Twins chances of making the playoffs this year

[one_eyed_jack]

1-2% seems about right to me.

 

I just can't see it happening. In any other division, I'd probably put it at zero.

 

But I'm not willing to concede yet because:

 

1) This division is full of flawed teams, I don't see anybody running away with it

2) It's not rational to think the magic run will happen, but just for sheets and giggles, it can be fun to try and dream up scenarios of ways it could happen

3) I'm kind of a stubborn bastid - there's always that part of me that will refuse to admit defeat until mathematical elimination

[gil4]

Perhaps the gamma rays ought to hit the scouts so they can find decent pitchers.

That might be asking too much, but we might be able to use the rays to incapacitate the scouts the next time they ask to make a trip to Japan to scout a hot prospect.

[glunn]

You beat me to the punch. As you will see in my last post I am trying to make the peace.

One reason that I like you so much is your development of the Plouffetist philosophy. Your modesty in the regard is admirable. Another admirable quality is your ability to admit a mistake. That was a classy apology, and I sincerely hope that Mr. Double Stitches becomes a valued friend of both of us.

[greengoblinrulz]

Chicago is currently on pace for 84Ws (.521 38-35).

To reach 84 wins....MN needs to go 54-36 or .600 winning percentage.

The Yankees(.611) & TEX (.608) are the only 2 teams currently playing at that level.

So they will have to go from the 4th worst record in baseball to the 3rd best....starting now.

Not gonna happen

Doesnt mean we cant enjoy the remaining part of the season.

[fetch]

Chicago is currently on pace for 84Ws (.521 38-35).

To reach 84 wins....MN needs to go 54-36 or .600 winning percentage.

The Yankees(.611) & TEX (.608) are the only 2 teams currently playing at that level.

So they will have to go from the 4th worst record in baseball to the 3rd best....starting now.

Not gonna happen

Doesnt mean we cant enjoy the remaining part of the season.

That of course assumes Chicago continues playing at their current pace. But yeah it's not going to happen.

 

for the record cool standings gives the Twins a 1.3% chance

[108 Double Stitches]

I hope I have not caused you to have negative energy. Let this post be the extended olive branch of truce and friendship. If you ever have a question about Plouffetism or need a compassionate Twins Daily member to vent upon. Search me out.

 

Bark

1. Happy to hear a more positive response. Thanks for clearing the air and being the bigger man. I guess you are the Torii Hunter and I am the Justin Monreau in this

clubhouse brawl (is that reference too obscure?)

2. There is plenty of blame to go to me too. My messages were sloppy and I poorly articulated my points, making them easy to misread. I found

it really difficult to respond because I felt anything I would write would just amplify things.

 

To be clear, I like Plouffe and his 15 HRs. But I hate it when hitters are hitting just solo HRs, and I do want to see Plouffe's next 15 HRs to have more of the 2-HR and 3-HR variety

mixed in. And the rest of what I wrote was all half-baked expression.

 

For the record, I hate being called a White Sox fan. But I have many friends who are White Sox fans. We just agree to hate each others teams.

But I do appreciate you clowning around. I will include an old bit of clowning around I was a part of from years ago, that

involved the White Sox, Jeff Manship and Seth Stohs. And I have proudly shared this link with many a White Sox fan.

 

"Faustball" question to Sethspeaks and Seth included it in his Q and A with Jeff Manship. The archive is listed here (http://sethspeaks.net/070308.htm)

 

The excerpt is listed below:

The Devil is tired of Faustian deals (trade in souls) and wants to try a Faust-Ball deal. And he finds you.

 

The devil wants this: when you retire you have to become a White Sox fan for life. In exchange, he offers, either:

 

(A) You can make it the majors before the end of 2008 and remain in the majors for at least the next 10 years

 

--OR--

( You can make it to the majors before the end of 2009 and the devil guarantees you make at least 3 MLB all-star teams

So my question: Is being a White Sox fan really all that bad?

 

- Rick

Jeff Manship: Ha ha with options like that I don’t think it would be too hard to be a White Sox fan. I would probably have to choose B, but A is a very compelling choice.

 

[Bark's Lounge]

One reason that I like you so much is your development of the Plouffetist philosophy. Your modesty in the regard is admirable. Another admirable quality is your ability to admit a mistake. That was a classy apology, and I sincerely hope that Mr. Double Stitches becomes a valued friend of both of us.

I hope so too Glunn. I must now go to sleep... very tired. Have an excellent rest of the evening and a great day tomorrow!

 

Bark

[Guest USAFChief]

This post is the worse.

On the other hand, if we keep getting dominate performances like Fragile Frankie gave us tonight, who knows? We just might make the post-season playoffs.

[Bark's Lounge]

1. Happy to hear a more positive response. Thanks for clearing the air and being the bigger man. I guess you are the Torii Hunter and I am the Justin Monreau in this

clubhouse brawl (is that reference too obscure?)

2. There is plenty of blame to go to me too. My messages were sloppy and I poorly articulated my points, making them easy to misread. I found

it really difficult to respond because I felt anything I would write would just amplify things.

 

To be clear, I like Plouffe and his 15 HRs. But I hate it when hitters are hitting just solo HRs, and I do want to see Plouffe's next 15 HRs to have more of the 2-HR and 3-HR variety

mixed in. And the rest of what I wrote was all half-baked expression.

 

For the record, I hate being called a White Sox fan. But I have many friends who are White Sox fans. We just agree to hate each others teams.

But I do appreciate you clowning around. I will include an old bit of clowning around I was a part of from years ago, that

involved the White Sox, Jeff Manship and Seth Stohs. And I have proudly shared this link with many a White Sox fan.

 

"Faustball" question to Sethspeaks and Seth included it in his Q and A with Jeff Manship. The archive is listed here (http://sethspeaks.net/070308.htm)

 

The excerpt is listed below:

The Devil is tired of Faustian deals (trade in souls) and wants to try a Faust-Ball deal. And he finds you.

 

The devil wants this: when you retire you have to become a White Sox fan for life. In exchange, he offers, either:

 

(A) You can make it the majors before the end of 2008 and remain in the majors for at least the next 10 years

 

--OR--

( You can make it to the majors before the end of 2009 and the devil guarantees you make at least 3 MLB all-star teams

So my question: Is being a White Sox fan really all that bad?

 

- Rick

Jeff Manship: Ha ha with options like that I don’t think it would be too hard to be a White Sox fan. I would probably have to choose B, but A is a very compelling choice.

 

Sorry to make this short... I need to hit the hay. The "Faust-Ball" story was funny. I never did consider you to be a "Sux" fan - that is the knife in my sleeve. I look forward to our next meeting when we are allies.

 

Bark

[glunn]

1. Happy to hear a more positive response. Thanks for clearing the air and being the bigger man. I guess you are the Torii Hunter and I am the Justin Monreau in this

clubhouse brawl (is that reference too obscure?)

2. There is plenty of blame to go to me too. My messages were sloppy and I poorly articulated my points, making them easy to misread. I found

it really difficult to respond because I felt anything I would write would just amplify things.

 

To be clear, I like Plouffe and his 15 HRs. But I hate it when hitters are hitting just solo HRs, and I do want to see Plouffe's next 15 HRs to have more of the 2-HR and 3-HR variety

mixed in. And the rest of what I wrote was all half-baked expression.

 

For the record, I hate being called a White Sox fan. But I have many friends who are White Sox fans. We just agree to hate each others teams.

But I do appreciate you clowning around. I will include an old bit of clowning around I was a part of from years ago, that

involved the White Sox, Jeff Manship and Seth Stohs. And I have proudly shared this link with many a White Sox fan.

 

"Faustball" question to Sethspeaks and Seth included it in his Q and A with Jeff Manship. The archive is listed here (http://sethspeaks.net/070308.htm)

 

The excerpt is listed below:

The Devil is tired of Faustian deals (trade in souls) and wants to try a Faust-Ball deal. And he finds you.

 

The devil wants this: when you retire you have to become a White Sox fan for life. In exchange, he offers, either:

 

(A) You can make it the majors before the end of 2008 and remain in the majors for at least the next 10 years

 

--OR--

( You can make it to the majors before the end of 2009 and the devil guarantees you make at least 3 MLB all-star teams

So my question: Is being a White Sox fan really all that bad?

 

- Rick

Jeff Manship: Ha ha with options like that I don’t think it would be too hard to be a White Sox fan. I would probably have to choose B, but A is a very compelling choice.

 

Great post Mr. Stitches. I have a feeling that your brief initial feud with Mr. Lounge will prove to be the beginning of a rewarding friendship.

 

Please note that Mr. Lounge and I are both Plouffetists, which is a loose association based on our heartfelt prayer that Plouffe will keep getting better, and become one of the greatest Twins of all time

.

 

We even have a clubhouse:

[DaveW]

This post is the worse.

I don't see whats wrong with it, clearly he is saying the Twins will miss the playoffs by not winning the division but will allowed to play in a post season bowl game.

I'm guessing it will be the Meinke Car Service Bowl personally.

[twinsnorth49]

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)

But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

 

Pure math: They are 8 games behind the Sux and 5 behind Detroit (in the L column.) If they sweep the Sux they will be 5 games behind them. That's pretty close. But they got to make things happen and not sure that the field management has what it takes to make things happen, especially winning energy...

What exactly is winning energy? Jumping jacks? more butt slapping? Jedi mind tricks? My 6 year old has lots of energy, maybe the Twins should sign him.

[spideyo]

No Cuddyer = No Magic = No Late Season Run

Hey, the Rockies have an even worse record than we do. If we trade Span, we'd have an opening at RF, and a lineup of the M&M boys, The Hammer, Babe Plouffe, Mr. Doom, and Magic Mike could be pretty damn impressive.

 

Improbale? Yes. But slightly more likely than non-lethal super-power level Gamma Ray exposure or Nishioka turning into a superstar

[Brock Beauchamp]

What exactly is winning energy? Jumping jacks? more butt slapping? Jedi mind tricks? My 6 year old has lots of energy, maybe the Twins should sign him.

"Winning Energy" is a rare, nearly unquantifiable power source known to exist only in the deepest, darkest regions of MLB clubhouses. Commanders of this mystical energy are rarely seen in public plying their craft. Rumors have it that the Twins have had two Level Nine Energy Wizards (LNEW) on their roster in recent years and they both happened to be named Mike.

 

One could command laughter upon demand with his zany "find the bunny" magic tricks while the other was best known for channeling his Winning Energy into teammates through nude towel-snapping.

[Chance]

The twins don't have a great chance to make the playoffs. But realistically they are 7.5 back with about half the season left. They win there next 5 games and they could be within 3 games. Not likely but definitely not impossible. .09% is a bit low. More like 5%. I'm not being a homer it's just logical that you can make up 7.5 games in 90 games.

[twinsnorth49]

"Winning Energy" is a rare, nearly unquantifiable power source known to exist only in the deepest, darkest regions of MLB clubhouses. Commanders of this mystical energy are rarely seen in public plying their craft. Rumors have it that the Twins have had two Level Nine Energy Wizards (LNEW) on their roster in recent years and they both happened to be named Mike.

 

One could command laughter upon demand with his zany "find the bunny" magic tricks while the other was best known for channeling his Winning Energy into teammates through nude towel-snapping.

Well screw the farm system, Ryan needs to set up a Wizard school pronto! This is exactly what we've been missing!

[RIP BYTO]

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)

But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

 

Pure math: They are 8 games behind the Sux and 5 behind Detroit (in the L column.) If they sweep the Sux they will be 5 games behind them. That's pretty close. But they got to make things happen and not sure that the field management has what it takes to make things happen, especially winning energy...

There's always one of these guys in the bunch. Your name isn't Sheldon Cooper is it?

[DaveW]

I just checked again:

 

The Twins are still 150:1 to win the division, but strange enough are only 100:1 to win the world series.

[snepp]

They're not just 7.5 back, they're also 7 back, and 5.5 back, and 2.5 back.

 

Being in 2nd at 7.5 back is one thing, but they have to lap every other team in the division as well.

[108 Double Stitches]

The twins don't have a great chance to make the playoffs. But realistically they are 7.5 back with about half the season left. They win there next 5 games and they could be within 3 games. Not likely but definitely not impossible. .09% is a bit low. More like 5%. I'm not being a homer it's just logical that you can make up 7.5 games in 90 games.

Just to point out, the cool standings rely significantly on the run differential (and the conversion of run differntial into expected W-L).

 

The KC royals are just a couple of wins above the twins, but it has them at 5%. And the Detroit Tigers have a higher chance to make

it then the Cleveland Indians even though they are 3 games behind them in the standings.

 

Whats holding the Twins % so low is that the -60 run differential is much worse than their current W-L record. So if you view

the current run differential as somewhat of an aberation, then it follows the Twins are closer to KC royals 5% chance of making the

playoffs. And there is a couple of reasons to buy into that, foremost is a couple of the culprits for the poor run

differential are no longer on the Twins.

 

Just saying, the Twins could win a series of 1-run games and the Cool Standings formula won't give them too much credit on their probability

calculations.

[Chance]

Just to point out, the cool standings rely significantly on the run differential (and the conversion of run differntial into expected W-L).

 

The KC royals are just a couple of wins above the twins, but it has them at 5%. And the Detroit Tigers have a higher chance to make

it then the Cleveland Indians even though they are 3 games behind them in the standings.

 

Whats holding the Twins % so low is that the -60 run differential is much worse than their current W-L record. So if you view

the current run differential as somewhat of an aberation, then it follows the Twins are closer to KC royals 5% chance of making the

playoffs. And there is a couple of reasons to buy into that, foremost is a couple of the culprits for the poor run

differential are no longer on the Twins.

 

Just saying, the Twins could win a series of 1-run games and the Cool Standings formula won't give them too much credit on their probability

calculations.

So what your saying is this is all none sense because it doesn't accurately predict anything. It uses all past results as a means to predict the outcome of the future. Doesn't always work that way. I don't think this percentage thing is worth debating because he doesn't predict a valid arguement.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So what your saying is this is all none sense because it doesn't accurately predict anything. It uses all past results as a means to predict the outcome of the future. Doesn't always work that way. I don't think this percentage thing is worth debating because he doesn't predict a valid arguement.

The playoff prediction algorithms are pretty much a joke. A team could have an awful April where half its team is injured, a mediocre May while they rehab, and be set and ready to go into June/July and be ranked near the bottom of the list. It only takes aggregate performance into account, which isn't much good as rosters change/improve, trades happen, and rookies come into their own.

 

Basically, they're about as useful as fielding percentage.

[108 Double Stitches]

So what your saying is this is all none sense because it doesn't accurately predict anything.

I am not saying that it is nonsense. The model is really accurate when the assumptions are true (you can say that about most models).

 

But if you want hope AND you want to believe in the cool standing model, look to whether the assumptions are still valid for the team (the Twins).

 

Either case, <1% or 5%, the Twins chances are really, really poor. I don't see a debate on that issue. Just copied your post because I aggreed with

you more or less.

 

Anyway, when Las Vegas is willing to let you bet a percentage, its often best to pay attention. They tend to make money off of that.

[Chance]

Not saying its going to happen but if the twins sweep Chicago and kc this week and win each game by 1 run there percent might look the same somewhere around 1% but we could be within 3 games. This is the first I have heard of this model and I don't see it resembling anything close to real percentage or likelyhood of a teams chances of making the postseason. But oh we'll it's fun to argue about!

[fetch]

The playoff prediction algorithms are pretty much a joke. A team could have an awful April where half its team is injured, a mediocre May while they rehab, and be set and ready to go into June/July and be ranked near the bottom of the list. It only takes aggregate performance into account, which isn't much good as rosters change/improve, trades happen, and rookies come into their own.

 

Basically, they're about as useful as fielding percentage.

most of them do none of the things you described. They're not perfect but it's a lot better than going "well if we win these games we're only 3 games back and who knows...that has to be worth a lot of percent!"