BP article on the Twins

[gunnarthor]

Pretty interesting write up at BP. Basically reaffirms that Ryan is doing what he's already done - build up through player development.

 

"Can the Twins pull themselves back into contention by doing the one thing every other team tries to do, only better? Of course. Minnesota's farm system is currently rated no. 2 overall by our prospect gurus, and if Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios and Nick Gordon and Nick Burdi turn out to be really, really good, the Twins will become a leviathan that no amount of shifting, analyzing, or inefficiency-leveraging by their opponents will be able to stop. If not, they'll pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and start all over again. It's the Minnesota way."

[Mike Sixel]

So, if all their draft picks work, they'll be good?

 

Heavy analysis there.

[nytwinsfan]

Great, well-written article. Highly recommend to everyone. Thanks.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Great, well-written article. Highly recommend to everyone. Thanks.

 

So, if all their draft picks work, they'll be good?

 

Heavy analysis there.

Well, he's also saying they seem to have drafted (and traded for) prospects quite well, and that that is 90% of the rebuilding game.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure how we can conclude the trades have worked. Span has been valuable, they have nothing to show for him now three ST in. Revere was traded for two guys that have contributed negative WAR, one of whom was cut, and the other is in a battle to even make the roster this year. Both are already 25.....Who else have they traded for that has helped the team?

 

As for the draft, I'm told repeatedly that they are drafting well now because they have been so bad at the MLB level, not because they are better at drafting. I think it is both, but that's not what I'm told here over and over when I complain about their drafts last decade.......

[gunnarthor]

 

So, if all their draft picks work, they'll be good?

 

Heavy analysis there.

Yeah, that's exactly what he said.  -sigh-

 

 

[bird]

Interesting. Although I don't totally agree with the idea that they're doing precisely the same thing. For one, the Twins now have a budget that doesn't border on ridiculous. Also, the Twins made a financial and strategic commitment to invest competitively internationally, including staffing, facilities, and the signing budget. Contrary to what some of my friends believe, I see Sano as being symbolic of this commitment, not some one-off deal, and this is supported by subsequent signings of top-tier prospects like Minier, Diaz, Thorpe, Kepler, Ynoa et al. Naturally, someone will respond that the Twins haven't signed any Cubans, and I don't think this signifies anything but a belief that signing a few of the likes of Miguel Sano and Wander Javier for $3-4M apiece makes a lot more sense than signing one Yasmany Tomas for $40-50M.

 

The other thing that concerns me is that much of what's taken place in baseball has evened the playing field between clubs, things like allotments and the inevitable international draft. This takes away much of any advantage a team committed to scouting resources has over another team less competent. Also, the trend appears to be toward acquiring and developing, so more teams have built terrific scouting organizations. This makes it close to impossible to do what the author claims the Twins are trying to do, which is to do it better.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with birdwatcher, it is clear the budget is waaaaaay different than it used to be. It is also clear they have somewhat tried to buy their way out of being awful (at least in the short term). 

 

I don't agree that signing international guys withing the MLB approved budget proves anything about signing guys for big money, but then my friend knew I'd reply that way.

 

So far, they've received nothing for those investments, while those that bought the correct Cubans (like, with good scouting and stuff), have received value. That has actual value to a team, unlike guys that have not made it past A ball.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, that's exactly what he said.  -sigh-

 

I was responding to your post, not the whole article. The whole article largely ignores the budget changes, imo, as birdwatcher pointed out. 

[bird]

 

Not sure how we can conclude the trades have worked. Span has been valuable, they have nothing to show for him now three ST in. Revere was traded for two guys that have contributed negative WAR, one of whom was cut, and the other is in a battle to even make the roster this year. Both are already 25.....Who else have they traded for that has helped the team?

 

As for the draft, I'm told repeatedly that they are drafting well now because they have been so bad at the MLB level, not because they are better at drafting. I think it is both, but that's not what I'm told here over and over when I complain about their drafts last decade.......

 

 

Hahaha, here we go again.

 

You continue to bring up those two trades as your argument that they have been lousy at trades. Apparently, the jury's in for you on this. We get that. Some of us disagree, and, for the sake of fairness and a more truthful look at things, would suggest reviewing the entire body of work over some reasonable period of time. Say, since Billy Smith made a slew of horrible trades that every one of us on TD agrees were horrible.

 

Even more to the point, ask this question: since coming back, who has he had to trade that was going to bring anything back in return. Other than Revere and Span, who at least half of us thought were good trade decisions at the time? I know. Liriano. Sheesh.

 

And mikey mikey mikey....hahaha. I really believe the responses to your frequent comments about how badly the Twins were at drafting have been extremely consistent on here and fair-minded. In fact, I can't recall a single contributor who:

 

1. Has claimed the Twins are anything more than perhaps above -average at drafting or at developing. I see that you've now changed your vote though. You have always consistently been in the camp that they are at best no better and at worst inferior, right?

 

2. Has excused the Twins for draft "mistakes" OTHER than to point out three things: that it's been documented that drafting early as opposed to late, especially over many years, will make a team look like geniuses; that sometimes a good draft decision ends up with a poor result. Examples being Wimmers for the Twins and Oscar Tavaras for the Cards; and that every team has busts.

 

So isn't this cool? We're finally on the same page about the Twins and drafting. The Twins are good at it, and drafting early is extremely helpful.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, the article said they had partially rebuilt their system right now through trades.....who have they traded for what, IN THIS REBUILD, to get better? I was responding to the article's statement that they are partially rebuilding through trades. I wasn't talking about who they had available, or anything else. Just responding to that part of the article. Was that not clear somehow?

 

I've always conceded it is easier to draft early. I've consistently said that if your strategy is to build through the draft, you have to be BETTER AT IT than everyone else, or your strategy is flawed. Given that the Twins are now actively spending money on veterans, maybe they now agree with me, that you can't ONLY build through the draft.........But, if your strategy is to build through the draft, and signing guys within the league mandated international budgets, you have to be better than everyone else, or it won't work. Heck, you said that in your post. Nothing in that argument has changed at all from my side. They did not draft well enough when they were drafting later in round 1 to be good. I don't even know how that can be argued.

[bird]

If signing guys that rank highly by BA (to cite one reference) doesn't mean anything, then why do the people who rank the Twins as having the second best farm system always mention Sano, Polanco, Thorpe, Rosario, Minier, Diaz, Ynoa, Kepler, Romero, Santana, Vargas as reasons the Twins are so highly regarded?

 

The Twins have been competitive in bidding for guys other than through the Cuban auctions.

[bird]

I missed any reference in the article about the Twins currently rebuilding through trades. Might you be mistaken mike?

 

[Mike Sixel]

Ah, the post above mine said that, I only skimmed the article. 

 

I'm still waiting for the farm system to produce.....if Arcia goes down, and Santana regresses, and Meyer and May are in the minors, and no RP could crack this awesome bullpen (a bullpen so good they are scouring the waiver wire, apparently).....well, I'm still waiting.

 

Once they produce, then we can say they did a good job rebuilding. Until then, they haven't.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm as excited as most to see Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, Stewart, Berrios et. al. I'm just not counting on them all working out. 

 

But, I don't find it particularly satisfying to root for a team that loses 90+ games this long (get back to me when the A's do it two years in a row under Beane)......I don't find any great satisfaction in having a highly ranked minor league system. Others do, that's cool. I'm happy for them. But I'm more into how the MLB team is doing.

[bird]

I won't beat a dead horse here, but to clarify what the Twins have always said, they believe in building PRIMARILY from the ground up. They have very consistently said they'll look at all avenues. Like the Cards, their least attractive option is FA, but alas, and clearly with typical Ryan reluctance, he had to resort to that option to a greater extent. And yes, due to BOTH a few poor draft decisions and a couple unfortunate draft results, most notably Gibson and Wimmers being set back by injury.

 

I get it that the Twins disagree with a lot of fans about how much the budget should be, or which FA should be signed, or whether it's prudent to put a high bid on the Yas Tomas's, and how patient they should be, and all that. Often, reasonable arguments get made on both side of those decisions. The thing is, no one is arguing that they failed to be any good over the last four years, right?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Alas, no one can argue that last point. Hopefully it won't be another lost season by week 4.....

[bird]

 

Ah, the post above mine said that, I only skimmed the article. 

 

I'm still waiting for the farm system to produce.....if Arcia goes down, and Santana regresses, and Meyer and May are in the minors, and no RP could crack this awesome bullpen (a bullpen so good they are scouring the waiver wire, apparently).....well, I'm still waiting.

 

Once they produce, then we can say they did a good job rebuilding. Until then, they haven't.

Can't wait to feel your newfound joy, mike. Maybe as early as 2016. Sorry you can't find joy in watching it all slowly unfold.

[Mike Sixel]

there are lots of moments of joy, but for some reason I'm not enjoying the journey like I did when they rebuilt the last two times. I think it is that then, they called up guys and let them struggle (and sometimes sent them back down).....this time doesn't feel that fun. That might be that I'm 51 (almost, next week), and watch less sports and enjoy them less in general. 

[jimmer]

 

there are lots of moments of joy, but for some reason I'm not enjoying the journey like I did when they rebuilt the last two times. I think it is that then, they called up guys and let them struggle (and sometimes sent them back down).....this time doesn't feel that fun. That might be that I'm 51 (almost, next week), and watch less sports and enjoy them less in general. 

maybe it's because we keep having the 'projected year it gets good again' backed up?  It was 2014, then it was 2015 then it's maybe 2016 and each time the praise for rebuild is strong?

 

How long did it take Ryan to rebuild the first time he took over until we finally became competitive again?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting. Although I don't totally agree with the idea that they're doing precisely the same thing. For one, the Twins now have a budget that doesn't border on ridiculous. Also, the Twins made a financial and strategic commitment to invest competitively internationally, including staffing, facilities, and the signing budget. Contrary to what some of my friends believe, I see Sano as being symbolic of this commitment, not some one-off deal, and this is supported by subsequent signings of top-tier prospects like Minier, Diaz, Thorpe, Kepler, Ynoa et al. Naturally, someone will respond that the Twins haven't signed any Cubans, and I don't think this signifies anything but a belief that signing a few of the likes of Miguel Sano and Wander Javier for $3-4M apiece makes a lot more sense than signing one Yasmany Tomas for $40-50M.

 

The other thing that concerns me is that much of what's taken place in baseball has evened the playing field between clubs, things like allotments and the inevitable international draft. This takes away much of any advantage a team committed to scouting resources has over another team less competent. Also, the trend appears to be toward acquiring and developing, so more teams have built terrific scouting organizations. This makes it close to impossible to do what the author claims the Twins are trying to do, which is to do it better.

I agree Sano represents a bit of a turning point, although I also think he was a "one-off deal" in that the Twins participated in (and won) a bidding war.  (Kepler too, although that was a bidding war of much lower stakes.)

 

They didn't do that before, but they haven't really done it since either -- according to BA, we barely cracked the top 30 international bonus lists for 2010 and 2011, at sub-Kepler levels:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611344.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613091.html

 

And then in 2012 the new rules took effect, and so far we've played well within the rules.

 

I think the new draft spending rules (and hopefully the next set of international spending rules) actually help the Twins in that regard.  Anything that reduces or eliminates those bidding wars is a good thing given the current Twins front office.

[USAFChief]

 

maybe it's because we keep having the 'projected year it gets good again' backed up?  It was 2014, then it was 2015 then it's maybe 2016 and each time the praise for rebuild is strong?

 

 

Precisely.

 

 Also, "rebuilds" are hard and often don't work.  People just assume Sano, Buxton et al will not only be good major leaguers, but it's a guarantee that when they are, the Twins will win.

 

The first part of that equation isn't even assured, much less the second.

[bird]

whose projections are you talking about, jimmer? and whose praise?

 

Ryan has consistently cautioned fans about "no shortcuts", so aside from the standard media interview gibberish that should always be ignored, "we want to win now" pablum that they all spew to the beat writers, I really don't think the Twins have given us a bunch of revised timetables. Just four crappy seasons.

 

As far as on TD, there hasn't been an abundance of overly optimistic projections for three years, really. Not a boatload of praise either.

[Mike Sixel]

I look forward to praising them loudly someday*

 

 

*though, assuming I do move out West this summer, my days here may be numbered. I'm sure the ad rates will drop, but you'll all survive.....

[USAFChief]

 

I look forward to praising them loudly someday*

 

 

*though, assuming I do move out West this summer, my days here may be numbered. I'm sure the ad rates will drop, but you'll all survive.....

I don't know about the rest of the "out West," Mike, but here in Arizona we have the interwebs.  At least in my part.  Can't speak for Phoenix, as I try very hard to avoid it.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know how my sports interests will change when I move, it will be one of the interesting things. I know some MN become bigger MN fans, to stay in touch. I know others that pretty much abandoned MN sports.....

[markos]

 

I agree Sano represents a bit of a turning point, although I also think he was a "one-off deal" in that the Twins participated in (and won) a bidding war.  (Kepler too, although that was a bidding war of much lower stakes.)

 

They didn't do that before, but they haven't really done it since either -- according to BA, we barely cracked the top 30 international bonus lists for 2010 and 2011, at sub-Kepler levels:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611344.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613091.html

 

And then in 2012 the new rules took effect, and so far we've played well within the rules.

 

I think the new draft spending rules (and hopefully the next set of international spending rules) actually help the Twins in that regard.  Anything that reduces or eliminates those bidding wars is a good thing given the current Twins front office.

Those lists do demonstrate that the Twins, though not the biggest player in the international market, are solidly in the top half of all teams. The 60 players listed were split among only 21 teams , and 8 teams signed only one. The Twins signed two, which by this flawed metric is top-half. And this is just a list of the high paid players, which may or may not perfectly reflect the teams' total investment for the season. There are a lot of clubs (and high-revenue clubs) that make little or no effort to sign players in the July 2 market, such as Bal, Was, NYM, Phi, Col, Cin, Mia and Cle. Even staying within the new spending rules, the Twins are still investing more money and signing more players than many (probably most) of their peers. They aren't the biggest spender out there, but I think they are solidly above-average.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As far as on TD, there hasn't been an abundance of overly optimistic projections for three years, really. Not a boatload of praise either.

 

This is true, but that hasn't stopped some optimists.  Not that long ago people were saying 2016 World Champions.  It happened, the problem is that those who have preached "whoa!" to such predictions have been painted as negative nancys. 

 

There is a strange dynamic that those who are bored with the rebuilding are more patient in their expectations than those professing their love for the rebuild.  

[Thrylos]

 

Interesting. Although I don't totally agree with the idea that they're doing precisely the same thing. For one, the Twins now have a budget that doesn't border on ridiculous. Also, the Twins made a financial and strategic commitment to invest competitively internationally, including staffing, facilities, and the signing budget. Contrary to what some of my friends believe, I see Sano as being symbolic of this commitment, not some one-off deal, and this is supported by subsequent signings of top-tier prospects like Minier, Diaz, Thorpe, Kepler, Ynoa et al. Naturally, someone will respond that the Twins haven't signed any Cubans, and I don't think this signifies anything but a belief that signing a few of the likes of Miguel Sano and Wander Javier for $3-4M apiece makes a lot more sense than signing one Yasmany Tomas for $40-50M.

 

The other thing that concerns me is that much of what's taken place in baseball has evened the playing field between clubs, things like allotments and the inevitable international draft. This takes away much of any advantage a team committed to scouting resources has over another team less competent. Also, the trend appears to be toward acquiring and developing, so more teams have built terrific scouting organizations. This makes it close to impossible to do what the author claims the Twins are trying to do, which is to do it better.

 

 

Ok ok ok

 

Got to really separate things.  When the Twins made all the international investments (including signing Sano,)  Terry Ryan was not the General Manager.

 

Remember?

 

When the Twins were contending at the deadline and a General Manager decided to trade prospects to get the Twins ahead, it was not Terry Ryan

 

Remember?

 

Terry Ryan was the guy who tried to fix 99+96 with Correia and Pelfrey and got 96.  Terry Ryan is the guy who would hold onto the Scott Stahoviaks of the world until the second coming.  Terry Ryan is the guy who thinks that Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and Kevin Correia and (unfortunately not Neil) Scott Diamond are wonderful as rotation anchors.

 

Blah...

[h2oface]

 

Precisely.

 

 Also, "rebuilds" are hard and often don't work.  People just assume Sano, Buxton et al will not only be good major leaguers, but it's a guarantee that when they are, the Twins will win.

 

The first part of that equation isn't even assured, much less the second.

The Marlins seem to have done it in about 2 years........