What If Plouffe and Sano Both Excel?

[Thrylos]

Plouffe plays for a team in flyover country.  We don't get no respect!   The GMs will show more respect at the trading deadline than the eastern media.

 

I think that the 99+96+96+92 has lots more to do with respect than the flyover country part....  And, yes, 99+96+96+92 teams do not deserve respect, they deserve nuking and rearranging.

[Halsey Hall]

Not to worry about this question as Plouffe won't excel.  A better question would have been what if both fizzle. 

[Captain Nifty]

I think this will be one of the more fascinating developments over the next 1-2 years. Just a couple thoughts:

 

 - I don't know where the idea that Plouffe could be moved to an OF corner or would become a Super Utility player comes from. It took a long time for him to become a competent fielder at any position and he at least appears to be far too limited in terms of foot speed to be an outfielder and as an an athlete to move around the diamond as suggested. 

 - Under this dream scenario where they're both performing and assuming my first observation is ignored, Plouffe would seem to be far more valuable as a trade asset than as a minus defender outfielder or utility bat. I read some blogs over the winter lining up the Twins and Giants as a great match for a Plouffe for Andrew Susac trade. Plouffe fills the Giants need for a long-term 3B after the Sandoval departure and clears the way for the Twins eventual uber prospect promotion. Susac is obviously blocked by the best catcher in the game and fills a need for the Twins. 

 - Suppose the trade above or something similar happens and Sano struggles a bit defensively or overall for that matter, what would be so wrong with moving Escobar over to 3B with Nunez backing him up until he's ready? 

[Thrylos]

 

 what would be so wrong with moving Escobar over to 3B with Nunez backing him up until he's ready? 

 

Let me count the ways:

 

a. it is Escobar's worst defensive position

b. Escobar is too short, so catchable line drives become doubles and triples down the line.

 

[Captain Nifty]

Let me count the ways:

 

a. it is Escobar's worst defensive position

b. Escobar is too short, so catchable line drives become doubles and triples down the line.

 

Well then move Mauer over to 3B and have Sano take his place at 1B 

[tobi0040]

I think this will be one of the more fascinating developments over the next 1-2 years. Just a couple thoughts:

 

 - I don't know where the idea that Plouffe could be moved to an OF corner or would become a Super Utility player comes from. It took a long time for him to become a competent fielder at any position and he at least appears to be far too limited in terms of foot speed to be an outfielder and as an an athlete to move around the diamond as suggested. 

 - Under this dream scenario where they're both performing and assuming my first observation is ignored, Plouffe would seem to be far more valuable as a trade asset than as a minus defender outfielder or utility bat. I read some blogs over the winter lining up the Twins and Giants as a great match for a Plouffe for Andrew Susac trade. Plouffe fills the Giants need for a long-term 3B after the Sandoval departure and clears the way for the Twins eventual uber prospect promotion. Susac is obviously blocked by the best catcher in the game and fills a need for the Twins. 

 - Suppose the trade above or something similar happens and Sano struggles a bit defensively or overall for that matter, what would be so wrong with moving Escobar over to 3B with Nunez backing him up until he's ready? 

 

I agree that he would probably have more trade value.  But I am way more bullish as Plouffe has a super utility guy than you.

 

For starters, he was drafted as a short stop.  So I think from a versatilty standpoint he could play about anywhere. He actually has.  340 games at 3B.  3 at 1B, 19 at 2B.   53 at SS.  23 in RF.  

 

Secondly, the guys career OPS against lefties is .823.  So those would be great days to give someone like Arcia the day off. 

 

Lastly, without a guy like that around, when Sano or Mauer goes down all the sudden you get 80-100 games out of a guy like Escobar.  Or the year we had Punto play the whole year at 3B. Mauer has missed a ton of time at 1B.  Plouffe > Parmelee. 

[James]

I think people generally agree the Twins would be able to deal Plouffe (and in the scenario where he is playing well, for quite a bit). The question is what happens if the Twins are not yet certain whether Sano can stick at third, and so it is risky to trade Plouffe until we know how Sano will do at 3rd.

I agree with you on this.  If Sano can't handle 3B, well then they will move him some place else.  There seem to be some mixed scouting reports on this, but most of the reports that I've seen in the past few years seem to lean more towards Sano being able to stick at 3B.  We'll have to see what the TJ surgery does, but other position players that have had it didn't really seem to have a problem throwing.  

 

To be honest, Sano could probably be a little worse than Plouffe on defense and it would still be worth keeping Sano there.  I like Plouffe, but let's be realistic here, it's not like we'd be giving up gold glove defense for someone with Miguel Cabrera type 3B defense.  We're talking about average defense vs probably slightly below average defense.  

 

Plouffe could have a ton of trade value this year around July.  There are teams looking for even an average 3B, and the fact that he still has 3 years of team control makes him even more valuable.  Once again, we really only need to worry about this if everything goes right. 

[Halsey Hall]

I also don't think Plouffe worth be worth a grain of salt anywhere else.  There's many better options in the other positions than him.  I just don't get the love for him as utilitary, where does that come from?  It makes no sense if you've been watching him.  I'd rather have Escobar at 3rd, he's not that much shorter than Plouffe, is alot quicker, and has been working at third this spring.  Just this morning he and Santana were the only two on the half field, fielding balls at both 3rd and 2nd. 

 

I also will never understand the dislike for Punto.  He was the best athelete on the team and made plays not a soul has been able to do since, just makes no sense to me.

[Thrylos]

 

I also will never understand the dislike for Punto. He was the best athelete on the team and made plays not a soul has been able to do since, just makes no sense to me.

It was dislike for Gardhenhire who had a guy hitting .210/.291/.271 as his starting third baseman day in day out. Those are not major league starting numbers (esp. at third) regardless the glove. See: Florimon, Pedro. Punto could not help being himself and he gave it all. He was just not starting third baseman material.

[tobi0040]

I also don't think Plouffe worth be worth a grain of salt anywhere else.  There's many better options in the other positions than him.  I just don't get the love for him as utilitary, where does that come from?  It makes no sense if you've been watching him.  I'd rather have Escobar at 3rd, he's not that much shorter than Plouffe, is alot quicker, and has been working at third this spring.  Just this morning he and Santana were the only two on the half field, fielding balls at both 3rd and 2nd. 

 

I also will never understand the dislike for Punto.  He was the best athelete on the team and made plays not a soul has been able to do since, just makes no sense to me.

 

I am really baffled by two assertions here.

 

How is a 3.5 WAR at possibly the weakest or second weakest position in MLB not have value?  His WAR according to fangraphs was almost more than David Wright and Aramas Ramirez combined. More than Sandoval who just got a 95M deal.

 

Escobar has a career .666 OPS.  Even last year in BABIP fueled breakthrough for him he was 30 basis points behind Plouffe. Nothing in his past suggests we can expect anything like even that .720 in the future.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

[strumdatjaguar]

Unfortunately, the Giants probably wouldn't trade Susac, because they apparently want him to catch and to move Buster Posey to a better position to get more at-bats (probably because that worked so well for Joe Mauer)

[Halsey Hall]

I am really baffled by two assertions here.

 

How is a 3.5 WAR at possibly the weakest or second weakest position in MLB not have value?  His WAR according to fangraphs was almost more than David Wright and Aramas Ramirez combined. More than Sandoval who just got a 95M deal.

 

Escobar has a career .666 OPS.  Even last year in BABIP fueled breakthrough for him he was 30 basis points behind Plouffe. Nothing in his past suggests we can expect anything like even that .720 in the future.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

I could care less about your WAR, bKz, XYZ,  etc.  If some other team thinks the "luckiest man in the world" has value, trade him. 

[Boom Boom]

But the only reason that situation would arise would probably be if they were not sure about Sano's future at 3rd, in which case they would want to get him reps at third to make that deterimination. If they are sure about Sano at third, they trade Plouffe.

Or maybe Sano comes up and they're not 100% certain he'll never spend another day in the minors.

 

This is the team that called up a shortstop last year and had him play center field because their shortstop wasn't the problem.

[DJL44]

MLB Trade Rumors look at upcoming free agents

 

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre (38)
Daniel Descalso (30)
Martin Prado (33)
Justin Turner (32)
Luis Valbuena (31)

 

---------

 

Prado and Beltre will be in demand at the deadline if the Marlins and Rangers are out of it. Valbuena might be dropped for Bryant too. Plouffe will have a bunch of interest this offseason after those two sign. None of those guys are the kind of player you want to lock up multiyear at their talent level and age.

[DJL44]

Sorry, that's the following offseason. This offseason is even worse

 

Joaquin Arias (31)
Mike Aviles (35)
Gordon Beckham (29)
Willie Bloomquist (38)
Kevin Frandsen (34)
David Freese (33)
Jonathan Herrera (31)
Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Don Kelly (36)
Jeff Keppinger (36)
Casey McGehee (32)
Aramis Ramirez (38) *retiring*
Sean Rodriguez (31)
Juan Uribe (37)

[Willihammer]

I think I'd rather stick Plouffe back at SS than the outfield. I can't imagine Plouffe would be any better than Colabello in the outfield.

 

If both players excel (including 3B defense), then they have to look at a trade of Sano too. In this market, they could get a fair haul. That wasn't always the case but I believe it is now. Beats wasting Sano in AAA another year or waiting til he hurts himself, plays himself off of 3B, has a TJS setback, gets fat, etc.

[tobi0040]

I could care less about your WAR, bKz, XYZ,  etc.  If some other team thinks the "luckiest man in the world" has value, trade him. 

 

Yeah, the amount of wins a player adds should not be a consideration here

[Platoon]

 

 

I think people generally agree the Twins would be able to deal Plouffe (and in the scenario where he is playing well, for quite a bit). The question is what happens if the Twins are not yet certain whether Sano can stick at third, and so it is risky to trade Plouffe until we know how Sano will do at 3rd.

  

 

If both are playing well and both are active on the 25-man at any point, I'm pretty sure they will have Sano play a different position and keep Plouffe at third.

Several thoughts! If Sano can eventually stick at 3rd, that's where his value lies obviously. He is likely not going to be a "better" defensive third baseman than Plouffe when he gets here, so someone is going to have to decide whether the upside is there. I can't see that happening before the Plouffe decision is made. So where does Plouffe have more value? As a trade chip to restock the larders in the minors, or as yet again another converted infielder that is roaming around the outfield aimlessly? If the Twins bring up Sano, and stick him in the OF to learn at this level, then I would think it would be time to start questioning the decision makers.

[Platoon]

I think that the 99+96+96+92 has lots more to do with respect than the flyover country part....  And, yes, 99+96+96+92 teams do not deserve respect, they deserve nuking and rearranging.

. Because the Twins are not going to be contenders this year, I would use service time in my decision as to when to start the "nuking"! And then, barring injuries, it would be time to start restructuring. Sooner or later you have to make a move. You just do not lose that many games for that long with irreplaceable players!

[jay]

I hereby nominate Trevor Plouffe for the title of most underrated Twin.

[Thrylos]

Escobar has a career .666 OPS.  Even last year in BABIP fueled breakthrough for him he was 30 basis points behind Plouffe. Nothing in his past suggests we can expect anything like even that .720 in the future.

 

Sure that BABIP does.  Last season in the majors is was .336.  2013 in AAA was .373.  At some point, young players "get it."  That's what Escobar did in AAA in 2013 and translated in the majors in 2014.  And the writing was in the wall.  No surprise at all, at least to some of us.  If anything, based on his BABIP, he can improve even further.

 

Now don't speak lowly of that career .666 OPS.  There are Hall of Famers with that exact OPS

[dxpavelka]

Yeah, I think when Sano comes up, Plouffe can be moved to LF, RF, DH or 1B if we decide to keep him.  Ideally, those 4 positions are locked down and we get the great problem of too much talent.  But if he's playing well, he'll be worth a lot on the market anyway.

 

I don't think the Twins are going to trade Sano to keep Plouffe, for a variety of reasons.

I'd love to have a guy who could start 1 game a week each at LF, RF, DH, 1B & 3B.

[jay]

Sooner or later you have to make a move. You just do not lose that many games for that long with irreplaceable players!

Seeing as the only guys left from 2011 are Mauer, Plouffe and Duensing (FA after this year), I'm not really sure what that means.

[scottz]

My thoughts on all of the above:

 

1) Plouffe has become a perfectly fine 3B to have on our squad, but he hasn't shown himself to be All-Star quality, or power-hitter quality, or other top-tier metric quality. He's a decent 3B. He's a bit like Cuddyer, with less power and less ability to hit for BA. We should probably define what "excel" means for Plouffe - to me, if he hit .275 with 20 HR (65 total extra base hits), that would be a phenomenal season for him. I don't expect that, but that kind of season would fit "excel" for my definition. However, he has cracked the 20 HR mark only once at any level, and his career BA is .245 (trending upward, granted), so hitting .260 with 15 HR (60 total extra base hits) would still be a nice year - his best as a pro. But even at that, he's more like Lonnie Chisenhall than Adrian Beltre.

 

2) Plouffe likely has the ability to play OF for short periods of time, simply based on the fact that he has played parts of 30 games in the OF in his major league career. The same could be said for SS (55 career games), 2B (23), or 1B (6). But he shouldn't be thought of as anything other than a very short-term fill in at those positions, in my opinion. Again, kind of like Cuddyer, who "can" play 3B or even 2B for short periods. But Cuddyer doesn't generally play those positions much because he is generally thought of as a RF'er. Plouffe should be generally thought of as a 3B.

 

3) Sano is likely going to take a little time to a.) shake the rust off, and b.) adjust to the next level of pitching. Will he shake it off and adjust in time to "excel" (trending towards .300 and on pace for 30 HR and 70 extra base hits, my definition) before the trade deadline? I don't know. But my guess is we don't see Sano before September, and that this conversation is more likely to be 2015 Hot Stove than 2015 Trade Deadline.

[tobi0040]

I hereby nominate Trevor Plouffe for the title of most underrated Twin.

 

I think he gets first, second, and third.  Just dump the guy, we have Escobar!

[Halsey Hall]

I think he gets first, second, and third.  Just dump the guy, we have Escobar!

First, second and third overrated, except by his familly. 

[tobi0040]

First, second and third overrated, except by his familly. 

 

Start with 50 wins that most AAA clubs would be capable of.  If you had a guy with Plouffe's 2014 value at every position, you have 81.5 wins (31.5 for 9 Plouffes + 50).  Add Phil Hughes from last year (6.1) and you have a team that could win the AL central next year with 88 wins.  Literally 9 of the guys you think we could replace with Eduardo Escobar, Phil Hughes, and 11 other replacement level pitchers and bench.

 

His WAR would have been 3rd on the team that won the world series.

[JB_Iowa]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/houston-astros-may-have-a-problem-too-many-good-players-marisnick-singleton-gattis-rasmus-030215

 

Rosenthal has a take on the Astros situation that is not unlike the situation the Twins could face.

 

He mentions that these things have a way of working themselves out usually through injury.

 

But it is kind of interesting to think about some of the parallels between the Twins and the Astros.

[tobi0040]

Sure that BABIP does.  Last season in the majors is was .336.  2013 in AAA was .373.  At some point, young players "get it."  That's what Escobar did in AAA in 2013 and translated in the majors in 2014.  And the writing was in the wall.  No surprise at all, at least to some of us.  If anything, based on his BABIP, he can improve even further.

 

Now don't speak lowly of that career .666 OPS.  There are Hall of Famers with that exact OPS

 

Are we sure those 43 games at AAA in 2013 and 133 in 2014 are the real representation of Eduardo Escobar?

 

Given that in between the two he went down to the Dominican and hit .254 with a .729 OPS in 55 games.  He was about 10th on that team that I have literally not heard of a single player.

 

And in 2014 everything dropped for him early.  He had 16 XBH in 37 games in April and May.  .400 BABIP in April and .406 in May.  Then he had 27 XBH in the remaining 91 games.

 

I think it is a tad premature to say he clicked and this is the guy he will be.

[jimmer]

Are we sure those 43 games at AAA in 2013 and 133 in 2014 are the real representation of Eduardo Escobar?

 

Given that in between the two he went down to the Dominican and hit .254 with a .729 OPS in 55 games.  He was about 10th on that team that I have literally not heard of a single player.

 

And in 2014 everything dropped for him early.  He had 16 XBH in 37 games in April and May.  .400 BABIP in April and .406 in May.  Then he had 27 XBH in the remaining 91 games.

 

I think it is a tad premature to say he clicked and this is the guy he will be.

I couldn't agree more.