BA Top 100 (5 Twins, no Stewart)

[PseudoSABR]

Baseball America released their lauded prospect list today.

 

 2) Buxton

13) Sano

36) Berrios

61) Nick Gordon

62) Alex Meyer

 

Interesting to see the range of evaluation in this year's prospect lists.

[Seth Stohs]

Definitely surprising to not see Kohl Stewart on this list, especially when he's as high as 27 overall on one list somewhere. 

[h2oface]

On February 4 (revised list), when they released each teams top tens ....... the Twins looked like this:

 

1.  Bryon Buxton

2.  Miguel Sano

3.  Jose Berrios

4.  Kohl Stewart

5.  Alex Meyer

6.  Nick Gordon

7.  Nick Burdi

8.  Jorge Polanco

9.  Trevor May

10. Eddie Rosario

 

Interesteing that Stewart doesn't make the top 100 when BA rated him higher than Meyer and Gordon for the team.  Seems they are contradicting themselves.

[nytwinsfan]

"Indians outfielder Clint Frazier and Twins righthander Kohl Stewart both just missed because too many scouts who saw them this year were a little disappointed with how these 2013 first-round picks looked in their full-season debuts."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-missed-top-100/

 

"Also, Rays catcher Justin O’Conner (great arm, but still has work to do at the plate), Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco (how much impact will he make?), Padres catcher Austin Hedges (exceptional defense, but the bat has stagnated) and White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson (needs to show his speed has returned after hamstring issues) also ended up just on the outside looking in."

 

Note, they clarify that both Stewart and Polanco were in the next 15 that just missed.

[twinsfanstreif]

Not having Stewart on this list is suspect and it makes no sense, here are just a few guys that did make the list who had considerably worse years than Stewart and don't even have the potential that Stewart has either: Reese McGuire (was barely over .300 OBP at single A, drafted same time as Stewart and struggled way worse in his first year), Kyle Zimmer (pitched 4 innings all year), Jeff Hoffman (got TJ, hasn't even pitched outside of college), Erick Freede (also hasn't pitched outside college), Sean Newcomb (struggled after being drafted in low A as a 21 y/o), Touki Toussaint (also struggled after being drafted, 2.250 WHIP in rk ball), Joe Ross (extremely pedestrian numbers in A-AA). Again that's just a few. Most scouting sites agree that Stewart is usually a top 50 prospect but BA vaguely says "many scouts were disappointed," it just doesn't add up to me

[h2oface]

For that matter, both Buxton and Sano had considerably worse years.  Stewart really didn't show much last year, though. I agree with them there.

[h2oface]

On February 4 (revised list), when they released each teams top tens ....... the Twins looked like this:

 

1.  Bryon Buxton

2.  Miguel Sano

3.  Jose Berrios

4.  Kohl Stewart

5.  Alex Meyer

6.  Nick Gordon

7.  Nick Burdi

8.  Jorge Polanco

9.  Trevor May

10. Eddie Rosario

 

Interesteing that Stewart doesn't make the top 100 when BA rated him higher than Meyer and Gordon for the team.  Seems they are contradicting themselves.

They flipped Meyer and Gordon, too. 

[nater79a]

Re: Kohl Stewart. Perhaps the umpires in the Midwest League were asked to provide their input for the rankings..

[twinsfanstreif]

For that matter, both Buxton and Sano had considerably worse years.  Stewart really didn't show much last year, though. I agree with them there.

But Buxton and Sano have considerably higher ceilings than those that I listed and have shown great years in the past. Several of the guys I listed were recent draft picks who weren't even top 10 picks who didn't show much if anything in the debut, McGuire wasn't a high pick and has shown so far that he will most likely be a replacement level defensive minded catcher, if that, Ross hasn't ever really shown much to be considered a top prospect and he looks to be a #4 or 5 starter at best, Zimmer is the only one who was a high pick and has been a top prospect in the past but he struggled at A+ in 2013 and got hurt last year, other than that he's really only shown flashes here and there. Buxton and Sano are in completely different categories

[nicksaviking]

On February 4 (revised list), when they released each teams top tens ....... the Twins looked like this:

 

1.  Bryon Buxton

2.  Miguel Sano

3.  Jose Berrios

4.  Kohl Stewart

5.  Alex Meyer

6.  Nick Gordon

7.  Nick Burdi

8.  Jorge Polanco

9.  Trevor May

10. Eddie Rosario

 

Interesteing that Stewart doesn't make the top 100 when BA rated him higher than Meyer and Gordon for the team.  Seems they are contradicting themselves.

They must have just recently jumped on the neuroscouting bandwagon. Rumor is that Stewart is terrible at RBI baseball on Nintendo.

[Shane Wahl]

Building a composite of all the lists should probably be done for the full picture. This is an outlier, for sure, but that is interesting as well. I don't regard Stewart to be quite as awesome as many around here, but he still is a top 6 Twins prospect (even this BA list confirms that, ultimately). 

[Secondary User]

So wait a second.  Stewart throws a 2.59 ERA in his first full professional season when it's common knowledge he's focusing on fastball command and throwing his slider, his best strikeout pitch, minimally, and he didn't show anything?

[Shane Wahl]

So wait a second.  Stewart throws a 2.59 ERA in his first full professional season when it's common knowledge he's focusing on fastball command and throwing his slider, his best strikeout pitch, minimally, and he didn't show anything?

 

The evidence suggests, actually, that BA did some serious under preparation for this. Looking at a lot of 70-100, it is ridiculous that Stewart is not there (at least, of course). I think BA just dropped the ball. 

[twinsbaby]

BA do a good job on this suitation. Kohl Stewart is an overrated player in '13 draft. NO stuff, NO command, straight fastball, can't miss bats, ugly stats. Again, he is a suspect not a prospect.

[bird]

BA do a good job on this suitation. Kohl Stewart is an overrated player in '13 draft. NO stuff, NO command, straight fastball, can't miss bats, ugly stats. Again, he is a suspect not a prospect.

 

Wait a minute, are you mixing up Cole Nelson and Kohl Stewart?

 

You're the very first draft expert I've heard describe Stewart as an overreach in the draft. And I don't recall hearing a single report on his performance last season that even remotely resembles yours. Sure you didn't just see him ( or Cole ) on a bad day?

[beckmt]

Steward was working on different stuff.  Fastball is not his out pitch the slider is and Twins wanted the slider limited to work on other offerings.  BA only looked at results and what he was using.  This could easily change this year.  Still seams like a drop on their part.

[Seth Stohs]

They flipped Meyer and Gordon, too. 

 

Remember that Mike Berardino did the Twins list, and they have a group of others that determine the overall Top 100. They don't have to match... though it would make more sense if it did. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Isn't it pretty unusual for a top prospect to make a full season debut with that low of a K rate? Not sure if he deserves much benefit of the doubt yet -- he was a high school draftee, so he was basically all projection. First full season results matter, and guys do not get high rankings based on low-A H/9 rate alone.

[nytwinsfan]

I keep hearing conflicting things about whether, and if so, why, Stewart hasn't been using his slider. (1) Do we know definitively that he really was not using it, or intentionally using it sparingly, or has this been determined to be just a rumor? (2) If he was using it less often, do we know why? Was it to focus on other pitches, was it to reduce the chance of injury, or was it because it wasn't very good (which would contradict everything else I've heard about it).  People are constantly citing the non-use of the slider as a reason for low strikeouts, but I've also heard others say it is untrue or overstated.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, they ranked Stewart 52 last year.

 

I don't think a 101-115 ranking is that crazy for him, at this point. And I don't know if such a ranking is materially different than, say, an 80.

[zenser]

If Meyer, Sano, Buxton, and Berrios all debut this year, will they all hit free agency in the same year as well?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I keep hearing conflicting things about whether, and if so, why, Stewart hasn't been using his slider. (1) Do we know definitively that he really was not using it, or intentionally using it sparingly, or has this been determined to be just a rumor? (2) If he was using it less often, do we know why? Was it to focus on other pitches, was it to reduce the chance of injury, or was it because it wasn't very good (which would contradict everything else I've heard about it). People are constantly citing the non-use of the slider as a reason for low strikeouts, but I've also heard others say it is untrue or overstated.

Whatever anyone says, I would be very skeptical that someone with a great slider simply wouldn't use it in his first full year as a pro. It's not a video game item that he can save for later-- it is a very integral part of his potential success as a pro, and nobody has even seen how it plays in a game yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Meyer, Sano, Buxton, and Berrios all debut this year, will they all hit free agency in the same year as well?

That would be a good problem to have!

 

Depending on the nature of their debuts, some of them may return to AAA to begin 2016 which could push their clock back.

[Seth Stohs]

I keep hearing conflicting things about whether, and if so, why, Stewart hasn't been using his slider. (1) Do we know definitively that he really was not using it, or intentionally using it sparingly, or has this been determined to be just a rumor? (2) If he was using it less often, do we know why? Was it to focus on other pitches, was it to reduce the chance of injury, or was it because it wasn't very good (which would contradict everything else I've heard about it).  People are constantly citing the non-use of the slider as a reason for low strikeouts, but I've also heard others say it is untrue or overstated.

 

 

It's been written many times at TD that he used his slider in 2014. It was used sparingly, but it was used. 

 

It was because of all those reasons. He was 19, don't want him using it all the time, and do need him to have the other pitches. 

[jokin]

They must have just recently jumped on the neuroscouting bandwagon. Rumor is that Stewart is terrible at RBI baseball on Nintendo.

 

And he probably also disappointed the scouts by scoring much better at Madden NFL 15?

[Steve Lein]

For that matter, both Buxton and Sano had considerably worse years.  Stewart really didn't show much last year, though. I agree with them there.

 

He didn't show anything?! A 2.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while using his best out pitch sparingly?! That tells me nobody was squaring him up... And frankly, I think he was better (by a good amount) than Berrios was in the MWL at the same age...

 

I keep hearing conflicting things about whether, and if so, why, Stewart hasn't been using his slider. (1) Do we know definitively that he really was not using it, or intentionally using it sparingly, or has this been determined to be just a rumor? (2) If he was using it less often, do we know why? Was it to focus on other pitches, was it to reduce the chance of injury, or was it because it wasn't very good (which would contradict everything else I've heard about it).  People are constantly citing the non-use of the slider as a reason for low strikeouts, but I've also heard others say it is untrue or overstated.

 

He definitely wasn't using it much. I know Seth wrote an article where Stewart himself said he didn't throw a single one in the game discussed.

 

The idea, from what I've gathered, was because he was a HS draftee who didn't focus full time on baseball until being drafted. All the potential is there, but the best way to get him to reach that potential was focusing on the most important aspect of pitching, which is locating the fastball, as he hadn't actually spent a ton of time pitching to develop this based on his multi-sport background.

 

All the reports and profiles leading up to the draft praised the slider as his best strike-out pitch, and a swing-and-miss one at that (plus). I would think it's quite logical (and obvious) that he wouldn't rack up as many K's as expected if he was throwing 5 or less of them per game, or none at all.

[nytwinsfan]

He didn't show anything?! A 2.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while using his best out pitch sparingly?! That tells me nobody was squaring him up... And frankly, I think he was better (by a good amount) than Berrios was in the MWL at the same age...

 

 

He definitely wasn't using it much. I know Seth wrote an article where Stewart himself said he didn't throw a single one in the game discussed.

 

The idea, from what I've gathered, was because he was a HS draftee who didn't focus full time on baseball until being drafted. All the potential is there, but the best way to get him to reach that potential was focusing on the most important aspect of pitching, which is locating the fastball, as he hadn't actually spent a ton of time pitching to develop this based on his multi-sport background.

 

All the reports and profiles leading up to the draft praised the slider as his best strike-out pitch, and a swing-and-miss one at that (plus). I would think it's quite logical (and obvious) that he wouldn't rack up as many K's as expected if he was throwing 5 or less of them per game, or none at all.

 

Ok, thanks. If all of those factual predicates are indeed true, then I would expect his Ks to go up some in the future as he incorporates more of his non-fastball pitches, especially his slider, into his game.

[bird]

FWIW, they ranked Stewart 52 last year.

 

I don't think a 101-115 ranking is that crazy for him, at this point. And I don't know if such a ranking is materially different than, say, an 80.

The authors of BA's rankings agree and have said as much.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't worry that much about Stewart's ranking.  It would be better if he was higher but mlb.com, BP, fangraphs and Klaw all had him considerably higher. If Stewart is the guy they all (and we all) think, he'll be high up BA's list next year.  And remember that Callis, the man behind BA for 20 years, is now at mlb.com.

[gunnarthor]

Also, it looks like they had both Stewart and Polanco on their 15 that just missed, so that's 8 Twins mentioned.  Not bad. 

 

"Rays catcher Justin O’Conner (great arm, but still has work to do at the plate), Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco (how much impact will he make?), Padres catcher Austin Hedges (exceptional defense, but the bat has stagnated) and White Sox second baseman Micah Johnson (needs to show his speed has returned after hamstring issues) also ended up just on the outside looking in."