Trade Target Joaquin Benoit

[Cap'n Piranha]

The problem is you intentionally picked 2010 to get the answer you wanted. If you picked 2011 there is suddenly no trend. (Or a VERY minimal one) He bounces around a bit and his numbers are down just a bit, but not any kind of significant decline.

 

He has an unsustainable ERA and BABIP, that's true. The rest of your argument is pretty bogus.

Let me get this straight--by expanding my sample size I'm cherry picking?

 

And since my argument is that his low BABIP is unsustainable, meaning his ERA is likely to regress towards his FIP, which is a bottom quartile number, I'd say your admission that his ERA and BABIP are unsustainable indicates you agree with me.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Let me get this straight--by expanding my sample size I'm cherry picking?

And since my argument is that his low BABIP is unsustainable, meaning his ERA is likely to regress towards his FIP, which is a bottom quartile number, I'd say your admission that his ERA and BABIP are unsustainable indicates you agree with me.

 

You expanded your sample size just enough to make your argument.  Why not 2009?  2005?  If it's a simple matter of "more=better" then your argument should stay valid if you keep going right?  But you just, by pure random luck, picked his career year and thought that was sufficient?

 

Yeah, right.  I agree that he won't be as good as he has been in all likelihood, but even then he'd still be the best thing in our bullpen after Perkins by a hefty margin.

[Vanimal46]

Realistically the Twins need a guy like him in the bullpen for the next 3 months. The real question is can he be an upgrade over our current options? I believe he could. If Pelfrey's value is a low level flyer prospect, I have to imagine Benoit's is similar: even potentially a PTBNL & pick up the check for 2015. It would be nice to have a veteran with some playoff experience if they were able to clinch a spot. 22 1/3 IP - 2.82 ERA - 0.985 WHIP - 2.0 BB/9 - 10.9 K/9 - last played in 2013 with Detroit FWII...

 

I have no idea why any of the AAA pitchers haven't received a call up yet. The FO clearly has trust issues/ inside knowledge that we don't know about. It seems like they're set on trying to find someone outside of the organization to fix the problem.

[drjim]

Benoit is certainly declining, but you are only on the hook for the next three months. He would be no worse than the 2nd righty in the pen. I don't see the problem.

 

Suggesting they would be better with Achter, Tonkin or especially Oliveros seems laughable.

[Shane Wahl]

There are weird things being said around here lately.

 

You really underestimate Escobar's value. He should get more than half a year of a setup guy.

 

Escobar has very limited value. His bat is only acceptable because he can play 4 positions, some of them above average.

[Shane Wahl]

 

That link doesn't address Benoit at all.  I expect it just means they don't want a bunch of low-level lotto tickets for Upton, Kennedy, Kimbrel, etc.  Not really an unusual stance to take.

 

A low-level lotto ticket might still be perfectly acceptable for a middle reliever, though.

 

No it doesn't address Benoit, but it addresses the overall goal they have at the damn deadline!

[Shane Wahl]

If you guys can find a better trade candidate than Benoit for some redundant Twins player(s) then go ahead.

 

I know that Casey Fien looks done and I don't know if I will ever trust that Boyer's next appearance won't be the one that turns that all south . . . and then there is Graham, who is actually still a mystery given pretty consistent low-leverage usage.

[drjim]

There are weird things being said around here lately.

 

 

Escobar has very limited value. His bat is only acceptable because he can play 4 positions, some of them above average.

Ok fine, limited value relative to an above average regular, but not limited value relative to half a year of a setup guy past his peak.

 

I would love to make trades with you.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Ok fine, limited value relative to an above average regular, but not limited value relative to half a year of a setup guy past his peak.

I would love to make trades with you.

 

I would trade Eduardo Escobar for Benoit in a heartbeat if the Twins are really contending in 20 days. Keep in mind that if a better than Benoit option comes around for the same price, that would clearly be better.

[DaveW]

Why would you use his numbers from 5 years ago instead of any of his last 4 seasons which might be, oh I dunno, a little more relevant.

[DaveW]

I would trade Eduardo Escobar for Benoit in a heartbeat if the Twins are really contending in 20 days. Keep in mind that if a better than Benoit option comes around for the same price, that would clearly be better.

I would too. Escobar is just a Util INF type, those are a dime a dozen. Yeah he hits kinda decently this year, but his glove isn't exactly excellent.

 

You don't lose much with Nunez/Santana as your util guy vs Escobar anyways.

[jun]

 

Padres seem to want MLB-players or close to MLB-players.

 

I have no idea, but I would certainly ship Escobar and Travis Harrison if that is the kind of price they want.

Who is going to play SS if Escobar is gone? Santana or Polanco? Santana is a complete mess. Polanco just could not field. Maybe Plouffe or Sano coud play SS?

What do you think?

[jokin]

 

Who is going to play SS if Escobar is gone? Santana or Polanco? Santana is a complete mess. Polanco just could not field. Maybe Plouffe or Sano coud play SS?

What do you think?

 

Nunez and another SS via trade.

[DiscGolfer]

 

There are a lot of things about Ryan's work as GM that I like, but his track record at assessing/acquiring veteran pitchers is not one of them.  Have the Twins acquired ANY veteran NL pitcher in the past decade that actually worked out?

Carl Pavano is the best I can come up with, pitched most of career in NL before Twins aquired him

[Shane Wahl]

 

Who is going to play SS if Escobar is gone? Santana or Polanco? Santana is a complete mess. Polanco just could not field. Maybe Plouffe or Sano coud play SS?

What do you think?

 

I am in the minority here who would just turn it over to Polanco and let him improve his defense. Santana can take over Escobar's role.

[jun]

 

I would too. Escobar is just a Util INF type, those are a dime a dozen. Yeah he hits kinda decently this year, but his glove isn't exactly excellent.

You don't lose much with Nunez/Santana as your util guy vs Escobar anyways.

Although Escobar's glove isn't exactly excellent, it's the best in the system at this position. He could play multiple positions. He also deserves to START at his natural position this season.

Never trade a starting position player when there isn't one more deserving in the system for a reliever.

Well trade someone else. Trade one of the bullpen prospects in AAA. Lester? Tonkin? That seems fair since it's really more about salary dump.

[jun]

Well I value defense and clutchness a lot. I think Escobar is still young. He is defensively sound. He has pop in his bat. He has decent speed. He often comes through in a clutch situation. When he's hot he could carry the team. He is a streaky hitter. He is definitely a positive force on this team.

 

[jun]

 

Nunez and another SS via trade.

Am I missing something here? Why do we trade for a SS when we already have a decent, young and inexpensive one? We all know Nunez is not the answer.

Bullpen issues need to be addressed.  It's just not worth depleting the talent in the position in need for it 

[jokin]

 

Am I missing something here? Why do we trade for a SS when we already have a decent, young and inexpensive one? We all know Nunez is not the answer.

Bullpen issues need to be addressed.  It's just not worth depleting the talent in the position in need for it 

 

Because the current SS situation is appallingly substandard for a contending team. Escobar is a utility player, not a starting SS on a legit contender- he's below replacement value in fWAR terms.   Santana is obviously even worse in fWAR value.   Nunez is perfectly fine as a once or twice a week SS, plus a PR/PH-  he is currently sporting  a +0.7bWAR and OPS+of 122.  

 

Both the pen and SS can be addressed by dealing with the right team or teams- start with Miami and San Diego (already talking with the Padres- Clint Barmes would be a perfectly acceptable SS for the second half run- he has playoff experience and is sure-handed at the position), both are teams who have shown they're willing to move aggressively.    If the Twins would be willing to take on a bad contract, Miami might part with one of their MIs.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins shortstop performance was 6th in the AL through Sunday. Catcher, Firstbase and DH were near the bottom. The Twins addressed DH.

 

The pen needs addressing either from within or the outside. If they go outside to get any player of real value it is going to cost real prospects. If Benoit is valued around the league, he is going to cost more than a C prospect or bench player or package of redundant prospects that the other team could never fit on their 40.

 

If the Twins get Benoit without giving up much, it will be a huge red flag that the rest of baseball doesn't see him as an asset in the pen. There are many teams that can afford a few months of his salary that need help in the pen. it isn't going to be about money. It will be about confidence in second half performance based on first half performance and peripherals.

 

Believe in Benoit? What is the best the Twins should offer? If you can't come up with better than C prospects, you are not a believer. To be realistic, any package should include only one player on the 40.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You expanded your sample size just enough to make your argument.  Why not 2009?  2005?  If it's a simple matter of "more=better" then your argument should stay valid if you keep going right?  But you just, by pure random luck, picked his career year and thought that was sufficient?

 

Yeah, right.  I agree that he won't be as good as he has been in all likelihood, but even then he'd still be the best thing in our bullpen after Perkins by a hefty margin.

 

I didn't choose 2009 because he didn't pitch in 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery.  I didn't choose 2005 because almost a third of his appearances were as a starter.  I picked 2010 because that gives 5 and a half years of data, all of which came after his surgery, no luck involved whatsoever.

 

If you admit that he won't be as good as he's been, why would we buy high on him?  Regardless of whether he'd be our second best bullpen option, he wouldn't be a good option, so why waste time and resources on trying to acquire him, when there are other, better options we could pursue instead?

[TheLeviathan]

I didn't choose 2009 because he didn't pitch in 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery.  I didn't choose 2005 because almost a third of his appearances were as a starter.  I picked 2010 because that gives 5 and a half years of data, all of which came after his surgery, no luck involved whatsoever.

 

If you admit that he won't be as good as he's been, why would we buy high on him?  Regardless of whether he'd be our second best bullpen option, he wouldn't be a good option, so why waste time and resources on trying to acquire him, when there are other, better options we could pursue instead?

That's such nonsense, you used his career year to trump up your claims. You shift your analysis even slightly and his trend his nonexistent or minimal. I don't mind saying "no" to Benoit, but this is as trumped up a case ASIs possibly imaginable.

 

Especially given we don't know his cost or what these "better" options are.

[drjim]

 

That's such nonsense, you used his career year to trump up your claims. You shift your analysis even slightly and his trend his nonexistent or minimal. I don't mind saying "no" to Benoit, but this is as trumped up a case ASIs possibly imaginable.

Especially given we don't know his cost or what these "better" options are.

 

Isn't this kind of the main point too? There are only a handful of selling teams, there aren't a whole lot of great setup men ready to be moved. A couple of RH closers (KRod, Papelbon), possibly Chapman, and the  a bunch of guys like Benoit, who are probably moved for salary relief as much as anything.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Isn't this kind of the main point too? There are only a handful of selling teams, there aren't a whole lot of great setup men ready to be moved. A couple of RH closers (KRod, Papelbon), possibly Chapman, and the  a bunch of guys like Benoit, who are probably moved for salary relief as much as anything.

 

It seems to me that this time of year paying for bullpen pieces happens one of two ways:

 

a)  you overpay

 

b ) or you acquire a marginal talent

 

I would imagine we acquire marginal talents. 

[drjim]

 

It seems to me that this time of year paying for bullpen pieces happens one of two ways:

 

a)  you overpay

 

b ) or you acquire a marginal talent

 

I would imagine we acquire marginal talents. 

 

And I actually think that is the right move for this team at this time.

 

I would amend B slightly and add another option of taking on money. Decent setup guys can be had as more or less salary dumps.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

That's such nonsense, you used his career year to trump up your claims. You shift your analysis even slightly and his trend his nonexistent or minimal. I don't mind saying "no" to Benoit, but this is as trumped up a case ASIs possibly imaginable.

Especially given we don't know his cost or what these "better" options are.

 

It's really not BS dude, you need to get over that.  Most players careers are curves--Benoit's peaked in 2010, as in, that was the best he ever was, and he's never been that good again.  Not only has he never been that good again, he's getting further away from being that good.  Sure, maybe his numbers aren't down that much from last year, and maybe his 2014 numbers aren't down that much from 2013, but when you put together a 5 year run, his numbers are down.  Look at his numbers right now--he's not a good reliever.  He's the definition of replacement.  He's not going to turn our leaky bullpen into the Royals' bullpen.  Every minute TR is haggling with the Padres over Benoit, he's not pursuing better options, and the thing is;

 

The better options are pretty easy to figure out...

 

A.J. Ramos

Jason Grilli

Koji Uehara

Carson Smith/Mark Lowe

Will Smith

Papelbon

 

All better options than Benoit, some cheaper, some more expensive, but all better, which is what matters.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not only has he never been that good again, he's getting further away from being that good.  

 

All players are "never that good again" in comparison to their career year - that's the nature of what a career year is and why it's so ridiculous to use it as your point of comparison!  That's the whole problem!

 

A.J. Ramos
Jason Grilli
Koji Uehara
Carson Smith/Mark Lowe
Will Smith
Papelbon

 

 

None of these guys are likely to be cheaper.  (Grilli will probably be of comparable cost)  Are you willing to give up Polanco or Thorpe or Gordon for these guys?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The better options are pretty easy to figure out...

 

A.J. Ramos

Jason Grilli

Koji Uehara

Carson Smith/Mark Lowe

Will Smith

Papelbon

 

All better options than Benoit, some cheaper, some more expensive, but all better, which is what matters.

Everyone on that list is almost certainly more expensive than Benoit right now, some significantly so.

 

Ramos and the two Smiths are all making the league minimum and are team controlled for 3+ more seasons beyond this year -- very little motivation for their teams to trade them.

 

Grilli, Uehara, and Papelbon are all closers controlled beyond 2015.

 

Lowe is a pending free agent, but he's also making the league minimum.

 

Benoit is not perfect, but his team also has the most incentive to try to move him *right now* (and not wait until July 31st either).

 

There's actually plenty of room in our pen to take a cash flyer on Benoit and still try to swing a favorable deal for one of these other guys.  I just don't want to do nothing until July 31st and potentially get zero external upgrades, or overpay for one of those upgrades on July 31st, which is a very real risk for your proposed method.

[jorgenswest]

If Benoit is one of few available late innings relievers, the Twins will need to overpay due to demand. The Twins need an 8th inning guy with Fien moving to the 7th. Is this the 8th inning guy that is going to make a difference? If so, pay up. Someone will. I am not confident that Benoit is that guy, but I haven't seen him throw a pitch this year.

 

Any move now will certainly be expensive in cost. The Padres have time to wait for a better deal. The Twins can also wait out the market and see who is left on the 31st.

 

A few teams made moves to acquire 8th innings guys last year in July. They had a very expensive prospect cost.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

All players are "never that good again" in comparison to their career year - that's the nature of what a career year is and why it's so ridiculous to use it as your point of comparison!  That's the whole problem!

 

 

None of these guys are likely to be cheaper.  (Grilli will probably be of comparable cost)  Are you willing to give up Polanco or Thorpe or Gordon for these guys?  

 

When people (like you) say he's been damn good for several years, it's not at all ridiculous to point out the difference between what he used to be, and what he now is.  I reference his career year to show that he's not what he used to be.  If you don't want to argue about the past, then let's just argue about this year; do you really want to trade for a guy who's bottom quartile in FIP, strikes out less than 1/IP, walks more than 3/9, AND is only getting by on the back of a ridiculous BABIP?

 

As for your proposed return for the other options, you are wildly overstating what a team who is honestly willing to trade a player would look for from a middle reliever.  We got Milone for Fuld straight up, and Milone was far more valuable than a middle reliever.  Here's some other deals that involved relief pitchers last year;

 

The Orioles got Andrew Miller (who was/is a stud) for Eduardo Rodriguez, who was striking out 7.5/9 with a 3.5 FIP in AA.

 

The Braves got James Russell  AND Emilio Bonifacio for a catcher who was in his first full season of A ball

 

The Tigers got Soria for Jake Thompson (who was released at the end of the year and is currently out of baseball), and Cory Knebel, who was walking 4.4/9 in AAA.

 

All of those relievers had better numbers last year than Benoit does this year, and I would argue that the return was less than or equal to Taylor Rogers and a redundant prospect we could throw in if needed.  Offer Rogers and say Vielma/Kanzler, and that should be enough to get any of the pitchers listed above.