or who is in a rookie deal.  Move Pelfrey to the pen and tell Duensing to take a hike.

 

His numbers this year, 133.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 9.97 k/9, 3.16 BB/9.

 

He has had a start with 7 ER and two with 5 ER.  Said another way, he has been a sub 3.00 pitcher in 19 of his 22 starts.

 

.

 

Those numbers are pretty misleading.  Take a look at what he's done away from PetCo--71.2 IP, 4.90 ERA, opposing batters are OPS'ing .816 off him (which is better than Tulowitzki when he's not at Coors), 9.42 k/9, 3.27 bb/9, and a 4.19 FIP.

 

Then look at his trends this year--his k/9 has gone down every month, from 11.9 to 8.  His bb/9 has gone up from 2.61, to 4.

 

You also can't play the "take away x statistic game" without citing the other side.  For example, take away his two starts where he gave up 0 ER, and he's been a 4.14 ERA pitcher in 20 starts.

 

Finally, unless the Padres are taking back Nolasco AND another pitcher, he simply adds to our SP log jam next year, where two out of May/Berrios/Duffey can't start.  Is he better than those guys?  Probably, but not at a 21 million dollar price tag, which is what his contract is each of the next 3 years (which also makes his contract, assuming no Nolasco, a 3 year, 39M one, not 3 years, 33M).

 

In short, I'll trade for Shields, but only if the Padres take back Nolasco, do not get Kepler/Stewart/Berrios/Polanco in return, and we get Norris and/or a reliever not named Benoit.  In other words, if I were Twins GM, I wouldn't get him, because the Padres I'm sure would not take what I would offer, and I'd be a-ok with that.

[WyoTwin]

nater79a

Yesterday, 11:03 PM

 

If anybody is needing something from "Big Game" James, it's the Twins right now! Searching for a win...any win.

 

I totally agree! The Twins could use a spark. If Nolasco gets Cy Young votes for SD good for him. I never want to wish someone ill will.

[tobi0040]

 

Those numbers are pretty misleading.  Take a look at what he's done away from PetCo--71.2 IP, 4.90 ERA, opposing batters are OPS'ing .816 off him (which is better than Tulowitzki when he's not at Coors), 9.42 k/9, 3.27 bb/9, and a 4.19 FIP.

 

Then look at his trends this year--his k/9 has gone down every month, from 11.9 to 8.  His bb/9 has gone up from 2.61, to 4.

 

You also can't play the "take away x statistic game" without citing the other side.  For example, take away his two starts where he gave up 0 ER, and he's been a 4.14 ERA pitcher in 20 starts.

 

Finally, unless the Padres are taking back Nolasco AND another pitcher, he simply adds to our SP log jam next year, where two out of May/Berrios/Duffey can't start.  Is he better than those guys?  Probably, but not at a 21 million dollar price tag, which is what his contract is each of the next 3 years (which also makes his contract, assuming no Nolasco, a 3 year, 39M one, not 3 years, 33M).

 

In short, I'll trade for Shields, but only if the Padres take back Nolasco, do not get Kepler/Stewart/Berrios/Polanco in return, and we get Norris and/or a reliever not named Benoit.  In other words, if I were Twins GM, I wouldn't get him, because the Padres I'm sure would not take what I would offer, and I'd be a-ok with that.

 

Admittedly, I didn't look at his home/road splits or trends.

 

But if we step back, he is "trending" at 8 K per 9.  No starter in our rotation right now has one with a 7 handle on it.

 

And in the context of who we are getting, Shields 4.14 ERA if you take out his best two starts should be compared against Nolasco's, who is at 20 IP and 18 ER when you go through the same exercise.

 

Ultimately I totally respect your opinion here.  Not in love with Shields enough to block anyone.  You would take him for free but realize that won't happen. 

 

The frustrating thing for me the last few days is this world in which Nolasco is going to be in a trade for an actual average to good player, Reyes, Shields, etc. Someone who a team could at least be intrigued by talking yourself into about well...they were good 1,2, years ago or whatever.

Edited July 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[goulik]

After signing Nolasco and Santana is successive off-seasons...I would be shocked if we signed another starter.  Especially since you have the most talented guy in our system dominating AA and AAA and May rotting in the pen

Your misunderstanding my statement. Ryan says at the beginning of the 2013 offseason he's trying to get a starter and he signs Nolasco and Hughes. The 2014 offseason begins and again he says he's trying to sign pitching and goes out to sign Santana. Now he says he's gonna make a trade if possible, I believe he will do it because he does what he says. That does not mean we will all like it...

[nicksaviking]

 

Your misunderstanding my statement. Ryan says at the beginning of the 2013 offseason he's trying to get a starter and he signs Nolasco and Hughes. The 2014 offseason begins and again he says he's trying to sign pitching and goes out to sign Santana. Now he says he's gonna make a trade if possible, I believe he will do it because he does what he says. That does not mean we will all like it...

 

Didn't Ryan say that he'll only make a trade if it's not forced? That doesn't sound like an aggressive trade stance.  Also, your last sentence makes me think if the trade is say for Fernando Rodney, you're still going to champion Ryan as making a trade to satisfy his "promise".

[jimmer]

 

Didn't Ryan say that he'll only make a trade if it's not forced? That doesn't sound like an aggressive trade stance.  Also, your last sentence makes me think if the trade is say for Fernando Rodney, you're still going to champion Ryan as making a trade to satisfy his "promise".

remember the offseason before the 2013 season when he told the season ticket holders and possible season ticket holders in their annual banquet that he would do everything possible to significantly improve the rotation for 2013 and he went and got Worley, Pelfrey and Correia?  Man of his word.

[goulik]

remember the offseason before the 2013 season when he told the season ticket holders and possible season ticket holders in their annual banquet that he would do everything possible to significantly improve the rotation for 2013 and he went and got Worley, Pelfrey and Correia?  Man of his word.

Exactly what I'm saying. My complaint about Ryan isn't that he doesn't make moves and I do like that when he says he's working on something, he is working on something. But often his moves are underwhelming.

Eg. A week + ago we were dreaming of tulo and if we ended up with Reyes we would be underwhelmed but that is the likeliest way he will do this trade thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Reyes? We might be lucky to get Dennys Reyes at this point.

[jimmer]

 

Exactly what I'm saying. My complaint about Ryan isn't that he doesn't make moves and I do like that when he says he's working on something, he is working on something. But often his moves are underwhelming.
Eg. A week + ago we were dreaming of tulo and if we ended up with Reyes we would be underwhelmed but that is the likeliest way he will do this trade thing.

I'd argue that getting those three pitchers (two coming off injury and/or surgery, one not posting an ERA in the NL under 4.18 in three previous seasons, and all of them cheap), didn't come close to qualifying as doing everything he could to significantly improve the 2013 rotation.  That's scrape the bottom of the barrel type shopping that, extremely predictably, did not come close to working out.  

Edited July 31, 2015 by jimmer