Trade Candidate Ian Desmond

[jorgenswest]

You don't need any stats. Just watch Tuesday's game. Balls were hit to both sides of him that Santana was getting. Key ground balls at key moments. He fumbled a double play ball hit right to him. He extended innings and as a result Pelfrey is up in pitch count and facing LaRoche and Cabrera. That loss is a different game with almost anyone else at SS.

 

Nunez is not a solution at SS. He should never be at SS with Gibson or Pelfrey pitching. They rely on ground balls. We have seen the impact of bad defense from the outfield the last few years. Let's not forget the impact of bad defense when we were playing Nishioka and Plouffe at SS.

[jorgenswest]

On Desmond...

 

The Twins really need someone is getting on base from SS. Another high strike out low on base guy with occasional power is not needed. I would bet on Santana doing a better job of getting on base than Desmond in the second half.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Nationals are in win now mode though and they have what they feel are better options internally up the middle like Rendon, Espinosa etc

So given the Nationals are in "win now" mode, perhaps they don't want the comp pick and would rather get some present-day value for him (even if it's less value over than the comp pick could provide).

 

But what are their needs?  Maybe a starting OF or first basemen while Werth and Zimmerman are still out?  Bullpen help?  The Twins are having enough trouble contributing at these positions for their own team, much less another team trying to win now.

[DaveW]

 

On Desmond...

The Twins really need someone is getting on base from SS. Another high strike out low on base guy with occasional power is not needed. I would bet on Santana doing a better job of getting on base than Desmond in the second half.

25 HR, .450-.480 SLG is not "occasional" power.

Also I think the Twins could use more power, this is a team that has had Suzuki batting 5th in a double digit number of games.

[DaveW]

 

 

So given the Nationals are in "win now" mode, perhaps they don't want the comp pick and would rather get some present-day value for him (even if it's less value over than the comp pick could provide).

 

But what are their needs?  Maybe a starting OF or first basemen while Werth and Zimmerman are still out?  Bullpen help?  The Twins are having enough trouble contributing at these positions for their own team, much less another team trying to win now.

Per MLBTRADERUMORS

"In his latest notes column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal begins with an interesting note on the Nationals. Despite a substantial payroll and a heavy offseason investment in Max Scherzer, Nats ownership is reluctant to add payroll during the season. Rosenthal notes that, in hindsight, we saw an indication of this last July when Cleveland paid all of the $3.3MM remaining on Asdrubal Cabrera‘s salary after the Nats acquired him. (Of course, the Nats were also willing to take on all of Matt Thornton‘s salary via waiver claim.)

Because of this, Rosenthal wonders if the Nats will consider trading Ian Desmond this summer to clear room for a different acquisition. Given Desmond’s struggles, the team could be better off with Danny Espinosa, Yunel Escobar and Anthony Rendon seeing regular time in the infield."

 

 

This makes me think the Twins could get him for somewhat of a good deal if they pick up his dollars (The Twins have plenty of payroll flexibility)

 

[tobi0040]

The 35th pick this year was Kyle Funkhauser.  That is the type of range the Nats will be picking when Desmond rejects the QO.  Meaning the Twins have to offer something more than that and we would be silly to do that.

[Mike Sixel]

Heck, next year Trea Turner could be their starting SS.......

[jokin]

 

The 35th pick this year was Kyle Funkhauser.  That is the type of range the Nats will be picking when Desmond rejects the QO.  Meaning the Twins have to offer something more than that and we would be silly to do that.

 

This is true only if someone else offers something comparable to Funkhauser (pretty unlikely) .... AND.. that the Nats don't need the Desmond payroll savings to be redeployed in a separate acquisition (they're maxed out on their payroll at the moment).

[jorgenswest]

Any acquisition that costs prospects needs to be for this year and next. 

 

If they can find a match for Pelfrey in a swap of veterans who will be free agents, that would make sense. I am not sure there is a match. Is there a team with a need in the rotation that can give the Twins short term help at SS or C? Maybe there is a three team trade with Pelfrey moving to a contender in need of a starter and that team filling a Washington need and Desmond coming to Minnesota.

 

 

[drjim]

 

Heck, next year Trea Turner could be their starting SS.......

 

I would change that to likely.

[DaveW]

 

The 35th pick this year was Kyle Funkhauser.  That is the type of range the Nats will be picking when Desmond rejects the QO.  Meaning the Twins have to offer something more than that and we would be silly to do that.

Mark Hamburger is just as cool of a name. How about him for Desmond?

[tobi0040]

 

This is true only if someone else offers something comparable to Funkhauser (pretty unlikely) .... AND.. that the Nats don't need the Desmond payroll savings to be redeployed in a separate acquisition (they're maxed out on their payroll at the moment).

 

If I understand the rules, if Desmond is offered the QO and rejects, the Nats get a draft pick in this range.  Therefore, they could bench the guy and get the low 30's pick.  So if any team wants to trade for him they need to pony up something that is more valuable to the Nats.

 

Regarding the QO.

 

Jose Reyes is on a 6 year, $106M deal and his WAR since 2012 is 9.2.

 

Starlin Castro is on a 7 year, $60M deal (which included some arbitration) and his WAR since 2012 is 5.

 

Elvis Andrus signed an 8 year, $118M deal and his WAR since 2012 is 9.6.

 

Ian's WAR since 2012 is 10.6, higher than all of them.  He isn't taking the QO. 

[DaveW]

 

If I understand the rules, if Desmond is offered the QO and rejects, the Nats get a draft pick in this range.  Therefore, they could bench the guy and get the low 30's pick.  So if any team wants to trade for him they need to pony up something that is more valuable to the Nats.

Yeah they could bench him, but that article specifically states that they could use his freed up money by trading him this year by going out and getting another piece the covet.

Maybe a 3 way deal makes sense:
 

Twins get Desmond

Nationals get Clippard

A's get a couple mid level prospects

 

Also, I would be more than happy to give up "top 35 pick" value for Desmond, he instantly makes this Twins offense better and assuming his yips are over at SS he provides an uptick with his defense as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe a 3 way deal makes sense:

 

Twins get Desmond

Nationals get Clippard

A's get a couple mid level prospects

So what prospects are you willing to give up?

 

And if the A's aren't ready to throw in the towel (if the Astros fade, that division is wide open), unless the prospects are really good, they might just do this trade straight-up with the Nationals (Desmond for Clippard).

[DocBauer]

Not against the move in basic context. Not against the Twins improving and winning and competing. But my initial response is no. I dont want to acquire a temp fix that will not be back, and in theory, actually cost something. I'd rather trade any assets for a young-ish catcher, either now or more likely in the off season.

 

Nunez is not the answer at SS. I like Escobar a lot and think he's solid, if not great. I dont know that he's as good as last year, but I think he's better than this year. Santana is still immensely talented. P olanco may be the best option.

 

Keep working with these guys. Worry about a young catcher

[DaveW]

 

So what prospects are you willing to give up?

 

And if the A's aren't ready to throw in the towel (if the Astros fade, that division is wide open), unless the prospects are really good, they might just do this trade straight-up with the Nationals (Desmond for Clippard).

A couple in the 15-25 range. (Which would be top 10 guys in the Nats system)

[DaveW]

 

 

Not against the move in basic context. Not against the Twins improving and winning and competing. But my initial response is no. I dont want to acquire a temp fix that will not be back, and in theory, actually cost something. I'd rather trade any assets for a young-ish catcher, either now or more likely in the off season.

Nunez is not the answer at SS. I like Escobar a lot and think he's solid, if not great. I dont know that he's as good as last year, but I think he's better than this year. Santana is still immensely talented. P olanco may be the best option.

Keep working with these guys. Worry about a young catcher

Getting a young catcher doesn't preclude you from getting a SS. Also, who knows, maybe Desmond would be back? We don't have any real high upside SS anywhere close to the majors (Gordon is still at least 3-4 years away). We are set at 3B, 2B, 1B and the OF for the next 3-4 years as well. The Twins haven't had a legit SS in a decade plus, maybe its time to change that?

[tobi0040]

 

A couple in the 15-25 range. (Which would be top 10 guys in the Nats system)

 

I don't think a few 15-25 guys are the opposite side of a Desmand and Clippard deal, rental or not.

[DaveW]

 

I don't think a few 15-25 guys are the opposite side of a Desmand and Clippard deal, rental or not.

JJ Hardy coming off a down year only cost Jim Hooey.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

JJ Hardy coming off a down year only cost Jim Hooey.

And that was one of the most lopsided trades of recent memory.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A couple in the 15-25 range. (Which would be top 10 guys in the Nats system)

By Sickels preseason list, guys in the 15-25 range for the Twins include Turner, Walker, Reed, Hu, Darnell, Goodrum, Rogers, Tonkin, Wheeler, etc.  All C or C+ guys at the time (maybe Hu has moved up a notch?).

 

Any two particular names you have in mind?  Because in general I doubt that group looks really attractive to Washington or Oakland, especially compared to a #35 overall draft pick in Washington's case.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think the Nationals are going to feel comfortable turning things over to Danny Espinosa and letting Desmond go.  I don't think his name is even going to entertain a possibility of a trade.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think the Nationals are going to feel comfortable turning things over to Danny Espinosa and letting Desmond go.  I don't think his name is even going to entertain a possibility of a trade.

Especially since Espinosa was as disappointing the last two years as Desmond has been this year.

[jokin]

 

I don't think the Nationals are going to feel comfortable turning things over to Danny Espinosa and letting Desmond go.  I don't think his name is even going to entertain a possibility of a trade.

 

The Nats are reported to have been trying to dump Desmond since at least last  December and January:

 

Dec. 11, 2014

 

Jim Bowden
‏@JimBowden_ESPN
Nats-Mariners continue to work on a deal that would send Ian Desmond to the Mariners....Mariners not willing to include Walker or Paxton

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/washington-nationals-new-york-mets-tampa-bay-rays-ian-desmond-ben-zobrist-trade-011115

 

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Nats are still looking at trade possbilities.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Desmond wouldn't be a bad pickup.  If the Twins are taking on his salary, he could be had for very little, and there's a possibility that the change in scenery helps him recapture what he was the last few years.  In terms of a good lottery ticket, this is one worth grabbing.  I doubt we would need to part with a 10-20 ranked prospect to get him. 

 

That said, what the team really needs is a catcher.  That will be expensive, and I do think it would be wise to part with a blocked higher ceiling prospect or consider trading a guy like Plouffe this offseason to get one. 

[nicksaviking]

The Nats are reported to have been trying to dump Desmond since at least last December and January:

 

 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/washington-nationals-new-york-mets-tampa-bay-rays-ian-desmond-ben-zobrist-trade-011115

 

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Nats are still looking at trade possbilities.

I wouldn't doubt they're willing to trade him, however I doubt a mere three months is going to lower the asking price from Tijuan Walker to Adam Walker.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I wouldn't doubt they're willing to trade him, however I doubt a mere three months is going to lower the asking price from Tijuan Walker to Adam Walker.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't use the term "dump" if they are asking for Tijuan Walker.

[jokin]

 

I wouldn't doubt they're willing to trade him, however I doubt a mere three months is going to lower the asking price from Tijuan Walker to Adam Walker.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't use the term "dump" if they are asking for Tijuan Walker.

 

That was then- and the Mariners said "No".  I do think Nats will have to lower the price, if motivated enough.  Desmond's value has come crashing down since last December.  But it's all going to come down to if the Nats decide they need the money more now to upgrade their roster or the comp pick for much later down the road. 

 

The Nats have 4 potential FAs on expiring contracts, all of whom will generate 1st round comp picks on decllined QOs.  They may want to get rid of the least productive one now instead of making a QO, in order to upgrade at areas of need.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Nats have 4 potential FAs on expiring contracts, all of whom will generate 1st round comp picks on decllined QOs.  They may want to get rid of the least productive one now instead of making a QO, in order to upgrade at areas of need.

 

Trading someone at their lowpoint is unlikely to help an area of need or get back the equivalent of a 1st round pick.  Especially given what they have behind him.

[jorgenswest]

Desmond would be a short term rental. The Twins have to be very confident there isn't injury or something else underlying that is leading to his poor performance this year. They don't have the luxury of time for him to move back towards his mean level of performance.

 

If they are not confident that they can turn him around immediately, they can't give up prospects.

 

Bret Boone was a pure salary dump in 2005 when he was one of the highest paid middle infielders. He hit 120 home runs from 2001-2004. He had an off half season in 2005 with 7 HRs and low OBP when traded to the Twins for salary relief. He was awful for the Twins and kept them form looking for a real solution. The Twins don't need a bad half season from Desmond.