Grantland article about WAR

[amjgt]

This perhaps belongs in the "other baseball" forum, but I'm tying it loosely to the Twins, so.....

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adam-dunn-juan-pierre-why-we-need-wins-above-replacement-stat/

 

This article breaks down each aspect of the WAR metric and specifically compares Juan Pierre and Adam Dunn, who both played for 14 years and recently retired. (Spoiler Alert: The have the same WAR)

 

In general it's an interesting article but this paragraph, toward the end, was most noteworthy to me:

 

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Although WAR reveals that Pierre and Dunn were equally valuable to their teams, their teams weren’t equally generous to them. From a financial perspective, it was far better to be Dunn, who retired with $112.7 million in career earnings, almost twice Pierre’s $57.1 million take. When economist Matt Swartz studied spending on free agents in the Hardball Times Annual 2013, he found that defense, baserunning, and contact were all undervalued skills, and that walks weren’t, which helps explains the disparity. More’s the pity for Pierre. On the other hand, WAR reveals that Dunn and Pierre were both lucky to be as well known as they were; given that an average player amasses roughly two WAR in a single full season, Dunn’s and Pierre’s career totals aren’t particularly impressive. As Bill James once wrote, “Specialists and players who do two or three things well are overrated; players who do several things well are underrated.” Dunn’s power and walk rate and Pierre’s contact skills and speed made them more visible than the more well-rounded (but less eye-catching) recent retiree Mark Ellis, who produced far more WAR in far less playing time.

 

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In my opinion, the Twins, for at least the last 5 years, probably longer, have been falling into the traps that I've highlighted.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As Bill James once wrote, “Specialists and players who do two or three things well are overrated; players who do several things well are underrated.”

Paging Trevor Plouffe.

[gunnarthor]

This perhaps belongs in the "other baseball" forum, but I'm tying it loosely to the Twins, so.....

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/adam-dunn-juan-pierre-why-we-need-wins-above-replacement-stat/

 

This article breaks down each aspect of the WAR metric and specifically compares Juan Pierre and Adam Dunn, who both played for 14 years and recently retired. (Spoiler Alert: The have the same WAR)

 

In general it's an interesting article but this paragraph, toward the end, was most noteworthy to me:

 

----------------

 

Although WAR reveals that Pierre and Dunn were equally valuable to their teams, their teams weren’t equally generous to them. From a financial perspective, it was far better to be Dunn, who retired with $112.7 million in career earnings, almost twice Pierre’s $57.1 million take. When economist Matt Swartz studied spending on free agents in the Hardball Times Annual 2013, he found that defense, baserunning, and contact were all undervalued skills, and that walks weren’t, which helps explains the disparity. More’s the pity for Pierre. On the other hand, WAR reveals that Dunn and Pierre were both lucky to be as well known as they were; given that an average player amasses roughly two WAR in a single full season, Dunn’s and Pierre’s career totals aren’t particularly impressive. As Bill James once wrote, “Specialists and players who do two or three things well are overrated; players who do several things well are underrated.” Dunn’s power and walk rate and Pierre’s contact skills and speed made them more visible than the more well-rounded (but less eye-catching) recent retiree Mark Ellis, who produced far more WAR in far less playing time.

 

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In my opinion, the Twins, for at least the last 5 years, probably longer, have been falling into the traps that I've highlighted.

On free agents, the Twins haven't really done much there period so I don't think there is much of a history to go on.  Suzuki and Hammer are the two "big" signs for hitters.  Obviously, Hammer met more of the highlighted criteria whereas Suzuki had some of underrated ones.  But, basically, Twins haven't really spent much in FA to make a real stab at that. 

 

On the second point, I'm not really sure where to take the discussion.  The Twins for years had some hugely underrated players.  Neyer selected Koskie as his most underrated player of the 2000s.  Radke is easily the most underrated pitcher of that time, as well.  My guess is that most of the winning teams the Twins had would probably have more "underrated" types than "overrated" but I certainly haven't looked at all the rosters.

[HitInAPinch]

I haven't read it yet, but THANKS for the article.  I'm still trying to wrap my head around Sabermetrics.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm still inclined to think the flaw is usually more likely to be in WAR and not the market price a front office negotiates with players. But who knows.

[big dog]

re Adam Dunn, don't forget- chicks dig the long ball

[Kwak]

Homerun hitters have generally been overpaid relative to to the rest.  The selection of Dunn is (perhaps, misleading--he was used as a DH (zero defensive value) or 1B reduced defensive value compared to other positions.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

re Adam Dunn, don't forget- chicks dig the long ball

we already know that front office MEN dig the long ball, now we just need a woman GM to test that theory.

[Ncgo4]

Great article. Hard to feel bad for a marginal player who "only" made $50 million in a career because an equally marginal player made $100 million. I've always felt that a few players in each team (2 starting pitchers, 1 reliever and three great fielders/hitters) should make 90% of the team's salary with the rest of the team at league minimums. The thought of Joe Mauer making what he's making just makes me nuts. A 6' 5" player hitting .315 with 10 HR's and 80 RBI's at his salary is so disproportional to value it's insane.

 

Ryan saying we could contend this year shows how crazy things are. We probably don't have a starting pitcher that any team would want as a 1st, 2nd or 3rd starter. We don't have a single position player who could complete for a key starting position on a contending team. Methinks, perhaps, our Mr. Ryan has gotten into Rosario's herbs.

 

But I really believe Buxton, Sano, Berrios et al are the basis for our resurgence. Hey! I'm a baseball fan.

[jimmer]

. The thought of Joe Mauer making what he's making just makes me nuts. A 6' 5" player hitting .315 with 10 HR's and 80 RBI's at his salary is so disproportional to value it's insane.

 

 

He was worth over 20M in both 2012 and 2013..Even in his horrible 2014, he was worth over 10M. Perhaps it's just a lack of understanding what's valuable that leads you to look at a couple stats and be so disappointed in the player's salary.  There's plenty of ways to provide value other than HRs.

 

Did it drive you nuts when he was providing crazy value and getting paid WAS LESS than what he was worth or is it only when you see owners spending what you perceive to be too much that makes you nuts?

[jay]

We probably don't have a starting pitcher that half the teams would want as a 1st or 2nd or 3rd starter.

FTFY.

[KGB]

He was worth over 20M in both 2012 and 2013..Even in his horrible 2014, he was worth over 10M. Perhaps it's just a lack of understanding what's valuable that leads you to look at a couple stats and be so disappointed in the player's salary.  There's plenty of ways to provide value other than HRs.

 

Did it drive you nuts when he was providing crazy value and getting paid WAS LESS than what he was worth or is it only when you see owners spending what you perceive to be too much that makes you nuts?

And based on this analysis, the 2014 Twins team was worth 160 million for 90 losses. This valuation take a debatable WAR stat times the worst case salary rate of a free agent. It is a very overstated calculation.

[Mike Sixel]

Except not every player is a FA......that is the cost to buy that talent, on the market. Just look at the signings for FAs, and that is the cost to buy that much talent. No one, ever, has said you'd build an entire team that way. Taken out of context, it looks absurd. Used to understand what it would cost to buy that much talent, well, that's what it is for.......not what you did with it.

[KGB]

Except not every player is a FA......that is the cost to buy that talent, on the market. Just look at the signings for FAs, and that is the cost to buy that much talent. No one, ever, has said you'd build an entire team that way. Taken out of context, it looks absurd. Used to understand what it would cost to buy that much talent, well, that's what it is for.......not what you did with it.

Yes, it is an evaluation of what it would cost to get WAR in a free agent market, so using it to evaluate the value of a player each year is absurd.  Players have pre-arbitration value, arbitration value and then a free agency value.  Free agency value is then determined by many factors.  So using one number to value all players so absurd, which is my point.

[jimmer]

Yes, it is an evaluation of what it would cost to get WAR in a free agent market, so using it to evaluate the value of a player each year is absurd.  Players have pre-arbitration value, arbitration value and then a free agency value.  Free agency value is then determined by many factors.  So using one number to value all players so absurd, which is my point.

Actually it's your lack of understanding that is absurd. Mauer's contract extended to what would have been his free agent years. The high priced years that were the point of contention are what would have been free agent years.

 

So looking at what what he produced in WAR and then looking at what the average cost of one WAR was worth on the free agent market during those years makes sense.  Sorry you can't see that.

[KGB]

Actually it's your lack of understanding that is absurd. Mauer's contract extended to what would have been his free agent years. The high priced years that were the point of contention are what would have been free agent years.

 

So looking at what what he produced in WAR and then looking at what the average cost of one WAR was worth on the free agent market during those years makes sense.  Sorry you can't see that.

Your evaluation based on free agency price for all players overstates all players.  In 2014, the total MLB salaries was about $3.2 billion.  The method you are using pushes the MLB total to $5.5 billion. Calling my understand absurd don't change the numbers.  And saying a number is good on an individual player is accurate and absurd when placing that same number in total to the team seems a little strange.

 

But if you saw a $10 million dollar player in Joe Mauer last year - God Bless You

[Twins Twerp]

Great article. Hard to feel bad for a marginal player who "only" made $50 million in a career because an equally marginal player made $100 million. I've always felt that a few players in each team (2 starting pitchers, 1 reliever and three great fielders/hitters) should make 90% of the team's salary with the rest of the team at league minimums. The thought of Joe Mauer making what he's making just makes me nuts. A 6' 5" player hitting .315 with 10 HR's and 80 RBI's at his salary is so disproportional to value it's insane.

Ryan saying we could contend this year shows how crazy things are. We probably don't have a starting pitcher that any team would want as a 1st, 2nd or 3rd starter. We don't have a single position player who could complete for a key starting position on a contending team. Methinks, perhaps, our Mr. Ryan has gotten into Rosario's herbs.

But I really believe Buxton, Sano, Berrios et al are the basis for our resurgence. Hey! I'm a baseball fan.

 

I use these story problems with my junior high math kids all the time. Monday I am going to use this one to start the class. I will ask what information regarding Mr. mauer is irrelevant. The answer: all of it. You see, it is a trick question because people who understand baseball understand that rbi is a bad stat to use to assess what you call value. Also, you fail to show obp which is what Mr. Mauer does best. Imwonder where you were when Mauer was coming off an MVP season, in the middle of the Twins best division title runs, and with the opening of a new stadium. If Mauer would have hit the free agent market he would have approached 30 mil a year (red sox might have topped 30).

 

 

Also, If Phil Hughes was a number 4 on a team, that team might just have the best rotation of this century.

[ken]

I love how these boards always end up back on Mauer. 

 

With the new stats you can multiple 2 imperfect number together and get an undisputable number. And adding up numbers is considered absurd.    Must be the "new math" my kids talk about.

[ashbury]

"I do have one regret I finished with 18 homeruns really wanted to get 20 so if any team wants to sign me for 3yrs that should be enough time"

 

Good one, Monsieur Pierre.

[ashbury]

I'm still inclined to think the flaw is usually more likely to be in WAR and not the market price a front office negotiates with players. But who knows.

Salary ultimately derives as much from an assessment of higher attendance, as from wins added. Chicks being known to dig the long ball, and all that. Neither attribute can be known very closely, of course - despite WAR being published to a tenth of a win usually.