Top 50 prospects

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins system is entering a new era as the youth movement is now officially underway. Players like May and Rosario have graduated already. Some players like Sano and Buxton will be leaving this list due to graduation in the coming months. It is important to get a glimpse of the state of the system going forward as the Twins are now entering a time of contention (and hopefully victory) over the next few years. The system is still rich, but clearly there are areas of concern already present.
 

This is the final installment of my mid-season prospect update. Late September will bring the final list for the year.

1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93
2015 status: Buxton is basically done with minor league baseball. He got injured again, but should be back with the Twins in September. ETA: already arrived.
 

2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93
2015 status: Has obliterated the baseball after his promotion to the Twins. He is also done with minor league baseball. Sano will be used as the DH primarily for the rest of this year, but the Twins should be shopping Trevor Plouffe in the offseason. ETA: already arrived.
 

3. Jose Berrios: RHS, 5-27-94
2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.
 

4. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93
2015 status: Promoted to the Twins for one game and then moved to Rochester from Chattanooga. His bat is ready, not he just needs to get his SS defense up to acceptable standards. ETA: 2015.
 

5. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93
2015 status: In the midst of a breakout season that is really pushing the envelope for the Twins. I would like to see a move up to AAA and then a September call up. Outstanding to see Kepler develop in this way this year. Could be trade bait. ETA: September 2015, or 2016 after Twins roster shakeup in offseason.
 

6. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95
2015 status: The youngster struggled offensively initially at Cedar Rapids, but is really hitting his stride. Defense is great. ETA: 2019.
 

7. Tyler Jay: LHR, 4-19-94
2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017.
 

8. Stephen Gonsalves: LHS, 7-8-94.
2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018.
 

9. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91
2015 status: He is having a great season. Homers and strikeouts abound, but he is also hitting a bit better overall and has an .899 OPS. Also trade bait. ETA: September 2015 for some fun homers, or else 2016 after some AAA time.
 

10. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96
2015 status: Getting moved to Elizabethon will be a bit of a challenge initially, but he should be fine. He could have a monster season. ETA: 2020.
 

11. Alex Meyer: RHS, 1-3-90
2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.

12. Taylor Rogers: LHS, 12-17-90
2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.

13. Chih-Wei Hu: RHS, 11-4-93
2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.

14. Kohl Stewart: RHS, 10-7-94
2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.

15. Tyler Duffey: RHS, 12-27-90
2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.

16. Lewin Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96
2015 status: Getting used to playing in the States. Born on the day I got my driver's license. Taking it slow, obviously, but Diaz is about as fun as any prospect to watch in anticipation for the rest of the year. ETA: 2021.

17. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95
2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.

18. Brandon Peterson: RHR, 9-23-91
2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.

19. Wandy Javier: SS, 12-29-98
2015 status: Just signed by the Twins to a $4 million bonus, the SS could top this list within two years. Looks like a good all-around player, both offensively and defensively. ETA: 2022.

20. Travis Harrison: LF/RF, 10-17-92
2015 status: Harrison is a good all-around hitter, who is fully in the OF this year. The power still has not come, however, and this is going to force him down the list. Harrison is definitely someone the Twins should try to shop in some package in the offseason, or if they really want to trade for a bullpen arm for the stretch run in 2015. ETA: September 2016.

21. Zach Jones: RHR, 12-4-90
2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and was sent to Fort Myers. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.

22. Nick Burdi: RHR, 1-19-93
2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.

23. Levi Michael: 2B, 2-9-91
2015 status: Michael has battled an injury again this season. When actually healthy, he is good. He has an .807 OPS for Chattanooga this year and is back to stealing bases. He is slugging substantially more this year, which is interesting. Given everyone above him, Michael is in Harrison's camp as trade material. ETA: September 2016.

24. Travis Blankenhorn: 3B, 8-3-96
2015 status: Drafted in the third round, the Twins sent Blankenhorn to the GCL. Nice pick, good bat. ETA: 2020.

25. Jake Reed: RHR, 9-29-92
2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.

26. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B/CF, 2-28-92
2015 status: Promoted to Chattanooga after an OK start in Fort Myers. He always threatens to push that OPS over .700 . . . time will tell. Great speed. Adding CF to his resume is interesting. Good end up being a more athletic and bigger version of Eduardo Escobar. Still relatively young. ETA: September 2016.

27. Felix Jorge: RHS, 1-2-94
2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.

28. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90
2015 status: Hicks was smashing the ball in Chattanooga before getting injured. He has been up and down my lists over the past few years now. ETA: September 2016.

29. JT Chargois: RHR, 12-3-90
2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.

30. Alex Robinson: LHR, 8-11-94
2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.

31. Michael Cederoth: RHP, 11-25-92.
2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.

32. Mat Batts: LHS, 7-6-91
2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.

33. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93
2015 status: Has hit a bit of a snag with his first full season, but the steals and defense are intriguing enough. He also draws a good amount of walks. Only grounded into one double play all year, which is crazy. ETA: 2018.

34. Cameron Booser: LHR, 5-4-92
2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.

35. Trevor Hildenberger: RHR, 12-15-90
2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.

36. Aaron Slegers: RHS, 9-4-92
2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.

37. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94
2015 status: Slow to develop bat at Fort Myers, but that should be expected. He is inching toward similar offensive numbers in 2015 as he had in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but the stolen bases have exploded. ETA: 2017 if the Twins want a defensive shortstop, otherwise 2018.

38. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91
2015 status: As expected, the bat is bad in AA. He is a very good defensive catcher, however. A .566 OPS in AA is a bit scary and the Twins have an immediate hole at the catcher position. ETA: September 2016.

39. John Curtiss: RHS, 4-5-93
2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.

40. Alexis Tapia: RHS, 8-10-95
2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.

41. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91
2015 status: Started very slowly offensively, but is now coming around. Would like to see him pushed to AA in August to test his bat a little bit and get him ready for a full season of AA in 2016. ETA: 2017.

42. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90
2015 status: Ortiz was hitting really well to start the year in AAA, then cooled off as he was moved to CF. Maybe the two are unrelated, but I think that it is a good thing for Ortiz to add CF to his resume. The Twins should definitely be interested in his 4th OF capability if they are going to be trading some of their OF depth (Kepler, Walker, Harrison). Otherwise, Ortiz is trade bait to add in a package. ETA: would be September 2015 in about any other organization. Here, 2016.

43. James Beresford: 2B/IF, 1-19-89
2015 status: Beresford is totally consistent. There is basically no steadier a bat in the system. The Twins know how Beresford will produce offensively in the big leagues if they want him there. The issue for him is that he needs to move beyond being a second baseman. His future anywhere is going to be as a utility infielder, much like Ortiz's future is as a 4th OF. ETA: September 2015 wouldn't be totally out of the question if the Twins have 40-man space. Otherwise 2016 somewhere in MLB.

44. Jermaine Palacios: SS/IF, 7-19-96
2015 status: Palacios is pounding GCL pitching right now after a very solid 2014 season in the DSL. Currently, he is quite slight, measuring six feet tall while being listed at under 150 pounds. He might not outgrow SS, so there is a decent chance that he sticks there. Big sleeper prospect right now. ETA: 2021.

45. Zach Granite: CF/LF, 9-17-92
2015 status: Granite dominated in Cedar Rapids and was quickly promoted to Fort Myers. He is struggling some there, but should get his 2015 A+ numbers to match his 2014 A numbers. He has very good speed and some decent plate discipline. ETA: 2018.

46. Alex Wimmers: RHS, 11-1-88
2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.

47. Randy Rosario: LHS, 5-18-94
2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.

48. Rafael Valera: 2B/3B/SS, 8-15-94
2015 status: Valera is another sleeper prospect. The Twins sent Valera to Cedar Rapids this year after a decent season in the GCL in 2014. Good plate discipline and speed. ETA: 2019.

49. Todd Van Steensel: RHR, 1-14-91
2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.

50. Ryan O'Rourke: LHR, 4-30-88
2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.
 

Honorable Mention: Luke Bard, Max Murphy, Trey Vavra, DJ Baxendale, Brian Navarreto, Zach Larson, Trey Cabbage, Tyler Kuresa, Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, LaMonte Wade, Jason Wheeler, Tim Shibuya, Brett Lee, Matthew Summers

Conclusion: The system has now peaked. Losing the second-round pick Kyle Cody hurts as well. Including the honorable mentions, though, the Twins here have 70 players who could make it to the show.

[nytwinsfan]

As the Vice President of the Alex Swim fan club, I must object. Otherwise, great list, which I pretty much agree with.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I have to admit this is harder than it looks.  I'm working on my own list (only to 30).  It's fairly easy in the top 10-20 or so, but once it starts to grow, it really gets difficult.  Good list.

[USAFChief]

Once you remove Sano and Buxton, this list is pretty weak, IMO.  

[USMCTwin]

I feel like outside of Berrios it lacks what feels like sure-fire star power, but there appears to be numerous lottery ticket types that could really break through (or go bust of course). 

 

Thanks for the list Shane!

[Shane Wahl]

 

Once you remove Sano and Buxton, this list is pretty weak, IMO.  

 

Or at least it could be pretty weak. Berrios is still legit and Polanco has only some defense issues to work through. Kepler will be ready. But yeah . . . all the more reason to try to trade for younger players where you can. Fien should have been traded last year . . .now ?? Plouffe has likely hit his limit as a player. He is good, but good players have to go too. Already missed the boat on Pelfrey. They better shop Milone immediately.

 

These players can be packaged with minor leaguers in exchange for young talent below AA ball.

[drjim]

 

Once you remove Sano and Buxton, this list is pretty weak, IMO.  

 

Buxton will likely be prospect eligible at the end of the season so it will be a little skewed, but I think this will still end up being around a top 10 farm system.

 

Berrios is a top 20ish guy and they will have 3-5 guys in the 50-100 range. Less impact talent than the past couple of years but some solid players at the top followed by real depth. It would help if some of the guys finished strong in the final month and a half.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll take the under on 5 guys in the top 100 if Sano is not eligible.

 

Buxton

Berrios

 

??? marks
Gordon

Jay (purely on draft location, there won't be much data)

Kepler (I don't think so)

 

[drjim]

 

I'll take the under on 5 guys in the top 100 if Sano is not eligible.

 

Buxton

Berrios

 

??? marks
Gordon

Jay (purely on draft location, there won't be much data)

Kepler (I don't think so)

 

Polanco and Gordon are virtual locks, Jay seem likely. Kepler really good chance if he rebounds from injury. 5th would have to be someone sneaking in - either Stewart or Gonsalves.

 

I would also take the under for 5, but over for 3. That's why I wrote that range.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Polanco and Gordon are virtual locks, Jay seem likely. Kepler really good chance if he rebounds from injury. 5th would have to be someone sneaking in - either Stewart or Gonsalves.

 

I would also take the under for 5, but over for 3. That's why I wrote that range.

 

Fair.......I'd bet 3.5 would be the line....not sure what side I'd take w/o looking at all the other teams, which I won't be doing....

[Rosterman]

Kepler is interesting. As a first baseman, would he be Dougie light? As an outfielder, would he punch enouh for the corners. We imagien he is blocked in center. He is not necessarily an idea designated hitter candidate. Will he put the ball in play, move runners around, advance bases, work the count. Will he become a bigger force and take charge at first base come 2018 when Mauer is...somewhere.

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, this list took a ton of work, thank you.

[Shane Wahl]

Keep your eye on Jermaine Palacios.

[twinsfanstreif]

Once you remove Sano and Buxton, this list is pretty weak, IMO.

 

Not up to the standard we're used to for sure but minus Buxton and Sano this is actually a middle of the road farm system which is pretty good considering we've graduated a bunch of guys recently. The Jay pick is really hurting us as of now and Stewart is disappointing (although I think he is ranked low on this) so that's 2 top 6 picks that are underperforming. We should get used to this though because we're not gonna have as many top 10 picks from now on and it's really hard to build a very good farm system without those

[howieramone2]

Not up to the standard we're used to for sure but minus Buxton and Sano this is actually a middle of the road farm system which is pretty good considering we've graduated a bunch of guys recently. The Jay pick is really hurting us as of now and Stewart is disappointing (although I think he is ranked low on this) so that's 2 top 6 picks that are underperforming. We should get used to this though because we're not gonna have as many top 10 picks from now on and it's really hard to build a very good farm system without those

Stewart and Jay are not underperforming, they are merely not meeting fan board expectations. It's not the same thing.

[TheLeviathan]

Stewart and Jay are not underperforming, they are merely not meeting fan board expectations. It's not the same thing.

Stewarts slide down nearly every national ranking seems to differ from this portrayal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I'd say if this is a weak system (outside the top 2) then you're probably being a bit unrealistic.  Most teams I think would be hurting by those standards.

 

That said, I have to think Kepler is a top 100 prospect this winter.  He's 22 and having an impressive season in AA showing all of those tools.  He may not be a CF, but he can be a pretty good corner OF defensively with a bat that plays above average. 

[jimbo92107]

I'm pulling for Alex Wimmers. He's got the brain of a major league pitcher, and now he's got a healthy elbow. I'd love it if this guy was fully back from TJ and mowing 'em down in the minors next season.

[nytwinsfan]

Kepler is interesting. As a first baseman, would he be Dougie light? As an outfielder, would he punch enouh for the corners. We imagien he is blocked in center. He is not necessarily an idea designated hitter candidate. Will he put the ball in play, move runners around, advance bases, work the count. Will he become a bigger force and take charge at first base come 2018 when Mauer is...somewhere.

I don't understand this. If he doesn't have enough power for outfield, he certainly does not have enough power for 1B. He is definitely a corner outfielder, but has the ability to play 1B on Mauer's days off.

[drjim]

 

Stewarts slide down nearly every national ranking seems to differ from this portrayal.

 

Technically he hasn't really slid, just never took the next step.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Technically he hasn't really slid, just never took the next step.

 

Ok, maybe I'm wrong....but hasn't he both slid down the overall MLB-wide rankings and our BA team rankings?

[drjim]

 

Ok, maybe I'm wrong....but hasn't he both slid down the overall MLB-wide rankings and our BA team rankings?

 

Draft year he might have snuck in top 100 but wasn't last year.

 

He'll be more or less the same ranking as has been on the Twins, give or take a spot. Which of course means guys have passed him, but he hasn't collapsed. But he also hasn't performed how you would want a top 4 pick to perform. That said he still is not that far from being the best pitcher, crazily enough, from that first round.

 

It is another discussion but I still think we should show some patience. His k rate is obviously atrocious, but he is doing some things (gb rate) extremely well and he was probably promoted more aggressively than he should have been. His background is also much less polished than the typical top prep arms when they enter pro ball. There is still something here.

[TheLeviathan]

Oh I'm not giving up on him or suggesting he's collapsed or is a bust, but this isn't just crazy fan expectations either.  I think it's fair to say his performance hasn't matched hopes or expectations so far.

[twinsfanstreif]

Stewart and Jay are not underperforming, they are merely not meeting fan board expectations. It's not the same thing.

Jay is absolutely underperforming, he has an 8+ era so far, that's bad for any prospect much less one who was touted as a ML ready arm. I can see your point on Stewart although he has slipped in some rankings. If he doesn't get his Ks up he might really only be a #4 or #5 guy, that's pretty disappointing for the #4 overall pick

[drjim]

ERAs in 6 inning debut samples. Good talk.

[drjim]

 

Oh I'm not giving up on him or suggesting he's collapsed or is a bust, but this isn't just crazy fan expectations either.  I think it's fair to say his performance hasn't matched hopes or expectations so far.

 

It hasn't, that was certainly an aggressive point you were responding to.

 

I was more thinking out loud on the keyboard when it comes to Stewart and using your response as the starting point.