Article: Reasons For Hope

[ashbury]

If they were determined to bring Ryan back, I wish that he had brought in a "Special Assistant" that could bring an fresh viewpoint to the baseball operations.

A GM like Bill Smith has to rely on Special Assistants because he will freely admit to lacking deep fundamental insights. Someone like Terry Ryan, who has great self-confidence in his methods, might hire a Special Assistant and let him make decisions at the margins, but this Assistant will constantly get overruled on anything important like whether to draft Buxton versus a pitcher.

[jokin]

Here's the thing. It wouldn't have to be a wholesale change in the Twins management staff. But what was so disappointing in the return of Ryan and the hiring of Krivsky is that they both had so many ties to the staff already in place. And, Ryan almost has to be invested in the success or failure of the system that he and Tom Kelly developed.

 

It is often hard to take an unbiased look at your co-workers. You know their strengths and weaknesses but you also try to compensate for them (or you often overlook problems). At some point, it is helpful to have an objective eye in a position of authority reviewing things -- whether it be the on-field staff; the medical/training procedures; the minor league staff or other aspects.

 

If they were determined to bring Ryan back, I wish that he had brought in a "Special Assistant" that could bring an fresh viewpoint to the baseball operations. Until they do so, I fear that they will keep repeating the practices and procedures (and employing the same information) that led to the current situation. And that, I fear, will doom them to mediocrity.

 

I've enjoyed watching this last month of games where the Twins have played better ball but there hasn't been anything about their improvements that indicate to me that they are on an upward curve or that they have made adjustments from what they were doing that landed them in this mess.

 

Maybe not "wholesale changes" immediately, but there need to be major changes at the top- to examine each aspect of the club's operations, keeping the valuable assets and eliminating the dead weight. I don't necessarily have a problem with Krivsky coming back in some capacity, lots of connections, institutional memory, a slew of 'ol boy connections and a keen eye for talent. Here's a name associated with Krivsky who has had success, is highly qualified in the business background and baseball organizational sense, has been with a club that has built itself up on a shoestring budget and is fully versed in sabremetrics. His name, Matt Arnold, director of Pro Scouting with Tampa Bay. Worked with the Reds, so has a background with Krivsky. He may be ready for the big jump to GM. He certainly is far more qualified than Bill Smith ever was. He undoubtedly would need strong people around him. I'd suggest someone at "Special Assistant" who wouldn't represent a threat to Arnold. How about Charlie Manuel? His time with the Phillies has to be coming to a close, is an ex-Twin, and has come from a competely different successful culture in Philly. As head of Baseball Operatons or President, how about hiring the current MLB VP for baseball operations, Kim Ng? She has a midwest background (worked in strategic position with the White Sox), has a very sharp and savvy business and baseball mind (played softball at the University of Chicago where she degreed in public policy). The Twins have a bevy of ex-Twins floating around who appear to be willing to take on some of the field operations but are currently being blocked from consideration for higher profile positions. We all know who they are, hire them soon after the new management team is in place and has made a full and fair assessment of the situation.

[Nick Nelson]

Contending is a bad word.

This couldn't be further from the truth. Contending means giving the fans something to care about. It means higher attendance and more money to spend. It means having a chance to get on a hot streak in October. There's nothing bad about contending.

 

I see nothing from Ryan to indicate he will be any different than when he was in charge last time, so I also see little reason for hope. Until I see something different, I assume things have not changed.

Since taking over, Ryan has made two of the better free agent signings in the club's recent history (Willingham and Doumit) and snagged a high-end relief arm off the heap (Burton). I'd say he's done pretty well thus far. Cut him some slack; he inherited quite a mess from the Bill Smith era.

[one_eyed_jack]

I agree with the idea that there is reason for optimism because the team has some good things going, and a couple of good moves could have them competing for the division again.

 

However, I also agree with those who have expressed skepticism over the current management group's ability to identify those moves.

 

It sure seems as though a staleness has set over this organization, and I too would like to see some new blood from outside the organization. I'm not in the "everyone member of the front office and the coaching staff is an idiot" camp. In fact, I think TR and Gardy are good baseball guys, and I appreciate everything they did to help raise the Twins up from the ashes of the late 90's in the face of threatened contraction. Nor am I one who is quick to fire the coach or GM, which happens too often in pro sports not because it's the best move you can make, but the simplest.

 

But having the same people do the same jobs for too long is usually not a good idea, and sometimes you need to make change for change's sake.

[Mike Sixel]

The upper minors and lack of young players in the majors are on Ryan, not Smith. He was the GM when those guys that should be in the majors and at AAA were drafted, so laying it all on Smith is bogus, imo. As for the FA signings, agreed, those were good, but neither were big time, legit, starters that they were competing with others to sign. When they sign a big time FA starter for multiple years for big money, I'll believe they'll do it. When they trade a big time set of prospects for legit starters (Capps was not that), I'll believe it. He also went with Marquis, which was an awful lot like his previous signings. And, let's not forget, while it was the right decision, he let Cuddeyer go, and replaced him with a less expensive player. When they go out and add money and players, under Ryan, that are in their prime, for mulitple years, for big money, then I'll believe things have changed. Isn't that fair, seeing evidence of change, before believing change is real?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This couldn't be further from the truth. Contending means giving the fans something to care about. It means higher attendance and more money to spend. It means having a chance to get on a hot streak in October. There's nothing bad about contending.

 

I hate watching 3-and-done playoff series but I hate not making the playoffs more.

 

Since taking over, Ryan has made two of the better free agent signings in the club's recent history (Willingham and Doumit) and snagged a high-end relief arm off the heap (Burton). I'd say he's done pretty well thus far. Cut him some slack; he inherited quite a mess from the Bill Smith era.

 

JR was a mixed bag this offseason but overall, he did a pretty good job. The Capps signing was groan-worthy and the Carroll signing was meh. 38 year old MI don't impress me much, particularly when signed to multi-year deals. But he did a fantastic job with Burton, Willingham, and Doumit. Overall, he gets at least a B, probably a B+.

[gunnarthor]

Agreed.

 

I hope the FO doesn't have mediocrity as its main objective. HOPE being the key word..

Seriously, what has ever giving you the indication that anyone in the FO is aiming for "mediocrity?" Hell, Smith made more 'win-now' moves than any previous Twin GM. They've had a ton of success over the last decade and we've now had one and a half seasons of bad baseball and Ryan is rebuilding the team. We just drafted the highest ceiling prospect in the draft (and paid him the highest bonus in MLB this year). But you really think the FO is aiming for mediocrity.

[Guest USAFChief]

Excellent blog, Nick.

[Dilligaf69]

they have to make some trades for some starting pitching...but i don't think a full scale fire sale is needed...we'll see.

[Land Of 10,000 Beasts]

Thank you, Nick. Great article.

[peterb18]

JB-It appears you definitely have left the "glass half full" camp and are falling in amongst us in the "glass half empty and leaking rapidly" camp.

 

Welcome, I heart-wearily concur with your lack of optimism- the recent, pre-draft Strib "inside story" on the scouting department was the last nail in hope's coffin. This organization is suffering from a severe case of inbred paralysis of thought- run and staffed by yes men, beancounters and backslappers- and owned by a family that would rather make schlocky movies for tax write-offs and find novel new ways to squeeze the last drop of blood from a turnip- and the turnip truck it rode in on. If George Steinbrenner was the poster boy for an over-involved owner, surely the Pohlads are at the polar opposite- Ol' Carl would have been more thrilled to make a decent fortune on contraction than to winning a pennant . Surely there must be a potential local ownership group that could come in somewhere in-between the two extremes and make the necessary changes in this moribund club. This is a good-to-great baseball market and deserves better than the sclerotic status quo.

Agree with the above statement--

Terry Ryan knows what needs to be done. It is a matter of the Pohlads being willing to step up to the plate and sign some Free Agents(pitchers)---they, the family, chose to cut payroll after a 93 win season two seasons ago. Their history doesn't indicate an eagerness to take the next step. They probably are not even embarrassed by this team. A friend of mine just said," They field a triple AAA team, but charge major league prices".

[CDog]

they, the family, chose to cut payroll after a 93 win season two seasons ago. Their history doesn't indicate an eagerness to take the next step. They probably are not even embarrassed by this team. A friend of mine just said," They field a triple AAA team, but charge major league prices".

Payroll in 2011 was about $25M higher than 2010. I don't know why you keep saying it was lowered.

 

And your friend is not very original (or clever for that matter).

[gunnarthor]

And they won 94 games, not 93.