BA on Draft

[Thrylos]

 

You've long been fascinated with Hooper, but he's having a hard time throwing it over the plate. He's back-half of first round, at best, right now. Guys with complete lack of control drop, whether you think its silly or not.

 

Was it silly that Giolito was the 7th pitcher selected in 2012?   Similar situation.  Control problems for tall pitchers is nothing new.  You just cannot pass on a lefty with top of the rotation potential...

[Jeremy Nygaard]

BA's Top 100 has West Alabama pitcher Tanner Rainey at #90. Kiley mentions Rainey as a potential 2nd rounder in his mock to a couple of teams. The Twins are real high on Rainey, who's currently a 2-way guy, he's only thrown 21 innings (and has 28 Ks) this year. He's walked 14 too, but given the liking the Twins have taken to two-way guys and hard-throwing relievers who become starting pitchers, I could definitely see Rainey being considered at 73 and 80 if he's still on the board.

[COtwin]

 

Interesting name. Looks a bit like Chris Sale doesn't he?

Not a fan of the beginning of his windup.  He seems to be placing himself out of balance or something.  Sideways motion before moving to the plate.  Anyone else see what I am seeing there?  I think that could be fixed if it is a problem.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Was it silly that Giolito was the 7th pitcher selected in 2012?   Similar situation.  Control problems for tall pitchers is nothing new.  You just cannot pass on a lefty with top of the rotation potential...

 

Huh? Giolito, a right-hander, was the top prospect in that class but dropped because of uncertainties around the health of his right elbow. He could have been first prep righty to ever go 1-1 if not for those uncertainties. Those situations aren't even in the same area code.

 

There's a familiar name in here that dropped because of control issues. You might have to HUNT for it though.

[cmb0252]

Woot woot for mocks! Even though this draft class is significantly weaker than the last few, we will still get a solid prospect at #6. I totally support grabbing Allard at #6 if his medicals check out.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If Bregman is the pick at #6, I wouldn't complain a bit. The question is if he sticks at SS. I've always viewed him as "Dozier with a true hit tool". But as far as BPA goes, he'd be a heckuva choice. 

 

Many of you - like I do - probably think "middle infielder? Twins have that covered", but if the Twins are still in contention in July, they could move some of their depth, middle infielders included, you know?

 

Is Matt Capps available? Polanco for Capps, who says no? (Just kidding.)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Woot woot for mocks! Even though this draft class is significantly weaker than the last few, we will still get a solid prospect at #6. I totally support grabbing Allard at #6 if his medicals check out.

 

I dig Allard. Some confusion on where he is medically though, Some have said he's "back on the mound", while I've heard he is just starting to workout again, which probably isn't throwing from a mound. There season goes til late May/early June, so there is a chance he pitches again, depending on his team's success.

[ashbury]

Not a fan of the beginning of his windup.  He seems to be placing himself out of balance or something.  Sideways motion before moving to the plate.  Anyone else see what I am seeing there?  I think that could be fixed if it is a problem.

Do only batters have hitches, or can a pitcher?

[Thrylos]

 

Huh? Giolito, a right-hander, was the top prospect in that class but dropped because of uncertainties around the health of his right elbow. He could have been first prep righty to ever go 1-1 if not for those uncertainties. Those situations aren't even in the same area code.

 

There's a familiar name in here that dropped because of control issues. You might have to HUNT for it though.

 

 

No comparison with Hunt whatsoever.   Hunt was a College pitcher, did not ever had top of the rotation potential, and is not 6'7" and growing...   Tall pitchers have control issues because of mechanics.  Fixable with the correct coaching.

 

My point is that Giolito dropped because of silly reasons and there are a whole bunch of teams that are hitting themselves for not picking him.  Hooper would be a similar situation.   The MLB Draft should about potential in general not fixable issues (like Gioloto's elbow and Hooper's mechanics.)

[Hrbowski]

Kiley also said that it wouldn't shock him if Tyler Jay went 6-8.

[cmb0252]

Definitely in on Bregman even though I'm not sure he will stick at SS. Safest bat in the draft and would make sense at #6, if he lasts that long. Sounds like Bregmans floor is Boston at #7 if he makes it past the Twins.

 

Both sickels and Law should have mocks out in the next week or two so it will be interesting to see which direction they go for the Twins pick.

[nater79a]

 

I dig Allard. Some confusion on where he is medically though, Some have said he's "back on the mound", while I've heard he is just starting to workout again, which probably isn't throwing from a mound. There season goes til late May/early June, so there is a chance he pitches again, depending on his team's success.

 

I like Bregman and Allard also. Any issues with Allard only being 6'-0" tall? The whole "downward plane" issue, ya know...

[COtwin]

 

Do only batters have hitches, or can a pitcher?

I think hitches are fine for some people, but he doesn't seem very fluid in his windup.  he is moving a lot perpendicular to the plate.  He steps back towards third and then when he starts moving forward he looks like he is still moving towards first base. seems like he is creating a moving base.  I actually like some of the rest that I saw in that clip.  Just wondering if all of the movement off of plane could hurt his mechanics.

[ashbury]

He steps back towards third and then when he starts moving forward he looks like he is still moving towards first base.

That was something else I wondered when I saw it - whether umpires might hassle him about a balk move when a runner's on first. He'll rightly argue it's his natural pitching motion, but I could imagine someone deciding it's still a balk.

[DocBauer]

In the past, I think the Twins burned themselves at times by going for the safe guy, the projectables guy, instead of the high upside guy.

 

With the best milb system around, or at worst #3 depending on who's list you read, no second rounder to "fall back" on, and some intriguing players available with questions, I think this is the perfect time for the Twins to grab that potentially big payoff prospect. There is still time to answer some of these questions before draft day. I'd take the absolute best LHSP available to me, high school or college.

[markos]

 

No comparison with Hunt whatsoever.   Hunt was a College pitcher, did not ever had top of the rotation potential, and is not 6'7" and growing...   Tall pitchers have control issues because of mechanics.  Fixable with the correct coaching.

 

My point is that Giolito dropped because of silly reasons and there are a whole bunch of teams that are hitting themselves for not picking him.  Hooper would be a similar situation.   The MLB Draft should about potential in general not fixable issues (like Gioloto's elbow and Hooper's mechanics.)

I've heard that Hooper has not only struggled with command, but he has also struggled to keep his velocity. He can touch 97 in one or two inning stints (like the showcase games last summer), but when starting he mostly sits 90-93. If he is pitching just once a week, he will probably take another step back when in pro ball and pitching every 5 days. I'm not 100% how to judge stamina at his age, but it seems somewhat important when trying to project a future starter.

[Hrbowski]

It would be funny if we draft Alex Bregman first and with our B pick take Andrew Stevenson, or go Kyle Tucker and then Jake Woodford.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I don't think there are a lot of teams kicking themselves for not drafting Giolito. I don't think a lot of teams were falling over themselves to manipulate their draft pool to get one guy the money he wanted. It's like saying all the other 29 teams are kicking themselves for not signing Sano. Lots of teams just weren't interested in paying the price.

 

I can also promise you Giolito is not showing up on scout's reports as a player comp for Hooper. (That was my point on Hunt.) Throw out Alex Meyer as a player out of high school, then we're getting somewhere.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Got some interesting some stuff over the weekend. I tweeted it, but harder to explain in groups of 140 characters.

 

The Diamondbacks are down to a group of ~8. It will come down to the guy that gives them the best deal. 

 

The Astros are locked in on Cameron at 5, but he's a Boras guy. They are working the same strategy as Arizona. Which puts Cameron (and presumably others) in a curious position: Boras guys don't cut pre-draft deals. So taking Cameron at 5 would mean you're committing to paying him ~$4.2m. There is some belief - to guarantee that money - that Boras would cut a deal to see Cameron go at #2, which might even be more than pick 5 money. (If everyone else is willing to take less money, that could lead the Astros to look elsewhere, which would motivate Boras to make some deal.)

 

That would then free the Astros up to take another "deal" guy or one of the guys that falls and pay him less than $4.2m... which essentially frees the Astros up to pay Top 5 money at their next pick or spread a ton of money over the rest of their picks. 

 

At the end of the day, there are a LOT of guys at play at 1, 2 and 5 (at a minimum), so guessing who would be available at #6 is hard to say. It literally could be anyone, except Dillon Tate, I don't believe he falls.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Got some interesting some stuff over the weekend. I tweeted it, but harder to explain in groups of 140 characters.

 

The Diamondbacks are down to a group of ~8. It will come down to the guy that gives them the best deal. 

 

The Astros are locked in on Cameron at 5, but he's a Boras guy. They are working the same strategy as Arizona. Which puts Cameron (and presumably others) in a curious position: Boras guys don't cut pre-draft deals. So taking Cameron at 5 would mean you're committing to paying him ~$4.2m. There is some belief - to guarantee that money - that Boras would cut a deal to see Cameron go at #2, which might even be more than pick 5 money. (If everyone else is willing to take less money, that could lead the Astros to look elsewhere, which would motivate Boras to make some deal.)

 

That would then free the Astros up to take another "deal" guy or one of the guys that falls and pay him less than $4.2m... which essentially frees the Astros up to pay Top 5 money at their next pick or spread a ton of money over the rest of their picks. 

 

At the end of the day, there are a LOT of guys at play at 1, 2 and 5 (at a minimum), so guessing who would be available at #6 is hard to say. It literally could be anyone, except Dillon Tate, I don't believe he falls.

 

What is the scenario where Rodgers falls to 6? I could see Arizona and even Houston not taking him, but how would Colorado and Texas not take him? Yes, I know neither team needs another SS prospect, but still, I just can't see that happening (even though I'd be thrilled if it did).

[markos]

 

What is the scenario where Rodgers falls to 6? I could see Arizona and even Houston not taking him, but how would Colorado and Texas not take him? Yes, I know neither team needs another SS prospect, but still, I just can't see that happening (even though I'd be thrilled if it did).

I have read that Colorado is looking for a pitcher. Maybe they are willing to change gears for Rodgers, but I think there is a legitimate chance they take the best pitcher on the board regardless of who else if available. So I can believe that Colorado passes, but I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Texas passes on him. The only thing I can think of is that they are so confident about their Latin-pipeline's ability to produce middle-infielders that they focus on a different position. 

[gunnarthor]

 

What is the scenario where Rodgers falls to 6? I could see Arizona and even Houston not taking him, but how would Colorado and Texas not take him? Yes, I know neither team needs another SS prospect, but still, I just can't see that happening (even though I'd be thrilled if it did).

DBacks - some underslot deal w/kid who should go around #20 (could happen)

Houston - Cameron on a below slot deal (could happen)

Col - Swanson - (McDaniel reports that he might be #1 on Col board)

Tex - Tate (could happen)

Houston - Tucker or Bregman over Rodgers?  (Could happen, Klaw reported that Houston is off of Rodgers for some reasons.  Maybe he's represented by Close?).  

 

Yeah, it's hard to see Rodgers falling past four.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

DBacks - some underslot deal w/kid who should go around #20 (could happen)

Houston - Cameron on a below slot deal (could happen)

Col - Swanson - (McDaniel reports that he might be #1 on Col board)

Tex - Tate (could happen)

Houston - Tucker or Bregman over Rodgers?  (Could happen, Klaw reported that Houston is off of Rodgers for some reasons.  Maybe he's represented by Close?).  

 

Yeah, it's hard to see Rodgers falling past four.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled for the Twins to get Rodgers at 6. The only pick I'd prefer is maybe Tate. I just really doubt it will happen.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Depending on what Texas does - I've seen them linked to a lot of pitchers - it might leave Colorado choosing between Swanson and Rodgers and the other one falling to - and perhaps past - six. 

 

The threat of that could force Rodgers to less money than he thinks he deserves. 

 

At this point, it's all posturing. The top three - talent-wise - are still Tate, Rodgers and Swanson.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Interesting connection: Kyle Tucker is represented by Jason Romano of Excel Sports. The Astros have been connected to Tucker because Kyle's brother Preston was currently called up by the Astros.

 

The most well-known agent at Excel Sports: Casey Close.

 

It may be too six-degrees-of-Kevin-Bacon and, eventually, the two sides will HAVE to play nice. I'd guess the "net" of issues only traps the Astros and Aiken/Close. Still something to follow.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Chris Crawford of Baseball Prospectus throws out his first mock.

 

He has the Twins taking Funkhouser and notes they've been scouting him hard lately.

[2wins87]

Would the Twins be able to sign Rodgers at #6?  I remember Kiley McDaniel mentioning he'd be looking for at least $5 mil, and the Twins don't have a lot of maneuvering room without a second round pick.  He's got plenty of leverage as a high schooler and is less of an injury risk than a pitcher which potentially makes it easier for him to pass up guaranteed money.

[gunnarthor]

 

Would the Twins be able to sign Rodgers at #6?  I remember Kiley McDaniel mentioning he'd be looking for at least $5 mil, and the Twins don't have a lot of maneuvering room without a second round pick.  He's got plenty of leverage as a high schooler and is less of an injury risk than a pitcher which potentially makes it easier for him to pass up guaranteed money.

They'd probably have a number in mind anyway and know it before hand.  If he goes to school (the Aiken or Appel route) the Twins would have the #7 pick in next years more loaded draft class.  But I don't think the Twins would draft him unless they were sure they could sign him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Would the Twins be able to sign Rodgers at #6?  I remember Kiley McDaniel mentioning he'd be looking for at least $5 mil, and the Twins don't have a lot of maneuvering room without a second round pick.  He's got plenty of leverage as a high schooler and is less of an injury risk than a pitcher which potentially makes it easier for him to pass up guaranteed money.

 

It's impossible to say, but the Twins would definitely know before they pull the trigger. They won't punt the pick.

[Steven Buhr]

 

It's impossible to say, but the Twins would definitely know before they pull the trigger. They won't punt the pick.

Since I'm not very smart on this draft stuff in the first place, I have no qualms about asking a stupid question. So I wil.

 

Why NOT take a chance on punting the pick, if you're the Twins?

 

I keep hearing about how this draft class is so poor, compared the norm. If that's truly the case (and assuming people feel next year's class will be more "normal"), why shouldn't the Twins go ahead and draft Rodgers and try to sign him for something near slot? If his threat of going to college if he doesn't get $5mil is just posturing, you get him for a reasonable amount given his potential. If you lose him, you get the #7 pick in next year's stronger draft, in addition to their regular #1 pick, and the slot money that goes with those picks.

 

It may not be ideal to not have #1 and #2 picks to slot in to your development system, but given the relatively strong talent spread throughout the Twins' farm now, I can't really see it as being the end of the world. Especially if the trade-off is getting a #7 pick in 2016 that would actually be likely to be worth first round money. Maybe you focus on college guys at the top of the draft in 2016, instead of high schoolers, so they can get slotted roughly in to the same level as the HS kid you did't sign in 2015.

 

What am I missing?