TDers Crystal Ball

[alskntwnsfn]

This is a fun time of year for armchair GM's. We get to break down the offseason moves, sound off about opening day roster decisions, and make guesses about the coming year. So, with that in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to get a crystal ball thread going so we could get everyone's takes down in one place. 

 

Here's my take… 

 

The Twins should improve this year, but are still at least a year away from any type of contention (probably more like 2 years). We didn't do enough in FA to improve our run production (i.e. power) or address problems in the bullpen. Our 2015 rotation looks ok on paper, but it's mostly the same names as last year which (outside of Hughes) provided lackluster results. Gibson will likely improve. I'm not expecting Santana to put up the same type of numbers and I'd be shocked if Nolasco turned in a sub-4.25 ERA. 

 

This team really needs a middle of the lineup bat and Torii isn't that. However, I do think he'll be a serviceable bat in the lineup. It will be fun for casual fans to see him again, but I thought that roster spot really needed to be given to someone who could provide more power. Unfortunately, there wasn't many options there in FA. Morse or Cuddyer would have been good, but they aren't really outfielders at this point. Cruz would have been perfect, but four years is probably too long for our situation and he's a poor OF. We are going to have to really scratch for our runs this year. That means working counts, situational hitting, and smart base running. There's also going to be a lot of pressure on Vargas and Plouffe to deliver some power. Hard to see how this offense gets into the top half of the AL. The player I'm highest on is probably Eduardo Escobar. I think he's going to have a really nice .290/.340/.420 type season, and of course it will be fun to see if Vargas and Santana can become top-tier players. I think they both have the ability, but I'm not expecting huge things… just cautiously optimistic. I also think Schafer will prove to be one of the better leadoff hitters in the league (even if he doesn't start the season there). 

 

And then the bullpen… adding Stauffer and Boyer are pretty ho-hum additions. We have starters who could be bullpen studs (May, Meyer, maybe Pelfrey, Berrios, others in lower levels), but the starting bullpen group doesn't impress much outside of Perkins. If we bring those young starters up, the pen could be a strength but at what cost? That might jeopardize their future as starters. I guess I would have liked to see at least another 1 or 2 bigger name NRI's this spring or guys brought in on smaller deals to fill out the thin bullpen. Obviously, the relievers need to miss more bats this year than last season. On the other hand, its hard to fault the front office for not spending on the bullpen coming off four bad seasons.  

 

My picks to surprise (above what is expected by most on the board) are: Escobar, Schafer, and Dozier (who I think makes the All-Star team or at least puts up All-Star caliber numbers). I'm not real high on any of the pitchers, but Hughes should have another great season and I expect Gibson to be one of the better pitchers in the league too (top 1/4 or 1/3 in AL). I think Santana and Nolasco will turn out to be bad investments - I hope they prove me wrong of course, but that's just my gut feeling. And I think we'll see Trevor in the rotation by May day. He'll have his ups/downs, but wind up with a sub 4.60 ERA and a +7.5 K/9.  

 

Overall, I'm guessing 70 to 75 wins. Getting over .500 would reflect very well on Molitor and his staff. In fact, the best part of this year will be seeing what Molitor, Neil Allen, and Guardado bring as coaches. 

[stringer bell]

Regarding power, you didn't mention Arcia at all.  A full season of "good Oswaldo" should yield close to 30 homers.  With a full season, Hunter will make double digits in homers and I expect Mauer to do the same.  Plouffe should be good for at least 15 and if Sano arrives earlier than expected, he might diminish Trevor's numbers, but he'll hit a bunch of his own.  Vargas will hit long balls, too.  There is considerable power potential for the Twins, perhaps the most still Kirby, Herbie, Bruno and Rat.  Someone will disappoint, that is part of the game. 

 

I have said for awhile that I expect the Twins to improve dramatically.  I'm going with 85 wins.  In order for them to do that, they need considerable improvement from their rotation.  I expect Gibson to be much improved, I expect Nolasco and Hughes to regress to the mean resulting in a small improvement, but Santana is a good middle of the rotation guy and the Twins are bound to get improvement from what they got for fifth starters in 2014.  I expect the bullpen to be far more fluid, with hard throwers eventually replacing most of the middle guys that will start the season. 

 

I like the amount of talent that the Twins have accrued.  The reinforcements at Rochester and Chattanooga offer the potential of far better days really soon. 85 wins, it is. 

[alskntwnsfn]

I didn't forget about Arcia, it's just he is somewhat enigmatic. Arcia is always trying to go yard, so I don't think he'll have as much pressure on him to produce. He played in fewer games than I thought last year, so maybe you're right. He could hit 30 this year, but if it's a Mark Reynolds type 30 HRs then it won't mean nearly as much. He's certainly got the talent to do more than that, so we'll see. 

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins WILL improve.  81W's 81L's could be a stretch.  I view pitching as the issue.  My thoughts:

Upside: 

 

Mauer It has been reveled he had a bad left leg over the past 2 years.  It's also been report that it is all better now.  I expect .300+, 12 HR+ 40 2B+ next year.  His defense is also been said to be significantly better in Spring Training

 

Arcia  Sounds like he may be on a short leash.  I do not know if that is true.  But, not surprising. But I believe he's more than capable of tuning back the all-or-nothing BP swing, under a firm hand by Tom Brunansky.  .260 would be nice, 30HR's well within reach.

 

D. Santana  I'm the opposite of most TD'ers:  I believe Santana will improve.  Mostly because 405 AB's is a pretty good sample size.  Good eye at the plate, plus quick wrists and instincts = BA stay in .300 range, K's and BB both go i opposite directlons, 2B up significantly.  IF, and only if, the Twins finally give up on a Schaefer/Robinson rotation and IF Rosario can't handle CF in MiLB, Santana becomes a fulltime CF  Which means......

 

Escobar  is a starting SS.  433 AB's are another good sample size and his Spring Training has been good.  Given enough AB's, I'd expect similar number compared to last year.

 

I see more question marks in Hunter, Plouffe, Vargas, Suzuki, Hicks and the 2 CF'ers than I do in the 4 previously mentioned.  I actually don't expect Hicks to be back in the MLB.  Then there is the "wish and a prayer" known as the Twins Starting Pitcher.

 

E. Santana, Rick Nolasco and Tom Milone do not inspire confidence in me.  Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson had good, not great, years.  OK, good for Twins pitchers.  Both were allowed to throw more innings in an already lost year than they should have and may face a downturn because of that.  Bullpen?  Bringing in more 30+ former starters doesn't seem like any kind of answer to me.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

I think they can be a .500ish team.  I don't see a lot of really bad players on this team like we have the last few years.  There isn't a Parmelee or Collabello getting 300 at-bats or a rotation with Hendriks, Diamond or Worley in it.  Hopefully, Mauer can be the player we saw a bit in the second half of last season and Arcia's bat makes another jump.

 

I think Gibson has a big, Tim Hudson-like breakout season for us.  I think Vargas fails at DH but Rosario comes up and plugs some holes in LF and Arcia gets more bats at DH (although Molitor ends up platooning him against lefties).  I do think Buxton comes up and excites us.

 

I'm mostly worried about Nolasco.  I think Hughes, Santana and Gibson will all pitch well enough and if Milone fails, they won't have an issue bringing someone up to replace him.  But if Nolasco and his big contract are struggling, how long will the team stick with him?  I'm not sure.

 

And I think the bullpen we see at the end of the year - Perkins, Graham, Burdi, maybe Reed, possibly Meyer or May will be a lot better than the one we see in April.

[jimmer]

Our catcher is the same, our 1B is the same, our DH is the same, our 2B is the same, our 3B is the same, our shortstop is the guy we had in CF and the shortstop who played pretty well is on the bench.  Our OF has new people in two spots: an almost 40 year old with bad defense and platoon of journeymen in CF.

 

Our rotation s loaded with 4 of the guys we had last year.  This team is not much different than last year. Not sure how the starting position players, as a group, could be considered any better than last year.

[dbminn]

Terry Ryan has assembled a team with a mixed message - partially building for the future and partially relying on veterans to "win now". The results will also be mixed. I suspect the Twins will win about 75. Prospects will be brought up in reaction to injuries and failures, instead of starting the year with youngsters on the team.

 

Mauer returns to his 2012-2013 level and improves at 1B. Rosario will be with the team by the All-Star break to provide a bat for CF and as a late-inning glove for LF. May takes over for Millone or an injured pitcher as the year progresses. Hughes and Santana regress, but not as much as the computer models suggest.

 

Gibson is the breakout player of the year. Dozier will rock.

 

Vargas is a big question heading into the year. Is he the August Vargas or will he need to be sent back to the minors for seasoning? Berrios, Burdi and Sano will wear a Twins uniform this year. Sadly, because of all the veterans on the team, it may be only in September.

 

I would also love to predict that the Twins will be active at the trading deadline, moving Pelfrey, Nolasco, Duensing, Fien and Nunez. I just can't see Ryan actually pulling the trigger.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think they can be a .500ish team.  I don't see a lot of really bad players on this team like we have the last few years.  There isn't a Parmelee or Collabello getting 300 at-bats

Parmelee, career: 96 OPS+

Colabello: 80

 

(Neither in the opening day 2014 lineup, BTW)

 

Schafer: 72

Robinson: 69

Suzuki: 89

 

(All 3 at the top of our 2015 opening day depth chart)

 

or a rotation with Hendriks, Diamond or Worley in it.

Hendriks, career high IP: 85

Worley: only 48 IP with the Twins

 

Those two guys weren't sinking our rotations.

 

Furthermore:

 

Worley, career ERA+: 103

Diamond: 92

 

(And none of the above in our 2014 rotation, BTW)

 

Santana: 99

Hughes: 95

Nolasco: 91

Milone: 97

Pelfrey: 88

Gibson: 81

 

And not quoting 2014 numbers is being favorable to everyone here but Hughes and Gibson (88 ERA+).

 

Now, I like our current group better than any rotation we've fielded since 2011, but that's more of a condemnation of the 2012-2014 rotation plans than an endorsement of the current group.  And there's still plenty of downside risk here, especially when considering guaranteed contractual commitments.

 

No doubt they can be a ".500ish" team, but even that might not be much of an improvement.  They had 75 pythag wins in 2014.  There's no reason we shouldn't have been shooting for "above .500".

[Danchat]

 

There isn't a Parmelee or Collabello getting 300 at-bats

Yeah, this year it's going to be Jordan Schafer and whoever takes over CF if somebody gets hurt. 

 

Oh... Dang it, Spycake, you just stole my thought.

[nicksaviking]

So are we making predictions here?  Because if we are, here are mine:

 

Jose Berrios will get called up before Alex Meyer (due to injury or performance, the crystal ball does not show).

 

And Byron Buxton will be wearing a Twins uniform before Aaron Hicks does, which won't be until September for the later but will be in July for the former, less due to performance of the player and more out of desperation at the CF position at the MLB level.

[70charger]

 

Parmelee, career: 96 OPS+

Colabello: 80

 

(Neither in the opening day 2014 lineup, BTW)

 

Schafer: 72

Robinson: 69

Suzuki: 89

 

(All 3 at the top of our 2015 opening day depth chart)

 

Hendriks, career high IP: 85

Worley: only 48 IP with the Twins

 

Those two guys weren't sinking our rotations.

 

Furthermore:

 

Worley, career ERA+: 103

Diamond: 92

 

(And none of the above in our 2014 rotation, BTW)

 

Santana: 99

Hughes: 95

Nolasco: 91

Milone: 97

Pelfrey: 88

Gibson: 81

 

And not quoting 2014 numbers is being favorable to everyone here but Hughes and Gibson (88 ERA+).

 

Now, I like our current group better than any rotation we've fielded since 2011, but that's more of a condemnation of the 2012-2014 rotation plans than an endorsement of the current group.  And there's still plenty of downside risk here, especially when considering guaranteed contractual commitments.

 

No doubt they can be a ".500ish" team, but even that might not be much of an improvement.  They had 75 pythag wins in 2014.  There's no reason we shouldn't have been shooting for "above .500".

 

 

You're comparing 1B/corner outfielders to catchers/center fielders? Cool story.

 

Next you're honestly going to imply that our pitchers are worse than they were in 2013 because Worley has a higher career ERA+ than Hughes and Diamond is higher than Gibson. 

 

Tell me with a straight face that you'd rather have Diamond and Worley in the rotation. This looks like cherry-picking.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Parmelee, career: 96 OPS+

Colabello: 80

 

(Neither in the opening day 2014 lineup, BTW)

 

Schafer: 72

Robinson: 69

Suzuki: 89

 

(All 3 at the top of our 2015 opening day depth chart)

 

Hendriks, career high IP: 85

Worley: only 48 IP with the Twins

 

Those two guys weren't sinking our rotations.

 

Furthermore:

 

Worley, career ERA+: 103

Diamond: 92

 

(And none of the above in our 2014 rotation, BTW)

 

Santana: 99

Hughes: 95

Nolasco: 91

Milone: 97

Pelfrey: 88

Gibson: 81

 

And not quoting 2014 numbers is being favorable to everyone here but Hughes and Gibson (88 ERA+).

 

Now, I like our current group better than any rotation we've fielded since 2011, but that's more of a condemnation of the 2012-2014 rotation plans than an endorsement of the current group.  And there's still plenty of downside risk here, especially when considering guaranteed contractual commitments.

 

No doubt they can be a ".500ish" team, but even that might not be much of an improvement.  They had 75 pythag wins in 2014.  There's no reason we shouldn't have been shooting for "above .500".

Comparing LFers to CFers and catchers, bat only?  Nicely done.   Is there any other possible comparison that would have made sense to the reader in the original context?

 

Let's see:

Suzuki 2.2 WAR

Parmelee  -1.0 WAR

 

Schafer .3 WAR

Colabello -1.0 WAR

 

And, I guess the same is true of the pitchers

Hughes 4.2 WAR

Gibson 2.0 WAR

Nolasco 0.0 WAR

Santana 1.2 WAR
Milone 0.1 WAR

 

Obviously bWAR and fWAR are different (and in some cases, substantially so) and WAR has serious problems, esp with defense.  But the players they are counting on to start the season weren't negative players as they have been in years past.  To get to .500ish the Twins need to add about 10 WAR.  They can do that by getting better but also by having fewer really bad players like they have had in previous season (Worley, Parm, Kubel, Colabello, Diamond etc).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You're comparing 1B/corner outfielders to catchers/center fielders? Cool story.

 

Next you're honestly going to imply that our pitchers are worse than they were in 2013 because Worley has a higher career ERA+ than Hughes and Diamond is higher than Gibson. 

 

Tell me with a straight face that you'd rather have Diamond and Worley in the rotation. This looks like cherry-picking.

Look at the post I was responding to before putting words into my mouth, please.

 

The point was that the "bad players" the original poster cited had little or nothing to do with our recent poor records (neither of the two batters were projected as starters in 2014, and none of the pitchers cited threw a single pitch for us in 2014 and some threw very few innings for us before that too).  It took a lot of injury and underperformance by other players (some still on the team) to be that bad.

 

And even some of those "bad players" cited weren't forecast to be such "bad players" (hence looking at their career ERA+ numbers).

[jimmer]

We have a lot of regression candidates (Santana, Hughes, Escobar and maybe some slight regression from Dozier and Plouffe).  Their regression would not be in the positive.  

 

Is there anyone other than Mauer we actually expect a much better performance than what we saw in 2014 (and some don't think that)?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Comparing LFers to CFers and catchers, bat only?  Nicely done.   Is there any other possible comparison that would have made sense to the reader in the original context?

I wasn't trying to compare positions.  You can leave off the 2015 comparable stats if you want.

 

 

You singled out two "bad players who got 300 AB" (only one of whom once reached that threshold, back in 2013, BTW), and said we don't have them anymore.  But guess what?  We "didn't have them" in 2014 too, when both were projected to bench and AAA depth duty.

 

Same with the pitchers.  (Actually none of the pitchers you cited as weaknesses threw a single regular season pitch for the 2014 Twins.)

 

Almost no team in baseball thinks they will give playing time to guys like that, or thinks that their current projected opening day starters will fall to that level.

 

You could have made the same post in March of 2012, 2013, or 2014, just changing the names of the various "bad players" we were leaving behind.

[jimmer]

I predict to finish 70-92.

 

I predict a bounceback season for Mauer with w wRC+ in the 130s. 

I predict D. Santana regresses but still provides league average offense.

I predict Milone gets beat like a drum as does Nolasco.

I predict E Santana has a season ERA over 4.25.

I predict Dozier continues to improve, with no regression.

I predict Plouffe's defense stays as good as it was last year.

I predict Suzuki to have his OPS in the mid-low 600s.

I predict our rotation to finish bottom 5 in ERA.

I predict our OF defense ranks last in the majors. Unless Buxton and Rosario get called up to man spots for a decent amount of time, which I don't predict.

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

We have a lot of regression candidates (Santana, Hughes, Escobar and maybe some slight regression from Dozier and Plouffe).  Their regression would not be in the positive.  

 

Is there anyone other than Mauer we actually expect a much better performance than what we saw in 2014 (and some don't think that)?

I would expect that Nolasco, GIbson and Arcia improve for sure.  Nolasco had never had a season that bad and, like Mauer, looked better after he came back from injury.  I think Gibson and Arcia are both breakout candidates.  Perkins and Mauer are questions.  I think Mauer isn't as good as some but he should still be better.  Perkins injury concerns me but, if healthy, he should be closer to 2013 levels than 2014.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By the way, I really liked how you moved the goalposts here so you complain even if they finish 81-81.  

I wasn't setting a goalpost.  Where in post was I setting a goalpost?

 

I said if your goalpost and the teams's goalpost is ".500ish" that's not terribly ambitious.  But I guess neither is putting the primary blame for 2012-2014 on Parmelee, Colabello, Hendriks, Diamond, and Worley either...

[gunnarthor]

 

 

You singled out two "bad players who got 300 AB" (only one of whom once reached that threshold, back in 2013,

 

 

Gosh, good think I said "the last few years".  Sheesh.  

[gunnarthor]

 

 

I predict our OF defense ranks last in the majors. Unless Buxton and Rosario get called up to man spots for a decent amount of time, which I don't predict.

I don't think you are giving Houston or Cleveland enough "credit".  (Unless Cleveland made a move that I don't remember).  Houston is going with Gattis/Rasmus/Springer.  

[jimmer]

 

I don't think you are giving Houston or Cleveland enough "credit".  (Unless Cleveland made a move that I don't remember).  Houston is going with Gattis/Rasmus/Springer.  

yeah, I think they have better OF defense. We were last in DRS, by a good margin, last year and we added Hunter which isn't going to make it any better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gosh, good think I said "the last few years".  Sheesh.  

Sorry, sometimes folks mis-remember how much playing time these folks actually got.

 

Nunez had basically as much playing time in 2014 as Colabello (and pretty much Parmelee too), for example.  And he's still on the team.  Hicks too, and he's been a pretty comparable performer to Schafer/Robinson.

 

Hendriks and Worley are a couple more examples where their impact has been exaggerated since their departure. Neither threw many innings for us, and Hendriks was never even projected to be in the opening day rotation (he filled in for Diamond to open 2013).

 

All of which seems relevant when you're making an "addition by subtraction" argument for improved performance.  We're just not subtracting that much with these guys.