2016 Election Thread

[Badsmerf]

Funny, I suggested Grassley before reading that article. The alternative suggestions.... none have much stream in Iowa. Carson has spent the most time in Iowa and I could see him winning, but he has no chance at other parts if the country. Rubio and Bush have also been advertising heavily. That is it though. I doubt the average conservative voter in Iowa knows much about anyone else.

[mikecgrimes]

 

What would make it obscure isn't the detail, it's the fact that it's different.

 

The people Trump is pulling in are still voting on Republican platform (anti-immigration primarily), so any distinction about them being registered as Democrats is pretty meaningless.  

 

 

No Democrat in North East Minneapolis who thinks frozen pants are important is voting Trump, The Democrat party goes well beyond the core cities, and some of those people do have differing opinions on immigration then the pant freezers.  I know it's nicer if we just go with Republicans are racist and Democrats aren't, but that's not reality.  Also for what it's worth Trump would according to polls get a  much greater share of the African American vote then the average Republican.

 

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

Bob Dole is now going after Cruz. Seems the party has now decided that Cruz is more dangerous than Trump, as Trump is a sideshow but if Cruz starts winning the primaries, he's going to continue with his lunacy well beyond 2016.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/bob-dole-ted-cruz-donald-trump/index.html

 

"One leading GOP strategist involved in the effort put it this way: "If Trump loses we wash our hands of him. Cruz will think we need to be more crazy and be a long-term nightmare."

 

That's an unnamed GOP strategist, not the other side of the aisle.

 

I'm glad to hear that, at least it sounds like the level heads of the party know they can't go nuclear on social issues and still hope to be relevant again. Someone's making an effort in there to coral the Tea Party damage and bring the party back to within shouting distance of the middle.

 

It doesn't matter if the establishment would prefer Trump or Cruz, they don't want either.  This is the play to make given that, and hey keep in mind they've been bashing Trump for months.  Dole prefers Bush to Trump and that's exactly what this is about.  As much as I hoped he was done Jeb Bush will come out of Iowa as the comeback kid, and as much as I don't want to predict it Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee. 

[nicksaviking]

It doesn't matter if the establishment would prefer Trump or Cruz, they don't want either.  This is the play to make given that, and hey keep in mind they've been bashing Trump for months.  Dole prefers Bush to Trump and that's exactly what this is about.  As much as I hoped he was done Jeb Bush will come out of Iowa as the comeback kid, and as much as I don't want to predict it Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee.

 

Bush is a strong possibility as Iowans aren't particularly radical In either direction, and I have little interest in Bush, but who is it you are hoping for? Bush and Christy, along with Paul or Rubio if you squint really hard are the only guys who are even close to reasonable and level headed.

[DaveW]

Christie...level headed.... lol

Paul, Bush and Kasich seem like decent enough humans but none of them stand a chance.

 

Rubio is like one step behind Cruz and Trump in his fear mongering and hate speech towards women and other groups. Just because he isn't as crazy doesn't mean he is even close to level headed.

[nicksaviking]

Christie...level headed.... lol

Paul, Bush and Kasich seem like decent enough humans but none of them stand a chance.

Rubio is like one step behind Cruz and Trump in his fear mongering and hate speech towards women and other groups. Just because he isn't as crazy doesn't mean he is even close to level headed.

I was doing my best to be magnanimous. This topic makes that difficult.

[DaveW]

I was doing my best to be magnanimous. This topic makes the difficult.

fair enough, and I gave credit to three of them, but Rubio is just a shade worse than the front two. Christie, I mean, he seems ok at sometimes and such a scumbag at others, he just comes off as a huge liar (much more so then most other pols), don't even get me started on bridge gate, which he should be in jail for.

[nicksaviking]

fair enough, and I gave credit to three of them, but Rubio is just a shade worse than the front two. Christie, I mean, he seems ok at sometimes and such a scumbag at others, he just comes off as a huge liar (much more so then most other pols), don't even get me started on bridge gate, which he should be in jail for.

Christie seems more in line with politicians of yore. You worry about his under-the-table activities and only slightly about his policies.

 

He also idolizes pretty left-wing Bruce Springsteen so that buys him a point in my book. Not that that point is getting very far.

[DaveW]

Christie seems more in line with politicians of yore. You worry about his under-the-table activities and only slightly about his policies.

 

He also idolizes pretty left-wing Bruce Springsteen so that buys him a point in my book. Not that that point is getting very far.

Call it under the table all you want, it actively ****ed over a lot of people I know as it is the busiest bridge in the entire world. He should be in jail for that as well as embezzlement (don't even get me started on his other mafia style tactics when it came to handing out state contracts as well)

 

Christie is a straight up scumbag. Everyone in NYC knows it and anyone with an IQ over 75 in Jersey knows it,

[biggentleben]

Call it under the table all you want, it actively ****ed over a lot of people I know as it is the busiest bridge in the entire world. He should be in jail for that as well as embezzlement (don't even get me started on his other mafia style tactics when it came to handing out state contracts as well)

 

Christie is a straight up scumbag. Everyone in NYC knows it and anyone with an IQ over 75 in Jersey knows it,

So you're saying no one in Jersey has a clue?

[DaveW]

So you're saying no one in Jersey has a clue?

 

Every person I have met from New Jersey with a brain and a good job hates him. I can't speak for the hell hole that is south jersey though.

[biggentleben]

 

Every person I have met from New Jersey with a brain and a good job hates him. I can't speak for the hell hole that is south jersey though.

 

Was making a joke on no one from Jersey having an IQ over 75. I love messing with guys from Jersey on the Braves boards I'm on because they're very self aware as well LOL

[DaveW]

Was making a joke on no one from Jersey having an IQ over 75. I love messing with guys from Jersey on the Braves boards I'm on because they're very self aware as well LOL

Ah got it.

 

Plenty of smart people from the "good" parts of jersey, Princeton, Montclair, Piscataway even Hoboken has some solid folks etc but yeah, a decent amount of it is trash. (Just like upstate NY for that matter)

[mikecgrimes]

 

Bush is a strong possibility as Iowans aren't particularly radical In either direction, and I have little interest in Bush, but who is it you are hoping for? Bush and Christy, along with Paul or Rubio if you squint really hard are the only guys who are even close to reasonable and level headed.

 

I support Paul, but among current contenders I prefer Cruz.

[Willihammer]

 

Here is the best thing I have read on Trump to date: 

 

http://theweek.com/articles/599577/how-obscure-adviser-pat-buchanan-predicted-wild-trump-campaign-1996

That's a well written article and maybe it explains why Trump is popular in the Rust Belt, but how would the author explain Trump's popularity everywhere else? Most people, Minnesotans I know who are Trump supporters are employed, come from stable families, etc. in other words, are winners of globalization (as are most people). When you eliminate globalization and immigration as a reason, the easiest explanation is there's just a basic racism and xenophobia at the heart of it for those people, dressed in patriotic flair.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know many Trump supporters, but the ones I do know are all in on the xenophobia, and "not part of Washington". I find it funny that they are all well employed, but feel like "immigrants are stealing our jobs". Which, I guess, is something USAians have felt for their entire existence. Fear is a funny thing, really.

[drjim]

 

That's a well written article and maybe it explains why Trump is popular in the Rust Belt, but how would the author explain Trump's popularity everywhere else? Most people, Minnesotans I know who are Trump supporters are employed, come from stable families, etc. in other words, are winners of globalization (as are most people). When you eliminate globalization and immigration as a reason, the easiest explanation is there's just a basic racism and xenophobia at the heart of it for those people, dressed in patriotic flair.

 

There is certainly xenophobia, and Trump clearly provides the best outlet for it. No explanation is going to fully explain the complete support for any candidate, but I also think he has tapped into a general sense of insecurity felt by many people in the country over a wide range of issues, from foreign affairs, economic insecurity, rising prices in critical things (health care, college), and the shifting racial demographics of the country as a whole - it probably all combines and it is nice when there is an outlet to unapologetically focus these emotions.

 

That's my theory anyways, combined with the complete failure of both parties to do basically anything to address especially the economic insecurity that is quite legitimate.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is certainly xenophobia, and Trump clearly provides the best outlet for it. No explanation is going to fully explain the complete support for any candidate, but I also think he has tapped into a general sense of insecurity felt by many people in the country over a wide range of issues, from foreign affairs, economic insecurity, rising prices in critical things (health care, college), and the shifting racial demographics of the country as a whole - it probably all combines and it is nice when there is an outlet to unapologetically focus these emotions.

 

That's my theory anyways, combined with the complete failure of both parties to do basically anything to address especially the economic insecurity that is quite legitimate.

 

I think that is a good theory......

[drjim]

 

I don't know many Trump supporters, but the ones I do know are all in on the xenophobia, and "not part of Washington". I find it funny that they are all well employed, but feel like "immigrants are stealing our jobs". Which, I guess, is something USAians have felt for their entire existence. Fear is a funny thing, really.

 

Immigrants certainly contribute to the stagnation of wages for blue collar/non-college educated workers. There is obviously much more to it, but it is an easy scapegoat that has the benefit of being partially true. And it flows to people thinking that they are already being squeezed by taxes and more public money is being funneled to immigrants and refugees. The extent is being exaggerated but there is still some truth to that as well.

 

I guess if I was a blue collar worker, realizing that my wages had been relatively stagnant for 30 years, facing uncertain health care costs, rising college costs for my children, an uncertain job market going forward - I wouldn't be especially enthusiastic for more immigrants and/or refugees coming in.

 

It is fine to call out xenophobia and fear, but it is also helpful to acknowledge the truth that drives these feelings. Not sure there is an easy solution.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Immigrants certainly contribute to the stagnation of wages for blue collar/non-college educated workers. There is obviously much more to it, but it is an easy scapegoat that has the benefit of being partially true. And it flows to people thinking that they are already being squeezed by taxes and more public money is being funneled to immigrants and refugees. The extent is being exaggerated but there is still some truth to that as well.

 

I guess if I was a blue collar worker, realizing that my wages had been relatively stagnant for 30 years, facing uncertain health care costs, rising college costs for my children, an uncertain job market going forward - I wouldn't be especially enthusiastic for more immigrants and/or refugees coming in.

 

It is fine to call out xenophobia and fear, but it is also helpful to acknowledge the truth that drives these feelings. Not sure there is an easy solution.

 

What I wouldn't do is help business kill unions......but dang, that $20 I pay in dues is killing me!

[drjim]

 

What I wouldn't do is help business kill unions......but dang, that $20 I pay in dues is killing me!

 

Killing unions and increasing immigration is great for ownership. Improves the bottom line.

[Squirrel]

 

Killing unions and increasing immigration is great for ownership. Improves the bottom line.

And is horrible for workers and the middle class.

[Squirrel]

 

 

Immigrants certainly contribute to the stagnation of wages for blue collar/non-college educated workers. There is obviously much more to it, but it is an easy scapegoat that has the benefit of being partially true. And it flows to people thinking that they are already being squeezed by taxes and more public money is being funneled to immigrants and refugees. The extent is being exaggerated but there is still some truth to that as well.

 

I guess if I was a blue collar worker, realizing that my wages had been relatively stagnant for 30 years, facing uncertain health care costs, rising college costs for my children, an uncertain job market going forward - I wouldn't be especially enthusiastic for more immigrants and/or refugees coming in.

 

It is fine to call out xenophobia and fear, but it is also helpful to acknowledge the truth that drives these feelings. Not sure there is an easy solution.

But there isn't truth driving these feelings. There is false rhetoric and misinformation that is. Immigrants aren't taking jobs away, but companies moving their businesses overseas for cheap labor is. I find blaming unions and immigrants and the poor easy and disingenuous.

[drjim]

 

And is horrible for workers and the middle class.

 

Oh, I agree.

[drjim]

 

But there isn't truth driving these feelings. There is false rhetoric and misinformation that is. Immigrants aren't taking jobs away, but companies moving their businesses overseas for cheap labor is. I find blaming unions and immigrants and the poor easy and disingenuous.

 

There is some truth though, and it does need to be acknowledged. Increasing immigration contributes to stagnation of wages, as does decreasing the supply of low skilled jobs by moving those jobs overseas. There certainly is many factors that is causing the economic uncertainty, but immigration is absolutely a part of it. And since they are close and tangible (and look different) they unfortunately bear the brunt of the blowback.

 

I personally think immigration is worth it and should be supported, but with that support it also has to acknowledged that there is economic consequence for people who live here, especially for blue collar and non college-educated workers. And we also need to acknowledge that neither party has done a whole lot to address these economic consequences for these workers, and don't seem to be doing much better this cycle, which is why someone like Trump has such sustained support. And even when (if) Trump is eventually defeated this election cycle, this isn't going away.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There is certainly xenophobia, and Trump clearly provides the best outlet for it. No explanation is going to fully explain the complete support for any candidate, but I also think he has tapped into a general sense of insecurity felt by many people in the country over a wide range of issues, from foreign affairs, economic insecurity, rising prices in critical things (health care, college), and the shifting racial demographics of the country as a whole - it probably all combines and it is nice when there is an outlet to unapologetically focus these emotions.

 

That's my theory anyways, combined with the complete failure of both parties to do basically anything to address especially the economic insecurity that is quite legitimate.

 

That's a good picture of it.

 

I'd add that Trump isn't afraid to say what a lot of people are thinking and what most politicians don't dare say. 

 

Unfortunately, I'm afraid he's going to win it all. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

What I wouldn't do is help business kill unions......but dang, that $20 I pay in dues is killing me!

 

Unions come with a whole host of their own problems.  See: police accountability.  Or, hell, the financial state of the city of Chicago.

 

There was a time where supporting a union made sense.  Now that they've become corrupt little corporate-lite entities of their own that sway the political system with massive amounts of money....yeah, not so much.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unions come with a whole host of their own problems.  See: police accountability.  Or, hell, the financial state of the city of Chicago.

 

There was a time where supporting a union made sense.  Now that they've become corrupt little corporate-lite entities of their own that sway the political system with massive amounts of money....yeah, not so much.

 

Collapse of the middle class.....partly. We likely won't agree on this. I'm not claiming they are perfect, but thinking they are the reason wages are down, and jobs are going over seas? Hahahahaha.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Collapse of the middle class.....partly. We likely won't agree on this. I'm not claiming they are perfect, but thinking they are the reason wages are down, and jobs are going over seas? Hahahahaha.

 

On that front I agree, they get falsely blamed for that.  But they create a whole host of problems on other fronts not tied in with immigration and the squeeze on middle class.

 

I would argue that in heavy union-dominated cities, they do put a very harsh squeeze on any non-union middle class people.  Especially in the city of Chicago that can be really apparent.  

[PseudoSABR]

Public unions are a problem in the same that government subsidies create a shadow demand to pilfer public funds.  Perhaps rather than having public workers unionize, states could impose a statutory mandate to increase pay to match inflation/increase in standard of living.   Unions in the private market are essential and don't necessarily lead to the same absurd results that public unions might cause as there's clear operation bottom line.   A business could go belly up and get snuffed out of existence if unions overplay their hand, however, states and local municipalities (although they can go bankrupt) will never cease to exist--in that sense there's no barrier that prevents unions from bargaining their municipalities into forever-poverty.